Convective/storm Discussion

[Andy Bown]

Gone very dark here - very dodgy looking

If you look at the radar the convergence zone stretches from Somerset right towards the London area.

There has been around half an inch of rain just 5ish miles South of here this afternoon (see BA13 on NW Radar postcode zoom) while we've had just 0.5mm from the edge drizzle/brief sharp showers.

As a result we have mostly cloudy conditions with occasional sunny spells while it's still mostly sunny to the North!

[kerensa]

If you look at the radar the convergence zone stretches from Somerset right towards the London area.

There has been around half an inch of rain just 5ish miles South of here this afternoon (see BA13 on NW Radar postcode zoom) while we've had just 0.5mm from the edge drizzle/brief sharp showers.

As a result we have mostly cloudy conditions with occasional sunny spells while it's still mostly sunny to the North!

hi andy we have been in that line of showers BA9 on radar and another on way, really heavy downpours but no thunder

[BFS/BHD]

Thunder Storm number two of the day, four for the week, tenth of the year approaching from the south west.

Looks very slow moving, anvil well formed. Rumbles in the distance..............

Yep, looks better than the one that passed earlier. Went out to take some pics of it there. Looks impressive.

[Harry]

I've had my eye on this since Sunday evening, ever since the first FAX for Friday came out, and it has hardly changed at all

BBC precip run showing the worst of it heading way East! They are going to be accurate at some point aren't they? I know what I think....

[maidstone weather]

BBC precip run showing the worst of it heading way East! They are going to be accurate at some point aren't they? I know what I think....

it will all divert around Maidstone?

[mountain shadow]

Yep, looks better than the one that passed earlier. Went out to take some pics of it there. Looks impressive.

Storm missed me to the North, you should have caught it?

Yep, looks better than the one that passed earlier. Went out to take some pics of it there. Looks impressive.

Storm missed me to the North, you should have caught it?

[dave48]

I've had my eye on this since Sunday evening, ever since the first FAX for Friday came out, and it has hardly changed at all

Also been looking at it for a few days, latest GFS is really liking the idea, even for something for western parts into the midlands too.

DLS looks awesome too.

[Birkhill saints]

Had two today the one at about 2 pm was big and just to the north of me . 3 miles for the center.

[stormchaser1]

Not much happening in the North East now, looks like the Met Office warning only for Northumberland was a good call, that's the only part of the North East to have had a decent storm today from what I can tell.

They have also added the risk of thunder to their forecast for this area tomorrow, but the risk looks lower than today so I won't build my hopes up.

Nothing materializedd again today , thats 3 days where the charts have suggested some decent cape for the North East and nothing has happened, we did have a shower earlier , but nothing exciting, oh well back to the drawing board!

Mark

i had a text message last night , from one of my mates who said there was lightning seen in Dipton

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Nothing materializedd again today , thats 3 days where the charts have suggested some decent cape for the North East and nothing has happened, we did have a shower earlier , but nothing exciting, oh well back to the drawing board!

Mark

i had a text message last night , from one of my mates who said there was lightning seen in Dipton

Hi Nigel,

I'm sure there will be plenty more chances this summer for us.

It's already been a good year for the North East, but I feel like I haven't seen much because i've been stuck at work during the decent storms we've had. Now at work they're on about moving me to an office in the warehouse which has no windows Don't know how I would cope!

Anyway didn't hear or see anything last night, just heavy rain but I could have missed quiet thunder as I was on the Xbox.

[peterf]

an afternoon full of promise.but alas no show.

[Cloud 10]

The cloud is breaking up nicely here now,could get interesting this afternoon.

Looks like i put the mockers on it.

There was a storm in northumberland at least,as well as a good few in scotland.

[Mesosphere]

thunderstorm here at the moment , just about to turn off the computer , 2 flashes of CG lightning and very loud cracks of thunder , very impressive cell

[Andy Bown]

The convergence zone's still going well through Somerset/Dorset/Wiltshire with some places in a narrow line having received over half an inch of rain since about midday while either side has been virtually dry. If anything the zone has nudged further North in the last few hours and Westbury looks in line for a few downpours this evening - still mostly clear sky to the North! Fascinating.

[Lynxus]

Cant wait for thurs evening and friday.. Met office have warnings out

[Costa Del Fal]

Despite some rain this morning its been sunny and very warm all evening!

[Snowyowl9]

Cant wait for thurs evening and friday.. Met office have warnings out

Yes a nasty looking day friday.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn481.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn5417.png

Edited July 15, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Costa Del Fal]

More appropriate for the 'Todays weather and General chat' thread perhaps? :lol:

This Friday does look increasingly good (or bad depending on your take on the models) for the Midlands, may be a few embedded storms in the main area of heavy rain swinging up from the south.

So...

Tomorrow may see some showers and or storms. I expect just rain on Friday though.

[Methuselah]

Steady moderate 'thundery' rain, as an old cell drifts slowly northwards...More storms tommoz, I hope!

[dave48]

As already mentioned by some members a good chance, based on current model data at least, of some significant thunderstorms tomorrow night into tomorrow morning.

It should also be noted that there is real potential for severe storms to be in the mix.

A moist plume comes up out of France, mainly affecting the south east but instability looks to extend out further across the country. I think the most interesting factor though is the shear values, wide spread deep layer shear of 20-30 looks possible, which would certainly suggest the potential for severe thunderstorms.

It will be interesting to see if the models move the set up further west, potentialy making the south east storms just clip Kent and also if the area of instability extending right across southern England remains or does not materialise.

All in all, I reckon a great chance for the south east.

[Neilsouth]

Oh no ! for the first time i don't want storms let alone rain , i'll be driving back to kent from essex 11PM onwards LOL :o

[Richard Taylor]

Fascinating in & around Aberdeen this week so far.

Mon especially I heard plenty thunder, didn't see any lightning, the city stayed dry, but the storms were obviously very close by SW through NNW.

Ditto Tues, I heard thunder from my workplace in the city centre at lunchtime, but whilst my location was dry, just 5mins up the road got a real soaking! Very localised stuff!

Didn't see or hear any lightning/thunder today, but not to say there wasn't. Left the house 0815 this morning it looked for all the world like a cell coming in from offshore, which seemed to route round the north of the city. There was lightning somewhere but I saw & heard nothing.

Agree that the development of the cells every day this week has been pretty spectacular to the west!

Edited July 15, 2009 by Richard Taylor

[Harry]

Oh no ! for the first time i don't want storms let alone rain , i'll be driving back to kent from essex 11PM onwards LOL :o

Hmm - I will be in a similar position - agreed to play squash with my mate until 10pm, grr!! IF something comes to fruition before this then I am afraid in injury will be in offing, lol!

Am interested at the moment to see if we are looking a thundery rain type event, or intense MCS type event being in the offing!

Some of the CAPE and LI values across N France through the afternoon and evening period look insane - haha! But also, as Nick F points out on the adjacent thread to this specifically on Friday's Low potential, the warm and humid air could advect further N and W than first thought. Should this be the case, we may see storm potential extend further towards us and maybe even a few home growns thrown into the mix.

This is purely my relatively uneducated guesswork, but it seems to be quite possible.

[Paul Sherman]

Agree with Dave - Shear Values look awesome for the South East but nothing in comparison to Northen France which looks likely to get Supercells aplenty over the next 2-3 days. If that damn concrete road was there I would be camping this one out, if all goes as planned with the Plume extending up into the Uk there should be some severe Thunderstorms overnight Thursday into Friday. Am liking the look of this set up more and more

Paul S

[Harry]

Agree with Dave - Shear Values look awesome for the South East but nothing in comparison to Northen France which looks likely to get Supercells aplenty over the next 2-3 days. If that damn concrete road was there I would be camping this one out, if all goes as planned with the Plume extending up into the Uk there should be some severe Thunderstorms overnight Thursday into Friday. Am liking the look of this set up more and more

Paul S

Yeah same here - really exciting this! Am definitely considering a chase, hopefully meet up with some others if they dont mind! As I said though, my dilemma at the moment is timing - will have to get my boots on very quickly post 10pm!

Not sure if mentioned already, Estofex on a Level 1 for pretty much the whole of the SE - Level 2 not too far away across France!!

Edited July 15, 2009 by Harry