Model Output Discussion

[Methuselah]

It's not unheard of,but it is unusual. Still can't complain to much, this summer already beats the previous two summers hands down! As for the next few weeks looks pretty average to me!

I agree, Solar. I've hardly needed my heating since March!

[bluearmy]

anyone got any ideas as to how unusual it would be to see a p/v setting up second half of july. and on our side of the pole!! will help to keep that jet trundling away i'm afraid.

[Costa Del Fal]

It's very frustrating we are now in mid summer and the models just arent showing anything that good just an unsettled near average to slightly below average theme, i'm starting to lose interest in this summer now and looking forward to early autumn, last night recorded a ground frost in some rural areas which is incredible for mid July.

Did you ever look forward to summer in the first place?

Anyway, looking at the charts, nothing really sticks out at me although tomorrow evening looks pretty dire with quite a bit of rain. Next week for the first half it looks like a classic sunshine and shower event but in the sun it should feel quite nice so overall when out of the rain probably not too bad a week next week.

[Methuselah]

What time does the pub-run start oozing out?

[Alex95]

Although none of the models are showing this, I've got a gut feeling that we are in for a heatwave during late July / early August. The models are sometimes over progressive in FI, and there looks to be the possibility of a similar pattern to late July 2008? Looking at what is there though, I'm certainly hoping for a storm or two in what has already became a very thundery July here

[Snowyowl9]

Looks to me as if the rather dull wet weekend will be followed by a run of showery SW'lys, similar to what we had during 4-7 July, and little in the way of frontal activity, implying that there could well be a fair amount of sunshine in between the showers. In addition those who like their convective/thunderstorms may have a fair amount of storm watching to do next week.

So perhaps not the washout that some are suspecting? All in all it does look wet, but not particularly dull or cool.

Hardly had many showers inbetween those dates,as for thunderstorms the east will be getting those once again.

last night recorded a ground frost in some rural areas which is incredible for mid July.

I`ve never recorded a ground frost in July here since 1990,but I suspect there was some colder air further east last night.

anyone got any ideas as to how unusual it would be to see a p/v setting up second half of july. and on our side of the pole!! will help to keep that jet trundling away i'm afraid.

That sounds unusual.

A chart from ECM.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1921.gif

Edited July 10, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Mark.C]

For once Eugene, I understand your frustration. The temps are quite cool for nearly mid July and the models don't show much in the way of a settled spell so if this month was to have some pleasant days they would most likely be occuring towards the very end of July. Though there may be a few settled periods here and there, I think LP systems will be here for quite a while so I'm now looking to the start of Aug for the return of the real Summer!

Is there any of the models indicating that summer may make a comeback at the start of August, Im not too sure how to read the models correctly, thats the only reason im asking I need to learn how to read them properly

[johnholmes]

latest lrf link below

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1562470

[fine wine]

All in all I personally think we have done pretty well in the east for a period of weather that was described as 'terrible' by some folk on here a few days back. I guess it just goes to show that what ever the models show, it often isn't as bad or extreme as some may think and the reality is often a watered down version of what the charts show (although I accept this is not always the case). Also, I think its worth remembering that a lot of the younger members on here have only really experienced the relatively benign cold of the last 20 years and often warm/hot summers in contrast to the what older folk have experienced if we go back to the 60's , 70's, and 80's. I know this probably sounds rather patronising but its worth remembering when charts are being perceived as bad or terrible by the younger members, when of course the reality is that they are perfectly normaql in an average UK summer.

Edited July 10, 2009 by fine wine

[Derp Patrol]

It's very frustrating we are now in mid summer and the models just arent showing anything that good just an unsettled near average to slightly below average theme, i'm starting to lose interest in this summer now and looking forward to early autumn, last night recorded a ground frost in some rural areas which is incredible for mid July.

I do agree somewhat with the first half of your post, it is very dissapointing.. Looks like a fairly cool week ahead with temps slightly below average and always the chance of a shower..however I don't see how you can lose interest in summer, because we have the rest of July, August and maybe September for better weather.

To the post above, yes, it isn't terrible - it has certainly been better than last summer so far, but I think people are annoyed because there doesn't look like there will be a change in patterns for a while. You could say that this weather is average, but it is quite unusual to have the same pattern continuing for weeks on end which this one could do. I would be fine if we had a mixture of warmer and cooler spells, but it doesn't look like this will happen.

Anyway, don't lose faith with the rest of July yet, there are still nearly 3 weeks left and noone can be sure of what will happen after 5 days..

Edited July 10, 2009 by robthefool

[Bartlett Low]

but it is quite unusual to have the same pattern continuing for weeks on end which this one could do.

Not unusual, happens most years at some point in the year, check last December for starters.

Edited July 10, 2009 by Bartlett Low

[Derp Patrol]

But for Summer in general it is more unusual to get long periods of the same type of weather, in winter it is less unusual because the jet is further south e.t.c

[J07]

I know it's quiet but can we please stay on topic guys? If you wish you can start a topic on Florida's Vs New Zealand Vs Uk Heat in the appropriate forum. Thanks :lol:

I was just looking for clarification of what Optimus Prime was trying to say. Of course the heat in Florida is not "more comfortable" than that in the UK, hence it's an absurd statement. When does the UK see temperatures of 33C with dewpoints of 24C? Answer: never. When does Miami see such conditions? Answer: most days during the wet season.

But I wasn't sure if that's what OP was trying to say, hence I asked if he was talking about Florida. NZ is irrelevant to the discussion, it has no bearing and I don't know why he brought it up.

If you're going to delete off topic posts why not show some consistency and delete the remainder of the irrelevant Florida postings.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

And back to the models...

GEFS not throwing any heatwave into the mix, but in the same breath, its not throwing any depressing in.

Temps close to average (a little below in the north, a little above in the south?). Rainfall looking like being on and off, but no heavy showers thrown in the mix (after tonight/tomorrow morning). Pressure looks like remaining around the 1020mb for central England.

Overall, its a bit of what we've had recently. But to be fair, yesterday was lovely. Sunshine and cloud, and about 20oC. Hardly any wind either.

[ANYWEATHER]

And back to the models...

GEFS not throwing any heatwave into the mix, but in the same breath, its not throwing any depressing in.

Temps close to average (a little below in the north, a little above in the south?). Rainfall looking like being on and off, but no heavy showers thrown in the mix (after tonight/tomorrow morning). Pressure looks like remaining around the 1020mb for central England.

Overall, its a bit of what we've had recently. But to be fair, yesterday was lovely. Sunshine and cloud, and about 20oC. Hardly any wind either.

Not be picky ,but where is the pressure of 1020mbs for central England for anywhere in the "reliable" time frame? Here is a chart for next week ,dominated by low pressure.....? :lol:

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi AW.

My comments are in general over the next 2 weeks.

Here are the ensembles for Derbyshire:

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi AW.

My comments are in general over the next 2 weeks.

Here are the ensembles for Derbyshire:

Cheers for that. I hope you did not mind me saying, although right up to this time next week the ecm and [gfs] show low pressure in charge? :lol:

[mushymanrob]

plenty of uncertainty even at t96. the gfs suggests a mini settled spell on friday as a shallow ridge passes over us whilst the ecm is having nothing of it and keeps the low in control... the poor runs (poor for summer weather) continue with charts dominated by mobile atlantic weather. :lol:

summer is slipping by, slowly passing us by as we wait for more decent weather.

Edited July 11, 2009 by mushymanrob

[johnholmes]

I was just looking for clarification of what Optimus Prime was trying to say. Of course the heat in Florida is not "more comfortable" than that in the UK, hence it's an absurd statement. When does the UK see temperatures of 33C with dewpoints of 24C? Answer: never. When does Miami see such conditions? Answer: most days during the wet season.

But I wasn't sure if that's what OP was trying to say, hence I asked if he was talking about Florida. NZ is irrelevant to the discussion, it has no bearing and I don't know why he brought it up.

If you're going to delete off topic posts why not show some consistency and delete the remainder of the irrelevant Florida postings.

rather than keep it going mate hit the report button or do it by pm PLEASE?

[Eugene]

Another cool northerly according to ECM 00Z, ensembles are well disappointing too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

[mountain shadow]

Another cool northerly according to ECM 00Z, ensembles are well disappointing too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Indeed Eugene, model output for the next two weeks looking very poor for any prolonged settled spell. Awful stuff. Good the developing El Nino be playing a part?

[Thundery wintry showers]

It is getting like last summer where the model output thread is dominated by the simplistic assumption "unsettled = cool and cloudy, settled = warm and sunny" type thing, similar to the "in spring, cold = dull and damp, warm = sunny and dry" assumption. True, in high summer there does tend to be an inverse correlation between sunshine and rainfall and low pressure, but it is only a correlation. The settled spell at the end of last August was, for most, the dullest of the whole month.

People are of course entitled to dislike sunshine and showers, near-average temperatures and chances of a thunderstorm (which is basically what next week has in store for most of us) but that's not really the issue, it's more that there's some over-simplistic negativity going on.

Where people are right is that it looks like turning dull and wet again into next weekend (so two dull wet weekends in a row are likely) as the next lot of Atlantic fronts come piling in. There is, as Mushy suggested, much uncertainty past T+96 though.

[Methuselah]

From my perusal of the fax charts today, 'interesting' might be a useful adjective for describing next week's weather; it looks as if there'll be just about everything at some time or another. However, for my-own area a few choice expletives could also be thrown in for good measure...

As Tamara said a few weeks' back, this summer's pattern is definitely closer to last year's than to 2006's!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

From my perusal of the fax charts today, 'interesting' might be a useful adjective for describing next week's weather; it looks as if there'll be just about everything at some time or another. However, for my-own area a few choice expletives could also be thrown in for good measure...

As Tamara said a few weeks' back, this summer's pattern is definitely closer to last year's than to 2006's!

Just tried to send a post along the lines of that subject Pete - but my computer (courtesy of BT provider) is still playing tricks with me!

Not hard to see why both ECM and GEM suggest a shallow low moving north and developing into a complex low as it moves across eastern parts of the UK into Denmark and Scandinavia. Cool northerlies meeting warm southerlies...result, things go 'bang!' somewhere. Sunshine and thundery downpours is the theme and if the pattern suggested in the longer range modelling verifies then a lot of rain with embedded thunderstorms could occur. Which is very reminiscent of 2007 and to a certain degree last year. The sunny very warm spells of end May/early June and end June/early July are making the difference atm. But this certainly aint no summer 2006.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the pattern repeat and us see another settled summer spell to end this month. But we shall see. There is no sign of things settling down at all atm.

Edited July 11, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Methuselah]

But, up and till Wednesday at least, we are all on the 'interesting' side of that pesky depression???