Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4

[LomondSnowstorm]

Latest weekly cfs averages on netweather show a milder December, slightly above average January and a cold February - sounds reasonable enough!

CW

[johnholmes]

ALL

With the above post written by GP i am very surprised at some of the negative comments on here. Since this post not one person has passed comment on what GP has highlighted. Many have been highlighting for some time now blocking at higher lattitudes with cold to affect Europe and possibly our shores through winter. Granted November has been warmer than normal and very wet resulting in some on here believing this to be the shape of things to come for winter. November is an Autumn month. Autumn is the transitional season between summer and winter during which storms, mild, cold and benign conditions should all be expected and are nothing other than normal for the time of year.

I dont post often but read through the threads. And I have found the posts of the likes of GP, RJS/BFTP, Steve Murr and others (im sure ive forgotten a few of the big hitters but you get my point) very informative. To this end i fail to understand views of some who post winters over before it has even begun ! (many with no evidence to back their claims ) I dont accept this christmas pudding term at all and i think the posters that use it merely do so to wind others up who have differing views. I think it is accepted Ian Brown and some others use this term for their own reasons. It would be good if sensible discussion could take place re the upcoming winter and the "its over posts" and "christmas pudding posts" omitted. I doubt however this will happen !!

good to see some not exclaiming winters over it can't recover or whatever.

For gawds sake some of you its November. I am old enough o remember every winter since 1947, I was working in 1963; yes there has been a lack of prolonged cold with snow and frost for many but not totally as some just above has pointed out about last year of the 'faux cold'. A term about as daft as the 'christmas pudding' in my view but there you are we are all different, thank goodness. But just to repeat its still November, winter, by meteorological definition in the northern hemisphere starts 1 December and last until the last day of February.

Fact-the earth has warmed some 3/4 of a degree C since 1860, that is fact, thus our base line, even in the UK, is rather higher than in 1860 to achieve prolonged snowy frost y cold so how about being a touch realistic.

By the way have a look at Novembers in the CET 'cold' or 'very cold' by definition winters and tell me how many had serious cold in November and how many had a mix and how many were milder than the normal at that period in time?

As GP posts and others, myself included, there are SIGNS, no more than that, of winter NOT being what some describe as 'blow torch' winter weather.

As an aside I do marvel at how many phrases have almost become folk lore since the web got going.

A long post but come on folks post your views with EVIDENCE be it mild or cold for winter and let us all be the judge of the worth of your prediction.

Finally, as I am oft wont to post, remember any forecast is just that a forecast, the climate and weather have, what seems to me as a professional meteorologist, a perverse enjoyment in proving us wrong at times.

end of sermon.

[cyclonic happiness]

We've had an "indian summer" by most peoples thinking, so why are folk then surprised when it takes a while to flush that warm air out of the northern hemisphere.

I have always thought that a mild november leads to the chance of a colder than normal winter, even if that is not backed up by facts.

Funny as well, just a few days ago folk were talking about the winter of 62/3 as being a 1/1000 year event, like it wasn't possible to attain that sort of thing any more?

But today I hear that there has been a 1/1000 year flood in Cumberland, I'm sure there must have been floods like this before in Britain in the past millenium?

What about that Lynmouth/Lynton flood?

So my main point is that I do not subscribe to the 1/1000 year 1963 winter theory and I think it's totally possible to have a winter like that again within my lifetime (although who would want that? :blush: ).

Also, I think that there are alot of folk on this board who are unable to put up a good enough defence to be able to post a forecast?

The overwhelming majority on the board haven't the qualifications of experience to be able to do it, so try as best they know how to get across their views.

I also thought there were threads for the more "savvy" to post their forecasts and analysis?

Edited November 20, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[Iceni]

A long post but come on folks post your views with EVIDENCE be it mild or cold for winter and let us all be the judge of the worth of your prediction.

Finally, as I am oft wont to post, remember any forecast is just that a forecast, the climate and weather have, what seems to me as a professional meteorologist, a perverse enjoyment in proving us wrong at times.

end of sermon.

I might be being a tad cheeky here John and don't tell me off , but my 'evidence' is a chest of drawers full of jumpers and a wardrobe-full of coats which I haven't really needed to wear for about 10 years, whereas they were in daily winter use up until the late '90s…

[Bristawl Si]

I might be being a tad cheeky here John and don't tell me off , but my 'evidence' is a chest of drawers full of jumpers and a wardrobe-full of coats which I haven't really needed to wear for about 10 years, whereas they were in daily winter use up until the late '90s…

10 year old jumpers! You need to get out and buy some new clobber!

Mild, stormy November is not that unusual, is it? Winter's yet to come. Mind you i'm also old enough to have lived thru' winters of endless mild dross and i'm not just talking about the 90s and the last 8 years (last year an exception to some extent). I remember the 70s (71-77 i think) and we had hardly any cold and snow for about 7/8 years i think here in BTL.

Maybe the 78-87 winters were just a 'classic' snowy period in the great scheme of things (not everyone of those years i know).

This winter coming - who knows?!

[D KARLSON]

good to see some not exclaiming winters over it can't recover or whatever.

For gawds sake some of you its November. I am old enough o remember every winter since 1947, I was working in 1963; yes there has been a lack of prolonged cold with snow and frost for many but not totally as some just above has pointed out about last year of the 'faux cold'. A term about as daft as the 'christmas pudding' in my view but there you are we are all different, thank goodness. But just to repeat its still November, winter, by meteorological definition in the northern hemisphere starts 1 December and last until the last day of February.

Fact-the earth has warmed some 3/4 of a degree C since 1860, that is fact, thus our base line, even in the UK, is rather higher than in 1860 to achieve prolonged snowy frost y cold so how about being a touch realistic.

By the way have a look at Novembers in the CET 'cold' or 'very cold' by definition winters and tell me how many had serious cold in November and how many had a mix and how many were milder than the normal at that period in time?

As GP posts and others, myself included, there are SIGNS, no more than that, of winter NOT being what some describe as 'blow torch' winter weather.

As an aside I do marvel at how many phrases have almost become folk lore since the web got going.

A long post but come on folks post your views with EVIDENCE be it mild or cold for winter and let us all be the judge of the worth of your prediction.

Finally, as I am oft wont to post, remember any forecast is just that a forecast, the climate and weather have, what seems to me as a professional meteorologist, a perverse enjoyment in proving us wrong at times.

end of sermon.

you do realise holmes that your completely mad

[Duane S.]

Mild, stormy November is not that unusual, is it? Winter's yet to come. Mind you i'm also old enough to have lived thru' winters of endless mild dross and i'm not just talking about the 90s and the last 8 years (last year an exception to some extent). I remember the 70s (71-77 i think) and we had hardly any cold and snow for about 7/8 years i think here in BTL.

A fact often swept away under the carpet. What a shame for the moderneraists that the late 70's and early/mid 80's happened, they could've notched a few more years onto the 'christmas pudding' timeframe.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A fact often swept away under the carpet. What a shame for the moderneraists that the late 70's and early/mid 80's happened, they could've notched a few more years onto the 'christmas pudding' timeframe.

thats a new one 'moderneraists' of course I'm one, but I dont class the 90's as the christmas pudding, they were very snowy and cold

[azores92]

thats a new one 'moderneraists' of course I'm one, but I dont class the 90's as the christmas pudding, they were very snowy and cold

dont know about that. yes, 1990/1991 wasnt too bad, with the midlands snowstorm and the bitter memorable easterly in february. then it wasnt really until 1994/5 that we saw an appreciable accumulation of snow, with 2 not too bad winters, then generally speaking the rest of the 90s were fairly poor for snowfall. how would 1995/6 be explained ian? also the 1991 easterly, some memorable events in there. yes the world has warmed, hard to deny that, but that doesnt stop the snow from falling.

Edited November 20, 2009 by azores92

[I remember Atlantic 252]

dont know about that. yes, 1990/1991 wasnt too bad, with the midlands snowstorm and the bitter memorable easterly in february. then it wasnt really until 1994/5 that we saw an appreciable accumulation of snow, with 2 not too bad winters, then generally speaking the rest of the 90s were fairly poor for snowfall. how would 1995/6 be explained ian? also the 1991 easterly, some memorable events in there. yes the world has warmed, hard to deny that, but that doesnt stop the snow from falling.

96-97 was fantastic as well, probably my best winter, 97-98 also decent, really since 2000+ the christmas pudding, the last 10 years shockingly mild, less frequency of cold air, even cold air masses not as cold as they used to be

[DAVID SNOW]

I accept that the early to mid-seventies saw generally mild winters but, let's be clear, there is been nothing like the last 22 years since climate records began being seriously kept in the mid 17th Century - look at the astonishing NAO chart I published in my winter forecast.

Lets be clear as you say. You are saying the last 22 years stand out above any other 22 year period in 400 years?

[stewfox]

I totally agree. When I think of Novembers of my childhood (going back more years than I'd admit to here) the past decade have been pathetic — and yes, I include last November amongst them — when we got stormy weather it was colder stormy weather and when it was clear there'd always be a ground frost and/or fog. I'd be into jumpers and coats by the middle of October every year, whereas this year it's been a T-shirt and light mac.

Thank god for CET and for reality (there are of course loads more)

25.2c 11 october 1978

25.2c 12 October 1978

23.7c 16 october 1977

22.8c 17 october 1954

21.7c 20 October 1969

22.8c 26 October 1969

20.6c 28 October 1958

19.2c 29 october 1984

19.4c 31 October 1968

[TEITS]

A long post but come on folks post your views with EVIDENCE be it mild or cold for winter and let us all be the judge of the worth of your prediction.

end of sermon.

Don't get agree with you John and never have when it comes providing evidence.

This board is made up of many members whose knowledge of Meteorology varies significantly. Now if someone wants to make a forecast based on hopecasting, reading the tea leaves, or even counting the amount of berries on the bushes, then they should be allowed without having to provide evidence.

I fear your attitude may put off less experienced members from posting. So may I suggest you remove your professional hat and have a more relaxed attitude towards less experienced members!

[DAVID SNOW]

I believe it does. I haven't seen the full figures, but believe me, if a 22 year period 'beat' 1987 to 2009 in terms of warmth, Mr Data would have posted it by now.

You have NOT seen the full figures as you say Well, after your 400 year claim it is for you to provide the DATA to substantiate your claim

[Iceni]

Thank god for CET and for reality (there are of course loads more)

25.2c 11 october 1978

25.2c 12 October 1978

23.7c 16 october 1977

22.8c 17 october 1954

21.7c 20 October 1969

22.8c 26 October 1969

20.6c 28 October 1958

19.2c 29 october 1984

19.4c 31 October 1968

So what? 7 years out of 33 and only 2 of those warm Octobers were during my childhood (born in October 1951) during which most time I was living in the South of England. Nope, sorry not convinced.

[DAVID SNOW]

I have seen plenty of the figures, so as a denier of the christmas pudding, I will let you provide the figures to :lol: prove me wrong.

As you should know, you have made this 400 year claim, therefore, it is YOU who should substantiate your post. I shall contest your figures, charts, 400 year records when you post them......Waiting............

[LomondSnowstorm]

96-97 was fantastic as well, probably my best winter, 97-98 also decent, really since 2000+ the christmas pudding, the last 10 years shockingly mild, less frequency of cold air, even cold air masses not as cold as they used to be

9 years does not an era make.

[ribster]

Blimey, some people have no idea how to conduct themselves online! 'Thinking' you are hidden because you are online is a very grave mistake - no wonder cases of internet rage are on the up.

[Blizzard]

OK, I will leave it to Mr Data or whoever else. Trust me, he would produce any stat to try and disprove the christmas pudding so i will wait for him to do it.

Not often I post on here, but have been around for a while. Ian - you may well be right, but it is your attitude that sucks. First rule of science is to admit that one day you are likely to be wrong. Hippos used to bathe in the Thames, then ice sheets used to cover the UK (well most!). Something may or may not have happened 22 years ago (frankly very unlikely to have been a simple 'switch'), but to be convinced of it isn't really very open. Yes things do seem to have warmed up recently, but the christmas pudding is such a nonsensical phrase, we are always going to be in the christmas pudding by definition....

[Fozfoster]

Not often I post on here, but have been around for a while. Ian - you may well be right, but it is your attitude that sucks. First rule of science is to admit that one day you are likely to be wrong. Hippos used to bathe in the Thames, then ice sheets used to cover the UK (well most!). Something may or may not have happened 22 years ago (frankly very unlikely to have been a simple 'switch'), but to be convinced of it isn't really very open. Yes things do seem to have warmed up recently, but the christmas pudding is such a nonsensical phrase, we are always going to be in the christmas pudding by definition....

GOOD POST

[J10]

People are on about cold spells in recent winters, while not wishing to go into any long term trends. The period after Christmas and into the current year was a very cold one, with temps really struggling to get above freezing.

Which caused a large amount of freezing over of local lakes and ponds with real ice.

Of course this is without mentioning the very snowy spells in February. So even in recent times, cold spells and snowy spells are still more than possible.

[Cheese Rice]

I don't really understand why people are so peeved of by the term "christmas pudding". Its far easier to that than it is to say- "the period between 1989 and 2009 where the earth warmed considerably compared to the last 50-100 years and in result caused a string of mild winters for the UK" . I think its a bit sad that people get so worked up over two words, and feel the need to constantly bring up arguments againts using that term.

[osmposm]

I don't really understand why people are so peeved of by the term "christmas pudding". Its far easier to that than it is to say- "the period between 1989 and 2009 where the earth warmed considerably compared to the last 50-100 years and in result caused a string of mild winters for the UK" . I think its a bit sad that people get so worked up over two words, and feel the need to constantly bring up arguments againts using that term.

Hear, hear! I think there's more than a bit of "shooting the messenger" involved.

Having said that, granted that we know the irritation it - rightly or wrongly - causes, it might be more politic to avoid using it, and certainly not with the frequency Ian does....one suspects that there may be just a leetle bit of deliberate wind-up going on.... :lol:

Edited November 21, 2009 by osmposm

[osmposm]

You have NOT seen the full figures as you say :lol: Well, after your 400 year claim it is for you to provide the DATA to substantiate your claim

Well, you could start with this http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57043-winterautumn-2009-10/page__st__765__p__1606152entry1606152

That only deals with matters since 1772, however - but does have the advantage of having attempted to dig out and compare (using the daily mean CET figures) seriously cold periods that can lie hidden within an unexceptional month overall.

Before 1772 we only have the monthly CETs, but this does do some comparisons within the 350 year CET record. Not quite 400 years, it's true, but I've never heard it suggested that 1609-1659 was likely to have held unusually warm periods - it was, after all, part of the 'Little Ice Age'! Also, to be fair, by the measures I used, the completely unprecedented period is so far 18 years, not 22. But in combination with the first analysis, the record strongly suggests that the period since 1987 has been unique - though 'since 1991' is probably a safer certainty.

Would you accept that?

[ribster]

Not often I post on here, but have been around for a while. Ian - you may well be right, but it is your attitude that sucks. First rule of science is to admit that one day you are likely to be wrong. Hippos used to bathe in the Thames, then ice sheets used to cover the UK (well most!). Something may or may not have happened 22 years ago (frankly very unlikely to have been a simple 'switch'), but to be convinced of it isn't really very open. Yes things do seem to have warmed up recently, but the christmas pudding is such a nonsensical phrase, we are always going to be in the christmas pudding by definition....

Couldn't agree more, this thread has and is being ruined for me, by one persons crusade. As you say, it's not ones views I have a problem with (which I may agree or disagree with), its the egotistical self righteous tone and blatant disregard for anyone else that I have a problem with.