Convective/storm Discussion

[sunny scunny]

A downpour just passing through here :lol: Heaviest shower of the day.

Im pretty sure i saw a flash of lightning.

Edited July 14, 2009 by sufc

[Ross B]

Tomorrow looks very good for the N of the UK, particuarly for the NE (Again), NW and Scotland. ESTOFEX have put their forecast out with the risk area leaning towards the areas mentioned above. Nice CAPE values, lapse rates and approaching trough to kick things off so tomorrow a much more promising day for storm development.

Areas around Newcastle could be getting yet another round of storms! Think I may move there

Pretty sure Kilmarnock will be stormy tomorrow, i have interviews in Glasgow then Edinburgh :lol:

[NL]

Tomorrow does look appealing yet again for the Midlands northward with the NW and Ireland favoured most,

another day of watching the radar and visible sat images. Alas i dont have a car Lewis and i dont think chasing on

my motorbike will be much fun especially if ya caught up in gust fronts and fair sized hail..!! :lol: ..!!!

Well all that came out of that was marginal moderate rain 0.3mm so far.., little more to come but nothing exceptional..

Think i'll go back to the ways of the old days and just observe the conditions without radars and the likes, to many let

downs when the radars show much promise.....(bet i dont last 5 minutes.!! )

[R0b]

That heavy band is just about to pass over me, check the postcode out on NW Xtra - HU10

Rob

[Severe Blizzard]

Torrential rain and rumbles here, a weak storm but a storm nonetheless, but clearing from the SW, that makes at least 1 thunderstorms every week for the last 4 weeks, the last storm being this time last week.

And aparrently the SE is storm starved! T'is been a very thundery summer here.

I hear you JShaw - sadly the more intense precip just missed me to my E, however there is another cell which has rapidly intensified to my SSW and is en route for here.

Seeing as the cell you received was electrical, there is nothing to suggest this one wont be either. IF I do get some thunder in the next 20-30 minutes, it will be a shock to say the least as I was far from expecting anything

And I also agree the SE has not been storm starved so far this year, in fact far from it. What we do have to acknowledge though is most of the thunder days have been localised, exc this time last week which was far more widespread. Poor MW and TN9 and seen virtually nothing while us a bit further NW have seen a lot.

As Harry quoted, NW parts of London have hit the jackpot several times this summer while other areas have missed out.

Guildford has seen only ONE thunder outbreak this summer and there have been only two 'thunder days' in 2009 so far (Wednesday 15th April & Tuesday 7th July). I have never seen such a year (or summer) which has been so deficient in thunder in my locality, for so long, when there has been so many days of activity over the U.K. and even the S.E. in general.

This current situation is just another letdown - just like the endless S.W.ly's suffered last summer, which was also remarkably free of thunder.

I trust tomorrow will be another day mind blowing excitement in Central Southern / Western S.E. England or Guildford. :lol:

[dave48]

As Harry quoted, NW parts of London have hit the jackpot several times this summer while other areas have missed out.

Guildford has seen only ONE thunder outbreak this summer and there have been only two 'thunder days' in 2009 so far (Wednesday 15th April & Tuesday 7th July). I have never seen such a year (or summer) which has been so deficient in thunder in my locality, for so long, when there has been so many days of activity over the U.K. and even the S.E. in general.

This current situation is just another letdown - just like the endless S.W.ly's suffered last summer, which was also remarkably free of thunder.

I trust tomorrow will be another day mind blowing excitement in Central Southern / Western S.E. England or Guildford. :lol:

Yes, the poor summer extends further west too, compared to last year in particular, which wasn't bad for us.

While I do have four thunder days, one of those was in Exeter and the only overhead storm, and two of the three days in Bath had such distant thunder it could only be faintly heard in the garden, had I sat inside, I would probably have recorded much less.

So, no overhead thunderstorm in Bath this year as yet, i'm wondering if we will go the entire summer without one. Meanwhile I believe most of the midlands and east anglia are having average years, while the north east is having a fantastic year.

Edited July 14, 2009 by dave48

[WS Evolution]

Distant lighting and thunder here at the moment.

Make that directly over head! lots of lighting. Downpour, loud rumbles of thunder and many flashes.

Edited July 14, 2009 by WS Evolution

[WS Evolution]

Distant lighting and thunder here at the moment.

Make that directly over head! lots of lighting. Downpour, loud rumbles of thunder and many flashes.

Quite an intense little storm in the Vale of York. Plenty of cloud-to-ground lightning, been going for 15min now. Was not expected. 14 strikes picked up by Strikestar detection system.

Edited July 14, 2009 by WS Evolution

[dave48]

GFS looks alright this week, more activity for northern parts and Scotland, then a quieter period over the weekend.

Possibility of activity next week too, so something worth looking at. We can see what it does with that idea over the next few days.

[NL]

I went on the hills just near Cleadon Tyne & Wear, great vantage point looking west and

got a few shots of a storm moving NE, i saw no lightning but possible thunder.

[dave48]

Might you be referring to Tuesday? GFS hinting at a plume event going by the significant rise in temps/dewpoints from the SE, and look at France!!. Obviously too far away but as you say, somethin to watch out for.

Yeah, but more the SLP, looks to bring some air off the continent. But yeah a few of the charts look alright at the minute.

[stormchaser1]

Lets hope this produces the storms

Cape charts this week have suggested storms possible {monday and Tuesday just gone} however no Thunder heard or no lightning seen, Had reports of Lightning in a place called Dipton last night

More rain fell last night/ this morning bringing the total to 58.5mm so far {already this month}

June and July have been the wettest months so far this year for the North East

[Costa Del Fal]

Hmm we seem to have stopped getting storms now. North Easterners are getting it all today i bet!

[Coast]

OK, a roundup of some of the forecasts for today has ESTOFEX giving us an area across most of Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

UKASF have pretty much the same with the following detail:

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-07-14 21:05:00

Valid: 2009-07-15 00:00:00 - 2009-07-15 23:59:00

Regions Affected

Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Northern England, north Midlands, C + N Wales (remaining areas of the UK, excluding the SE, is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

An area of LOW pressure will be the dominant feature of the weather across the UK on Wednesday, with it's centre over northern England. Heavy showers will be present even at daybreak across the U.K., especially across England, Wales and parts of Scotland. During the day further scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop thanks to embedded troughs, fronts and convergence zones within the anticyclonic flow around the area of LOW pressure. Slow-moving torrential downpours may cause local flash flooding, particularly across Scotland and Northern England. Hail is also very likely to accompany the showers and thunderstorms. Scotland exhibits the most favourable environment for thunderstorms, particularly, but not exclusively, in the east. Showers and thunderstorms will decay fairly quickly during the evening hours.

TORRO have an interesting map with more detailed analysis of the potential in three distinct areas:

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2009/025 A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been UPDATED at 10:05GMT on Tuesday 14th July 2009

Valid from/until: 09:10 - 20:00GMT (areas 1 & 3) and 09:10 - 06:00 on Tuesday 14th/Wednesday 15th July 2009 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

UPDATE TO INCLUDE LONDON/THAMES VALLEY AREA

Eire SW England Wales Midlands NW England NE England Lincs & E Anglia London area/Thames Valley

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes; marginally severe hail/wind; heavy rain; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Area 1: Showers and thunderstorms will occur today, in a region characterised by weak tropospheric flow. One or more surface convergence zones are expected today, especially across western portions of Eire. Any strong convection in such a zone has the chance of producing short-lived tornadoes. The risk will diminish this evening.

Area 2: Pronounced upper vort max will move in later today and overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this, in a region characterised by modest vertical shear. Some organised storms are possible, with a risk of marginally severe winds/hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. The risk extends into the overnight period too.

Area 3: Subtle vort max has helped showers to form this morning across S England. As these move north wards, diurnal heating should allow them to become more widespread and intensify, with a few thunderstorms possible. Shear is sufficient for small clusters to form, with a risk of marginally severe wind/hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

I'll take North Lincolnshire in my virtual chase today!

[azores92]

i really dont think friday has much potential for many areas of the united kingdom. i know the met office are forecasting all this heavy rain, but as it stands, the main energy is more likely to move over the benelux than the uk, and only a little rain is forecast for areas west of the wash. i think it is one of the watch it go into the north sea scenarios.

[Methuselah]

Plenty towering convection already. Could be this year's 5th thunder day?

[Paul Sherman]

Coast

That Torro one is for yesterday Stop drinking so early man!!!!

[Cloud 10]

A nice hooky looking storm clipping northeast scotland at the moment.

Very cloudy here at the moment,could do with the sun coming out to fire things up. B)

[Coast]

Coast

That Torro one is for yesterday B) Stop drinking so early man!!!!

B) My name is Coast, and I'm a stormoholic!

[Harry]

B)

Had a very heavy shower earlier - nothing overly exciting except the large puddles B)

I am thinking tomorrow night into the early hours of Friday could be worth watching - some BIG BIG thunderstorms likely to explode over N France throughout the afternoon and evening, with an MCS or two a distinct possibility I'd have thought. The overlap of the storm risk chart seems to have them coming tantalisingly close to our shores! The last time this kind of scenario was possible was exactly two weeks ago to the day

Still conjecture atm, but thoughts?

Edited July 15, 2009 by Harry

[Greeny]

A nice hooky looking storm clipping northeast scotland at the moment.

Would be classed as a bow echo although it looks very much more like a horseshoe.

[sunny scunny]

Torrential rain falling here B)

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Lets hope this produces the storms

Cape charts this week have suggested storms possible {monday and Tuesday just gone} however no Thunder heard or no lightning seen, Had reports of Lightning in a place called Dipton last night

More rain fell last night/ this morning bringing the total to 58.5mm so far {already this month}

June and July have been the wettest months so far this year for the North East

Didn't hear or see anything in Stanley last night, i'm only a few miles from Dipton.

Had some heavy rain though, maybe I missed some thunder while I was Xboxing.

I think this cloud cover could damage our chances today, as mentioned in the NW convective forecast.

Hopefully we can get some sun and get the temps into the low 20s, then we should have a good chance.

Yet again though i'll probably be stuck in work when/if things kick off.

Think I need a new job!

[Lewis]

Weather09 picked up on something, and the metoffice have just issued the following weather watch;

UK regions:

East of England

North West England

Wales

South West England

Yorkshire & Humber

West Midlands

London & South East England

East Midlands

North East England

Warning

Heavy Rain Valid: Fri 17 Jul

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting much of England and Wales. Areas of very heavy rain and local thunderstorms will spread northwards across many parts of England and Wales during Thursday night and Friday before clearing away slowly eastwards. Some places will miss the worst, but 15 to 25 mm of rain is expected to fall over a fairly wide area, with a few locations likely to receive in excess of 50 mm.

Issued at: 1048 Wed 15 Jul

[TEITS]

I can't see much happening here today. Currently very overcast and disappointing.

Just also wanted to add that today the BBC have contacted me wanting to use the Peterborough tornado footage I posted on youtube. The programme is called living dangerously and will be aired later this year.