Snow Watch: London, Ea & Se England

[Geordiesnow]

Dont post stupid comments like this when you have absolutely no backing for it.

Its not a 'stupid' comment there by Conor, its just his interpetation of what MIGHT happen during the cold snap, whether he is right or not is pretty irrelavant. His comment would only sound like a winding up comment if he menturns that no-where will recieve any snow as this will clearly won't be the case.

[SMU]

Steve Murr.

If it's not to much trouble what could we expect arond this area/what will happen?

Well the way to approach this ( & this is for everyone in the SE corner) is to take the 2 events as a seperate entity - especially as the second one has many variables at the moment ranging from ALL snow, max potential, to no snow- if it slides east or snow to rain/ Snow to sleet!!!!

So we have Sunday, the cold front through the morning sets the theme going from Clear skies to the ones that just get deeper & deeper grey throughout the afternoon-

The window for heavy snow showers will be around 3pm to 6am Monday - thats around 15 Hours- Within that time I would hazard a guess that ALL of the SE gets a covering, this ranging from a paultry 1/2cms to maybe close on 8-10cms-

The problem is its not consistent & almost impossible to forecast- the updated charts- thats over the last 36 Hours have swung from a ESE flow to a ENE flow & thats important ( it could still change back) because it changes the risk of heavier snow away from Essex, Herts & Cambs to Kent, Sussex & London (South side of the Estuary)

TBH its a nowcast event,

the best bit of advise I can give is watch the path of showers at 6-9pm tomorrow on the dutch radar- if the are swinging slightly SW off the Estuary you will be the lower end of totals-

If they are running through on a slightly NW track you will be towards the higher end-

As for the second event- You will need to see the ensemble mean for the GFS at T 12 for the 0c isotherm & where the PPN sets up to get reasonable clarity- you are far west enough to keep the colder air probably, but may miss the PPN-

regards

Steve

[chionomaniac]

In the SE corner ( thats LONDON ANY COUNTY Adjacent West or SW) Essex, Kent, Suffolk -

One lucky place from Sun- late mon, then sitting on the NW exit of the triple point of the low will end up with ~ 7-10 inches of snow-

S

Fax charts seem to indicate a line from Brighton to Preston for that triple point to travel from 00z to 12z Tues. I would prefer it to be slightly further east personally to reduce risk of sleet/rain.

[Snow Queen one]

Fax charts seem to indicate a line from Brighton to Preston for that triple point to travel from 00z to 12z Tues. I would prefer it to be slightly further east personally to reduce risk of sleet/rain.

What is a triple point? Does Steve's quote mean kent will be in the fireing line for the heavist snow?

[maidstone weather]

What is a triple point? Does Steve's quote mean kent will be in the fireing line for the heavist snow?

The point where the warm front, cold front and occlusion all join up (or where the cold front meets the warm front and occlude). The triple point is to our west I'm afraid, so we are one of the places at greatest risk of snow to sleet or rain event because we have the warm sector.

[chionomaniac]

What is a triple point? Does Steve's quote mean kent will be in the fireing line for the heavist snow?

It's the point where the occluded front splits into a cold and warm front near the centre of a depression and can be seen on the 72 hr fax chart over NW England

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...3b5b1ab4c974af2

[Snow Queen one]

Thanks for the reply guys. Ya boo sucks. Maybe it will change a gal can dream.lol

[HighPressure]

I wonder what effect the north downs will have on snowfall they normally act as a barrier keeping a lot of PPN away from London itself. I am on the Surrey/Kent/Sth London Border its a distinct snow line 2mins down the road its sleet or just a sugar coating whereas 2 mins up the road there can be 2-4 inches. Will we see the same pattern again or is this different?

[SMU]

Updated ECM at the 3 critical timespans-

12pm Mon- -5c line off the French Coast-

PPN just off the French Coast-

6pm Monday- -5c line from the Wash to the IOW- the SE corner ranging from -5c West London to Around -1c on the East & Kent Coast- Triple point somewhere around London-

PPN through the UK- ALL SNOW thats leading edge back to Kent- ( thats 3-6 hours of continuous snowfall)

00z Midnight Tues- 0c isotherm NOT touching the UK, but thicknesses probably around ~ 530 DAM-

West of London between -2c & -5c uppers- East of London -3c down to -1C

PPN charts- Snow for everyone - Sleet & MAYBE RAIN for east Kent- Suffolk, East Norfolk, Lincs- up to humber-

this the best assessment I can give at the moment-

best accumulating depth- 7-10 Inches from the Convective Stuff & the NW part of the triple point- Somewhere CLOSE to London-

S

[angel]

Never a bad time.

The rain and sleet issue is for monday evening when the GFS progs an area of warmer upper temps to hit the East and SE...turning the snow to rain and sleet. Paul Sherman, who you have quoted above, has given a figure of between 4 and 8 inches (his own opinion) for Essex from SUnday afternoon, when the snow starts, overnight into Monday before the warm uppers are due.

Now the uncertainty comes because some other models dont have these warmer uppers affecting these areas as much, so it may be infact all snow, or there me be a bit of sleet before it turns back to snow. Its not certain, which is causing confusion and only time will tell. But there will still be solely snow sunday afternoon, evening, night and monday morning...the uncertainty comes after this.! Hope that helps.!

Thanks so much for replying, guess I can start getting at least a little bit excited then!

I really appreciate you explaining it all to me in such easy to understand terms! I'm going to try to keep learning and this helps a lot!

Anita

[michelle]

Just seen the latest on BBC 24, Peter Gibbs just mentioned disruption to travel during Monday. Sounds like it's going to be fun for me at work, I work for one of the local train lines into London. Hope it's not the wrong type of snow lol .

[PB22]

Just seen the latest on BBC 24, Peter Gibbs just mentioned disruption to travel during Monday. Sounds like it's going to be fun for me at work, I work for one of the local train lines into London. Hope it's not the wrong type of snow lol .

I bet it will be, I know what you rail companies are like!

Just to clarify, what is the wrong type of snow?

[michelle]

Hi paul,

worked for them for years and I still don't know lol

[tinybill]

I bet it will be, I know what you rail companies are like!

Just to clarify, what is the wrong type of snow?

its the type which is to dry i think!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.teleweer.nl/portal.asp?url=./wr_neerslag.asp

dutch weather radar

Edited January 31, 2009 by tinybill

[Upgrade]

Cycling to work on Monday morning should be fun.......

Presumably with the strong easterly winds, the urban heat island effect shouldnt be too noticeable as well for those living in London ! so more snow potential ! great news for once!

[donna-m]

http://www.teleweer.nl/portal.asp?url=./wr_neerslag.asp

dutch weather radar

Are they lightning strikes ??

[PB22]

Hi paul,

worked for them for years and I still don't know lol

Proof that they make it up as they go along then! Only messing!

Are they lightning strikes ??

No, its a precipitation radar, hopefully it will look busy in the morning!

[Jayces]

Are they lightning strikes ??

I think they are clouds.

[Iceni]

Apart from the usual orange level 'be prepared' alert for the area from the MetO = snow

There's this at the end: "During Tuesday, snow is likely to turn to rain from the east, except over higher ground."

My location is 110 metres asl extreme west of Suffolk (about 60 miles inland from coast).

Does 110m count as higher ground? Clutching at straws, I know, but I can hope

[SMU]

Based on the blend of all 4 models toinght- GFS, UKMET, ECM & NMM model -

I would have the hotspot for best snow somewhere like-

the south Downs- Banstead- that sort of Area-

PPN Rates through the convective stuff 1mm per 2 hours average- across 12 hours is around 6cms-

PPN rates through the band are tops-4mm p/hour for 4 - 6hours averaging 2mm per hour- = 12mm = 12CMs

Aggregate ~ 15-20 cms-

Thats the sweet spot-

subject to eastward & westward correction-

Steve

[PompeyFC]

Hiyah steve - can you give your thoughts on what it may look like for southern hampshire through till tuesday, portsmouth area ?

regards

B

[snow raven]

Just seen the latest on BBC 24, Peter Gibbs just mentioned disruption to travel during Monday. Sounds like it's going to be fun for me at work, I work for one of the local train lines into London. Hope it's not the wrong type of snow lol .

Thats exactly why I booked monday off work! Can't be bothered with standing on a snowy platform waiting for non-existent trains for 3 hours - and thats from the usual rubbish 2cm snow we usually get every few winters!

Well, that, and the fact that I want to go out and play in it.

best accumulating depth- 7-10 Inches from the Convective Stuff & the NW part of the triple point- Somewhere CLOSE to London-

S

Hopefully Bexleyheath, eh Steve!

[FAB]

Based on the blend of all 4 models toinght- GFS, UKMET, ECM & NMM model -

I would have the hotspot for best snow somewhere like-

the south Downs- Banstead- that sort of Area-

PPN Rates through the convective stuff 1mm per 2 hours average- across 12 hours is around 6cms-

PPN rates through the band are tops-4mm p/hour for 4 - 6hours averaging 2mm per hour- = 12mm = 12CMs

Aggregate ~ 15-20 cms-

Thats the sweet spot-

subject to eastward & westward correction-

Steve

BINGO!....thanks for that Steve...I live in Chipstead and have been waiting for this set up for quite some time. Bring it on.

[sarah7meme]

Based on the blend of all 4 models toinght- GFS, UKMET, ECM & NMM model -

I would have the hotspot for best snow somewhere like-

the south Downs- Banstead- that sort of Area-

PPN Rates through the convective stuff 1mm per 2 hours average- across 12 hours is around 6cms-

PPN rates through the band are tops-4mm p/hour for 4 - 6hours averaging 2mm per hour- = 12mm = 12CMs

Aggregate ~ 15-20 cms-

Thats the sweet spot-

subject to eastward & westward correction-

Steve

ct188hh lyminge,.. if you want to suggest a quick summary of chances it will be much appreciated - or if anyone wants to offer a prediction ... i have to say last year TEITS was spot on !

Edited January 31, 2009 by sarah7meme

[maidstone weather]

am i south downs or north downs? lol sorry - having a weird moment! ct188hh lyminge, and if you want to suggest a quick summary of chances it will be much appreciated - or if anyone wants to offer a prediction ... i have to say last year TEITS was spot on !

You're North Downs