Model Output Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

It doesnt look that Bad next week IMO. Yes on some days it looks like rain will affect some but other days will see good amounts fo sunshine and scattered showers with temperatures near enough Average. GFS is under cooking temperatures i think. Expect on nice days to see temperatures from 18c-21c imo.

I have to laugh at the posts which try to convince you that summer is over-winter is on its way soon Eugene isnt it.

[ribster]

Well, to get an average month (difficult these days), we need some cool spells. However I doubt next week will come in more than a degree below average, and most certainly the south Midlands wont see maxima in the mid teens! Nor is it likely to be dull or wet! Where does this guy get them from :lol:

Before the lets all jump on Eugene again, which I'm getting a little tired of, did we not have quite a run of below average months relatively recently. On top of which, it is forecast to be wet here next week, all be it only showers, some heavy at times, so not quite sure where you 'get them from'.

[TonyH]

Before the lets all jump on Eugene again, which I'm getting a little tired of, did we not have quite a run of below average months relatively recently. On top of which, it is forecast to be wet here next week, all be it only showers, some heavy at times, so not quite sure where you 'get them from'. :o

Apologies, by 'these days' I was referring longer term than 2009 (which has on the whole been mild so far?), as it is difficult to get a proper cool month over recent years.

We will see, but I doubt its going to be that 'wet' anywhere.. in any case a wetter than average week would be good for the gardens, water supply, etc, would it not?

Edited July 4, 2009 by Tonyh

[TEITS]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

A prolonged cool unsettled spell looking likely, average maxs are 22C in July for the south midlands so not looking forward to maxs in the mid teens by mid week with lots of cloud and some rain, cool northerly airflow followed by southerly tracking jet.

Im not even sure why im bothering to respond but here goes.

Early next week will be unsettled due to the LP but the conditions you describe for midweek is incorrect. The likely pattern of a N,ly in the summer is sunshine and showers with these mainly in N/E areas. For other locations, especially in the S, the likely pattern is going to be sunny intervals/spells with only fair weather cumulus clouds. The temps will range between slightly below average (especially under showers) to around or near average in the sunshine.

[Derp Patrol]

Nothing disastrous in my point of view in the SE. Yes it might feel a bit chilly in the evenings, and temps below average or average in the low 20s, but it will feel very pleasant in the sunshine - at least it will not be that wet. I struggle to remember the last time we had proper rain... we had a very small shower yesterday morning.. but the last time I remember getting rain before this was from a thunderstorm a couple of weeks ago. It has been very dry here which has been good, but the cloud cover has spoiled otherwise what I would call a decent June.

[damianslaw]

Lots of 'average' weather in the colming days, southern parts look like fairing better with less in the way of showers and much more prolonged sunshine than the north, temps near average for many perhaps a little below over Scotland and NE England.

I don't foresee a return to the heatwave conditions of last week in the immediate future, I think we are in for 2-3 weeks of fairly unsettled conditions with the atlantic ruling the roost, however, late July will see a return to warm dry weather but doubt it will be comparable to waht we have just seen.

Nice to see a northerly next week developing, some lovely clear conditions for many, compared to the heat haze we have endured over the past week, and very little humidity can't get much better than a northerly if you don't like humidity, so a much better week for getting to sleep in, I'm quite washed out this weekend due to lack of sleep in recent nights, its not how I want to feel at the weekend, my energy levels are sapped it seems..good riddance to that humidity.

[Methuselah]

The late Michael Hunt (Anglia TV) once explained that, in a NNW airstream with SLP <1012mb, East Anglia and the SE might expect some quite spectacular thunderstorms...So, stop whingeing guys...That guy was an icon for me! :o :o

[evil monkey]

The late Michael Hunt (Anglia TV) once explained that, in a NNW airstream with SLP <1012mb, East Anglia and the SE might expect some quite spectacular thunderstorms...So, stop whingeing guys...That guy was an icon for me! :huh:

Sorry O/T but I remember Micheal Hunt & his handlebar moustache!

[Eugene]

Surprised we haven't seen steve murr about posting, lots of high lattitude blocking on tonights runs /ensembles and a southerly tracking reinvigorated jet, only good run tonight is UKMO 12Z raw output which is completely on it's own and looks to me a faulty run tonight's T+120 hrs fax will show what the pro's think of it, same as me i bet.

I'm sure if we had a deep southerly flow in January the winter is over posts would be out in force.

Edited July 4, 2009 by Eugene

[bluearmy]

Surprised we haven't seen steve murr about posting, lots of high lattitude blocking on tonights runs /ensembles and a southerly tracking reinvigorated jet, only good run tonight is UKMO 12Z raw output which is completely on it's own and looks to me a faulty run tonight's T+120 hrs fax will show what the pro's think of it, same as me i bet.

I'm sure if we had a deep southerly flow in January the winter is over posts would be out in force.

indeed eugene they would - and they'd be just as wrong as the 'summer over' ones you'll see this week.

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like a balancing out situation after last weeks heatwave with a cool bright showery NW-ly.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm961.gif

Then after the dissapointing end to last week thunderstorm wise,theres always another chance when theres a low over us to bring just that although it does look abit cool.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1921.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm2161.gif

[jam]

Surprised we haven't seen steve murr about posting, lots of high lattitude blocking on tonights runs /ensembles and a southerly tracking reinvigorated jet, only good run tonight is UKMO 12Z raw output which is completely on it's own and looks to me a faulty run tonight's T+120 hrs fax will show what the pro's think of it, same as me i bet.

I'm sure if we had a deep southerly flow in January the winter is over posts would be out in force.

There is no such thing as a '' faulty run'' countless calculations from numerous sources do not produce wrong. Proved inaccurate in the end perhaps but how can you say its faulty before the 'event'?

[The PIT]

There is no such thing as a '' faulty run'' countless calculations from numerous sources do not produce wrong. Proved inaccurate in the end perhaps but how can you say its faulty before the 'event'?

Oh yes there is. Rubbish in rubbish out. We've seen dodgy data before but it can give some interesting runs.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Sorry O/T but I remember Micheal Hunt & his handlebar moustache!

I hope people don't call him Mike.

Cool maxes by next Friday

[Toppler]

indeed eugene they would - and they'd be just as wrong as the 'summer over' ones you'll see this week.

I agree

[The PIT]

Surprised we haven't seen steve murr about posting, lots of high lattitude blocking on tonights runs /ensembles and a southerly tracking reinvigorated jet, only good run tonight is UKMO 12Z raw output which is completely on it's own and looks to me a faulty run tonight's T+120 hrs fax will show what the pro's think of it, same as me i bet.

I'm sure if we had a deep southerly flow in January the winter is over posts would be out in force.

Can't see anything wrong with the run no missing data (maps) even a hint of what GP posted a week or more back in deep FI.

[bluearmy]

as eugene correctly forecast (not that many would have disagreed), the T120 FAX is rather more ecm than ukmo.

[chapmanslade]

I hope people don't call him Mike.

Cool maxes by next Friday

And they will not happen - look at what was predicted for Friday this week a week ago - very similar maxes but the reality was far different.

[Derp Patrol]

I hope people don't call him Mike.

Cool maxes by next Friday

That is just laughable . 15C maxes in southern England is barely possible in July, GFS really does mess up on temps sometimes.. I expect that maxes will be at least 4C-6C higher than what is being shown in some places..

[tinybill]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/...st_weather.html

well looking at that max temp of 19!! for the end of the week

http://ows-public.sembach.af.mil/index.cfm...STANDARD_12.gif

looks interesting for Ireland and the west country to day!!

Edited July 5, 2009 by tinybill

[Glacier Point]

Starting to think that we may be looking at another Atlantic trough within the next 10 days, although this one will not have tropical forcing support and is not likely to be as extreme as the present one.

Total angular momentum is below -1 SD although much of this negative (easterly) wind contribution comes from dissapation of westerly winds in the southern hemipshere.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/reanaly...m.sig.90day.gif

A similar process has taken place in northern hemisphere although postive mountain torques are starting to shift against this and add westerly winds to the system as tendency in angular momentum is up driving the GWO towards phase 3:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/reanaly...ltaum.90day.gif

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/reanaly...d.sig.90day.gif

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

The MJO has become slow moving and incoherent. However, the tropics are extremely interesting with three significant centres of convection - western Indian Ocean, west Pacific and around the dateline - and the location for convection to develop further will have a profound influence on weather patterns over the next 10+ days.

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/m...m/OLR/m.3d.html

Latest tropical wave tracking and sattelite data suggests that the convection around the dateline is expanding and the convective centre over the far western Pacific is drifting slowly eastwards (towards the dateline convective centre).

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...s/wavetrkP.html

Models are largely going for the convective centre over the Indian Ocean to take the lead. However, this is far from certain and MJO forecasts show the fundamental splits in how to programme the convective centre:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop..._CFSOP_GEFS.gif

There is a huge difference in synoptic patterns from phase 1 to phase 3, phase 3 loosely teleconnecting to a ridge just to the west of the UK.

All of this suggests to me that tropical signals are confused and weak and that leaves the door open for the tendency for troughing in the Atlantic to reassert:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Interestingly, composites for phase 4 of the GWO are consistent with height rises over Scandinavia and troughing in the Atlantic.

So the expectation would be for pressure to fall in the Atlantic and rise over the UK day 6-7 onwards re-introducing the warmer, settled weather. To reiterate though, this one is unlikely to be associated with hot conditions, more above average. Prospects for the vaunted end July/early August heatwave remain possible although the tropics need to start to show signs of activity for us to have confidence in this.

[Lincs Observation]

So the expectation would be for pressure to fall in the Atlantic and rise over the UK day 6-7 onwards re-introducing the warmer, settled weather. To reiterate though, this one is unlikely to be associated with hot conditions, more above average. Prospects for the vaunted end July/early August heatwave remain possible although the tropics need to start to show signs of activity for us to have confidence in this.

Morning GP

Again another excellent breakdown of what your feelings are, i do however feel like ive just heard the budget give a little take a little in regards the last highlighted paragraph.

i think the rumors over the end of july state of affairs is always going to be guess work, however id be pleased to see what you suggest come off. what is nice is the possibility of what i think is starting to shape up as a slightly above average summer, to have more settled conditions around 6-7 days onward is fantanstic, however up to that point i feel conditions will be like a normal british summer anyway.

what a marked contrast to the last two years so far, i made the comment that i just felt that this summer would be a whole lot better way back in March and im so pleased it has.

As for this week well i for one really dont mind that its going to be unsettled a bit, gives most restbite from the heat and allow the uk to green up a bit. I do agree though that temps punted at this week look a little off the mark id expect temps to be around the high teens to low twenties this week broadly.

LO

[Methuselah]

Looks like classic sunshine and showers for today and tomorrow. And, I wouldn't be surprised at all if some peeps record large rainfall and/or hail tomorrow - those showers look likely to be VERY slow moving!

However, some places will miss out completely...

[bluearmy]

the NAEFFS ens mean has been consistent in showing a warmimg scandi around mid month. the long wave trough (as much as one is shown on an ens mean chart 2 weeks away) is in our vicinity or just to our west. kind of get the feeling that this set up will retrogess somewhat as we get nearer the time which would be in line with GP's musings above.

[johnholmes]

my own take would be that the temperature increase is likely to be into the warm, possibly very warm category, rather than the hot one this next time (late July-early Aug), at least in its first phase. IF things go as Stewart (GP) suggests and the Tropics start to show signs of activity then it could become hot again. As always though where the major 500mb trough sets up is the key and this is unlikely to be known for 7-10 days.

For the current predicted cooler spell with surface and upper flow from a N of W direction-then I reckon its 7-10 days for this to play out, maybe a day or two less.

ps

it might be more accurate to describe it as a less warm spell rather than a cool one; only for a couple of days do many places look like being in that category but then our doomsayers will no doubt show us otherwise!

Edited July 5, 2009 by johnholmes