February CET

[osmposm]

.....Anyhow,what happened to the Jan CET thread - have the official figures come out yet? I'm guessing we ended up at 3.2 degrees but not confirmed.. also will Mr Data I think it is them who do the monthly round up be doing one again.. always enjoyed seeing where I was in the league last year..

The January CET thread has just slipped down to page three under the weight of snow, Damian! See here: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...t&p=1399441

The official figure's not in yet, no - and last month it unexpectedly took until the 9th January.

When the magic number is revealed I imagine the noble and hard-working Jackone (not Mr D, though he's always labouring to produce loads of other fascinating facts) will come up with his league table, as he did for December, the first month of the new monthly competition. See here: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...t&p=1420072

Edited February 3, 2009 by osmposm

[Stu_London]

Hadley CET to the 3rd February - +0.1C

GFS in the reliable timeframe would suggest a value of about 0.7C by the 11th

Below average, once again fairly long odds on even at this early stage.

Edited February 4, 2009 by Stu_London

[Optimus Prime]

Period 5th-10th averages +0.2 on the gfs run. Current CET is 0.3c to the 4th, will probably still be around 0.3c by the 10th.

The last 18 days would need to average 6.0c in order for 4.0c to be achieved. Whatever happens, this winter will be below average.

[Duncan McAlister]

I suppose it's reflective of how good this current spell of weather has been for most people that the CET is 4C below average for the first 4 days of Feb yet this thread is dead :lol:

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What's happened?

Hadley Centre pages have been replaced

The Met Office Hadley Centre web pages have been replaced. Here are some options to help you find where you want to go:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/fourofour/hadl...bsdata/cet.html

???

[LadyPakal]

This is still working:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Don't know what that's about.

[reef]

Hadley at 0.3C to the 4th. Already 4.9C required to reach the 1971-2000 average.

One interesting fact is the running average at present is higher than any other point in the month. The running mean to the 4th is actually 4.3C, but at month's end it is 3.8C (1961-90 of course).

[kold weather]

A lot rests on whether we either see milder stuff come back in like we saw after the 10th of Jan or whether we hold on to a colder airflow for a little while longer...

If we can hold it for a while longer yet then sub 3C really becomes a possible outcome, still a little soon yet to talk about that though as Jan proved.

[stewfox]

A lot rests on whether we either see milder stuff come back in like we saw after the 10th of Jan or whether we hold on to a colder airflow for a little while longer...

If we can hold it for a while longer yet then sub 3C really becomes a possible outcome, still a little soon yet to talk about that though as Jan proved.

Would it be fair to say the CET going to be about 0c at the 10th. Although if saturday night is as cold as some forcast , maybe the first 1/3rd of feb could be sub zero

I remember on my 21st birthday , 9th feb 1986 (a very cold month) loads of snow around then. Another repeat a 'few years' later

[Kentish Man]

Climate UK (Manley) has updated

CET: (Feb 1- 5): 0.4°C (-3.8 degC)

E&W Rain: (Feb 1- 5): 12.7mm (108 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Feb 1- 5): 10.8hr ( 94 per cent)

© Philip Eden

[stewfox]

I understand we are on for -6c to -8c tonight as well as saturday night in the CET zone

Surely this will put the CET at 0 or below

What we lack at present is some really cold nights

Any data on how feb 86 started ? That ended -1.1c

[Weather-history]

All 3 winter months have started off very cold

Dec:

1st - 5th 1.7 -4.0

Jan:

1st - 5th -0.4 -4.6

Feb:

1st- 5th 0.4 -3.8

[Weather-history]

If we can hold it for a while longer yet then sub 3C really becomes a possible outcome, still a little soon yet to talk about that though as Jan proved.

I think the sub 3C month just rings a very tiny bit hollow for me since we had a 50 day period which was sub 3C

And furthermore, assuming January is 3.3

29th November - 4th February CET: 3.1

[Nick H]

I think the sub 3C month just rings a very tiny bit hollow for me since we had a 50 day period which was sub 3C

It is quite legitimate imo to say we have had a sub 3C month.

A month is defined as

"A period extending from a date in one calendar month to the corresponding date in the following month".

or

"A unit of time corresponding approximately to one cycle of the moon's phases, or about 30 days or 4 weeks."

or

"One of the 12 divisions of a year as determined by a calendar, especially the Gregorian calendar. Also called calendar month."

Based on these definitions, those who say we haven't had a sub-3C month should stipulate that they are referring to a calendar month.

Edited February 6, 2009 by Nick H

[Snowly does it]

Stays at 0.3 to the 5th, yesterday coming in at 0.3. Probably a slight rise today as last night's minima was only just sub-zero, then dropping again for a couple of days.

From here, fractionally over 5 per day on average required to get back to the 71-00 average.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

No, it is legitimate to talk in calendar months.

As the climate gets colder the probability increases that a sub-3C cold spell will fall within a calendar month.

[Kentish Man]

Here is the February list:-

-1.6C: Snowstorm 1

-0.3C: Tricky Dicky

0.0C: Tundra

0.8C: Northern Rab

0.9C: North Sea Snow Convection

0.9C: Devon-Nelly

1.2C: The Eye in the Sky

1.3C: James M

1.3C: Wellington Boot

1.4C: Polar Side

1.5C: Matty M

1.7C: casparjack

1.8C: Barry

1.9C: Anti-Mild

1.9C: NaDamantaSam

1.9C: Polar Continental

1.9C: Timmead (+ 1day)

2.0C: Shunter

2.0C: Kentish Man

2.1C: Rollo

2.2C: beng

2.2C: snowplough (+ 1 day)

2.3C: Atlantic Flamethrower

2.4C: adamjones416

2.4C: damianslaw

2.4C: Gavin P

2.4C: The watcher

2.5C: memories of 63

2.5C: s4lancia

2.5C: stormchaser1

2.6C: snowyowl9

2.6C: nick2702

2.6C: sleety

2.7C: morfius

2.7C: Bobd29

2.7C: chionomaniac

2.7C: tcc

2.7C: Great Plum

2.7C: Glacier Point

2.8C: Dvdjojo

2.8C: Snowmaiden

2.8C: Tomb Raider Legend

2.8C: Bushy

2.8C: fozi999

2.8C: the musicland

2.9C: Russ L.F.C

2.9C: Shuggee

2.9C: Albion Snowman

2.9C: Stu London

2.9C: Mark H

2.9C: Steve Murr

3.0C: Norrance

3.0C: Blast from the Past

3.0C: Mulzy

3.0C: mk13 (+ 1 day)

3.1C: Steve B

3.1C: pjb120

3.1C: Mr Maunder

3.1C: Thundery Wintry Showers

3.2C: badboy657

3.2C: Potent Gust

3.2C: mark bayley

3.2C: stricklands 1984

3.2C: Lady Pakal

3.2C: JACKONE

3.3C: osmposm

3.3C: phil n.warks

3.3C: TomSE20 (+ 1 day)

3.4C: optimus prime

3.4C: Joneseye

3.4C: Terminal Moraine

3.4C: stewfox

3.4C: Tommyd1258 (+ 2 days)

3.5C: Polar Gael

3.5C: grab my graupels

3.5C: artic fox

3.5c: The Calm before...

3.5C: Megamoonflake

3.5C: mountain shadow

3.5C: bluearmy

3.6C: The Pit

3.6C: Mr Data

3.6C: eddie

3.6C: jemtom

3.6C: Sundog

3.6C: Paul T

3.7C: Don

3.7C: Rain Rain Rain

3.7C: Stratos ferric

3.7C: ukmoose

3.8C: Derby 4 Life

3.8C: kold weather

3.8C: ned

3.8C: acbrixton

3.8C: Timmy H

3.8C DR Hosking

3.9C: jimben

3.9C: Pete tattum

4.0C: Jack Wales

4.0C: davehsug

4.1C: Stargazer

4.1C: V for Very Cold

4.1C: Supercell

4.2C: Summer Blizzard

4.2C Snowsure

4.3C: High Ground Birmingham

4.4C: Reef

4.5C: Duncan McAlister

4.5C: tonyh

4.5C: West is Best

4.9C: Roger J Smith

5.2C: Mark Foster 630

5.4C: Paul B

7.1C: Mike W

7.1C: Snowingman

8.0C: Craig Evans

With such a large number of entries this month I cannot guarantee this list is 100% error or omission free. So please check your entry and leave a post below if there is a problem.

Edited February 6, 2009 by Kentish Man

[kold weather]

Well yep we have had a long period that has been below 3C but when we look back at the records way into the future we will still have Jan at 3.3C, not below 3C which statistically is a benchmark for recent winter.

Does look like next dew days will really drag the CET down yet further thanks to some very cold nights, daytime temps will be surpressed till Wednesday when colder nights will take over again...but for how long is something the models are very unsure about.

Looks like below average is odds on again but below 3C is still very uncertain right now!

[West is Best]

Any data on how feb 86 started ? That ended -1.1c

Feb 86 was a bitterly cold bone dry easterly until the final night when an incoming front brought snow. It was rather like the spell we had after Christmas this year - very cold but dry. It's a month I often go on about because almost no-one remembers it. The reason? It was so dry. It's a bit like this winter. Will people remember the week after Christmas or will they remember this week? No debate!

I'm not really sure where all this sub-3c thing has come from. Well ... it's Stratos bless him! But does it matter? What slightly concerns me is that even if we post a sub-3C calendar month a new set of goalposts will be erected, whereas perhaps it's just time to accept the fact that this is now one of the great winters like the olden days. The even larger teapot, at least this year, has been confined to the recycling bin.

[reef]

Feb 86 was a bitterly cold bone dry easterly until the final night when an incoming front brought snow. It was rather like the spell we had after Christmas this year - very cold but dry. It's a month I often go on about because almost no-one remembers it. The reason? It was so dry. It's a bit like this winter. Will people remember the week after Christmas or will they remember this week? No debate!

I'm not really sure where all this sub-3c thing has come from. Well ... it's Stratos bless him! But does it matter? What slightly concerns me is that even if we post a sub-3C calendar month a new set of goalposts will be erected, whereas perhaps it's just time to accept the fact that this is now one of the great winters like the olden days. The modern winter, at least this year, has been confined to the recycling bin.

The problem is, one winter does not make a trend. There were similar hints at the end of the 2005/06 winter that we might be in a new period of colder winters, but then 2006/07 came along. We are however in the coldest running 12 month period for over 10 years and look to have three consecutive below average seasons in the bag, so stranger things have happened.

This winter in the majority of locations (except here perhaps) is much better than 2005/06 though. I dont think it could be compared to 1995/96 however, as we just havent had the extreme cold or length of time without any mild that that winter managed. 1995/96 here for example saw only 6 out of 136 days reach double digits from 30th November to 13th April. So far this year from 20th November to present, 5 days have managed it out of 78 days.

Statistically, we're looking for a sub-2.5C February to even equal 1995/96 and thats a big ask. The fact that we have had a 50 day or so period averaging below 3C isnt really playing ball, as it contains two cold periods sandwiched by a milder one. You could similarly use two mild periods sandwiching the colder spell and come up with a higher value. I suspect that there are many periods in the past where a 31 day period spanning across months has come in with a low CET. The point is though, that to achieve a true sub-3C CET month requires uninterupted cold (or at least potent over the short term so that the milder period doesnt compensate), something that we havent quite achieved yet.

One thing is for sure though, this is the best chance we've had in years to actually breach that sub-3C month benchmark. If we dont achieve it now, in a winter so below average, then maybe it will be time to accept that outside of exceptional circumstances, the days of achieving such cold months are over (at least in the short-term).

[reef]

Hadley at 0.4C to the 6th.

5.2C required to hit the 1971-2000 average,

4.7C required to hit the 1961-1990 average,

3.6C required for the month to finish sub-3C,

2.8C required for this winter to be the coldest since 1985/86.

[Nick L]

Hadley at 0.4C to the 6th.

5.2C required to hit the 1971-2000 average,

4.7C required to hit the 1961-1990 average,

3.6C required for the month to finish sub-3C,

2.8C required for this winter to be the coldest since 1985/86.

Very low minima tonight should help drag that down a bit further.

[Optimus Prime]

Very low minima tonight should help drag that down a bit further.

Minima isn't the one keeping it down! Everyone seems to think minima is what makes a cold month, in relation to the average it's maxima that's keeping this month well below average;

Mean Maxima; 2.4c (-4.9c)

Mean Minima; -1.7c (-3.4c)

Minima probably won't drop much, maxima will likely rise slightly from todays value, maybe to 2.6c.

[Stu_London]

GFS in the reliable time frame to mid month now and shows a CET of around 1.4C being likely on the 14th. This does include two 0.5C rises on the 13th and 14th which are a bit questionable given the other models and their keenness to hang on the the cold.

Very difficult to call anything for the month end yet as very mild to slightly warm weather is possible towards the end of February much more so than the other winter months. I wouldn't want to rule out above average just yet, but below average is far more likely.

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Average here to the 7th -0.2C!