Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4

[Polar Gael]

Couldn't agree more, this thread has and is being ruined for me, by one persons crusade. As you say, it's not ones views I have a problem with (which I may agree or disagree with), its the egotistical self righteous tone and blatant disregard for anyone else that I have a problem with.

Seconded and with bells on.

Personally, I'm very much looking forward to the start of the "postmodern era"...

[Backtrack]

I'm disappointed with some of these comments. We are fortunate to be living through such an exciting period of change and people are looking for reasons to deny what has, and is, happening and how the changes impact on our location as much as anywhere else in the World.

If you are talking about temperature change - The global temperature hasn't risen for 9 years.

[Polar Gael]

I'm disappointed with some of these comments. We are fortunate to be living through such an exciting period of change and people are looking for reasons to deny what has, and is, happening and how the changes impact on our location as much as anywhere else in the World.

Or - just a thought - we could be living through the biggest scam in history:

http://www.investigatemagazine.com/australia/latestissue.pdf

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8370282.stm

As I said, I'm very much looking forward to the postmodern era.

[Methuselah]

If you are talking about temperature change - The global temperature hasn't risen for 9 years.

Fair point Backtrack; but, by the same token, it hasn't fallen either!

Which, with the current states of both Solar output and Milankovitch cycles, it arguably should be.

[SP1986]

I imagine it will start to fall away soon, before a rise again, still modern era should not offend anyone, as basically modern in a running timescale means anytime now.. modern era could probably also be named after a cold era if that was occurring - and I'm sure there wouldn't be much argument about the term Modern era if it was referring to cold?

Maybe we should call it the 'contemporary era'?

[Nick L]

I imagine it will start to fall away soon, before a rise again, still modern era should not offend anyone, as basically modern in a running timescale means anytime now.. modern era could probably also be named after a cold era if that was occurring - and I'm sure there wouldn't be much argument about the term Modern era if it was referring to cold?

Maybe we should call it the 'contemporary era'?

I don't think that is what annoys people. What annoys people is the refusal by a certain member to accept that the "modern era" may be complete hogwash.

[DAVID SNOW]

Well, you could start with this http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57043-winterautumn-2009-10/page__st__765__p__1606152entry1606152

That only deals with matters since 1772, however - but does have the advantage of having attempted to dig out and compare (using the daily mean CET figures) seriously cold periods that can lie hidden within an unexceptional month overall.

Before 1772 we only have the monthly CETs, but this does do some comparisons within the 350 year CET record. Not quite 400 years, it's true, but I've never heard it suggested that 1609-1659 was likely to have held unusually warm periods - it was, after all, part of the 'Little Ice Age'! Also, to be fair, by the measures I used, the completely unprecedented period is so far 18 years, not 22. But in combination with the first analysis, the record strongly suggests that the period since 1987 has been unique - though 'since 1991' is probably a safer certainty.

Would you accept that?

No.Having looked through the figures i suggest the modern warm period lasted from 1994 to 2007.This means that we are now in a post modern warm era.

As for this winter to come, if sea surface temps stay close to normal i would expect an average winter.IMO it is sea temps that are the biggest driver regarding our winters.

Interesting to note that during the medieval warm period sea temps(around britain)were 1 degree celcious warmer than today, and during the little ice age they were 1 degree colder than they are now

[Methuselah]

No.Having looked through the figures i suggest the modern warm period lasted from 1994 to 2007.This means that we are now in a post modern warm era.

As for this winter to come, if sea surface temps stay close to normal i would expect an average winter.IMO it is sea temps that are the biggest driver regarding our winters.

Interesting to note that during the medieval warm period sea temps(around britain)were 1 degree celcious warmer than today, and during the little ice age they were 1 degree colder than they are now

And, we know that? Did the Venerable Bede have a thermometer?

[MR EXTREMES]

first signs of something chilly on the way but maybe nothing to get over excited about but its just the waiting game.

ive set out my thoughts about this coming winter explaining cold spells are likely but mostly average or above depending on what nino does and this to is not set in stone as on other threads its been suggest nino is not as striaght forward as other years,

still im somewhat on the side of a stormy wet mild,

over all winter09/10.

mr brown has a certain swagger about his theories and has some very valid points i myself have never agreed with him totally but i feel he this year could be right but ofcoarse wait and see is the answer.

theres absolutely been warming since the 80s cold periods but it could well been just as warm as now back then,

partly because of the 80s cold,

was due to a major volcanic eruption.

but to be honest im happy to be wrong about winter and wish for something special this winter,

the uncertainties about this coming winter is what makes this very intresting and frustrating at the same time.

but with warmer sea temps,

warmer global temps than back in the day,

and a alantic thats fired up,

with lack of cold in the places that make a difference,

this is what pushes me away from the idear of a cold winter.

Edited November 21, 2009 by badboy657

[osmposm]

No.Having looked through the figures i suggest the modern warm period lasted from 1994 to 2007.......

Ah, OK. Which suggests you haven't actually looked at - or at least understood - those figures. My apologies for not making them clear enough.

To summarize more simply: talking only of temperatures in the CET area of the UK, last winter did not interrupt an unprecedented ongoing run of milder winters. This is true of whole calendar months, where the record goes back to 1659. It is also true of shorter periods, where the daily records can be examined back to 1772.

For the monthly figures since 1659:

the current and continuing run of 22 winters without a sub +1.0 month has only happened twice before;

the current and continuing run of 18 winters without a sub +2.0 month has never happened before;

the current and continuing run of 12 winters without a sub +3.0 month has never happened before - the previous record was just 6 winters.

For the daily figures since 1772:

the current and continuing run of 22 winters without a single day whose mean was -5.0 or below has never happened before;

the current and continuing run of 18 winters without a week where every day's mean was zero or below has never happened before;

the current and continuing run of 13 winters without a 3-day period where every day's mean was -2.0 or below has never happened before.

These are unpalatable facts, but facts they are, and to deny them is...well...to be in denial. Perhaps it was as mild as this a thousand or fifteen hundred years ago, I don't really know. But in our British cultural memory, winters have never been so mild.

Perhaps things will change soon, perhaps it is just a natural cycle that will shortly reverse - how nice that would be. But as yet there is no sign that things have even started to do so. And on that basis I do not expect this winter to offer anything in the way of significant cold, though there will doubtless be a bit of half-baked snow and ice to contend with for some.

[Mondy]

The thread title is named "Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4"..

Why, then, are we discussing the CET which only covers a triangular area from Lancashire, Bristol and London as a yardstick to UK winter/autumn temp records? To omit GREAT swathes of the UK, in particular northern UK which does actually experience lower temperatures is, in my view, unfair and wrong. Thus, to use the CET to discuss Winter 2010 is not representative of the entire UK, unless Central England is the United Kingdom ?

Btw, am I correct in saying the Hadley Centre, or to be precise, the Climate Data Monitoring of the Hadley Centre maintain the CET data? I wouldn't trust anything they say!

[Methuselah]

I agree Os. The facts speak for themselves!

I moved to Inverness in December 1988 expecting the city to be regularly cut-off by snow, as it so-often was in the 60s, late 70s and 80s...But, barring the odd shortlived 'Snowmageddon', that hardly ever happens these days...

So, I agree with Ian Brown, in that some kind of pattern-change has occurred...That said, further changes (or none) could occur at any time...Warmer or colder - I do not know. Who does?

[MR EXTREMES]

I agree Os. The facts speak for themselves!

I moved to Inverness in December 1988 expecting the city to be regularly cut-off by snow, as it so-often was in the 60s, late 70s and 80s...But, barring the odd shortlived 'Snowmageddon', that hardly ever happens these days...

So, I agree with Ian Brown, in that some kind of pattern-change has occurred...That said, further changes (or none) could occur at any time...Warmer or colder - I do not know. Who does?

totally agree im certain a colder climate will be apon us when and how is a big ?

it also goes to show along with most of northern europe that this pattern change has happened,

russia norway even siberia has not been as cold as its been in the past so you cant really say its localised warming.

but there are certain things that have shown signs of change,

if thease where to continue it may help in the future winters,

but the waiting game continues you never know maybe the climate hacker may have some answers lol.

it wernt you mr brown was it

Edited November 21, 2009 by badboy657

[Iceni]

Ah, OK. Which suggests you haven't actually looked at - or at least understood - those figures. My apologies for not making them clear enough.

To summarize more simply: talking only of temperatures in the CET area of the UK, last winter did not interrupt an unprecedented ongoing run of milder winters. This is true of whole calendar months, where the record goes back to 1659. It is also true of shorter periods, where the daily records can be examined back to 1772.

For the monthly figures since 1659:

the current and continuing run of 22 winters without a sub +1.0 month has only happened twice before;

the current and continuing run of 18 winters without a sub +2.0 month has never happened before;

the current and continuing run of 12 winters without a sub +3.0 month has never happened before - the previous record was just 6 winters.

For the daily figures since 1772:

the current and continuing run of 22 winters without a single day whose mean was -5.0 or below has never happened before;

the current and continuing run of 18 winters without a week where every day's mean was zero or below has never happened before;

the current and continuing run of 13 winters without a 3-day period where every day's mean was -2.0 or below has never happened before.

These are unpalatable facts, but facts they are, and to deny them is...well...to be in denial. Perhaps it was as mild as this a thousand or fifteen hundred years ago, I don't really know. But in our British cultural memory, winters have never been so mild.

Perhaps things will change soon, perhaps it is just a natural cycle that will shortly reverse - how nice that would be. But as yet there is no sign that things have even started to do so. And on that basis I do not expect this winter to offer anything in the way of significant cold, though there will doubtless be a bit of half-baked snow and ice to contend with for some.

Well said. It surprises me that so many are in denial on here… perhaps they are too young to remember when the British Isles had 4 distinct seasons. Cough up as much data as you like, such as the odd 12 October days, 25–30 years ago, where the temperature was in the high teens or low twenties — I remember British winters were proper winters with ice, snow and frosts the norm — not something people would stay up all night to witness (on NetWeather if it had existed ) as they were such a novelty, they didn't do this because cold and really cold conditions were commonplace.

[mountain shadow]

I agree Os. The facts speak for themselves!

I moved to Inverness in December 1988 expecting the city to be regularly cut-off by snow, as it so-often was in the 60s, late 70s and 80s...But, barring the odd shortlived 'Snowmageddon', that hardly ever happens these days...

So, I agree with Ian Brown, in that some kind of pattern-change has occurred...That said, further changes (or none) could occur at any time...Warmer or colder - I do not know. Who does?

I would say the improvement in the road network and gritting/snow plough technology has as much do with that as anything. Also, find it hard to believe Inverness would be cut off for any lengthy period of time. Over the A9 maybe, but not the coast road towards Aberdeen.

[Methuselah]

It's also true that, by demarkating(sp?) the start of the Mmmmmm...as being 1988, the cold(er) winters of 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2009 have all occurred within this er..timeframe. And, IMO, that fact alone implies (quite strongly) that severe winters are not impossible...

Always unlikely, but not impossible!

[johnholmes]

For the monthly figures since 1659:

the current and continuing run of 22 winters without a sub +1.0 month has only happened twice before;

the current and continuing run of 18 winters without a sub +2.0 month has never happened before;

the current and continuing run of 12 winters without a sub +3.0 month has never happened before - the previous record was just 6 winters.

For the daily figures since 1772:

the current and continuing run of 22 winters without a single day whose mean was -5.0 or below has never happened before;

the current and continuing run of 18 winters without a week where every day's mean was zero or below has never happened before;

the current and continuing run of 13 winters without a 3-day period where every day's mean was -2.0 or below has never happened before.

anything in the way of significant cold, though there will doubtless be a bit of half-baked snow and ice to contend with for some.

impressive set of stats there Os-tks for producing the facts rather than ones memories which I'v referred to before as not being too reliable at times.

[DAVID SNOW]

And, we know that? Did the Venerable Bede have a thermometer?

North atlantic temps are dated for that period using a radiocarbon-dated box core in the sargasso sea.

Sorry last off topic post.

Just to reply, i looked at the annual temps not monthly.Years with a sub 10 degree figure would seem to fit into the long term average and since 1989 we have had 6,

1991. 9.52 1992. 9.86 1993.9.49 1996.9.20 2001.9.93 2008.9.96 .And imo sub 10 years will become the norm again in the years to come.

[mcweather]

I agree Os. The facts speak for themselves!

I moved to Inverness in December 1988 expecting the city to be regularly cut-off by snow, as it so-often was in the 60s, late 70s and 80s...But, barring the odd shortlived 'Snowmageddon', that hardly ever happens these days...

So, I agree with Ian Brown, in that some kind of pattern-change has occurred...That said, further changes (or none) could occur at any time...Warmer or colder - I do not know. Who does?

Hi Peter

I love Inverness as a city and regularly visit it on my hillwalking forays to the north west highlands.

With regards to Inverness being cut off much more in the 60,s 70,s and 80's could this not have just as much do with the much improved road network. When I first travelled to Inverness in 1981 the A9 was barely as wide as my backstreet in the suburbs of Bournemouth and it was very closed in which I would have thought would lead to an increased threat of drifting compared to the wide open and uncluttered A9 as it is now.

Although we have undoubtedly warmed I think a moderate fall of snow on the A9 back in the 60's and 70's would probably have caused far more problems than it would now.

Edited November 21, 2009 by mcweather

[Optimus Prime]

And imo sub 10 years will become the norm again in the years to come.

What are you basing that on?.. Gut feeling?

[Methuselah]

North atlantic temps are dated for that period using a radiocarbon-dated box core in the sargasso sea.

Sorry last off topic post.

Just to reply, i looked at the annual temps not monthly.Years with a sub 10 degree figure would seem to fit into the long term average and since 1989 we have had 6,

1991. 9.52 1992. 9.86 1993.9.49 1996.9.20 2001.9.93 2008.9.96 .And imo sub 10 years will become the norm again in the years to come.

I won't go into proxies, David, and I see no reason to doubt your figures; but, it's fair to say (IMO) that a fair few 'sceptics' often question their (proxies') validity...

My real point is, though, that none of us knows exactly what the future holds. IMO, we are all guessing??

Hi Peter

I love Inverness as a city and regularly visit it on my hillwalking forays to the north west highlands.

With regards to Inverness being cut off much more in the 60,s 70,s and 80's could this not have just as much do with the much improved road network. When I first travelled to Inverness in 1981 the A9 was barely as wide as my backstreet in the suburbs of Bournemouth and it was very closed in which I would have thought would lead to an increased threat of drifting compared to the wide open and uncluttered A9 as it is now.

Although we have undoubtedly warmed I think a moderate fall of snow on the A9 back in the 60's and 70's would probably have caused far more problems than it would now.

Yes mate! You do have a very valid point...

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi Peter

I love Inverness as a city and regularly visit it on my hillwalking forays to the north west highlands.

With regards to Inverness being cut off much more in the 60,s 70,s and 80's could this not have just as much do with the much improved road network. When I first travelled to Inverness in 1981 the A9 was barely as wide as my backstreet in the suburbs of Bournemouth and it was very closed in which I would have thought would lead to an increased threat of drifting compared to the wide open and uncluttered A9 as it is now.

Although we have undoubtedly warmed I think a moderate fall of snow on the A9 back in the 60's and 70's would probably have caused far more problems than it would now.

I think that is a very good point. Although snowfall events have become less frequent than they used to be, the level of snow needed to close infrastructure down has undoubtedly increased, and I believe this has perhaps affected our perception of snow events becoming more moderate. I'm not denying a change in the severity of winter's, just suggesting that it has perhaps been exarcerbated by the ability of the authorities to keep roads and schools open even in severe snow events (with the possible exception of London this year )

[shuggee]

Are we sure? What year was it the M11 shut after three flakes of snow?!

[Derp Patrol]

The cold winters of the past in the 60s and 80s were anomolies in terms of what we should be experiencing.. We have a massive ocean to our west, our winters should be mild and wet with some short cold spells, some people here expect us to have the extreme cold events of the 60s, but we live in a temperate maritime climate, not a continental climate..

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have a feeling that it's the other way around- if anything the recent run of mild winters has made us less prepared for snow and it requires less snow to cause infrastructure to shut down.