Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4

[Nights King]

if there isnt much snow around this winter would people still be happy if we had some super cold days(no snow)

To be honest... no! Cold is nice dont get me wrong and while working outside cold and dry winter is better than a wet one but i would rather get a wet mild winter with few snowy outbreaks than a cold anticyclonic winter with nothing but frost.

As for wet and mild the only one thing i like to be wet and warm.. is my cupa tea.

[fear sneachta]

So, it'll basically be a mild, damp winter with a couple of brief cold interludes in January. Knew it!

[Winter Warmer]

So, it'll basically be a mild, damp winter with a couple of brief cold interludes in January. Knew it!

never can be sure might still be really cold

[Eugene]

This weekend early next week looks like being rather cold with daytime temps around 5C in the midlands/north(yes that is cold for this time of year when the average max is around 8C) with temps near 0C at night, i think people expect way too much of the weather in this country as the average max is around 8C now and is around 17C for late May, of course people call 17C warm then but now if its 8C its suddenly mild when to most people its not.

[Snowyowl9]

2000 miles wetter here, this year not even had flooding on the prone fields by river, where as in 2000 that area was like the sea and stafford town centre flooded 6th-8th, my tenpin league rained off on 7th Nov :unsure:

Well here it`s actually very close to 2000 which gave 175mm(5")

This month already 160mm!!!!

This weekend early next week looks like being rather cold with daytime temps around 5C in the midlands/north(yes that is cold for this time of year when the average max is around 8C) with temps near 0C at night, i think people expect way too much of the weather in this country as the average max is around 8C now and is around 17C for late May, of course people call 17C warm then but now if its 8C its suddenly mild when to most people its not.

It`s quite cold this weekened yep but going by 2004/2005 here 2c lowest max.

2006 was higher low max of 5.4c on the 21st...5.9c on the 2nd.

2007 gave 3.3c

And last year just 1c so we`ve gone backwards this year this autumn.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn13217.png

Might well get the first air frost but not this month,just follows through into december 1st.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn13817.png

Edited November 25, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[stewfox]

So, it'll basically be a mild, damp winter with a couple of brief cold interludes in January. Knew it!

Dont worry its going to be a hot dry summer in 2010 and a real cold winter in 2014

I know its in my tea leaves.

Nobody knows what January will be like apart from the fact some bed store having their biggest sale ever.

Edited November 25, 2009 by stewfox

[Weather-history]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

180.4 1951

178.6 1970

176.2 2002

174.4 1810

165.9 1963

163.9 1954

162.1 1939

160.9 1842

158.0 1946

157.9 1926

157.3 1772

155.2 1944

154.0 1836

152.3 1950

151.6 1984

151.6 1935

150.1 1888

150.0 1791

149.8 1960

148.5 1992

145.8 1800

145.6 1875

145.4 1822

142.5 1768

141.5 1877

140.7 1872

140.6 1821

139.7 1861

139.7 1840

138.3 1969

136mm up to 24th of November

[Weather-history]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

180.4 1951

178.6 1970

176.2 2002

174.4 1810

165.9 1963

163.9 1954

162.1 1939

160.9 1842

158.0 1946

157.9 1926

157.3 1772

155.2 1944

154.0 1836

152.3 1950

151.6 1984

151.6 1935

150.1 1888

150.0 1791

149.8 1960

148.5 1992

145.8 1800

145.6 1875

145.4 1822

142.5 1768

141.5 1877

140.7 1872

140.6 1821

140mm up to 25th November

[Weather-history]

Wettest months of the 2000s for England and Wales

October 2000: 188.0mm

November 2000: 182.1mm

November 2002: 176.2mm

August 2004: 156.5mm

October 2004: 154.9mm

June 2007: 154.7mm

December 2002: 147.5mm

January 2008: 146.1mm

October 2002: 144.2mm

April 2000: 142.6mm

December 2000: 142.2mm

November 2009 ~ 140mm (up to 25th)

[Snowyowl9]

Another 3 days more of PPN mostly rain to come especially for the south as lows take a much more S-ly track.

And last nights heavy rain in the SE aswell,less showers about today though.

This november will end up very wet indeed.

[kold weather]

Yeah November is going to end up in the top 10 wettest months of 2000s, very interesting to see just how many wet months there were in 2000, 2002 and 2004.

[bluearmy]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mMonNorm.gif

the much derided CFS now showing december to be average to cool for much of england. thats rather a change from only a week or so ago. wonder if joe B will amend his december forecast for mild for nw europe??

[phil nw.]

http://www.cpc.ncep....uT2mMonNorm.gif

the much derided CFS now showing december to be average to cool for much of england. thats rather a change from only a week or so ago. wonder if joe B will amend his december forecast for mild for nw europe??

It seems from those charts the cold gets stronger through the winter for UK and continent.

Interestingly Iceland shows warmer suggestive of Continental Cold from Easterlies rather than Arctic Northerlies.

All speculation though Blue Army.

[osmposm]

It seems from those charts the cold gets stronger through the winter for UK and continent....

...and indeed continues through March, April & May. 6 months on the trot below the mean for much of England & Ireland (and 5 for the North) would be an extraordinary turnaround - enough to make me happily re-examine my stance on where our climate is currently going (though I suspect we'd all be pretty fed up with it by April).

Interesting....but I'm not holding my breath. Have they had any predictive success in the last few years - presumably not if they're "much-derided"?

Edited November 28, 2009 by osmposm

[Weather-history]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

180.4 1951

178.6 1970

176.2 2002

174.4 1810

165.9 1963

163.9 1954

162.1 1939

160.9 1842

158.0 1946

157.9 1926

157.3 1772

155.2 1944

154.0 1836

152.3 1950

151.6 1984

151.6 1935

151mm up to 27th November

[SteveB]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

180.4 1951

178.6 1970

176.2 2002

174.4 1810

165.9 1963

163.9 1954

162.1 1939

160.9 1842

158.0 1946

157.9 1926

157.3 1772

155.2 1944

154.0 1836

152.3 1950

151.6 1984

151.6 1935

151mm up to 27th November

That list is getting shorter & shorter. I think we will end up around the 160mm mark

[Weather-history]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

180.4 1951

178.6 1970

176.2 2002

174.4 1810

166.0 ~ up to 28th November

[Cal]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

180.4 1951

178.6 1970

176.2 2002

174.4 1810

166.0 ~ up to 28th November

Ooh, made it into the top 10

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ooh, made it into the top 10

The soaking rains of yesterday and more today i suspect top 5 has been reached.

BFTP

[SteveB]

That blows my prediction out the window, maybe 2002 will be surpassed, & even 2000??

[Weather-history]

November 2009 is going to turn out of the wettest months ever recorded for England and Wales

Its already wetter than any February, April, May and June ever recorded.

There have been only 2 wetter Januarys, 1 wetter March, 1 wetter July, 3 wetter Augusts, 4 wetter Septembers, 7 wetter Octobers, 9 wetter Novembers and 10 wetter Decembers.

[Gavin P]

Funnily enough its not been *that* wet here. I mean, its been much wetter than average, but rainfall is still actually under 100mm here - 2002 was quite a bit wetter. Overall, I think we're got off quite lightly in Northants compared to other places. It remains to be seen wheter that remains the case heading into December...

Edited November 30, 2009 by Gavin P

[NorthantsSnow]

The latest CFS run (Sat 00z) is a big improvement on the last time I checked. Several notable cold snaps/spells, including potent northerlies and easterlies. The cold pattern extends well into April. The chart below for early Jan which I hope the mods won't mind be posting, shows just how full of potential this coming winter truly is:

Stop drooling and Subscribe to Netweather Extra here for more.

[paul tall]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

180.4 1951

178.6 1970

176.2 2002

174.4 1810

166.0 ~ up to 28th November

Whoa! 10th wettest November since records began. And climate change experts warn we can expect more like this as the effects of climate change become more pronounced, yada, yada, yada, etc, etc, yawn.

[Mark Bayley]

The latest CFS run (Sat 00z) is a big improvement on the last time I checked. Several notable cold snaps/spells, including potent northerlies and easterlies. The cold pattern extends well into April. The chart below for early Jan which I hope the mods won't mind be posting, shows just how full of potential this coming winter truly is:

Stop drooling and Subscribe to Netweather Extra here for more.

Interestingly most forecasts do seem to suggest that around or just after chirstmas into the middle of January will be the coldest part of winter. Hopfully it happens