Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4

[shuggee]

Last February's total cancellation of buses in London - for the first time in history, being a good example TWS

[DAVID SNOW]

What are you basing that on?.. Gut feeling?

Solar cycle 24 is a good start

[West is Best]

Well ... winter approaching and things are looking reasonably interesting I must say. Nice set up shaping into place for end of next week, and the placement of the polar front jet looks conducive to some cold spells.

Last winter brought the most stunning snowfall these parts have seen for the best part of 20 years, so it would be greedy to expect more! I remember one magic night when it just pelted down with snow and all power was lost. Was magic.

Can we see repeats? Well, the signs looks encouraging to me for some potent northerly incursions at times.

[Snowyowl9]

The thread title is named "Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4"..

Why, then, are we discussing the CET which only covers a triangular area from Lancashire, Bristol and London as a yardstick to UK winter/autumn temp records? To omit GREAT swathes of the UK, in particular northern UK which does actually experience lower temperatures is, in my view, unfair and wrong. Thus, to use the CET to discuss Winter 2010 is not representative of the entire UK, unless Central England is the United Kingdom ?

I would like a Wales temperature as I live here.

Welcome back West by the way we need some postive posts.

[J10]

It's also true that, by demarkating(sp?) the start of the Mmmmmm...as being 1988, the cold(er) winters of 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2009 have all occurred within this er..timeframe. And, IMO, that fact alone implies (quite strongly) that severe winters are not impossible...

Always unlikely, but not impossible!

A good point there. Even since 1988, there have been cold winters and heavy snow events. In fact locally, I think that this current decade has been snowier on the whole than the 90s from my recollections, however 1991 does impact significantly on this and this is only anecdotal evidence, as my detailed records only go back to the late 1990s. Neither decade was as snowy as the 1980s, as one of my first snow memories in the early 1980s tends to confirm.

Just because these events are less frequent than they once were, does not mean they do not happen, February 2009 shows this.

I would like a Wales temperature as I live here.

Welcome back West by the way we need some postive posts.

The Met Office does supply such information for parts of the UK.

Ian (TWS) kindly supplied with the link in the summer and here it is. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/index.html#

[fear sneachta]

Preliminary indications continue to suggest that winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year for the UK, but there is still a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter.

http://www.metoffice...009/winter.html

Edited November 21, 2009 by fear sneachta

[johnholmes]

that is pretty old hat mate-most on here are waiting for their full winter prediction-due before the end of November

[I remember Atlantic 252]

lol silly chart on GEFS control at 384, can tell a chart like that is at 384, ridiculous FI

[Snowyowl9]

The Met Office does supply such information for parts of the UK.

Ian (TWS) kindly supplied with the link in the summer and here it is. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/index.html#

Thanks for that link.

[osmposm]

The thread title is named "Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4"..

Why, then, are we discussing the CET which only covers a triangular area from Lancashire, Bristol and London as a yardstick to UK winter/autumn temp records? To omit GREAT swathes of the UK, in particular northern UK which does actually experience lower temperatures is, in my view, unfair and wrong. Thus, to use the CET to discuss Winter 2010 is not representative of the entire UK, unless Central England is the United Kingdom ?

Btw, am I correct in saying the Hadley Centre, or to be precise, the Climate Data Monitoring of the Hadley Centre maintain the CET data? I wouldn't trust anything they say!

I would dearly love to discuss the nature of the current mild period in the context of the whole UK. If you can find us detailed monthly records that go back 350 years, or detailed daily records that go back 230+, for the whole country, then we can start talking.

I analyze the CET records because they are the longest and most detailed available. And besides, it is normally suggested that in relative - though obviously not in absolute - terms, much the same changes that have affected the central-southerly part of the island of Great Britain have similarly affected its north & west, and N. Ireland.

I will happily (at some point!) do some analyzing of the whole-UK Areal series, but as they only begin in 1914, comparisons with the past record will be less significant.

And besides, since they are also maintained by the Hadley Centre, presumably they are fudged/fixed/invented, too!

Edited November 22, 2009 by osmposm

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, of course there's the debate over the Manley vs Hadley CET where Philip Eden argues that the Hadley CET contains some inhomogeneities with Manley's original work. But since both versions of the CET series show approximately the same amount of warming, it rather undermines the "the data is fudged" type arguments.

You can also try out records from different Met Office climatological stations- e.g. Durham, Ringway, Heathrow, Aviemore- they all show a pronounced warming trend. It appears that Central England warmed faster than Scotland and Northern Ireland during the 1988-1997 period but the reverse has been true since 1997, resulting in the regions warming by a similar amount overall.

[J10]

Using the Mean Temp figures, I have calculated the average temp for the period 1961-1990, 1988-1997 and finally for 1998-date. Unsurprisingly this confirms that all parts of the UK have seen temps rise since 1961-1990 and also a further rise from 1998. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/index.html#

There are regional variations are Ian is right that temps in southern areas rose greater in the period up to 1988, but since then any regional pattern is less conclusive. So that while every part of the UK has seen temps rise, this effect is more concentrated the further south and east you go.

So in winter the average temps have risen by 1.08c ( Comparing 1998-date temps to 1961-1990), ranging from 0.94c in Scotland to 1.19c in England.

For the entire year the average temps have risen by 0.98c ( Comparing 1998-date temps to 1961-1990), ranging from 0.86c in Scotland to 1.08c in England.

[phil nw.]

Using the Mean Temp figures, I have calculated the average temp for the period 1961-1990, 1988-1997 and finally for 1998-date. Unsurprisingly this confirms that all parts of the UK have seen temps rise since 1961-1990 and also a further rise from 1998. http://www.metoffice...ets/index.html#

There are regional variations are Ian is right that temps in southern areas rose greater in the period up to 1988, but since then any regional pattern is less conclusive. So that while every part of the UK has seen temps rise, this effect is more concentrated the further south and east you go.

So in winter the average temps have risen by 1.08c ( Comparing 1998-date temps to 1961-1990), ranging from 0.94c in Scotland to 1.19c in England.

For the entire year the average temps have risen by 0.98c ( Comparing 1998-date temps to 1961-1990), ranging from 0.86c in Scotland to 1.08c in England.

Good work there Jackone.

It does underline what i guess a lot of ,shall i say,more senior posters believe from memory.

We still get cold spells with snow but the duration of these are usually shorter and less severe than say in the 1960`s to 1980`s.

It is always usefull to see the evidence.

It`s not what cold/snow lovers would want to see and i number myself as one.

Edited November 22, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[Eugene]

Well ... winter approaching and things are looking reasonably interesting I must say. Nice set up shaping into place for end of next week, and the placement of the polar front jet looks conducive to some cold spells.

Last winter brought the most stunning snowfall these parts have seen for the best part of 20 years, so it would be greedy to expect more! I remember one magic night when it just pelted down with snow and all power was lost. Was magic.

Can we see repeats? Well, the signs looks encouraging to me for some potent northerly incursions at times.

Blimey, thats an unusually positive post from yourself west regarding winter prospects :o :o

Edited November 22, 2009 by Eugene

[DAVID SNOW]

Using the Mean Temp figures, I have calculated the average temp for the period 1961-1990, 1988-1997 and finally for 1998-date. Unsurprisingly this confirms that all parts of the UK have seen temps rise since 1961-1990 and also a further rise from 1998. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/index.html#

There are regional variations are Ian is right that temps in southern areas rose greater in the period up to 1988, but since then any regional pattern is less conclusive. So that while every part of the UK has seen temps rise, this effect is more concentrated the further south and east you go.

So in winter the average temps have risen by 1.08c ( Comparing 1998-date temps to 1961-1990), ranging from 0.94c in Scotland to 1.19c in England.

For the entire year the average temps have risen by 0.98c ( Comparing 1998-date temps to 1961-1990), ranging from 0.86c in Scotland to 1.08c in England.

yes,good work

I wonder though if the UHI effect has pushed up the cet figures artificially lets say,and if so, how much lower would they be without it?

The UHI effect traps heat at the surface and with a lack of vegetation reduces heat loss due to evapotranspiration.

With the towns and cities ever expanding, especially in the last 20 or 30 years, more and more buildings having air con and all homes and buildings having central heating would this impact upon the cet?

Just a thought.

For those not sure, UHI stands for Urban Heat Island.

[Cal]

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

Joe B seems to think his winter LRF is right on cue with the UK/France a battleline between cold and warm air.

Edited November 22, 2009 by shuggee

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.accuweath...m/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

Joe B seems to think his winter LRF is right on cue with the UK/France a battleline between cold and warm air.

Was about to click on the link only to notice that the filter on joe's surname has made it an incoherent group of letters.

Anyway, the raw CFS charts are still backing up the cold spell in late January, and also showing the mild December many forecasters have predicted. Obviously not conclusive but the trend has been there, in general, since the start of October.

[Ben_Cambs]

DO YOU THINK LANCASHIRE WILL GET SOME DECENT SNOWFALL THIS WINTER ?

All we have had is one decent day of snow last winter rest was just a slushy mess

You must of been quite unlucky last winter then, the north-west defiently got the least amount of snow last winter! Regarding this winter, your best chances of snow will come when a northerly blast comes, and this usually drives wintry showers down the western half of Britain. Last February, the blast was from the East, so you were very unlucky

[shuggee]

Have sorted out the link

[LomondSnowstorm]

Have sorted out the link

thanks

[Weather-history]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

180.4 1951

178.6 1970

176.2 2002

174.4 1810

165.9 1963

163.9 1954

162.1 1939

160.9 1842

158.0 1946

157.9 1926

157.3 1772

155.2 1944

154.0 1836

152.3 1950

151.6 1984

151.6 1935

150.1 1888

150.0 1791

149.8 1960

148.5 1992

145.8 1800

145.6 1875

145.4 1822

142.5 1768

141.5 1877

140.7 1872

140.6 1821

139.7 1861

139.7 1840

138.3 1969

135.6 1931

135.4 1824

134.3 1996

133.1 1974

132.2 1839

131.7 1838

131.4 1883

129.4 1794

128.4 1982

128.1 1930

128.0 1910

125.0 1773

123.4 1997

122.2 1895

122.0 1778

121.9 1790

121.3 1781

120.8 1986

120.5 1938

119.8 1959

118.0 1878

117.9 1806

117.7 1883

117.2 1890

116.6 2003

116.5 1841

116.4 1830

116.2 1911

115.8 1804

115.5 1807

115.3 2006

114.9 1832

114.2 1965

114.2 1894

113.0 1803

113.0 2009 up to 21st

[Weather-history]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

180.4 1951

178.6 1970

176.2 2002

174.4 1810

165.9 1963

163.9 1954

162.1 1939

160.9 1842

158.0 1946

157.9 1926

157.3 1772

155.2 1944

154.0 1836

152.3 1950

151.6 1984

151.6 1935

150.1 1888

150.0 1791

149.8 1960

148.5 1992

145.8 1800

145.6 1875

145.4 1822

142.5 1768

141.5 1877

140.7 1872

140.6 1821

139.7 1861

139.7 1840

138.3 1969

135.6 1931

135.4 1824

134.3 1996

133.1 1974

132.2 1839

131.7 1838

131.4 1883

129.4 1794

128.4 1982

128.1 1930

128.0 1910

125.0 1773

123.4 1997

122.2 1895

122.0 1778

121.9 1790

121.3 1781

121.0 2009 up to 22nd November

[Snowyowl9]

That is a large jump up the chart in one day,wettest november here since 2000.

What a relief this will be from the relentless atlantic SW-lys since the 1st of this month ,a much needed change of direction.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Edited November 24, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That is a large up the chart in one day,wettest november here since 2000.

What a relief this will be from the relentless atlantic SW-lys since the 1st of this month ,a much needed change of direction.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif

2000 miles wetter here, this year not even had flooding on the prone fields by river, where as in 2000 that area was like the sea and stafford town centre flooded 6th-8th, my tenpin league rained off on 7th Nov

[Winter Warmer]

if there isnt much snow around this winter would people still be happy if we had some super cold days(no snow)