Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4

[MR EXTREMES]

Yep the Uk trough has been dominant, and been beefed up by a mod-strong El nino event as well which has really pumped up those rainfall figures thanks to a southerly jet. Impressive.

El Nino seems to be really impacting the Atlantic right now, the jet is really powerful and thats reflected with 940-960mbs lows frequantly blowing through, probably will be the story of most of December I suspect now, I'm starting to get really concerned that we are heading towards a bog standard mild El nino winter now...

well im glad im not the only one,

as far as i can remember most of the nino winters have been carbon copies of this type of weather we are getting now.

im not suggesting cold snaps are unlikely but i am suggesting that when you have a alantic fired up like it is now then pressure rises to on north or northeast are less likely,

and nino is predicted to stay mod/strong through out winter.

as i said i hope im wrong but winter09/10 will not be the winter wonderland that some have predicted not even close to 08/09 in my opion.

although im not expecting blowtourch infact average to little above throughout,

but very very wet as we have seen already with some stormy conditions.

as we have progressed through autumn into the start of winter thing are starting to look worse with cooling ssw and split vortex along with model output throwing up bartlett highs,

although i think bartlett is less likely to happen but other factors that are turning less in our favour are sst and jet stream behavour,

all thease things are not playing ball 100% infact things are to finely in the balance to be confident about a cold winter09/10,

although as i said cold snaps are possible from alantic weather system passing over pulling down arctic air but just typical of a el nino winters in the last 15 years or so.

anyway i will hope im wrong but looks like i will have to wait until winters end for the outcome.

[Ben_Cambs]

Well im pleased by the latest GFS charts....

[fear sneachta]

1st Dec winter starts

In meteorological terms at least.

[kold weather]

Does anyone know what the wettest November-December combination is?

Given how wet November has turned out be, and the fact that we still look to be locked into a pretty wet synoptic set-up for a little while yet, we could end up fairly high up I'd have thought.

[The watcher]

Hi Kold, already for November I think some areas seen rainfall in the top 5 wettest in the records, IF it manages to double that by giving the same in December it would definitely be a first I would like to think. I was amazed by some of the flooding that not only occured in England/Wales, but in the West of Ireland with 5ft of rainwater sitting atop acres upon acres of farmland, one farmer owned 120 acres and 80 acres of this was under water.

For sake of saving the UK and Ireland from further flooding I hope a settled spell does arrive mid month at the latest.

[sundog]

Hi Kold, already for November I think some areas seen rainfall in the top 5 wettest in the records, IF it manages to double that by giving the same in December it would definitely be a first I would like to think. I was amazed by some of the flooding that not only occured in England/Wales, but in the West of Ireland with 5ft of rainwater sitting atop acres upon acres of farmland, one farmer owned 120 acres and 80 acres of this was under water.

For sake of saving the UK and Ireland from further flooding I hope a settled spell does arrive mid month at the latest.

I just cant help thinking that surely El Nino has some part to play in all this wet weather we have been having, its a bit too much of a coincidence for me. Im sure there are other factors at play but i think the biggest factor is El Nino. I mean its hardly the first time weve had an El Nino and we happened to have very wet conditions. Dont think ive seen as much rain since the second half nov/first half Dec 2006 and that was an El Nino winter. Coincidence? I personally doubt it.

[kold weather]

It probably does have something to do with it, though the way the global teleconnections have set-up in general plus the southerly running jet probably are as big a part in it as well.

[fear sneachta]

Sorry to break it to you all, but it will be a mild winter, with higher than average temps in fact and with slightly above average rainfall too. There will be little in the way of snow, apart from in Scotland at times. See link:

http://www.metoffice...onal/index.html

Edited December 3, 2009 by fear sneachta

[Optimus Prime]

There will be little in the way of snow, apart from in Scotland at times. See link:

Where does that statement come up in their forecast? If you're going to add your own comment split it apart from what else you're showing otherwise it'll be misinterpreted in the future.

[cyclonic happiness]

Sorry to break it to you all, but it will be a mild winter, with higher than average temps in fact and with slightly above average rainfall too. There will be little in the way of snow, apart from in Scotland at times. See link:

http://www.metoffice...onal/index.html

Eek....that's a bit harsh?

You have to remember that this time last year we were staring down the barrel of a mild met office forecast and look what happened?

I think we are gonna be in for more and more surprises now we are in the "post modern winters" era.

[Weather-history]

Sorry to break it to you all, but it will be a mild winter, with higher than average temps in fact and with slightly above average rainfall too.

I point out that the Met Office are predicting that a mild winter is favoured, they do not say it will be a mild winter.

[Hiya]

Sorry to break it to you all, but it will be a mild winter, with higher than average temps in fact and with slightly above average rainfall too. There will be little in the way of snow, apart from in Scotland at times. See link:

http://www.metoffice...onal/index.html

Hello fear sneachta na h-Èirinn.

That graph in my mind contradicts their forecast here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/ since the UK should be white for no strong indication either way?

I also don't agree with their new percentage system, whereby even if they get it wrong they can always fall back on "we didn't rule it out" or "we only said it was a 75% chance of bbq summer"

[Thundery wintry showers]

To their credit the Met Office have "stuck their necks out" rather more in producing that map, which reveals some strong clues about how they think the upcoming winter will pan out. A continuation of the current pattern, with a strong Siberian High, retrogressing at times into Scandinavia and/or the Svalbard area but generally only enough to bring cold air into eastern Europe, with mild southerlies & south-westerlies over Britain, is suggested.

[kold weather]

Yeah, and to be honest it isn't really all that different to Joe B's forecast either, though he does have the cold weather get further west towards us later in the season.

[jonboy]

Ssorry if this is a silly question what date does winter officially start, is just December the 1st or is it further on in December?

Anyway heres hoping for colder winter with some snow

Call me old fashioned but for me winter starts when we celebrate the winter equinox on the 21st December. By bringing forward the start of winter to December the 1st we have introduced aperiod that is cooling and therefore likely to be warmer than a period ie March that is warming which can be cooler. Thus our even larger teapot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Call me old fashioned but for me winter starts when we celebrate the winter equinox on the 21st December. By bringing forward the start of winter to December the 1st we have introduced aperiod that is cooling and therefore likely to be warmer than a period ie March that is warming which can be cooler. Thus our even larger teapot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes that true but i hate seeing Dec like this.The days are very short and given the right synoptics it can be

a superb time for cold and snow.Mid Feb onwards doesn;t appeal to me that much,my proper winter timeframe is

from the start of Dec to around the 20th of Feb,thats about 80days,first 10 days of that are a wipe out.

At a time when people are putting up their trees and decorations it would be fab to see cold and snow outside.

All i can see and hear is rain,and thats the way its likely to stay for the forseeable!!

[azores92]

Yes that true but i hate seeing Dec like this.The days are very short and given the right synoptics it can be

a superb time for cold and snow.Mid Feb onwards doesn;t appeal to me that much,my proper winter timeframe is

from the start of Dec to around the 20th of Feb,thats about 80days,first 10 days of that are a wipe out.

At a time when people are putting up their trees and decorations it would be fab to see cold and snow outside.

All i can see and hear is rain,and thats the way its likely to stay for the forseeable!!

i think its been pretty darn chilly in recent days tbh! many people have been complaining of the raw wind, and its not been wet all the time, so atm this is perfectly normal for this time of year. the thing is, especially in recent times, december is traditionally a time when the atlantic is still in revved up mode, and so it is rare to get a really wintry month. imho, listening to the experts and by judging the situation myself, we should be casting our eyes on january and february, and fingers crossed we get rid of this cyclonic muck thats coming our way in the coming days once and for all.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It hasn't been normal at all- November has been one of the mildest of recent years (note "recent years"- an already high baseline!) and one of the wettest of all time.

[damianslaw]

It hasn't been normal at all- November has been one of the mildest of recent years (note "recent years"- an already high baseline!) and one of the wettest of all time.

Granted November wasn't normal in terms of the consistently high rainfall levels and high temperatures, but it was fairly normal in terms of the general consistent unsettled nature - November is not renowned for settled dry conditions. The period late nov-mid dec is renowned for being a consistently wet unsettled period of the year, in fact its the period of the year when you least expect settled weather, westerlies reach their yearly maxim right now, wintry weather doesn't usually set in in great earnest until around christmas, I'm not dispondent in the slightest about the prospects for cold and snow this winter just because we are seeing unsettled conditions right now, its the norm, I never expect much from the first half of Dec, in fact its usually a relieve to get it out the way, it very rarely delivers anything wintry.

Edited December 3, 2009 by damianslaw

[Weather-history]

Something that was slightly odd about last November that has been overlooked that despite being one of the wettest months on record, it ended up sunnier than average overall for England and Wales according to Philip Eden.

Just looking back at some El Nino years, wet November-December combinations seem to be a feature. I think November-December 1929 might have been part of an El-Nino event. That was an absolute washout and fingers cross we don't approach those kind of levels.

[Weather-history]

Here are the latest figures

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

194 ~~ 2009

Wettest months ever recorded for England and Wales

218.1 Oct 1903

202.5 Nov 1852

200.8 Nov 1770

196.5 Nov 1940

195.9 Nov 1929

194 ~~ Nov 2009

At this moment in time, November 2009 was the wettest month for England and Wales since November 1940 with only 5 other months, wetter. That's 6th in a list of about 2900 or so in total

Edited December 5, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

The 2000s have recorded some remarkably wet months.

Top 10 wettest months for England and Wales recorded this decade.

10th wettest January: 2008

Wettest April: 2000

10th wettest May: 2007

2nd wettest June: 2007

5th wettest August: 2004

2nd wettest October: 2000

9th wettest November: 2002

6th wettest November: 2000

5th wettest November: 2009

Other notables

Wettest May-July period on record: 2007 including the wettest May-Jun and Jun-Jul period on record

3 consecutive Julys over 100mm: 2007-09

Wettest autumn on record: 2000

Wettest any 3 month period on record: Oct-Dec 2000

17th wettest February on record: 2002

15th wettest March on record: 2001

15th wettest April on record: 2001

15th wettest May on record: 2006

15th wettest July on record: 2007

15th wettest December on record: 2002

Only 2 top 10 driest months on record (there were 7 in the 90s): April 2007 and August 2003

Edited December 5, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

Something that was slightly odd about last November that has been overlooked that despite being one of the wettest months on record, it ended up sunnier than average overall for England and Wales according to Philip Eden.

Just looking back at some El Nino years, wet November-December combinations seem to be a feature. I think November-December 1929 might have been part of an El-Nino event. That was an absolute washout and fingers cross we don't approach those kind of levels.

I think quite a lot of these very wet "westerly" type winter months end up somewhat sunnier than average in eastern areas. In strongly "south-westerly" months like November 2009 it tends to happen because of long periods of dry sunny weather in between the active rain belts. It can also happen via polar maritime-dominated months with a lot of bright showery weather in between occasional active rain belts (though not as exceptionally wet, November 1996 and December 1999 were excellent examples of this). For various reasons sunshine and rainfall show a much stronger inverse relationship in summer.

The 2000s have, indeed, contained some remarkably wet months, and thanks for the stats as always. For me, the most remarkable aspect of the decade has been the large number of exceptionally wet summer months following a steady trend towards dry sunny summers that peaked around the mid 1990s.

[Eugene]

Very encouraging latest 10 day forecast from the UKMO, so much for no cold spell, they seem to think we are in for at least a 10 day cold spell with frost morning and night, for so early in the season this is just great.

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Dec 2009 to Monday 21 Dec 2009:

The coming weekend should be essentially dry and fair across all parts of the United Kingdom, with a mix of sunshine and broken cloud. However, it will feel quite cold, with patchy fog and frost affecting many areas overnight and into the mornings. Looking ahead to next week, the mainly dry and settled theme looks set to continue, although a brisk northerly breeze will bring occasional showers to northern and eastern areas. The breeze will make it feel increasingly cold, despite some sunshine, with frost often quite widespread morning and night. The cold but mainly settled theme is likely to continue through next weekend and the start of the following week, although showers in the north and east are likely to turn increasingly wintry.

Updated: 1201 on Mon 7 Dec 2009

Edited December 7, 2009 by Eugene