Model Output Discussion

[jo200199]

2008 only had close to average temps because of high night time temperatures. Most of the summer in the SE consisted of temps in the high teens and low twenties, below the July average of about 22C-23C. The other poor aspect of the last 2 summers was the lack of any lengthy settled spells, only a short period last year in July which bought a few days of sunny weather and very warm temperatures. The last two years also saw the 30C just broken on only a few days and other than that practically the whole time it was either raining or cloudy.

Just because the mean temperatures were close to average, it does not mean that a summer can be considered good, other factors including rainfall and sunshine should be included, who would want a summer with 22C everyday with grey cloudy skies?

Not me !!! I enjoy the heat when it isn't cloudy, I hate that muggy feeling. Great listening to what all your ideas are everyone. I wish I understood all of this like you, but it makes for interesting reading.

[chionomaniac]

The MJO remains weak and is showing signs of returning to orbiting phase 1 as the forecasts have suggested over the last two weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/m...Last40days.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop..._CFSOP_GEFS.gif

Significant MJO activity is not expected in the next two weeks. The increase in tropical convection seen in the Arabian Sea area has probably overshadowed the area of new tropical convection that GP highlighted the other day near the dateline. One can see the growth of convection which is shown by blues and purple on the OLR charts.

2-4 July

5-7 July

All in all this probably means that the current pattern we are in, is likely to continue for the foreseeble future with still no great pattern change until the pattern of tropical convection changes.

The most likely scenario is a continuation of the MJO July phase 1 500hPa anomaly with perhaps a little bit of phase 2 for good measure.

One can hope that the rut we appear stuck in can become unstuck as quickly as it has become stuck. The lack of mobility with the current pattern does offer the brief warm southerly interludes as any low pressure systems may only slowly meander across the country. There is also phase 3 to look forward to which suggests an Atlantic ridge extending over the UK.

There is though a real risk that July will continue along the present average lines with no sustained spell of higher pressure until far later in the month and maybe even August now.

c

[Snowyowl9]

Many on here keep commenting about how bad the last two summers have been. I will say my point in that while summer 2008 saw rainfall above average and sunshine below - temperaturewise it STILL ended up close to average, and STILL a shade ABOVE average by 1961-90 standards. So it is a total load of tosh that summer 2008 was that bad. Summer 2007 was a wetter summer still than last year, and just marginally cooler than the 1961-90 average. It is the truth that we have not had a summer that could be described as "cool" since 1993, and before that the four summers from 1985-1988.

1993 would`ve better to last year as far as much less rainfall was and thunder even if it was one of the cold summers, to last year which was very wet for the west with repetitive westerlies/SW-lys, besides the warm to hot week at the end of July with thunderstorms breakdown,really was the highlight.

1993 less rain,colder but still 11 thunder days all this from May 1st same to last year 2008 warmer but still less with 8 thunder days.

Edited July 8, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[damianslaw]

Superb classic col situation developing at present. By Friday we are sat within a col with high pressure to north and south and low pressure to west and east, Friday could be a lovely day with lots of blue skies, pleasant temps nothing special but good all the same. Shame that bang on cue for the weekend the atlantic gathering momentum out west at present is going to arrive on our shores. Saturday is looking a miserable wet day for the west, the dregs of the low could meander about for much of Sunday in eastern spots, so not a great weekend ahead.

Further ahead, best spot to be the south east which could see predominantly dry and sunny and fairly warm weather next week, whereas further north and west it is looking quite grim with return of the south westerly and its associated low cloud and drizzle muck...

I suppose it is good that the generally unsettled spell we are in right now hasn't coincided with the start of the school holidays, I hold firm in my thoughts that late July will see a return of the dry settled warm weather for all, but how late into July we shall wait and see, hopefully by the weekend of the 25th/26th July, the last weekend of July is traditionally a very good one for summer weather, for me it marks peak summer and I always associate it with good times and good weather.

[TonyH]

<br />I'd like to know what people constitute as a typical "British Summer". In my view, it is several days of very warm or hot temps with sunshine, followed by a thundery breakdown. Repeat the process and there's your British Summer. Quite a few people seem to thing that prolonged cool conditions is the norm for the country, though I suppose times are changing and so is the climate. <br /><br />Anyway, models not looking too good or too bad, still think that at the end of this month into the start of Aug will see a good summery spell, how good is another question.<br />

<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Bit of a myth the 3 fine days and a thunderstorm constituting a typical British summer.<br />A typical British summer to me- and I 've seen a few.. is pretty much what we have had this summer to date... around average temperatures, with short warm/hot spells, also cooler unsettles/wet spells, basically mixed! This Summer is though warmer than average so far and not especially wet in most areas.

Why is my posts getting mutilated...this has happened before?

Edited July 8, 2009 by Tonyh

[Derp Patrol]

That's strange, I don't know why that is happening

About a typical British summer, I would say that a typical British summer contains a mixture of very warm/hot spells such as last week and then cooler spells such as this week in between, probably slightly more in the way of warmer spells though. It depends on where you live though, those in the north west, NI and Scotland are more likely to have cooler weather with less sunshine and more rainfall, and those who live in the south and east are likely to have warmer weather with less rainfall and more sunshine. Take last week as an example, whilst the south east saw temps of 32C, just a few hundred miles away in the west and north the temps at the same time were in the mid twenties and even lower in some places. So in my opinion there is no default summer pattern for the whole country.

Edited July 8, 2009 by robthefool

[Snowyowl9]

This summer would probably go down as a typical average british summer so far,I`m not including temps but rainfall with it and cloudcover which there`s been rather very big share on average so far.

As for ECM not much changes, but at least looking more interesting with a greenland high and a cut of low,which may produce something more thundery as being that bit futher south,but it keeps changing.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

[mushymanrob]

I'd like to know what people constitute as a typical "British Summer". In my view, it is several days of very warm or hot temps with sunshine, followed by a thundery breakdown. Repeat the process and there's your British Summer. Quite a few people seem to thing that prolonged cool conditions is the norm for the country, though I suppose times are changing and so is the climate.

Anyway, models not looking too good or too bad, still think that at the end of this month into the start of Aug will see a good summery spell, how good is another question.

a typical summer for me would be 3 weeks of mobile westerly with periods of sunshine/rain temps average followed by the 4th week with a building ridge, temps become warm/hot before a thundery breakdown returns us to a mobile westerly regime again.

this mornings runs continue to suggest 'average' summer conditions, nothing extreme, nothing settled.

[Derp Patrol]

We are still in early July, we don't have a clue on what is going to happen after 5 days or so, so I wouldn't say that the rest of July will be poor. The GFS has been picking up on warmer signals, but it looks like it has reverted to typical atlantic weather untill it picks up on a new signal. It can't get too much worse than it is at the moment, so I am quietly optimistic that we will see some more settled weather soon, at least some sunshine would be nice so I can sit outside, so far this week has been cool and windy with little sunshine, temperatures struggling at 19C or 20C

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

An unsettled weekend is on the cards then and would I be right in saying that the remainder of July isn't looking too good? Looking at models it shows the jet tracking low across the UK and into France with associated fronts coming in one after the other and temps around about average. So if I was to sum up the remainder of this month, it would be changeble but fairly unsettled. It all rests on August and/or September to provide what's left of Summery weather.

Too early to write off July yet in regards a settled spell. The next week/ten days looks like we are stuck with rather unsettled south westerlies but I think there is a good chance of pressure rising NE'wards again towards Scandinavia by the last week of the month with another spell of nice easterlies.

[Methuselah]

Too early to write off July yet in regards a settled spell. The next week/ten days looks like we are stuck with rather unsettled south westerlies but I think there is a good chance of pressure rising NE'wards again towards Scandinavia by the last week of the month with another spell of nice easterlies.

Let's hope so, Tamara...In the meantime, there might be some thundery activity for us to enjoy?

[edveasey]

I was hoping for something a bit different from the models today but they have at least made up their mind about next week.

There is a slight stalling at the beginning of next week which could bring us some nice weather on Monday and Tuesday to the South East, but from Wednesday it all goes a bit down hill. The jet coming out of the US Thursday and Friday looks very powerful and pushes any stalling away. this is a still a bit away and worth keeping an eye on, will it be as strong as the models predict? any weakening of this event may create a blocking over N. Europe next weekend.

This is clutching at straws the models seem to be consistant in predicting that any blocking will break down and give us a run of cool and showery weather for at least the rest of the month.

[William of Walworth]

An unsettled weekend is on the cards then and would I be right in saying that the remainder of July isn't looking too good? Looking at models it shows the jet tracking low across the UK and into France with associated fronts coming in one after the other and temps around about average. So if I was to sum up the remainder of this month, it would be changeble but fairly unsettled. It all rests on August and/or September to provide what's left of Summery weather.

Too early to write off July yet in regards a settled spell. The next week/ten days looks like we are stuck with rather unsettled south westerlies but I think there is a good chance of pressure rising NE'wards again towards Scandinavia by the last week of the month with another spell of nice easterlies.

I confess to an element of hopecasting when I agree with NSSC more than weather09 here, but I still think those posters already writing off the entire of July are being too pessimistic.

The coming weekend outside of the SE looks fairly dire, I'm fearful for a LOT of rain here in Wales on Saturday/Saturday night especially. So I'm realisticly downbeat for the immediate future. But I repeat what I said yesterday as far as the last fortnight of July goes -- anything from around the 21st?? onwards has everything surely still to play for, and prospects can change very quickly ...

I hold firm in my thoughts that late July will see a return of the dry settled warm weather for all, but how late into July we shall wait and see, hopefully by the weekend of the 25th/26th July, the last weekend of July is traditionally a very good one for summer weather, for me it marks peak summer and I always associate it with good times and good weather.

So do I, and there's nothing yet to write it off either.

Edited July 9, 2009 by William of Walworth

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Let's hope so, Tamara...In the meantime, there might be some thundery activity for us to enjoy?

Yes Pete, some areas might see the sort of conditions experienced this week with some more thundery downpours. However convectional activity sourced from the atlantic on south westerly winds isn't my cup of tea to be honest

There is no way though that anyone can predict unsettled weather for the rest of the month when we are only just starting the second week of it.

[Eugene]

After a slight improvement in the model output yesterday it looks like the models have deteriorated again with it remaining unsettled with temps average to slightly below, at least it wont feel as cold as today as we lose these really cold uppers.

[mushymanrob]

who was 'writing off' the rest of the month? ive not seen a post doing so, unless you call 'average conditions' 'writing off'.... i dont, i think average will be pretty pleasant.

[Derp Patrol]

If you read the post on the page before, someone said that the remainder of July would be unsettled, with us having to wait untill August untill the next settled spell.

I wouldn't really call the next week 'average' heavy showers with little sunshine and temperatures struggling in the high teens in the NW and struggling to reach any higher than 20C in the south is hadly average

Edited July 9, 2009 by robthefool

[Timmytour]

Is my reading of the models correct in that it looks to me as if South Wales will be hit with unusually heavy rain over the course of Saturday into Sunday....unusual even for that part of the country?

[PB22]

Is my reading of the models correct in that it looks to me as if South Wales will be hit with unusually heavy rain over the course of Saturday into Sunday....unusual even for that part of the country?

It is looking potentially very wet, and is worth watching developments over the next couple of days.

Into next week and we do need to keep an eye on things to the southeast, as the potential is there for warmer conditions to move north into southeastern parts of Britain in particular.

UKMO:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

ECM:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1441.html

GFS:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1322.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn13217.html

It doesn't look like it will last too long, with unsettled weather returning from the west again, and with that warm air there could be some very heavy and thundery rain about.

[mushymanrob]

If you read the post on the page before, someone said that the remainder of July would be unsettled, with us having to wait untill August untill the next settled spell.

I wouldn't really call the next week 'average' heavy showers with little sunshine and temperatures struggling in the high teens in the NW and struggling to reach any higher than 20C in the south is hadly average

i see

tbh i dont think it was 'writing off' july though, to me that would be suggesting the remainder would be cool, cloudy and wet. (07 anyone? :lol: )

im not sure what 'average' tems are for july, 18c - 22c? and with the uppers increasing and the wind switching to the southwesterly quadrant these temps should be easily reached imho. plus i dont think that its particularly 'wrong' of anyone to suggest there will perhaps be no more settled weather this month.... indeed chionomaniac doesnt expect any settled until the last week if not august, so to expect a changeable couple of weeks certainly narrows down the possibility of a return to settled this month.

settled will come.... the only question is when? (sooner the better imho, but we might have to wait some time)

[Bottesford]

Thing about 'average' is that in July 'average' is nothing to complain about! It's high summer where 'normal' weather feels very pleasant.

I'd dare say only the months of July & August feel pleasant near enough day & night when the weather is 'average'.

[Derp Patrol]

Yes, 22C in the sun does feel very nice, I would take average temperatures every day if it meant no cloud, but usually we end up with 22C with grey cloudy skies which isn't as pleasant. :winky:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Broadly speaking "average" for July means around 18 or 19C for much of Scotland, 19 or 20C for much of northern England & north Wales, 21C in the Midlands, East Anglia, south Wales annd south-west England, and 22 or 23C in central southern & south-eastern England.

[NorthernRab]

How bizzare, suddenly we've all become long range forecasters? I'm finding it difficult to look beyond 14thish, let alone make a solid statement about the rest of the month.

[NorthernRab]

Well, since you put it like that, it's pointless having a 'Model Output Discussion' thread. The whole point of this thread is discuss the output of the models and on this occasion the models don't seem to be showing any signs of a prolonged settled spell, rather the opposite. I made a 'Prediction' earlier that the rest of the month would have a few days where it will feel pleasant but on the whole, this month will be generally unsettled. I'm not saying that it's a fact, and it actually will happen, it's just my opinion.

One thing about this forum, particuarly on this thread, is you have to be careful about what you say before people either accuse you of moaning or being overly pessimistic. Well sorry, I'm not sitting on the fence for this topic, if I think this month will be unsettled and just not Summery I'll say it. :winky:

Settle petal, I wasn't making a dig, I too was making a point - the most recent hot spell was not foreseen by 3 weeks, so it's not all doom and gloom for the rest of July.

The GEFS is showing signs of high pressure building though.