Model Output Discussion

[bluearmy]

ecm 12z develops a cut off low to our west and the resultant atlantic trough is similar to the gem 00z run. keep watching for this - it may be a little progressive in developing this but it certainly doesnt look like a 'poor summer run' beyond the reliable timeframe!!

Edited July 6, 2009 by bluearmy

[damianslaw]

Generally an unsettled outlook for the foreseeable future. Very much a sunshine and showers regime, with the showers becoming confined to the NE by Thursday. No real settled spell on the way, Friday may be a good day for many but low pressure looks like moving in during the weekend, the east could stay reasonably dry and fairly warm - low 20's, nothing special.

As I said on Sunday expect the cooler unsettled weather to continue for a couple of weeks or so with a southerly jet and heights to the north. However,the synoptics look ideal for another reload situation of last week before the months end, however, I think any cut off low to the SW will have much more of an influence on conditions next time around unlike last week, the jet is becoming more active as it should be at this time of year, this isn't looking like a predominantly settled summer with high pressure overhead a la July 2006 or indeed that wonderful july/august of 1995. I'm anticipating a wet August.

[Costa Del Fal]

Man, how do you do it? EVERY single post is just plain pessimism and to be quite honest with you, you don't have a clue what's going on. People say don't respond to your posts but I'm just absolutely baffled at what you say. There are experts on here who say that towards the end of this month things should warm up considerably but also the threat of thundery weather exists.

Eugene, you must know by now that your posts are just not helping the model output discussion, your view is not balanced, it's just one sided. For if only one day out of the month was cooler than average and the rest were very warm or hot, you would be talking about the cooler day and then start saying that it proves this year will be another 2007.

I wish someone would ban you from here. Where the hell is the ignore option??

I agree, the posts have 'Depressing' written all over them. The British weather is so changeable-that what makes it so good but Eugene'sposts are all about the bad points. Eugene mentions how July is too early to start talking about Winter-thats completely right but im unsure about Eugene.

Could you be positive please otherwise im delving into the Ignore button too-its that bad i dont find the posts funny no more.

Anyway, things look a bit better by the weekend. Nothing spectacular but a bit warmer and a bit more settled. The posts about Late July/Early August are interesting-like the idea of a possible very warm/hot and thundery spells which could happen. Still, there is plenty of time for change yet but hey i think this summer has been pretty good so far and much better than 2007 and 2008 hasnt it Eugene.

[johnholmes]

a quick post looking beyond the next 7-14 days or so.

To me most factors suggest that its a warmer outlook starting about the 3rd week of July; just how warm is uncertain yet, a good many bits of the jigsaw to drop into place for any real certainty. As I suggested in my lrf I believe it should be clearer by the end of this week.

Forget ideas of a 2007 summer-how warm is still open but I'd suggest the meteorological summer will turn out with above average temperatures for most of the country.

Perhaps the main feature when we look back could be a trough west of the UK, with highish pressure in a belt from NW out to the east of the country as the two main synoptic features.

Edited July 6, 2009 by johnholmes

[fine wine]

Poor output again tonight i`m sure we're all used to it now, just been browsing through the ensembles on meteociel and next week is looking extremely poor indeed with atlantic lows coming at us one after another, things are so bad TWO model chat is dead and they have reverted to talking of winter 2009/10 prospects in early July<LOL wow even i feel early July is way too early to be thinking of winter, i`m looking ahead to late July into August for maybe some improvement, it must get better because it really can't get much worse than the outlook for the next two weeks.

Eugene, its worth noting that yesterday was the end of the fine, warm and often hot spell. If the charts verfiy, its going to be a case of 4 days of showery weather before settling down (although only for 2 -3 days at this stage). Look at next Monday, not too bad at all with highs up to 24c. Friday, Saturday and Sunday all see predicted high of 20 - 22c - very pleasant, not extremely poor. I really cannot understand how you you come to these conclusions.

Monday_13th.htm

Edited July 6, 2009 by fine wine

[chapmanslade]

i must carefully what i say looks not to good up to 14 July at the moment it will warm up I'm on Holiday a week later for 2 weeks one of I'm on the isle of white for a week!!!

Any chance of a bit of punctuation matey - It may even make sense then

Ensembles seem to suggest a warmer spell again - as I suggested a few days ago, default GFS atalantic weather until it picks up on a signal for something else.

Edited July 6, 2009 by chapmanslade

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Any chance of a bit of punctuation matey - It may even make sense then

I wouldn't bother reading any of his posts, they usually consist of a lot of garbled nonsense, and i very much doubt he reads any posts.

Decent CAPE values for tomorrow, another stormy day in the east?

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Please try not to post personal comments or insults towards another member, no matter how annoying you find them.

It might be a good idea to use the ignore button so we don't go round in circles on this negative posting matter

[Bottesford]

Yep seconded - lets keep it model based or posts may go walkies...

[mushymanrob]

well after a long weekend break i come back to find that tbh, eugenes latest post isnt actually THAT far from being correct! looking at the latest runs it does look pretty poor for the next 2 weeks or so. he did say that he was looking to late july/august before theres any return to any better weather and this is in line with what gp and chiono are saying.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Models are actually continuing the general theme for summer 2009, i.e. we are having a generally average UK summer, which to be honest is quite welcome. Some hotter spells, some cooler spells, wetter periods, drier periods. No extremes, and not too much drama, which, following on from a thoroughly average winter, is in many ways nice to see - UK-type weather is still very much possible in the UK !!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Today will be the last of the really showery days, though there will be scattered showers about tomorrow. A more modified northerly flow is set to arrive on Thursday which should dry things up. Ironically cloud cover is likely to increase in the east as it turns drier, as a lot of stable weather cloud (stratocumulus) is likely, but the west should have long sunny periods.

Looks like the weekend could be quite a wet one, but with a slow jet perhaps a return to sunshine and showers early next week.

If the theme for sunshine and showers continues we could end up with a wet but fairly sunny July- that's certainly the way the first week is going (Philip Eden has England & Wales at 161% of normal rain and 144% of normal sun for 1-6 July- which is remarkable for this time of year!) However I envisage a warmer drier second half.

Edited July 7, 2009 by Thundery wintry showers

[Timmytour]

In the talk of what kind of summer we have, I would suggest when we look back that it's going to be hard to come up with a description that neatly describes the whole of the UK.

While overall I think it will be a reasonable summer, I think the prospects for a fond recall of it are greatest in southern and western parts while more northern and eastern areas might not see it comparing favourably with others they have had. Either way I can't see any extreme quality to the descriptions...just "a bit better than usual" or "not as good as some we've had".

For those who love their thunderstorms I'm looking towards the end of the first week of August as the beginning of a few days of the greatest activity. Throughout summer of course there will be potential. However only in those few days do I forsee anything that could get near the description of spectacular. above all the activity will fit into the realms of being average....just like the summer itself.

[Methuselah]

Thismorning's run not looking too bad: never too cold, not a lot of wind, average (maybe a little above at times) temps, even some potential for storms...

Typical British July stuff.

[conor123]

It seems the blast of hot air which looks set to go through Europe Sunday/Monday ish is looking increasingly near to the UK on each run with the 06z having 850 pHa temps of 13/14 in the South East.

All it would take is a bit of a shift in angle of that low to the west to drag southerly winds up and give a brief hot & thundery spell of weather, certainly worth watching.

[Duncan McAlister]

Is the appearance of the -10C isotherm on the 06z not awfully early?

Also the -5C isotherm into Scandinavia. True it's too early to be thinking about autumn, but I'd rather have an early autumn than crap summer

[MR EXTREMES]

i hope we maintain cool showery weather after all with a outbreak of swine flu in my kids school and reports of peeps temps of 102f are rather scary dont need no heat right now

[William of Walworth]

Today will be the last of the really showery days, though there will be scattered showers about tomorrow. A more modified northerly flow is set to arrive on Thursday which should dry things up. Ironically cloud cover is likely to increase in the east as it turns drier, as a lot of stable weather cloud (stratocumulus) is likely, but the west should have long sunny periods.

Looks like the weekend could be quite a wet one, but with a slow jet perhaps a return to sunshine and showers early next week.

That's a very good summary TWS, thankyou. Kind of how I'm reading things myself at the moment.

My hopes of a somewhat less wet weekend (Sat and Sun) than currently progged are not very high, but at least here in Wales we should get some drier weather Thursday and Friday, not too bad for the start of the cricket -- my friends are going to Cardiff for the Test tomorow and after, and they've been anxiously asking me what to expect.

Later on I'll be telling them quite a mixture over the five days!

i hope we maintain cool showery weather after all with a outbreak of swine flu in my kids school and reports of peeps temps of 102f are rather scary dont need no heat right now

I think you're surely safe from any real heat for the moment.

By the time it returns (as I sincerely continue to hope for late July!) school terms will have ended .....

[edveasey]

Really interestnig change in the GFS 06 run as compared to the GFS 00 run next week it seems to me that there is now a possiblity of a blocking high becoming temporarily established over germany - scandanavia area that looks to me if the trending of this situation continues that it'll link into the Azores high and have a real effect on the weather in the south of the UK.

If this situation developes I don't think it'll last long enough to build any hot weather but certainly wotrh keeping an eye on over the next few days.

Anyone else have any thoughts on this.

[Snowyowl9]

A cool but at least dry, probably cloudy end to this week,last time I looked at the uppers they were higher, well it is a NW-ly after all,4 days of NW-lys including today.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn602.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn6017.png

Edited July 7, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Glacier Point]

06z GFS brings the model into line with GEM and ECM in terms of developing a stalling long wave trough in the eastern Atlantic / west of the UK t144+

Twin centres of tropical convection are present in the Indian and Pacific Ocean. The one centred in around 180 W is increasing in size and must be causing the models problems.

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/m...m/OLR/m.3d.html

This is similar to MJO phase 7/8 in impact.

Tendency in angular momentum is increasing, both in the tropics and extratropics. As a result, the GWO is heading towards phase 4:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

This is a signal for height rises to our east.

The question of whether or not the trough will stall is now settled in my mind. Now it becomes a question of how far west the trough will stall and whether it disrupts enough to allow what will be a warm plume to back west towards the UK.

Edited July 7, 2009 by Glacier Point

[chionomaniac]

I guess this pattern of tropical convection is affecting the MJO forecasts as well. They have consistently tried to suggest that the MJO will move back into phases 1-2 over the past two weeks, whilst in fact, even though the amplitude has been weak, we have been moving in an opposite direction. It is akin to a car driving anticlockwise around the M25 to get to Heathrow. We have passed Heathrow some time ago, the satnav says turn around and go clockwise but the driver ignores this and carries on anticlockwise. The fact is that we will reach the same point this way as well, eventually, but we may not have as many jams this way. If one considers the jams as lower pressure systems then if we carry on with the clockwise route then we should have far better weather along the way!

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/m...Last40days.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop..._CFSOP_GEFS.gif

[TEITS]

Interesting to note the 06Z was an outlier especially if you look at the Berlin ensembles.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens..../t850Berlin.png

So could this be a new trend which the operationals will continue with or will it the 12Z back the ensembles.

My gut instinct is telling me the LP to the W of the UK will be too far E meaning the hot plume will not affect the UK. However I would love to be wrong.

P.S the models show why writing off July this early is very silly. Take note Eugene!!

[PB22]

The 12z GFS continues the trend from the 06z run by the looks of things, with warm air never far away from the southeast by the time we get to next week. Indeed, a warm plume passes through on Sunday, albeit with some unsettled conditions:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1202.html

Then after that its all eyes down south to see if we can draw up some much warmer conditions:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1442.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1682.html

Obviously its all a long way off, but the signs from the overall model output are certainly far more encouraging for the medium term than they were yesterday, and the ECM/GFS are not a million miles apart for next Tuesday at this moment in time:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

[PB22]

Our local forecast just now has 25C for Sunday!

12z UKMO keeps the changeable theme going, but does show strong hints of a warming trend from the south for next week:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html