Storm/convective Discussion

[Tom Lynch]

Hi Pat

I was working in garden in Windermere and watched towers building most of the day. but no action. Until I got home to my own garden and storms developed east and west of my house. I laid back on the chair in the garden with my grandson watching as the thunder rolled by. One cell that passed over Ambleside gave me grief because it caused a flash flood and I had to arrange sandbags to be sent to one property

Tom

[Ross B]

Thats "only" 2-300 CAPE for me on wednesday Pat, so its about 5 times less than tomorrow and thursday :winky:

[dogs32]

Hi Pat

I was working in garden in Windermere and watched towers building most of the day. but no action. Until I got home to my own garden and storms developed east and west of my house. I laid back on the chair in the garden with my grandson watching as the thunder rolled by. One cell that passed over Ambleside gave me grief because it caused a flash flood and I had to arrange sandbags to be sent to one property

Tom

I Tom.............good to here from you...miss the Supercell days.......

Had nothing here all week apart from 7 bangs..lol

Done your DVD;S....posting tomorrow

est Ross I am not sure where you are mate...

I dont know the outer Heberdies that well

only kidding....no dont know Scotland at all really..

Edited June 28, 2009 by dogs32

[Ross B]

Just south of Glasgow Pat (West coast :winky: )

[dogs32]

Ross...thanks...Now I know....I thought it was some obscure place up there.....

Anyway plenty of chances for you this week......Seems to me the charts have been fairly consistent all week with these predictions....

I think maybe everything will SLOWLY transport itself to the East eventually

[maidstone weather]

Ross...thanks...Now I know....I thought it was some obscure place up there.....

Anyway plenty of chances for you this week......Seems to me the charts have been fairly consistent all week with these predictions....

I think maybe everything will SLOWLY transport itself to the East eventually

we can live in hope

[dogs32]

we can live in hope

not sure about this pl;ace though

we can live in hope :lol:

no I am sure you will MW....

TN9 posted that the other. day..thought it was quite funny....

Im sure as the week goes on your chance will arise

thx Nick

cant complain about that forecast..Im in the bubble....

NL how many sugars do you take ...I dont have a spacesuit here mind.....lol..

Im looking forward to the TUESDAY morning event.....Them sort of storms always seem the most violent

Edited June 28, 2009 by dogs32

[Nick F]

Netweather have released a storms forecast for tomorrow:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

In a nutshell, isolated storms likely to develop in humid airmass over western areas from Mid-Wales and Midlands northwards as temps reach high 20s and sea breeze convergence creates lift. Further E and SE, increasing ridging from the south likely to keep it hot and dry for next few days.

Plume of high theta-w values advects N out of NWern france late Monday overnight into Tues morning, and this looks to destabilise over W English Channel and SW England overnight with elevated storms moving N towards S Wales and SW Midlands.

[NL]

It will be very painful for us on the eastern side of the UK this week watching the storms

initiating down to the SW only to watch them slide up the western parts of the UK trying

desperately to push east only to be destroyed by the anticyclone hanging around like a fart

in a spacesuit...!!

And to rub salt into the wounds low cloud, haar, mizzle/drizzle, fog, mist doom/gloom will no doubt raise its ugly face...!!!!

A trip over to the west looks imminent this week...

[dogs32]

Jay Wynne...just confirming Nick;s forecast for Mon/Tues....

didnt realy go past Tuesday.....

But saying its going to be a West East split

Edited June 28, 2009 by dogs32

[Tn9]

Will be painful for you, but even more painful for me as for the last few days I have been in the storm risk box and nothing has come of it. Being out of the risk box and not getting a storm is tough, constantly being in the risk box and not getting a storm is unbearable.

The only thing here this week that is going to be unbearable is going to be the heat,we are not even blessed with a forecasted shower let alone a storm,aah just a wee shower,so you can smell that lovely smell of fresh rain on parched dirt

[Guest]

I will chase if necessary on Tuesday or Wednesday (or both!)

Nick F, if your still reading: Will tomorrow nights storms in the south (plume associated) be pretty electrified?

[viking_smb]

I will chase if necessary on Tuesday or Wednesday (or both!)

Nick F, if your still reading: Will tomorrow nights storms in the south (plume associated) be pretty electrified?

there may not be storms at all tomorrow night, but you never know

[Nick F]

I will chase if necessary on Tuesday or Wednesday (or both!)

Nick F, if your still reading: Will tomorrow nights storms in the south (plume associated) be pretty electrified?

*If* mid-level storms develop across the SW tomorrow night from the elevated plume crossing from NW France, then yes they could be quite electrified as is often the case ...

Some of the most vivid and frequent lightning storms I have ever seen has been from early morning storms, both here and in the US.

[Phil UK]

*IF* Being the tentative word, Nick F.

*If* the thundery breakdown on Friday 26th June... Nope, some saw some atmospheric pyrotecnics around the UK. I just saw loads of rain. (And I'm still trying to dry out the parasol that I accidentally left outside the evening before!!)

*If* Saturday 27th June... Was supposed to be dry and warm. Instead... Solihull was on a borderline with an MCS. (Pics in previous thread!) Might explain why that massive crack of thunder which unfortunately hurt some teenagers in Small Heath. Even made my Mum jump out of her skin and me. I was out there thinking... "Is that all you've got?"

*If* Sunday 28th June... Some great Cu/Cb development. Nothing came of it though apart from a few large raindrops and that basically was it.

*If* Monday 29th June... What does that hold and where? I'm thinking that West is best this week.

But we'll see. Like women sometimes, the British weather is soooooo unpredictable.

Phil. (Awaits abuse from female members... )

Edited June 28, 2009 by Phil UK

[anvilhead]

*If* mid-level storms develop across the SW tomorrow night from the elevated plume crossing from NW France, then yes they could be quite electrified as is often the case ...

Some of the most vivid and frequent lightning storms I have ever seen has been from early morning storms, both here and in the US.

the best lightning show i've seen for many years were elevated storms coming up from the sw at the end of april 2005 (i think)

last radar frame shows a couple of swtorms over the channel, and something delveloping just of the coast - over lyme bay/chesil - i know theres meant to be light showers mocing up, but with 18c widely over the south right now, any unforecast life and we could be in business - anyone have any thoughts ?

sam

[maidstone weather]

Even made my Mum

there was an MCS on Saturday? I must've missed it! (as usual! :lol: )

[Guest]

Cheers Nick for the reply

[Phil UK]

Re-read my thread. PC went crazy on me so didn't finish what I'd intended. Sorry!

All done now and hammer ready to smash keyboard! (Well not really but sometimes... Grrrrrr!!! Must be the weather or something. )

Phil.

[anvilhead]

those cells are still holding together pushing into devon ..

[richep]

just noticed tht, will they turn thundery do you think

[anvilhead]

just noticed tht, will they turn thundery do you think

not sure - the forecast is just for light showers, but the ones over the channel on that line are pretty strong cells, so i supose theres a chance the trough or whatever it is is doing more than forecast - im happy to be corrected, but they're pretty strong at the moment

actualy yeah I'd say they're worth watching - http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ - come on storms!

[Phil UK]

Not likely, Richep. Sorry, seem to be heading in a NNE trajectory and will probably fizzle out, or at least become less intense in the early hours.

I'm still watching some PPN which seems to have become stuck over the east of Birmingham over the last couple of hours. Anaprop maybe? I can't see anything visually from my end and it's literally knocking on the door of south east Solihull.

Phil.

[anvilhead]

if its not a thunderstorm right now, its close - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

[Thundery wintry showers]

Will be painful for you, but even more painful for me as for the last few days I have been in the storm risk box and nothing has come of it. Being out of the risk box and not getting a storm is tough, constantly being in the risk box and not getting a storm is unbearable.

I dunno about that. I've been in the storm risk box for the whole of the last week and didn't get one, barring a few distant flashes of lightning, but I'd certainly take what I've had in Exeter over what South Shields has had, and it sounds like Birmingham's weather has been mostly similar to Exeter's.

I lived in nearby Cleadon for years and can vouch for how frustrating this setup can be- all the heat and storms out west, and low cloud for the north-east coast.