Model Output Discussion

[dice48]

i think the north of ireland and scotland are going to get a pasting of snow from monnight-wednight. look at this!

[Yeti]

disagree there, and yeti, i think only the higher hills will receive settling snow, i think a wintry mix is likely for other areas, and sleet or rain for the lowest ground.

Can people PLEASE stop putting words into my mouth? That is exactly what I said, Azores92.

the uppers will easily be cold enough for snow on the higher hills. :o

I NEVER claimed lowland snow to be a possibility, nor on lower hills - but in the Pennines and northwards you will find many hills that do not fall into that aforementioned category.

[grab my graupel]

Evening everyone

There's a thread, which has just been opened, to chat about any Snow / Cold potential.

If your post isn't Model related, please try to use this instead :o

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1495000

[johnholmes]

Again the operational was something of an outlier with regards to that deep low, but

Meanwhile, further south (Suffolk) its a cooler outlook, but not that far from the norm to be honest:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_en...132075471698112

Ensembles here: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1

Paul

Met O give the average max for Wattisham, the nearest I can get for Suffolk as Feb=6.6C

March=9.5C

so interpolate between the two, say 7.5C?

seems somewhat higher than the graph shows, at least for early next week?

Edited February 26, 2009 by johnholmes

[azores92]

actually yeti you referred to just the hills in another comment. :o anyway lets not waste our time here, things are marginal, and unless your house has been put on high stilts on the top of pen-y-ghent things look poor for settling snow. im not excited about the prospects anyway, spring snow never really did excite me. convection, on the other hand, does.

[Cheese Rice]

I think people should stop been so negative about the weather coming up, no its not going to bitterely cold, and no there wont be significant snowfall for the south, but at least the potentioal is there and were not on the wrong side of the low getting mild w/sw winds, we get -2--5 upper air over the Uk for quite some time, i think people are forgetting snow also falls at night, and this personally is where the opertunites lie for lower elevations, and pretty much the whole of the UK(except higher elevations) for some decent snowfall amounts

[snowmadchrisuk]

Not as severe on the 12z Chris, but still significant. Also, rather than track North eastwards and out of the way, as most do, this system appears

to track a long the Eastern side of the UK for a time.

Hi brian , 12z not as servere as 6z I agree , but the track of the low on 12z seems to suggest to me that the strongest winds will be further south , looks like the midlands could be well effected by this run.

Some backend snow as the warm sector eventually gets mixed out looks possible. Lamp post watching next week will be fun as some will get snow some won't . I think alot of the showers in the day time will be of hail with some sleet/snow possible during in any prolonged precipitation. Fun week coming up that is for sure.

All eyes on the ecm catching on.

[The PIT]

Funny if we get the strongest winds in spring. FI land has a very interesting Low in the North sea which could bring us the strongest winds since last winter. Looking Wet and Windy for us and those on the tops maybe able to enjoy a snow ball fight. I wonder if the Models will the normal downgrade of wind strengths which has been the norm since Winter has begun.

Anyway prospect of some interesting weather coming up.

If anyone has had a look at CFS long range model it has some nice northerly blocking and North Easterlies for the end of march.

[J10]

If the GFS there is a definitely a chance of some snow just about anywhere Monday Night into Tuesday with 850HPa being well below -5 and DAM well below 528. Daytime is another story with a wintry mix far more likely with any snow for the hills as mentioned previously.

However even slight changes can make all the difference to this.

[PB22]

Paul

Met O give the average max for Wattisham, the nearest I can get for Suffolk as Feb=6.6C

March=9.5C

so interpolate between the two, say 7.5C?

seems somewhat higher than the graph shows, at least for early next week?

Hi Mr H. Hope you are well.

Just had a look through my own records, and my averages for February (since 1988) have been 6.1C and March at 8.8C...so I would guess for the end of February it would be around 7C? So yes at least for early next week going by those ensembles it would be slightly colder than normal, but not a huge amount in it. :o

ECM now on the way out, and its going along the UKMO route up to T+120 it seems:

T+96: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html

T+120: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html

By T+144 it keeps the low further north:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Leaves GFS on its on somewhat for the positioning of the low at T+120:

ECM: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html

UKMO: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

GFS: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

And by T+144 they are all very different:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

Somewhere in between the three main models is the most likely outcome, but T+120 seems to be the limit at the moment and is where FI starts.

[Frosty.]

A disappointing UKMO 12z with the main low staying to the west which looks similar to the ECM 00z run earlier today. The GFS seems on it's own yet again and how long will it be before it downgrades sheepishly as per usual, new gfs but same old problems although I would love it to be right for once... :o

[johnholmes]

the deep low shown on GFS does seem a touch overdone.

For those wanting cold its track is obviously better but I'm not sure its correct.

Nor will we know for some time yet whether it is nearer the mark than ECMWF or the UK Met idea.

hi PB

okay hope you are

Edited February 26, 2009 by johnholmes

[PB22]

I am well thanks Mr H.

ECM T+168: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1681.html

Low sinking southeast across the UK. Take your pick tonight!

[mcweather]

I am well thanks Mr H.

ECM T+168: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1681.html

Low sinking southeast across the UK. Take your pick tonight!

Seems to me we are getting into one of those situations where FI is much closer than usual and as JH has just said it will be a while yet before we see. exactly how things could pan out. This actually reminds me of the run up at this range to the previous cold spell when the models wavered somewhat before eventually all coming in behind one of the colder options. It would not surprise me at all if this is what happens again here. We may well have to wait until well into the weekend or even monday before it all become clear.

[snowmadchrisuk]

what model run does the parelle on meteociel now show , as it is different to the operational , with the low further west. I am confused now to which run is which.

Edited February 26, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[bluearmy]

what model run does the parelle on meteociel now show , as it is different to the operational , with the low further west. I am confused now to which run is which.

look at the date chris - its yesterdays output which is the new operational which was the old parallel .................. i expect sylvain will remove the link soon

[snowmadchrisuk]

ok thanks for that sorry if my posts are going on here twice laptop playing up

Edited February 26, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[NorthantsSnow]

Again the operational was something of an outlier with regards to that deep low, but there is a little more support from the ensemble members than on the 06Z run - Aberdeen pressure ensembles:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_en...415094339622627

GFS was a cold outlier for early next week up north (east Scotland):

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_en...415094339622627

Meanwhile, further south (Suffolk) its a cooler outlook, but not that far from the norm to be honest:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_en...132075471698112

Those charts are terribly unclear. Netweather's own are much better:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

[karyo]

The 12z ECM is definately an improvement to the 0z as it moves the low further east so we get some cold air over us and no mild easterly flow from the Med.

Karyo

[bluearmy]

The 12z ECM is definately an improvement to the 0z as it moves the low further east so we get some cold air over us and no mild easterly flow from the Med.

Karyo

worth noting that even on ecm 12z, its not until T168 that we get uppers below -5c and even then , thats only over a small part of scotland.

[tundra]

I have checked the different threads but have not seen it mentioned anywhere else that the Met office forcast a colder spring than last year for the UK and western Europe.

The long range spring forcast came out yesterday. The models definitely seem to be trending to colder now apart from the UKMO which now seems to be the odd one out for the time being.

[PB22]

GFS shows no sign of backing down at the moment. 18z run so far out to T+114 and its broadly similar to the 12z run:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-120.png?18

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-120.png?18

Not particularly cold uppers though, just cool with rain or showers and any snow restricted to northern hills.

Will be interesting to see what the 00z runs bring in the morning.

[grab my graupel]

Not quite there yet, but it's looks as though the deep low is further North and West than on

the 12z run.

[PB22]

Secondary low further south on the 18z...good news for the north, not so good for the southwest:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-132.png?18

[damianslaw]

Yes very unclear how things will exactly pan out with the low pressure due to arrive later on Sunday and into Monday, but the theme is a colder outlook. Probably be Sunday before there is real certainty with the track of the low pressure, would like GFS to verify but in recent weeks it has not done very well at all, but I think it will only be a matter of time before we see some very cold uppers courtesy of an arctic plunge and heights to the NW, the synoptics are looking very conducive to a sustained cold period indeed - these are the signals.