Model Output Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

The upcoming week looks quite interesting particular Monday to Wednesday where storms or sharp showers are possible. Decent cape for quite a few over the next few days and some Lower Layer shear so perhaps some organisation of showers or storms perhaps. B)

[Thundery wintry showers]

Depends when you call old school summers.

Use to get more dryer summers in the 70`s/80s and 90`s to this decade which goes as the wettest with less settled spells.

Not sure about the 2000s being the wettest decade. There were plenty of wet summers in the 1960s and 1980s in particular, and the 1980s contained that run of summers from 1985-88 which for most parts of the country were notably cold, cloudy and wet, as well as the washout in 1980. Warm dry sunny summers were also the exception rather than the rule in the earlier decades- 1933-35, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1955 and 1959 stick out.

Some are talking about lowered expectations, but going by the posts in here it would be hard to believe that June was warmer, drier and sunnier than average across most of the country, and that July has started wet but also fairly warm and sunny.

Still looks pretty showery to me rather than dull & wet for most of this week, although southern and eastern areas are likely to see plenty of sunshine in between the showers while towards the north-west it looks likely to be cooler and cloudier with more in the way of showers, perhaps merging into longer spells of rain at times. I still have a suspicion that next weekend could be another wet one- though today turned out drier & sunnier than expected in many places, so we can't rule out the possibility that the same might happen next weekend.

[Snowyowl9]

Related to the solar minimum perhaps? It seems odd to me too, as I don't recall the southerly tracking jet being such a major influence on summers before 2005.

You missed 2004 probably one of the wettest I`ve seen,I wouldn`t be surprised the jet was in a similar postion in 1999 and a couple of years later,early 2000`s aswell,remember some pretty wet times.

TWS as for 1985 to 1988 especially which was the worst summer no doubt and worse winter.

There were longer periods of settled spells before then though.

Edited July 12, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[damianslaw]

Very much low pressure in control for the foreseeable future with the traditional pattern of northern and western parts seeing the heaviest and longest lasting precipitation this week and consequently more cloud and cooler temperatures with the south east possibly escaping with a fairly dry and warm week, though nothing special.

Very very average summer weather coming up. Have to say there are worrying signs for the rest of the July beginning to emerge as the atlantic looks like it is stepping into gear on a more southerly trajectory and with northern blocking looking ominent in its sutained presence we could be about to be locked into a protracted unsettled spell of weather with very short lived ridges of high pressure quickly being toppled over by the next low from the west.

The atlantic often begins to stir at this time of year.... after its spring/early summer slumber.

On the positive side there is nothing very cool on the horizon temperatures look remaining average, as it should be for the time of year (we are entering what is traditionally the warmest period of the year mid July- early Aug).

[fine wine]

Looking like a rather warm week down here in the south east with highs predidcted to be around 27c later this week, although this may change.

[carinthian]

I dont come in here as much as I would like re time constraints

I would really like to see comments about the models ,every other post seems to be like the above ie a whinge based on nothing and has nothing to do with the models.

Hi Stewfox,

Agree there is a quite a few posters lacking in gravity and treating each model lightly and rather disrespectful to a lot of folk who contribute good thoughts on this topic. There are knowledgeable guys like John Holmes with all his experience would never right a summer off based on charts that can change like a flick of a switch. Tedious as some posts may seem, all I can say is look at the longer term patterns yourself and don't make a judgement on 3 different progs in a 24 hour period like some people.

Best Regards,

C

Edited July 12, 2009 by carinthian

[Iceni]

i recall the jet being almost non existant for a couple of weeks around that time. this allowed the atlantic low to become 'cut off' which drove the heat up from the south. the absence of the jet and its subsequent return were well shown on the global NAEFFS model. compare to now and remember that as the timescale moves out, the jet should be shown to get weaker due to the spread of solutions. the jet continues to show in the atlantic out to T384 i'm afraid. although it looks to pull back towards the eastern seaboard, you want to see it completely absent from the area to our west if you're looking for an optimistic sign.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cart...h=192&map=1

Thanks for the explanation. Winter or summer, the jet is a pain — or so it seems, just does the wrong thing at the wrong time the last 2 summers and winters apart from this last winter.

[Geordiesnow]

Looking like a rather warm week down here in the south east with highs predidcted to be around 27c later this week, although this may change.

It does not look all that wet either for next week on the 18Z run(apart from Monday/Tuesday), i honesty don't think it will be as bad as some are making out on here, average temps(or slightly above if that chart was proven to be right) and a bit of rain at times but there will be some drier interludes at times i feel.

I'm certainly not writing off July either, for too premature by some i feel, we all know how weather patterns can change quickly so i do believe we probably get a few warm/hot spells before summer is out hopefully.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Some really heavy rain in France:

[I can't believe it's not better]

That will probably disappear and then reappear in a few days time running along the channel. (oh god is that the time - I forgot about my proper job!)

[Tucco]

GFS 00z unsettled with end of week low developing in more northerly location.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

Looks fairly wet at times.

Mark,

Teesdale,Co Durham

[mushymanrob]

I fear some are writing off July far to quickly.

Lets remember that +192 on the models only takes us to 20th July. Lets also remember that when it comes to model watching a hot/settled spell won't appear at +240 and work its way down to +0. The exact same happens in winter because how often does the GFS predict mild SW,lys until +384 only for a cold N or E,ly to appear at +168.

Fair enough the model output is awful at the moment but I seriously doubt the output in FI is correct because it rarely is. Like I said earlier I have a sneaky feeling a hot spell may emerge from the models in the near future for the period between 20th July onwards.

the trouble is though dave, is that our competant lrf members are saying that the upstream signes are not there...yet... johnholmes, glacier point and chionomanic who did spot the last hot spell long before it appeared on the models are not optimistic now for the return of the heat in later july.

this is why i asked if our hot spells are inextricably linked to activity in the conditions in the tropics or not. the answer was yes and atm the conditions arnt conducive to another hot spell for a while... ok theres always august, and things might get into place by then...

the bbq summer? another 95? ...lol..unfortunately not.

[snowingman]

if it is summer you are looking for.. best to avoid the UK over the next week or two..

plenty of heavy showers to come, with at best mediocre temperatures for mid July.

Not even a suggestion of hot weather anywhere on the models, so bring out the brolley!!

I guess is won't rain all the time, but the theme of the last two summers continues into 2009, our early heat wave will be the memory for 2009.

Ah well..

[johnholmes]

never mind the end of July if you look carefully at UK Met, GFS and ECMWF, for Friday over the weekend they are hardly singing from the same hymn sheet.

Treating the developing low in rather different ways-even from where it seems to have originated from.

It has to be the upper trough west of the UK but like I say 3 rather different ideas at the moment.

Turning to further ahead then most synoptic data, out into the 3rd week of July shows a marked upper trough from the pole southwards which is likely to be the main feature. Just where it actually settles is of course vital to our weather. Currently nothing suggests any prolonged dry weather nor, for that matter, any really cool weather.

Looking further out to other teleconnections then some signs of a better start into August but its at about 40% in my view at the moment. Mind you that is an improvement on how I rated it 2-3 days ago!

Edited July 13, 2009 by johnholmes

[Thundery wintry showers]

Still detecting an over-simplistic "low pressure therefore despair" similar to the "northerly therefore despair" in April or "south-westerly therefore despair" in January. The ranting about "where's our summer" isn't especially constructive.

The outlook through to Thursday is looking fairly showery/convective still, with a fair amount of warm sunshine likely towards the SE, always more cloud and showers towards the NW, and temperatures near average in the NW, above in the SE.

However in fairness it does look like developing into a washout towards the weekend as the trend is increasingly for the jet to speed up and large depressions to start moving in perhaps making it rather "autumnal". Friday could have some significant thundery activity although in my experience that kind of thunder setup is usually downgraded into rain closer to the time.

[Eugene]

The optimists on TWO are saying the model output is poor this morning, actually its slightly improved from yesterday, well as in more ridge days though still nothing great overall, no doubt when the models do deteriorate they will be optimistic again

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Those who are wanting hot plumes will be looking at the models and seeing them pulse NE'wards from southern europe through France and into central and eastern europe - firmly on the downstream ridge side of the jetstream that is focussed on our island - much as it has been in the last couple of summers.

I was tbh sceptical of another 2006 type summer early on, but equally I didn't expect a re-run of the last two summers either. To date we are closer to the last two years for sure, but what will determine the eventual outcome will be whether or not another very warm settled spell occurs in the second half of the summer, which we are now about to begin. This won't make another 2006, but it will be enough for hot weather wishers to have seen the 'improvement' they would want.

Each few days that passes, with the present pattern as currently modelled appearing to accelerate if anything, is tipping the pendulum more towards 07/08 copy. Although as yet it is not - save for the end May/early June and ditto June/July settled very warm spells.

Pressure remains very high over Greenland with the polar vortex exactly where we would want it to be in winter. As long as this remains the case there is no chance whatsoever of anything like 2006 occuring this summer.

My own previous thoughts of another settled spell to end July look like being put back. It is down to August to dry out the BBQ. So 'writing off' July in that sense is beginning to look less premature than it was - unless there is a dramatic change in the suggested pattern over the coming week or so. At present there is no sign of that at all.

Edited July 13, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Timmytour]

Those who are wanting hot plumes will be looking at the models and seeing them pulse NE'wards from southern europe through France and into central and eastern europe - firmly on the downstream ridge side of the jetstream that is focussed on our island - much as it has been in the last couple of summers.

I was tbh sceptical of another 2006 type summer early on, but equally I didn't expect a re-run of the last two summers either. To date we are closer to the last two years for sure, but what will determine the eventual outcome will be whether or not another very warm settled spell occurs in the second half of the summer, which we are now about to begin. This won't make another 2006, but it will be enough for hot weather wishers to have seen the 'improvement' they would want.

Each few days that passes, with the present pattern as currently modelled appearing to accelerate if anything, is tipping the pendulum more towards 07/08 copy. Although as yet it is not - save for the end May/early June and ditto June/July settled very warm spells.

Pressure remains very high over Greenland with the polar vortex exactly where we would want it to be in winter. As long as this remains the case there is no chance whatsoever of anything like 2006 occuring this summer.

My own previous thoughts of another settled spell to end July look like being put back. It is down to August to dry out the BBQ. So 'writing off' July in that sense is beginning to look less premature than it was - unless there is a dramatic change in the suggested pattern over the coming week or so. At present there is no sign of that at all.

Not so sure the end of July can be written off just yet, especially for more southern parts. In my view the models have been more and more willing to push the worse of the weather northwards with each run. I think it won't be long before they start showing a stronger ridge of high pressure from the Azores setting in to give us a fine spell of weather in the last week of July and the first part of August....before a spectacular breakdown

Edited July 13, 2009 by Timmytour

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Not so sure the end of July can be written off just yet, especially for more southern parts. In my view the models have been more and more willing to push the worse of the weather northwards with each run. I think it won't be long before they start showing a stronger ridge of high pressure from the Azores setting in to give us a fine spell of weather in the last week of July and the first part of August....before a spectacular breakdown

If you read what I suggested, I said that chances of a settled spell look like being put back. That is not writing it off Also if you read within the general context of the post you will see why I think it is looking less likely, But there is a difference between that and dismissing any potential changes completely. I also suggested that it would need a big change in the modelling in the next week or so to change the current pattern and jet stream trajectory. That gives a week or so at least for things to change. As unlikely as imo that is atm - it is not writing it off. At least yet.

But I have to say there is no real evidence of the jet moving northwards imo - indeed ECM suggests a reload of the current pattern this morning with a new low next week approaching from the south west and setting up another UK/atlantic trough to follow. With heights still firmly in control over Greenland.

[edveasey]

I think that July is not a done deal yet and could go two ways.

The way I'm reading it there is a real battle being fought right over us, the strong jet wants to scream weather quickly over the top of us, pushing the Spanish plume and HP to the south and east. But the way I'm reading the models is that the HP over Europe is going to be effecting our weather, stalling the lows to the west before pushing them northwards this would indicate that the south and east of the UK will be sunny warm or even hot from time to time, showers will be isolated and fronts will not produce a lot of rain. The pattern would be very much like what it was this weekend and today. I wouldn't be suprised at all if Kent and Sussex had very little rain over the next few weeks.

Edited July 13, 2009 by edveasey

[Methuselah]

Those who are wanting hot plumes will be looking at the models and seeing them pulse NE'wards from southern europe through France and into central and eastern europe - firmly on the downstream ridge side of the jetstream that is focussed on our island - much as it has been in the last couple of summers.

I was tbh sceptical of another 2006 type summer early on, but equally I didn't expect a re-run of the last two summers either. To date we are closer to the last two years for sure, but what will determine the eventual outcome will be whether or not another very warm settled spell occurs in the second half of the summer, which we are now about to begin. This won't make another 2006, but it will be enough for hot weather wishers to have seen the 'improvement' they would want.

Each few days that passes, with the present pattern as currently modelled appearing to accelerate if anything, is tipping the pendulum more towards 07/08 copy. Although as yet it is not - save for the end May/early June and ditto June/July settled very warm spells.

Pressure remains very high over Greenland with the polar vortex exactly where we would want it to be in winter. As long as this remains the case there is no chance whatsoever of anything like 2006 occuring this summer.

My own previous thoughts of another settled spell to end July look like being put back. It is down to August to dry out the BBQ. So 'writing off' July in that sense is beginning to look less premature than it was - unless there is a dramatic change in the suggested pattern over the coming week or so. At present there is no sign of that at all.

I think that that post sums the situation perfectly.

Everytime I go through the models, the same thing happens: just as a worthwhile ridge threatens, another low pressure approaches the southwest and it all seems to 'reload' again...

But, I do believe we are having a much sunnier summer so far than we had in 2007 or 2008?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think that that post sums the situation perfectly.

Everytime I go through the models, the same thing happens: just as a worthwhile ridge threatens, another low pressure approaches the southwest and it all seems to 'reload' again...

But, I do believe we are having a much sunnier summer so far than we had in 2007 or 2008?

I think the gist of what I am saying is that if the present pattern does not relent, and does reload, then it will become increasingly more akin to those years - in terms of synoptics with high pressure to the north and a southerly tracking atlantic jet stream. But as I stated, thus far the two warm settled spells we have seen have made something of a difference

Edited July 13, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Frosty.]

The models are all showing a very unsettled outlook for the rest of July which is very disappointing and indicates that this summer is beginning to go pear shaped although it's already a superior summer compared to last year. It looks like most days will have either showers or longer spells of rain but temps will be reasonable and it will be warm in any sunny spells. There are no positive signs on any model for a return to hot and sunny conditions which is just typical as we enter the main holiday season.

[Snow Queen one]

Going on holiday next weekend and just looked at the charts for the area i am going to Hereford and not happy with them. Looks like i will have to take the rain coats and wellies for my dog walks as there seems to be no let up in the unsettled spell we have. Shame.

I can only hope this poxy low will start to move away quicker and that the GFS is still behaving poorly

[William of Walworth]

The models are all showing a very unsettled outlook for the rest of July which is very disappointing and indicates that this summer is beginning to go pear shaped although it's already a superior summer compared to last year. It looks like most days will have either showers or longer spells of rain but temps will be reasonable and it will be warm in any sunny spells. There are no positive signs on any model for a return to hot and sunny conditions which is just typical as we enter the main holiday season.

I agree with this, sadly, and after catching up with everything posted on this thread since last Thursday (and also John's latest lrf update from the 10th), I'm pretty glum. This coming weekend in particular risks being very wet in places Friday and Saturday as matters now stand. Maybe a washout ....

We have a rare stay-at-home weekend coming up here in SW Wales, so I can take an LP dominated wet set up on the chin this time.

I haven't altogether written off next week completely though.

With almost no current evidence at all to support me yet, I have (hopecasting-based!) thoughts that we might see an improvement in the South for the following weekend, specifically the period Thursday 23rd-Sunday 26th, even if 'improvement' only amounts to 'somewhat drier'.

WOMAD (Malmesbury, Wilts) will be our second biggest festival of the summer over those dates, we all know prayer has no influence over what will happen but I'm praying for even a slight shift northwards of the Jet, that now dominant thing much hated by summer lovers/festival goers/all outdoor activity types such as I.

There was no washout or mudbath at Glastonbury end of June (24th-28th), and that was narrowly avoided too in the SW, just ahead of the real heatwave the following week. Not quite late enough yet to hope for avoiding a Wiltshire washout the last full weekend of July also, little chance of it being so warm as late June was though.

But if the charts/models are still stubbornly sticking to more of the Jet dominated same by say Saturday/Sunday, then even this instinctive optimist will start to lose it ...

Edited July 13, 2009 by William of Walworth