Model Output Discussion

[bluearmy]

Are the charts archived anywhere from a couple of weeks ago (i.e. during the good weather)? I want to compare what the jet stream was doing then compared with now, so I can educate myself.

i recall the jet being almost non existant for a couple of weeks around that time. this allowed the atlantic low to become 'cut off' which drove the heat up from the south. the absence of the jet and its subsequent return were well shown on the global NAEFFS model. compare to now and remember that as the timescale moves out, the jet should be shown to get weaker due to the spread of solutions. the jet continues to show in the atlantic out to T384 i'm afraid. although it looks to pull back towards the eastern seaboard, you want to see it completely absent from the area to our west if you're looking for an optimistic sign.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cart...h=192&map=1

[Jezzer]

i recall the jet being almost non existant for a couple of weeks around that time. this allowed the atlantic low to become 'cut off' which drove the heat up from the south. the absence of the jet and its subsequent return were well shown on the global NAEFFS model. compare to now and remember that as the timescale moves out, the jet should be shown to get weaker due to the spread of solutions. the jet continues to show in the atlantic out to T384 i'm afraid. although it looks to pull back towards the eastern seaboard, you want to see it completely absent from the area to our west if you're looking for an optimistic sign.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cart...h=192&map=1

The jet stream is really beginning to annoy me

[Costa Del Fal]

Oh dear, models don't look good at all. Low tracking Jet with LP systems for the the next few weeks and even though there will be a few nicer days in between the showers or longer spells of rain, generally this month is already over for Summer. To Aug and/or Sep it is then, for our chance of a prolonged warm spell.

Indeed. I think there is a bad pattern happening with our summers now. July looks pretty much over for summer. I wouldnt be surprised if August isnt much better.

[sundog]

What happened to the bbq summer???

Well we are about halfway through summer and so far its been average overall i think, but the next few weeks probably wont be great. But a bbq summer? I dont think so!

[Methuselah]

Cheers Pete, thinking along the right lines there, I'll get that in the log book! Any idea if this possible warm spell may materialise in the south east over the 24th, 25th and 26th July? Still a way off I know

I wouldn't dream of making any predictions, Jezzer; but, if 2 out of 3 days are fine, you won't fare to bad. Am I siitting on the fence, or what!

What happened to the bbq summer???

Well we are about halfway through summer and so far its been average overall i think, but the next few weeks probably wont be great. But a bbq summer? I dont think so!

I think it's all in the letter 'a' mate? We'll have a BBQ this summer!

[londonsnow]

What happened to the bbq summer???

Well we are about halfway through summer and so far its been average overall i think, but the next few weeks probably wont be great. But a bbq summer? I dont think so!

maybe we'll get a bbq autumn. model signals make the next week fairly average and very british weatherwise in the meantime

[hotsummer]

Well after that nice spell we had I said we probably will not see another settled/warm spell lasting as long again this summer! I still believe this with maybe the odd warm & sunny day or two but overall I feel we have seen the longest/hottest spell of summer 2009. We will continue to see what we are currently with the odd day or two hitting 23c - 25c in SE. Nothing over 28c again this summer.

Edited July 12, 2009 by hotsummer

[johnholmes]

still 19 days in July and 31 in August for things to 'turn around'.

no need for anyone to throw the towel in yet.

Not much chance of any prolonged heat for July I have to admit but we have to wait and see. Some slight signs that the anticipated warmth for late July is about 7-10 days late!

[MR EXTREMES]

this is not by far the end of summer would be silly to predict futher than a week.

and in any case it would seem that some have got used to the hot summers we have had and forgot that this what where having now is the norm this is typical summer weather.

its also in my mind a good thing if it stays average again this year because i can then again look forward to winter with not so much heat build up maybe another cool winter hopefully.

but by far i really feel summer will return soon but not prolonged heatwaves. :lol:

[londonsnow]

As a shower passes through parts of london the 12z paints a very damp picture. No sign of any sustained settled weather and no heatwave in sight. St Swithen's is on Wednesday. Will it or won't it? It probably will...

Edited July 12, 2009 by londonsnow

[I can't believe it's not better]

Looks like pressue may be on the way up in about a weeks time, hopefully.

It's silly to forecast more than a week out, but I'm expecting a pretty dry August. Not so sure about sunshine though. October, suprisingly dry too, probably quite cloudy though, or rain quite often but not much of it. Winter = wet :lol:

[TEITS]

I fear some are writing off July far to quickly.

Lets remember that +192 on the models only takes us to 20th July. Lets also remember that when it comes to model watching a hot/settled spell won't appear at +240 and work its way down to +0. The exact same happens in winter because how often does the GFS predict mild SW,lys until +384 only for a cold N or E,ly to appear at +168.

Fair enough the model output is awful at the moment but I seriously doubt the output in FI is correct because it rarely is. Like I said earlier I have a sneaky feeling a hot spell may emerge from the models in the near future for the period between 20th July onwards.

[Bristawl Si]

Looks like an average british summer to me at the mo. I can't see anything promising in the models for next 2 weeks. More of the same i fear.

Let's hope for a change in August.

[kold weather]

Of course to write off summer would be quite silly at this time, its like saying your footie team will lose with it being 0-0 and its not even quite half time yet.

Anyway for now blocking over Greenland still looks mighty impressive and we are really suffering form quite a supressed ITCZ, which in turn combined with the blocking in the Arctic region has forced the jet to stay quite surpressed. Overall the pattern probably won't be much below average because the depressions will no doubt lift up a certain amount of warmer air in the warm sector.

Its really in truth an old school English summer, not too far away what we've seen in recent summers, though I think its fair to say thus far this has been the best summer of the last 3.

[anvilhead]

looks lightly similar to the build up to the last heatwave we had to me - deep pool of cold air floods the atlantic, slowly moves westwards as it mixes in due to cyclogynesis, then leaves us in a southerly feed.

possibly.

[PB22]

Well its BBQ weather here today, and tomorrow, and Tuesday with plenty of fine and warm weather in store for southeastern Britain. Not so good further north and west with a number of showers about, and then as we head towards the end of the week we could see some very wet weather in the south, but as you will see, a lot of uncertainty in the models for T+120:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html - Very showery

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html - Showery

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html - Awful

[Methuselah]

Moderate rain, no wind, 14C, 94% RH, and blue sky approaching from the SSW. Tomorrow could be interesting?

[len]

A few years ago I used to post questions as to why the jet was always bifucated over the N. atlantic. (so that we never got to be North of it). I never did get an answer.

Now we have our third Summer of a unitary and Southerly-running Jet.

Suddenly we seem to be able to reside North of the complete jet (in Summer at least!)

And the models show this miserable scenario continuing.

Does anyone know why?

Why has the formerly quasi-permanent Atlantic-bifurcation disappeared?

Why is the Jet so far South?

Len

[chionomaniac]

I have been away for a few days and it is no surprise to see the same outlook when checking the models this evening.

On present evidence, any extreme heat is unlikely and we are running out of road w/r/t tropical forcing and the GWO.

Taking the likely MJO and GWO positions - heading towards phases 3/4 in harness - the composites for MJO phase 3 and GWO phase 4 are realistic forecasts of where we might be come month's end:

That is a +ve H5 anomaly over Scandinavia extending towards Iceland with surface winds coming from the east / NE. So a hint of slight change to the pattern programmed by the models but not the heatwave orginally thought but not too bad with pleasant temperatures away from the east coast.

Latest MJO forecasts below suggest that we are seeing some more tropical convection forecast in the west Pacific region, but propagation eastwards looks painfully slow.

GEFS forecast is hinting at entering phase 4 of the MJO orbit as you suggest GP.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...EFS_membera.gif

However I notice that there is a world of difference between phases 4 and 5 for July. If the MJO remains weak in amplitude through phase and convection gathers pace in the Pacific to quickly push us into phase 5 then what would be a Scandi HP may quickly be replaced by Scandi low pressure looking at the H500 anomaly chart.

It will be worth watching the pattern of tropical convection over the next few days!

[tinybill]

Well its BBQ weather here today, and tomorrow, and Tuesday with plenty of fine and warm weather in store for southeastern Britain. Not so good further north and west with a number of showers about, and then as we head to wards the end of the week we could see some very wet weather in the south, but as you will see, a lot of uncertainty in the models for T+120:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html - Very showery

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html - Showery

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html - Awful

Paul watched Jim bacon early on BBC he was not they optimistic for this week!!

[Scorcher]

A few years ago I used to post questions as to why the jet was always bifucated over the N. atlantic. (so that we never got to be North of it). I never did get an answer.

Now we have our third Summer of a unitary and Southerly-running Jet.

Suddenly we seem to be able to reside North of the complete jet (in Summer at least!)

And the models show this miserable scenario continuing.

Does anyone know why?

Why has the formerly quasi-permanent Atlantic-bifurcation disappeared?

Why is the Jet so far South?

Len

Related to the solar minimum perhaps? It seems odd to me too, as I don't recall the southerly tracking jet being such a major influence on summers before 2005.

[stewfox]

Indeed. I think there is a bad pattern happening with our summers now. July looks pretty much over for summer. I wouldnt be surprised if August isnt much better.

I dont come in here as much as I would like re time constraints

I would really like to see comments about the models ,every other post seems to be like the above ie a whinge based on nothing and has nothing to do with the models.

[johnholmes]

read the more restrained posters Stew-you must be aware who they are?

Far too early to be chucking in the towel-we had this 2 weeks prior to what for many ended up as a fairly warm spell-east coasts excepted.

[Snowyowl9]

Its really in truth an old school English summer, not too far away what we've seen in recent summers, though I think its fair to say thus far this has been the best summer of the last 3.

Depends when you call old school summers.

Use to get more dryer summers in the 70`s/80s and 1st half of the 90`s/2nd half 90`s to this decade which goes as the wettest with less settled spells.

ECM much the same.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

Edited July 12, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Cloud 10]

With charts like these maybe it will not be long before its time to

I am rather pessimistic about the prospects for the rest of the summer,probably due to the fact that over 6 inches of rain has fallen here since the start of June.

Should be some thunderstorms around this coming week so at least that makes it interesting. B)