Model Output Discussion

[PB22]

The general conclusion from the 12z output is that low pressure will never be too far away, bringing rain or showers to many areas, but the southeast will always see the best of the brighter and warmer conditions on offer:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html

Little sign at the moment of anything more settled appearing on the charts, but I still feel that southeastern Britain will fare quite well next week.

[Snowyowl9]

Well if I`m honest the charts are not looking good,just to show what we had this time last year,the atlantic starts up again in July and thats where we can`t break.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120080711.gif

It did come good towards the end the July 2008.

I don`t know where this very good summer is coming from yet,it`s going to be wet in the west these coming days from the weekened,this week is has been good with it mostly dry.

Edited July 9, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[bluearmy]

The general conclusion from the 12z output is that low pressure will never be too far away, bringing rain or showers to many areas, but the southeast will always see the best of the brighter and warmer conditions on offer:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html

Little sign at the moment of anything more settled appearing on the charts, but I still feel that southeastern Britain will fare quite well next week.

indeed paul, although as the trough has backed further west on ecm, the SE and parts of the midlands will come under some pretty heavy rain mon night through tuesday spreading up from the continent. the way the trough has trended over the past couple of days on most nwp, this would seem highly likely and could even come further NW.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/cat...0912!!/

[mountain shadow]

Three things striking me about the model output for the next ten days

1. Jet running through or to the south of mainland Britain

2. Jet appears more 'energetic' than I would have thought was the norm for mid summer

3. The absence of a deep surface high in the North Atlantic Basin and Europe. The highest pressure I can see is around 1030mb from the Azores High which seems displaced westwards allowing Lp's to track east into Europe.

All in all, if you've taken your holidays in the Uk or Ireland over the next two weeks, it ain't going to be great.

Caveat always that it will drier and warmer in the south east.

Edited July 9, 2009 by mountain shadow

[Mandy Langlands]

Could someone be a love and check what the models are showing for miami for the next two weeks please. Off there on monday.

Ta very much. Mandy x

[Ross B]

Could someone be a love and check what the models are showing for miami for the next two weeks please. Off there on monday.

Ta very much. Mandy x

Hello,

When travelling to Florida you dont need to really check the models. (Apart from for hurricanes) It's pretty much the same every day at this time of year. Low to mid 90's with a dry morning and a good chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Amazing weather B)

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USFL...Link_undeclared :lol:

[Mandy Langlands]

Thanks Ross, 5th trip over there. But first time at this time of year, normally go earlier. Hope its good when i come back.

Thanks again.

Mandy x

[Optimus Prime]

You're wet one minute, bone dry the next. The heat is more comfortable compared to the heat here.

[TEITS]

Could someone be a love and check what the models are showing for miami for the next two weeks please. Off there on monday.

Ta very much. Mandy x

Max temps of 34C, min temps an uncomfortable 27C.

Sunny dry morning followed by afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

Back to our own models and it looks as though SE areas could become rather warm next week with temps around 25C. Still room for improvement from these models as the LP might be further W than currently progged allowing the warmer temps to spread further W.

[Derp Patrol]

It is just my luck that I will miss some decent weather next week as I will be heading down to Cornwall/Devon on Saturday for a week.. hopefully when I come back the models show something better, but it looks like a disappointing week away from the SE next week. We do still have 3 weeks of July, the whole of August and potentially some of September for some decent weather though, so I will keep my hopes high

[mushymanrob]

How bizzare, suddenly we've all become long range forecasters? I'm finding it difficult to look beyond 14thish, let alone make a solid statement about the rest of the month.

spotting trend changes in fi has always been going on this forum, getting some notion about how the future weather might pan out is why we come here. no ones made any solid statement, just predictions based on how they/we think the synoptics may pan out.

- the most recent hot spell was not foreseen by 3 weeks, so it's not all doom and gloom for the rest of July.

yes it was! glacier point and chionomaniac predicted a stalling low to our west and pressure build to our east/northeast 3 weeks before the event and long before any model showed it.

meanwhile those succession of summery fi runs that were progged a couple of weeks ago are now a distant memory. no quick re-load of any heat/settled makes july likely to be average at best. ok average july is very pleasant but its not quite what most of us would like to see. tbh id prefer hot/settled in july rather then in august.

[Timmytour]

It is looking potentially very wet, and is worth watching developments over the next couple of days.

Lloks like much of Wales now escaping the worst with Ireland getting the torrential stuff

[londonsnow]

Now that we have a disturbance that may just become organised into our first named storm, even hurricane, of the season (name:Ana) gearing up in the Atlantic, FI often becomes even trickier to call for models, esp the GFS which goes so far out. Makes it more interesting though

Ignore most of that post!!! Somerset squall has just pointed out that the disturbance I was following is in the Pacific not the Atlantic

Having said that the Atlantic is sure to kick off soon, so wariness about FI is still relevant during the season

Edited July 10, 2009 by londonsnow

[mushymanrob]

this is getting frustrating, each run seems to almost deliver the right (settled, sunny, warm) synoptics ... but which never quite make it into a full blowen summer spell.... either ridges that collapse or highs that drift off too quickly eastwards .

[Snowyowl9]

July is turning out to be a frustrating month in recent years with atlantic reawakening bring wet/windy or showery SW-lys and just brief ridges,just like January in winter,although last Jan was almost upto the standards of the mid 1990`s(1997) early on.

Although the greenland is taking part in next weeks write off unsettled week,best place will be in the SE but even there it`ll get wet at times.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

As for saturdays rain,GFS seems to be bringing the heaviest during the night.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn424.png

Edited July 10, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[edveasey]

Sorry I see it defferently. I mentioned yesterday I'm watching the strength and position of the jet coming out of the US next week, I think that this will have a major effect on our weather medium term. over the last few models the trend has been to stall this in the mid atlantic temporarily allowing the Azores high to have a greater influence over the UK, and also allowing the high to extend over central and northern Europe

Where as a few days ago the models were placing low pressure directly over the top of the UK we now see them tracking to the north of us. I still think it's a rather unsettled picture but non the less we look to be in for some very pleasant weather next weekend and the week after.

If this situation developes as the models predict the end of July could see a prolonged settled period that could last into August, which is what the long term forecasts at the beginning of the month were suggesting.

It always amazes me how we can be pretty good at predicting the general situation quite far in advanced but even the slightest changes in positioning can alter the detail of a forecast immeasurably.

Edited July 10, 2009 by edveasey

[evil monkey]

It always amazes me how we can be pretty good at predicting the general situation quite far in advance but even the slightest changes in positioning can alter the detail of a forecast immeasurably.

That's the joy of this thread though isn't it? It's all about the perturbations!

[Ross B]

I know it's quiet but can we please stay on topic guys? If you wish you can start a topic on Florida's Vs New Zealand Vs Uk Heat in the appropriate forum. Thanks

[johnholmes]

Sorry I see it defferently. I mentioned yesterday I'm watching the strength and position of the jet coming out of the US next week, I think that this will have a major effect on our weather medium term. over the last few models the trend has been to stall this in the mid atlantic temporarily allowing the Azores high to have a greater influence over the UK, and also allowing the high to extend over central and northern Europe

Where as a few days ago the models were placing low pressure directly over the top of the UK we now see them tracking to the north of us. I still think it's a rather unsettled picture but non the less we look to be in for some very pleasant weather next weekend and the week after.

If this situation developes as the models predict the end of July could see a prolonged settled period that could last into August, which is what the long term forecasts at the beginning of the month were suggesting.

It always amazes me how we can be pretty good at predicting the general situation quite far in advanced but even the slightest changes in positioning can alter the detail of a forecast immeasurably.

welcome to NW and enjoy but my favourite request to all newbies?

pse put your nearest town in your avatar

many thanks

Settle petal, I wasn't making a dig, I too was making a point - the most recent hot spell was not foreseen by 3 weeks, so it's not all doom and gloom for the rest of July.

sorry that is not correct, look at the posts by GP or ch or even myself in the lrf-all 3 suggested that it would occur about 3 weeks ahead of it, GP a good bit further out than 3 weeks?

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_carte...de=0&mode=2

well looking at that still no sign of summer yet up to 18 th of july still spells of rain at some time

Edited July 10, 2009 by tinybill

[johnholmes]

I suspect there is little sign of any real warmth, for more than the odd day,returning through this month but more when I post the lrf.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks to me as if the rather dull wet weekend will be followed by a run of showery SW'lys, similar to what we had during 4-7 July, and little in the way of frontal activity, implying that there could well be a fair amount of sunshine in between the showers. In addition those who like their convective/thunderstorms may have a fair amount of storm watching to do next week.

So perhaps not the washout that some are suspecting? All in all it does look wet, but not particularly dull or cool.

[Eugene]

It's very frustrating we are now in mid summer and the models just arent showing anything that good just an unsettled near average to slightly below average theme, i'm starting to lose interest in this summer now and looking forward to early autumn, last night recorded a ground frost in some rural areas which is incredible for mid July.

Edited July 10, 2009 by Eugene

[Methuselah]

It's very frustrating we are now in mid summer and the models just arent showing anything that good just an unsettled near average to slightly below average theme, i'm starting to lose interest in this summer now and looking forward to early autumn, last night recorded a ground frost in some rural areas which is incredible for mid July.

Don't get so disheartened, Eugene; ground frost in July is hardly unheard of. Come on, mate - there's plenty of time yet??

[Solar Cycles]

Don't get so disheartened, Eugene; ground frost in July is hardly unheard of. Come on, mate - there's plenty of time yet??

It's not unheard of,but it is unusual. Still can't complain to much, this summer already beats the previous two summers hands down! As for the next few weeks looks pretty average to me!