February CET

[Weather-history]

It is increasingly likely that we are not going to have any mild weather this first half of February

It is very highly likely it is going to be the coldest first half to February since at least 1996 [1.0] and possibly since 1991 [-1.5]

[Stu_London]

Hadley crept up to 0.5 to the 7th

[stewfox]

Minima isn't the one keeping it down! Everyone seems to think minima is what makes a cold month, in relation to the average it's maxima that's keeping this month well below average;

Mean Maxima; 2.4c (-4.9c)

Mean Minima; -1.7c (-3.4c)

Minima probably won't drop much, maxima will likely rise slightly from todays value, maybe to 2.6c.

Minima does make a cold month we just havent had that yet for feb as you suggest

Anyone got the detailed stats for feb 86 ?

[Snowly does it]

Minima does make a cold month we just havent had that yet for feb as you suggest

Anyone got the detailed stats for feb 86 ?

Feb 86 - every single minima for the month was sub-zero - the mildest night being -1.3 on the 16th

The highest maxima was 3.7 on the 28th

Truly an astonishing month.

This month looks the best chance we are likely to get to record a sub 3 month - it should be around 1 or so, possibly lower by Valentines and from there, remaining average would get us in comfortably below 3 - thats if this week goes to plan to start with!!

Last night was -3.3 for minima so today shouldn't see much of a rise if at all (although the SE appears to have recorded some higher temps than expected)

[kold weather]

below average looking just about odds on now if we are around 1c by mid month, indeed could the best chance of a sub 3c monthvthis decade.

[Duncan McAlister]

Judging by all the ops and in particular the GFS ensembles which are outstanding, I think by this time next week we could be contemplating a sub 2C month

There, that's put the mockers on a sub 3

[Snowyowl9]

Feb 86 was a bitterly cold bone dry easterly until the final night when an incoming front brought snow. It was rather like the spell we had after Christmas this year - very cold but dry. It's a month I often go on about because almost no-one remembers it. The reason? It was so dry. It's a bit like this winter. Will people remember the week after Christmas or will they remember this week? No debate!

The even larger teapot, at least this year, has been confined to the recycling bin.

Had snowcover here for 6 weeks longest I`ve ever seen in feb 86 started end of Jan with a channel low wet snow to start with 6 to 7 inches from that,then frequent light snowfall/blizzards, until early march,low ground had no lying snow for the first 2 weeks around here.

So far 1 week of snowcover feb 2009 :wacko:

Hadley at 0.4C to the 6th.

2.8C required for this winter to be the coldest since 1985/86.

Very interesting I went for 2.6c :o

[West is Best]

feb 86

TA Hartley has a very good assessment of Feb 86, with which I concur, here: http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1986_weather.htm

It was an astonishing month - so so cold but I remember vast swathes of central Britain being utterly bone dry - some places saw no precipitation all month. It made quite a contrast with 1984/5 which for me was much more memorable snow-wise.

Edited February 8, 2009 by West is Best

[reef]

TA Hartley has a very good assessment of Feb 86, with which I concur, here: http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1986_weather.htm

It was an astonishing month - so so cold but I remember vast swathes of central Britain being utterly bone dry - some places saw no precipitation all month. It made quite a contrast with 1985/6 which for me was much more memorable snow-wise.

It was exceptional. Even in the 80s it was nothing but.

Here we had a mean of -0.9C, a high max temperature of 3.8C, a record low temperature (which still stands now) of -12.1C, 4 ice days and 22 air frosts.

The following April was stonkingly cold aswell.

[kold weather]

2.8 is a reachable target at this stage, esp given the cold is likely to hold longer than it did in jan and that month was only 0.5c milder then that figure.

[Snowyowl9]

TA Hartley has a very good assessment of Feb 86, with which I concur, here: http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1986_weather.htm

It was an astonishing month - so so cold but I remember vast swathes of central Britain being utterly bone dry - some places saw no precipitation all month. It made quite a contrast with 1984/5 which for me was much more memorable snow-wise.

Yes indeed coldest feb since 1947,had frozen water pipes here from the bitter east winds.

Have to say our roads didn`t fill in with drifts quite like feb 1985 which goes as the best month for snow for me ever. :lol:

[Optimus Prime]

1986 was an outstandingly cold year. February, April, August and September were all close to the coldest of the 20th century. The only snow that really effected the south was in late February and early March. There's a forecast in youtube for that month;

Bill Giles predicted milder weather for the start of March, which never transpired.

To get a month as cold as February 1986, it requires some pretty extreme blocking, or some very cold spells allowing for a few days of milder weather. With the current CET around 0.5c, a sub freezing month isn't all that unlikely when taking into account the outlook.

[kold weather]

I'll be surprised if that happens op, whilst the outlook is cold it's not quite that exceptional looking! Still will be very interesting to see how low we can go...

[Gavin P]

1986 was an outstandingly cold year. February, April, August and September were all close to the coldest of the 20th century. The only snow that really effected the south was in late February and early March. There's a forecast in youtube for that month;

Bill Giles predicted milder weather for the start of March, which never transpired.

To get a month as cold as February 1986, it requires some pretty extreme blocking, or some very cold spells allowing for a few days of milder weather. With the current CET around 0.5c, a sub freezing month isn't all that unlikely when taking into account the outlook.

There was a heavy snowfall around here during February 1986. I think it was around Feb 11th. It gave several inches of snow, most of which hung around all month (all-be-it depleating bit by bit as snow does)

Edited February 8, 2009 by Gavin P

[stewfox]

There was a heavy snowfall around here during February 1986. I think it was around Feb 11th. It gave several inches of snow, most of which hung around all month (all-be-it depleating bit by bit as snow does)

There was snow on my 21st Birthday , feb 86 9th feb and I hope there will be snow tomorrow on my 'something' birthday

[Weather-history]

TA Hartley has a very good assessment of Feb 86, with which I concur, here: http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1986_weather.htm

It was an astonishing month - so so cold but I remember vast swathes of central Britain being utterly bone dry - some places saw no precipitation all month. It made quite a contrast with 1984/5 which for me was much more memorable snow-wise.

Number of days with falling sleet/snow for that month

Heathrow: 15

Bedford: 16

Valley: 10

Manchester: 21

Eskdalemuir: 25

There were frequent light snowfalls but heavier snowfalls were rare.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Remember, 0.9c is the figure to keep in mind for this month :lol:

The sub 3c 'month' has already been and gone - but then calender month rules get in the way I guess to keep a secular belief going! :lol:

[Weather-history]

I point out and assuming January has a CET of 3.3 then the CET for the period 29th November -7th February is 3.03

So we could end up with a substantial period of time that ends up below 3C in the very near future.

Everyone is looking at the calendar month sub 3C but a 10 week period that ends up below 3C?

Edited February 8, 2009 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

Very impressive indeed but if somehow this month fails the CET will not reflect that 10 week period in the monthly outcomes which is what everyone will look At in the future really...however I suspect that won't even be an issue anyway because I think there is more than a good chance it comes in below 3c.

[Don]

We had a fair bit of snow in my area in early February 1986. Don't know the depths, but there was certainly a good few inches of snow. However, after this we we had little more than flurries up until March 1st when we had another fall. Due to it being such a cold month though, it didn't completely thaw for the remainder of the month. I think the thawing that did occur was caused by the prolonged daytime sunshine.

Definately an exceptional month!

Edited February 9, 2009 by Don

[reef]

Remember, 0.9c is the figure to keep in mind for this month :lol:

The sub 3c 'month' has already been and gone - but then calender month rules get in the way I guess to keep a secular belief going! :lol:

The problem is, when you start picking periods out such as 31 days spanning a couple of months in an attempt to show how cold its been you could probably go back and pick another period out thats much colder.

The point is, regardless of what rolling 31 day means you use, we have warmed. Using the CET values for whole months might hide cold spells (and indeed sometimes mild), but it is a tried and tested benchmark. That we havent recorded a sub-3C month in so long is not simply due to bad luck, but rather due to a lack of cold now compared to in the past.

The fact that we have cold less often, for less time and when it arrives it is generally less potent, all serve to reduce the chances of a sub-3C month. It is certainly impressive that we have a 71 day period averaging 3.03C, but then you could take a cold winter like 1985/86 and pick a few weeks either side and say "we've had a 4 month period averaging x.xx" and it would probably be colder.

Basically, you cant compare a random dataset with complete months' data from the past.

Edited February 9, 2009 by reef

[Kentish Man]

Here's the latest update from Climate UK

E&W Temp: (Feb 1st-8th): 0.4°C (-3.8 degC)

E&W Rain: (Feb 1st-8th): 18.8mm (100 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Feb 1st-8th): 19.1hr (101 per cent)

© Philip Eden

The CET is still on 0.4C - the same as it was up to Feb 5th. Elsewhere the stats are remarkably average!

As regards Feb 1986 East Malling in Kent reported 14 days of snow falling but snow depths never exceeded 2cm. The heaviest single snowfall was in fact on March 1st which was also an ice day (maxima -0.2C).

Edited February 9, 2009 by Kentish Man

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The problem is, when you start picking periods out such as 31 days spanning a couple of months in an attempt to show how cold its been you could probably go back and pick another period out thats much colder.

The point is, regardless of what rolling 31 day means you use, we have warmed. Using the CET values for whole months might hide cold spells (and indeed sometimes mild), but it is a tried and tested benchmark. That we havent recorded a sub-3C month in so long is not simply due to bad luck, but rather due to a lack of cold now compared to in the past.

The fact that we have cold less often, for less time and when it arrives it is generally less potent, all serve to reduce the chances of a sub-3C month. It is certainly impressive that we have a 71 day period averaging 3.03C, but then you could take a cold winter like 1985/86 and pick a few weeks either side and say "we've had a 4 month period averaging x.xx" and it would probably be colder.

Basically, you cant compare a random dataset with complete months' data from the past.

A months cold is a months cold whichever way you dress it up. What difference does the start and end day make?! :o Apart from satisfying the meteorological annuls of course. But it doesn't somehow make the climate warmer than it is because the dates don't conveniently match a calendar month!

Lets wait till the end of the month and the whole matter should be put to bed anyway regarding the point you are trying to make. But tbh I am rather bemused by the fixation and significance of this 3c winter CET thing. IMO it is pointless trying to place limits/benchmarks all the time and then moving them around once they are subsequently breached to try and keep a certain POV alive. We have had this with the annual rolling CET, but the script wasn't followed, and now it is happening with monthly winter CET's.

I don't think that this sub 3c CET is that significant - only in the minds of those who feel it is so hard for it to be breeched in the UK for some reason. Still, only 3 weeks to go and you will all know the outcome for this month I guess. But it will happen at some stage anyway.

In summary I wasn't actually trying to illustrate how cold it has been at all - merely that some people are speculating about the unlikeliness of something that has already happened under a differing range of datelines!

Edited February 9, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Snowly does it]

0.4 on Hadley to the 8th, last nights minima -1.3 to put with todays maxima

Given the storm, temps will stay up tonight and so I expect it to be around 0.7 or 0.8 by the update for the 10th and holding or declining a little from there until the weekend

As of now, 5.7 per day already required to return us to the 71-00 average by month end.

As of now, 3.9 per day to keep us sub 3 required (would end us on 2.9 if we recorded an average of 3.9 per day from here)

For sub 3 hunters, the update to include Valentines will be interesting - to the 14th Jan was 1.5 and we know that came close to sub 3 - Feb should be lower by the 14th and has less time for any milder weather to mitigate the figure. Anyting less than 1 on the 14th and sub 3 looks increasingly possible.

[Nick H]

Basically, you cant compare a random dataset with complete months' data from the past.

I disagree, partly because a "complete month's data" is essentially a random dataset anyway.

Much was made of July 2006 being the hottest calendar month ever, which was true, and the press loved it of course, but few media outlets picked up on the fact that mid-Jul to mid-Aug 1995 was actually a hotter 31 day period. Using calendar months actually allows the media to distort weather stories, not put the "event" (to use a new, favourite buzzword) in a proper, historical context. Which is quite the opposite to what you are saying.

Edited February 9, 2009 by Nick H