Model Output Discussion

[bluearmy]

some wierd looking output ths morning with a p/v (in July!!) drifting from siberia to northern scandi over the next week.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php...ode=0&map=1

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php...ode=1&map=1

amazing how greenland is continually blocked for weeks now.

as i recall, summer 2006 had a poor first 3 weeks of august so i, for one, wouldnt be looking for a repeat of that!!

[Terminal Moraine]

If I'd sat here and drawn the charts myself I could hardly have done better than the GFS 06z from my perspective.

Whether or not they actually come to fruition is another matter but potentially we could be looking at a decidedly wet July in many areas.

[Methuselah]

If I'd sat here and drawn the charts myself I could hardly have done better than the GFS 06z from my perspective.

Whether or not they actually come to fruition is another matter but potentially we could be looking at a decidedly wet July in many areas.

That's true, TM. but, oddly enough, sunshine amounts mightn't be too bad??

[kold weather]

Yep the models are progging the PV to slowly head towards Scandinavia. This is combined with a -ve NAO look which has been in place for a while now. For the time of year the 850hpa profiles that PV creates are pretty decent as well, not al lthat common you see it moving that much in the summer months.

[Snowyowl9]

Looking at august 2006 there was a dry week at the beginning of the month,which I didn`t think there was but looking at my records it was,and very N-ly month it was overall and just an average month,but no greenland high just then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060808.gif

This is looking more unusual month to me,and wetter.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1681.gif

[Glacier Point]

some wierd looking output ths morning with a p/v (in July!!) drifting from siberia to northern scandi over the next week.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php...ode=0&map=1

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php...ode=1&map=1

amazing how greenland is continually blocked for weeks now.

as i recall, summer 2006 had a poor first 3 weeks of august so i, for one, wouldnt be looking for a repeat of that!!

polar field certainly reflecting a lack of tropical activity - take a look at the AO index for June - most negative in the 58 year time series..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ent.ascii.table

[geoffw]

offer us some hope gp?!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Looks like its going to be a wet week if this chart is to be believed.

yes.

The timing of this - towards end July into August - is perfectly timed to take advantage of our warmest time of year. Could records be under threat ?

What happenend to this?

[NorthantsSnow]

Friday looks incredibly wet as things stand with 50mm+ progged in the space of 24 hours for some areas including parts of Northamptonshire:

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs..../144/ukprec.png

But it is the GFS so at the moment I'll take it with a pinch of salt.

[Methuselah]

I know I'm clutching at straws here - but is there a 'suggestion' af an FI-plume?

[The PIT]

Summer delayed until September. Poor set of charts for those wanting sun and warmth. Brolley companies are the only ones taking people on. Government considering sending back illegal immigrants of fish as there's plenty of ponds and rivers for them to swim in. Brown considering rainfall tax to pay for national dept.

[ANYWEATHER]

Whatever way you look at it the models have got there hands into some dirty washing...oh sorry weather!!! :lol: :o ..........................

................................ :wacko: :unsure: :excl:

[Milhouse]

Summer delayed until September. Poor set of charts for those wanting sun and warmth. Brolley companies are the only ones taking people on. Government considering sending back illegal immigrants of fish as there's plenty of ponds and rivers for them to swim in. Brown considering rainfall tax to pay for national dept.

Summery weather does not always come courtesy of a huge HP stuck right over us. So what if there are a few showers now and again this week. I will certainly enjoy the promised sunshine inbetween and above average temperatures that are forecast for the south and east. 25c in the SE tomorrow is not to be sniffed at and, ignoring the 168h chart, the ECM does also indicate more settled weather and higher temperatures later on in the week.

[Snowyowl9]

I was just about to say there was a glimmer of hope with a nice change of wind direction from ECM friday.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

Then we`re heading back into 2007 territory.

:unsure:

I am still looking for 1 more settled spell this summer by the way.

Edited July 11, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Costa Del Fal]

I was just about to say there was a glimmer of hope with a nice change of wind direction from ECM friday.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

Then we`re heading back into 2007 territory. :wacko:

:unsure:

I am still looking for 1 more settled spell this summer by the way.

Just 1? We will be lucky to get anymore! Lol.

If we have any more a summer i would like to think there will be more than 1 settled spell on its way but soon i will be losing hope if the charts remain as awful as they are. Our summers are certainly getting messed up now and changing for the worse.

[PB22]

Not a lot to shout about in the model output tonight, but a lot of the week really doesn't look too bad at all for the southeast of Britain in particular, not that that is much consolation for those further north and west.

Monday:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.html = Showery for many, but southeast drier and warmer.

Tuesday:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.html = Very similar to Monday.

Wednesday:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html = Showers/rain for most.

Thursday:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html = Fine and warm towards southeast, showery further north/

Friday:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1441.html = Anyone's guess!

[Glacier Point]

What happenend to this?

On present evidence, any extreme heat is unlikely and we are running out of road w/r/t tropical forcing and the GWO.

Tendency in angular momentum is below average and the atmosphere is behaving more like La Nina.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/reanaly...m.sig.90day.gif

The speed and extent to which westerly winds were removed from the circulatory system is an important sub-seasonal issue. Far from above average angular momentum, we find ourselves mired in a low angular momentum base state despite the equatorial Pacific SSTAs being well above average.

Tropical convection is centred in the western / central Indian Ocean (MJO phase 2/3). The movement of this eastward looks to be painfully slow and ties in with forecasts for the MJO into phase 3/4 at low amplitude:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop..._CFSOP_GEFS.gif

SST departures in the eastern Indian Ocean are +1C. I'm expecting at least some rebound of total angular momentum which should see the MJO show a little higher amplitude into phase 3/4, allied to the SSTAs.

In terms of the GWO, frictional torques are helping to oppose the easterly winds coming out of the tropics. This is usually a precursor to increase in momentum transport across 30N and we should see the tendency in angular momentum increase driving the GWO towards phase 4:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/reanaly...ltauf.90day.gif

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

Taking the likely MJO and GWO positions - heading towards phases 3/4 in harness - the composites for MJO phase 3 and GWO phase 4 are realistic forecasts of where we might be come month's end:

That is a +ve H5 anomaly over Scandinavia extending towards Iceland with surface winds coming from the east / NE. So a hint of slight change to the pattern programmed by the models but not the heatwave orginally thought but not too bad with pleasant temperatures away from the east coast.

[Snowyowl9]

Just 1? We will be lucky to get anymore! Lol.

If we have any more a summer i would like to think there will be more than 1 settled spell on its way but soon i will be losing hope if the charts remain as awful as they are. Our summers are certainly getting messed up now and changing for the worse.

It seems hard work to get a decent settled spell last few years without any interupting showers.

Something like towards end of last July would be all I ask. About 9 dry days followed by thunderstorms,no desperate hurry yet.

Anyway GP`s post sounds more promising.

[The PIT]

Damn GP away from the east coast which general means the other side of the Pennines. Interesting that the atmosphere is behaving like La Nina. Is this a lag effect or due to the lack of solar activity????

[Glacier Point]

Given that this is symmertrical across two hemispheres, one in winter, the other summer, an external influence on the atmosphere would be a logical conclusion.

[tinybill]

well looking at the over night models say up to 19 July i can see deep gloom descending on here soon rain rain/thunderstorms/ to come!!

[Eugene]

Very nice GFS 00Z run for early next week, a shame its a massive hot outlier and as likely as england winning the ashes

ECM sticking to a cool northerly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Edited July 12, 2009 by Eugene

[Tucco]

ECM looking fairly cool and unsettled for next week.

More locally here rainfall is already at nearly 200% of monthly average, mainly due an intense storm earlier in the month. Mean temp look to fall back to average in the next few days after a warm start to the month.

3 wet summers in row looks a decent possibilty.

Mark,

Teesdale,Co Durham

[mushymanrob]

On present evidence, any extreme heat is unlikely and we are running out of road w/r/t tropical forcing and the GWO.

Tendency in angular momentum is below average and the atmosphere is behaving more like La Nina.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/reanaly...m.sig.90day.gif

The speed and extent to which westerly winds were removed from the circulatory system is an important sub-seasonal issue. Far from above average angular momentum, we find ourselves mired in a low angular momentum base state despite the equatorial Pacific SSTAs being well above average.

Tropical convection is centred in the western / central Indian Ocean (MJO phase 2/3). The movement of this eastward looks to be painfully slow and ties in with forecasts for the MJO into phase 3/4 at low amplitude:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop..._CFSOP_GEFS.gif

SST departures in the eastern Indian Ocean are +1C. I'm expecting at least some rebound of total angular momentum which should see the MJO show a little higher amplitude into phase 3/4, allied to the SSTAs.

In terms of the GWO, frictional torques are helping to oppose the easterly winds coming out of the tropics. This is usually a precursor to increase in momentum transport across 30N and we should see the tendency in angular momentum increase driving the GWO towards phase 4:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/reanaly...ltauf.90day.gif

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

Taking the likely MJO and GWO positions - heading towards phases 3/4 in harness - the composites for MJO phase 3 and GWO phase 4 are realistic forecasts of where we might be come month's end:

That is a +ve H5 anomaly over Scandinavia extending towards Iceland with surface winds coming from the east / NE. So a hint of slight change to the pattern programmed by the models but not the heatwave orginally thought but not too bad with pleasant temperatures away from the east coast.

may i ask , is it possible to get a heatwave here without all these composites falling into place? or is our weather inextricably linked to tropical convection etc in the indian/pacific oceans?

[Methuselah]

Just had a look at the GFS and fax runs: it looks as if, at least in the short-term, that the UK remains on the 'warm' side of the depressions. I'd expect to see temps a couple of degrees either side of average for much of the time, reasonable amounts of sunshine and the potential for some interesting showery activity...

No sign of anything very hot and settled on the horizon as yet. But, hey, it's Britain not the Sudan!