Snow Watch : Scotland

[Methuselah]

You won't believe this.... I caught 5! Luckily Asda were doing a deal on them .

On a more serious note, looks like a front is moving southwards coupled with an area of low pressure. Snow is very much a possibility for most of Scotland today imo. The central belt could do well too as this front is unlikely to arrive there much later in the day. The current temperatures are an extremely good sign too.

Aye...Wee sleekit timorous beastie...

It could be looking good. But I'm a tad worried by the rain in Lewis???

[BlizzardConditions]

I wonder if this one will take track dow the Irish sea right between us an NI? That would be brilliant for the west . Sorry to be selfish . I just hope you all love me enough to forgive me

At the moment it's forecast to move across the North and then down the East side so we'll miss out if that happens. We had a half decent fall Sunday though so I won't be greedy!

[WhiteXmas]

Aye...Wee sleekit timorous beastie...

It could be looking good. But I'm a tad worried by the rain in Lewis???

I think the positive to be taken from this for mainland Scotland is that Lewis is heavily influenced by the sea therefore rain is considerably more likely there. I think the chances of it being snow inland on mainland Scotland are around 75% at the moment. The later we go into the day the probability becomes greater.

At the moment it's forecast to move across the North and then down the East side so we'll miss out if that happens. We had a half decent fall Sunday though so I won't be greedy!

No you must be greedy! . Even though it may be forecast to take this track it is impossible to be accurate on that forecast. Polar Low tracks are notoriously difficult to predict where they will end up. That's what makes them so interesting I think. A PL is essentially a winter cyclone if you like. Polar Lows are accompanied by fields of strong winds with speeds in excessv of 14 m/s. The strongest winds are usually where the polar low's movement is in the same direction as the wind; thus creating a cylconic like appearance, even synthetically appearing as a hurricane on satellites.

The vertical motion of a PL fluxuates so much as it matures that it becomes impossible to forecast exactly what track it will take. There is obviously far more to this than what I am trying to describe but it is too complicated for anyone without relevant knowledge of meteorology.

If i show you here the sort of deviation we are talking about in this graph it is clear to see what changes can occur:

It is this rising and sinking which causes the pressure to fall and that is what the isobars tend to manifest on any satellite/map when the fluxuation is taken into account.

Edited February 10, 2009 by WhiteXmas

[BlizzardConditions]

No you must be greedy! :lol: . Even though it may be forecast to take this track it is impossible to be accurate on that forecast. Polar Low tracks are notoriously difficult to predict where they will end up. That's what makes them so interesting I think.

Thanks for that description, very helpful! Having read through the Polar Low thread though it doesn't look at all certain that this IS a polar low after all and might just be a normal low. Of course, even if that is the case, the track is still not certain so we shall see. But your absolutely right, I should be more greedy. To hell with you Easterners - give me my snow!

[WhiteXmas]

Thanks for that description, very helpful! Having read through the Polar Low thread though it doesn't look at all certain that this IS a polar low after all and might just be a normal low. Of course, even if that is the case, the track is still not certain so we shall see. But your absolutely right, I should be more greedy. To hell with you Easterners - give me my snow!

that's the attitude :lol: . You are welcome for the information, however take a look at the satellite; the way to tell if it is not a Polar Low is too see if there is a comma- like tail.

Polar Lows look very similar to Commas but usually form in northern areas. They formunder synoptic conditions when compared to the more general features of a Comma.

Here are the distinctive differences between a PL and a Comma:

1. Commas have a distinct tail, while Polar Lows have a more circular cloud pattern.

2. Polar Lows develop far away from the polar front while Comma clouds often develop much closer.

3. Polar Lows produce more severe weather conditions compared to a Comma.

4. Polar Lows only form during winter while Commas can exist throughout the year.

2. is indicative of a PL being present this itme as the system formed far away form the polar front.

Edited February 10, 2009 by WhiteXmas

[BlizzardConditions]

Here are the distinctive differences between a PL and a Comma:

1. Commas have a distinct tail, while Polar Lows have a more circular cloud pattern.

2. Polar Lows develop far away from the polar front while Comma clouds often develop much closer.

3. Polar Lows produce more severe weather conditions compared to a Comma.

4. Polar Lows only form during winter while Commas can exist throughout the year.

2. is indicative of a PL being present this itme as the system formed far away form the polar front.

To just ryhme off information like that is rather impressive - either that or Google is your best friend

Hearing this sort of thing certainly gives me a bit of hope for tonight. Thanks again for the info mate :lol:

[WhiteXmas]

To just ryhme off information like that is rather impressive - either that or Google is your best friend :lol:

Hearing this sort of thing certainly gives me a bit of hope for tonight. Thanks again for the info mate

Of course I don't know all that off the top of my head. I have been doing a meteorology course whilst I am taking time out of my uni studies so I write all this stuff down .

I'm glad it helped mate just keep and eye on the pressure later on. It will start to drop; not particularly because of the PL but because of the other low pressure front moving down from the North. This is likely imo to bring snow.

Edited February 10, 2009 by WhiteXmas

[NorthernRab]

Looks as though the Highland Capital of the Shneck (Inverness, that is :lol: ) is a bit to get a little bit of heavy snow, perhaps lasting about 6 hours or so.

Why am I never there when these things happen? Pffft

[WhiteXmas]

Looks as though the Highland Capital of the Shneck (Inverness, that is ) is a bit to get a little bit of heavy snow, perhaps lasting about 6 hours or so.

Why am I never there when these things happen? Pffft

Because you are a silly, silly chap! :lol:

[NorthernRab]

^ Tell me about it. At least I arrived in Glasgow on time on Sunday night for a nice monster 8ft snowman :lol:

[WhiteXmas]

^ Tell me about it. At least I arrived in Glasgow on time on Sunday night for a nice monster 8ft snowman

Well it all worked out for the best then :lol: . I wonder if Inverness will be snowed int AGAIN?

[Hiya]

Looks as though the Highland Capital of the Shneck (Inverness, that is ) is a bit to get a little bit of heavy snow, perhaps lasting about 6 hours or so.

Why am I never there when these things happen? Pffft

I was like that when I first moved away from home but you need to accept the loss.

Mind you I still get annoyed when it snows there and not here.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Afternoon all.

Is that a decent band of snow moving south this evening I see?

As highlander by birth (Carrbridge), can I ask that you guys in the north leave some for for us in the borders?

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Afternoon all. Yet another cold and frosty night here last night (min -3.4C). Lovely sunny day with the temp just crept over the freezing mark. A band of fairly heavy snow showers forecast to cross here late this afternoon/early evening followed by another heavy band of snow showers early tomorrow.

[Duncan McAlister]

Rob McElwee says tonight's band of snow should give no more than 'light covering'

[Mr Frost]

Quite a remarkable change from 12 hours ago with regards to the feature moving down from the northwest later. Latest charts/metoffice/gfs ect have it completely missing Glasgow and surrounding places. The further east you are the better, Edinburgh in the firing line for some heavy snow. West Central Scotland expect sleet for a while.

[WhiteXmas]

Rob McElwee says tonight's band of snow should give no more than 'light covering'

If I was to put my neck on the line I would say there is a possibility of more than a light covering. I would say it is not unreasonable to forecast 3-5cm for the central belt. My reasoning for this is that it is a very slow moving front once again. The 850 hpA wind vectors show to be mixed therefore there is a chance of the front stalling. Out East could fare better this time around as heavier amounts of ppn look to be moving towards that direction.

[shuggee]

However, the current radar shows that nothing is behaving as predicted by the models - I think we'll have a clearer picture around 17h00.

[WhiteXmas]

However, the current radar shows that nothing is behaving as predicted by the models - I think we'll have a clearer picture around 17h00.

That's true Shuggee, however although the radar is better than gfs for example it is still not reliable enough to suggest what will happen in the next few hours; it is very much a nowcasting tool I would say.

Quick note: Pressure is falling away now.

Edited February 10, 2009 by WhiteXmas

[snowy owl]

Quite a remarkable change from 12 hours ago with regards to the feature moving down from the northwest later. Latest charts/metoffice/gfs ect have it completely missing Glasgow and surrounding places. The further east you are the better, Edinburgh in the firing line for some heavy snow. West Central Scotland expect sleet for a while.

Thanks for that update, being very easterly and not that far from edinburgh i'm really pleased to see we get another chance of snow (we've not had all that much escpecially compared to our westerly cousins) how much are we talking in terms of heavy snow?

[WhiteXmas]

Thanks for that update, being very easterly and not that far from edinburgh i'm really pleased to see we get another chance of snow (we've not had all that much escpecially compared to our westerly cousins) how much are we talking in terms of heavy snow?

I would estimate eastern areas could see 5-10 cm as the front is very slow moving. I doubt it will arrive in the central belt before night time it is moving that slowly.

Pressure here has dropped 11 millibars in under two hours.

Edited February 10, 2009 by WhiteXmas

[snowy owl]

I would estimate eastern areas could see 5-10 cm as the front is very slow moving. I doubt it will arrive in the central belt before night time it is moving that slowly.

Thanks for that. I'm surprised that it may bring so much snow, why do the BBC, met office not have any details out on this?? or is that a daft question.

This thread for us Scotties is great as we can get fab info for our area and enjoy a wee chat too.

[WhiteXmas]

Thanks for that. I'm surprised that it may bring so much snow, why do the BBC, met office not have any details out on this?? or is that a daft question.

This thread for us Scotties is great as we can get fab info for our area and enjoy a wee chat too.

I am ignoring the BBC and Meto right now; though the meto slightly redeemed themselves on Sunday. Much better to go with your own intuition if you ask me .

Too true as well, it is much better having a Scottish section. People are far more informed this way and we don't get buried under all the south east crap.

[snowy owl]

I am ignoring the BBC and Meto right now; though the meto slightly redeemed themselves on Sunday. Much better to go with your own intuition if you ask me .

Too true as well, it is much better having a Scottish section. People are far more informed this way and we don't get buried under all the south east crap.

Yeah couldn' t agree more, far more informed and getting a better understanding of things this way.

Anyway speaking of understanding, i've been having a peek at the charts for next few days, it appears to my untrained eye that we are going to be well influenced by high pressure but that this may result in some possibilities for eastern areas way later on?? i know everything is still subject to change but the possibilities seem there?

[Shadow]

I am ignoring the BBC and Meto right now; though the meto slightly redeemed themselves on Sunday. Much better to go with your own intuition if you ask me .

Too true as well, it is much better having a Scottish section. People are far more informed this way and we don't get buried under all the south east crap.

I agree on having a scottish section as well. Kept more informed with what is happening right here and now.