Convective/storm Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks good for the East AGAIN. :o

[Harry]

Looks good for the East AGAIN. :o

The latest forecast has already put some western shift on! And please dont jynx us :lol: :o

[Costa Del Fal]

The latest forecast has already put some western shift on! And please dont jynx us :o :lol:

Lol i must Jynx you!

Lol here will see nothing im sure. Id loved to be proved wrong but its gone quiet here thunderwise lately with the East getting most of them now.

[Neilsouth]

What are temps going to be like for tomorrow? , today its been windy but as of yet no real sign of any potential humidity/warmth from france. Or is it due to come in as the evening progresses?

[dave48]

What are temps going to be like for tomorrow? , today its been windy but as of yet no real sign of any potential humidity/warmth from france. Or is it due to come in as the evening progresses?

Thursday afternoon onwards, associated with the small plume.

[Harry]

What are temps going to be like for tomorrow? , today its been windy but as of yet no real sign of any potential humidity/warmth from france. Or is it due to come in as the evening progresses?

From what I have read thus far, it's not really supposed to make its presence felt until tomorrow - though I'll feel more confident the quicker it gets here, should it of course :o

Lol i must Jynx you!

Lol here will see nothing im sure. Id loved to be proved wrong but its gone quiet here thunderwise lately with the East getting most of them now.

:lol: For that nastiness I hope you get sod all, lol!! Nah to be fair we have done well, albeit on most occasions for me, being at a distance. I still wouldnt be surprised if chances spread further W!!

[Jane Louise]

I may be in luck according to this and Estofex :o (Surely it's my time for a storm now lol)

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-07-15 21:12:00

Valid: 2009-07-16 00:00:00 - 2009-07-16 23:59:00

Regions Affected

*SE & CS ENGLAND*, Midlands, Home Counties, Southwest England, south Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland ( all of the UK is included in the WATCH )

Synopsis

A complicated setup on Thursday, and one that will require close monitoring. An area of LOW pressure to the northwest of Scotland, and a second LOW pressure rapidly approaching from the southwest, will determine the weather conditions across the UK. Across Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland, daytime showers and thunderstorms will develop in response to daytime heating and local convergence zones. Light winds will ensure that the showers/storms will be slow-moving, and hence a risk of flash-flooding. Hail may accompany some of the showers/storms, though it must be highlighted that the risk of thunderstorms is somewhat less than recent days. Any showers/storms that do develop should decay during the evening hours. Elsewhere, cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over the Bay of Biscay as a sub-tropical area of LOW pressure deepens rapidly.

At the same time, a plume of warm and moist air is advected across France towards the UK on the eastern flank of the LOW. The interaction of the two is expected to result with thunderstorm initiation across northern France during the late afternoon and evening hours. As the LOW rapidly approaches from Biscay, the thunderstorms are expected to rapidly merge into a large MCS, which is then forecast to move into the South/Southeast of England. The exact track of this MCS is far from certain – there is a lot of differences between the models, with some indicating that it may not even make it to UK shores, but may move across NE France and into Belgium instead. Nevertheless, the MCS will be developing in a very favourable environment for severe thunderstorms, and may take on supercellular characteristics, including the threat of moderate hail, locally extreme rainfall and perhaps tornadoes.

Over Southwest England, an upper warm front will develop outbreaks of persistent rain during the afternoon hours, moving into the south Midlands/south Wales during the evening. Models are struggling with this scenario as to whether this rain will be electrical or not – current thinking is electrification will increase here in the evening hours, though it is not expected to be too widespread. Given the uncertainties present with regards to positioning, intensity of rainfall and eletricification, an update may be issued during Thursday as and when necessary.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-240/

[maidstone weather]

Harry... remember we had a Level 1 on 6th August - and that brought one heck of a storm and a tornado warning from TORRO! :o

[dave48]

Lots of excitment I see, I know I would be excited if I was down in the south east.

Having said that, all of the organisation's very quick to make early forecasts, before the 18Z too so hopefully the models will stay the same. Looking forward to 10.30 though, hopefully it will be further confirmed then.

Really hoping to see something here, first overhead storm of the year in Bath still to come.

[Harry]

Harry... remember we had a Level 1 on 6th August - and that brought one heck of a storm and a tornado warning from TORRO! :o

Do I remember, oh let me think....hehehehe!! :o

Tomorrow is guaranteed to be one of two things for the SE, or both in some cases - exceptionally exciting, or exceptionally disappointing.

I am hoping for the former of course - the most exciting thing being the presence of the wind shear - that doesnt happen often with imports of us, so hopefully, we could get one of those all night bangers of the past! :lol:

Oh and a few statistics from my signature line - twice in the last 3 months we've had storms on the 15th. It will also be exactly two weeks since the last MCS battered the SE (well, most areas anyway, lol). It is Thor's day too (I made that sad connection before, lol)

Edited July 15, 2009 by Harry

[Harry]

Well well well....turn up for the books!

Anyone who is an avid believer in Rob McElwee, and living in the SW, yes, South WEST, will be very happy with the forecast he's got on the BBC website at the moment!

Yes there is a pretty big swathe of blue across the entire S (whether that's drizzle or hurricane style precip is anyone's guess lol), his ideas of who is getting storms is some what differing to those currently on here! :huh:

Edited July 15, 2009 by Harry

[dave48]

Well well well....turn up for the books!

Anyone who is an avid believer in Rob McElwee, and living in the SW, yes, South WEST, will be very happy with the forecast he's got on the BBC website at the moment!

Yes there is a pretty big swathe of blue across the entire S (whether that's drizzle or hurricane style precip is anyone's guess lol), his ideas of who is getting storms is some what differing to those currently on here! :huh:

I'm sure there will be the usual mess of heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with these set ups but I still fancy the south east to have the best chance. Right now the conditions look very favourable.

[Lynxus]

Humm, tomorrow and fri morning will really be one of those busy forum days and a LOT of radar watching.

Estofex have a good forecast for the SE

UKMO have fairly good warnings out.

UKASF also have a good warning out.

Days like tomorrow always end up disappointing.

I cant see much for where i am, however the SE could be in for some great fun :huh:

Then again, BBC show the SW and midlands could be worst hit due to the low pressure.....

NW shows me for 20% change tomorrow.

God only knows whats going to happen. Its going to be a TERRIBLE! morning at work for me! stairing out the window begging for that big black CLOUD

Edited July 15, 2009 by Lynxus

[maidstone weather]

18z GFS shows a large MCS moving up, but then splitting before it reaches the SE. One half goes over the SE, East Anglia and then curls back round into NE England. whilst the other half moves into Belgium/Holland? :huh: very odd

[Lynxus]

18z GFS shows a large MCS moving up, but then splitting before it reaches the SE. One half goes over the SE, East Anglia and then curls back round into NE England. whilst the other half moves into Belgium/Holland? :huh: very odd

I used to trust the gfs like something you trust a lot.. But nowadays i never know what to make of it.

Its almost always wrong at storm prediction and info.. But then again we all know how hard it is to predict.

Ive turned into one of those.. Ohh look at that it says storms... Then just wait and see.

[dave48]

Well 18z run in, and SE still on course for an active night tomorrow, the SW and Wales seeing some heavy rainfall aswell with the C Mids situated between the two. Personally, it looks like for here, moderate to heavy rain at the most though I'm not sure about the chance of storms so hopefully someone can give their thoughts on the latest run.

I think you may have a real chance as the activity reinvigorates across the midlands.

[maidstone weather]

Caution! 12z was very 'bullish' in it's rainfall amounts from the MCS!

The ensembles show the operational was off the scale! all the other ensembles are below 14mm.

Edited July 15, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Neilsouth]

It's got to try VERY hard to get even close to the amazing storm of the other week :huh:

[azores92]

weather09 i wouldnt get too hung up on the gfs showing the west midlands being in no mans land, for one, it is a case of radar watching as the accuracy even at this stage can be somewhat dodgy, and two, gfs isnt best known for accurately predicting the track of the two main paths of energy from this system/

[Nick F]

Netweather storm forecast issued for tomorrow: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Could be an interesting evening/night if things develop the way of the models today ... but we won't know for sure until the evening.

[Ross B]

thunderstorm here at the moment , just about to turn off the computer , 2 flashes of CG lightning and very loud cracks of thunder , very impressive cell

I saw that line of CB's very well when i left Edinburgh around that time. Looked awesome :lol: Just a lot of heavy showers in Edinburgh today, possibly once i heard some distant thunder around 7/8pm.

[azores92]

I saw that line of CB's very well when i left Edinburgh around that time. Looked awesome :lol: Just a lot of heavy showers in Edinburgh today, possibly once i heard some distant thunder around 7/8pm.

if gfs is right, there could be almost 6 inches of rainfall around parts of northeastern england over the weekend period. stay safe folks

[R0b]

Wow, things looking really good for 2moz/friday.

I just hope it does move north slightly and we get some lovely storms!

Slightly off topic i dont suppose anyone has any radar images from the 2007 June floods, i have really been wanting to see some as i was amazed by the floods.

Thanks,

Rob