Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4

[Fozfoster]

Winter has not started yet! But the fun has

[damianslaw]

It seems people as they seem to always do are letting the conditions of the moment muddy there long term seasonal thinking, I'm sure if we were in a cold spell now, we would be having lots more posts of predictions of a cold winter ahead, just like probabilities of a white christmas shoot up if/when we get the first dose of snow of the year.

It is not looking a straightforward winter to predict at all, yes we have El Nino but there are too many other factors which could easily overide its influences particularly it seems as we head into the latter part of the season..

Compared to last year I doubt we will see as settled a winter, last year was very settled in the main with long periods of high pressure (late dec-early jan and second half of Feb for many were near bone dry periods). However, my own personal hunch is for some very wet and possibly very snowy periods at times more so during the first half of the season, big swings from tropical maritime to polar maritime air the order of the day with plenty of freeze thaw action, hopefully one of the polar maritime periods will coincide with christmas. The second half is likely to be the colder half of the winter with easterlies much more likely as is nearly always the case with our winters, rarely do they get going until after christmas, last years cold start was quite unusual.

[john mac]

not long now though, this forum will be heaving very soon :wacko:

[Fozfoster]

It seems people as they seem to always do are letting the conditions of the moment muddy there long term seasonal thinking, I'm sure if we were in a cold spell now, we would be having lots more posts of predictions of a cold winter ahead, just like probabilities of a white christmas shoot up if/when we get the first dose of snow of the year.

It is not looking a straightforward winter to predict at all, yes we have El Nino but there are too many other factors which could easily overide its influences particularly it seems as we head into the latter part of the season..

Compared to last year I doubt we will see as settled a winter, last year was very settled in the main with long periods of high pressure (late dec-early jan and second half of Feb for many were near bone dry periods). However, my own personal hunch is for some very wet and possibly very snowy periods at times more so during the first half of the season, big swings from tropical maritime to polar maritime air the order of the day with plenty of freeze thaw action, hopefully one of the polar maritime periods will coincide with christmas. The second half is likely to be the colder half of the winter with easterlies much more likely as is nearly always the case with our winters, rarely do they get going until after christmas, last years cold start was quite unusual.

[/quote

Sounds about right that fella,but we shell see.

[MR EXTREMES]

im not so sure about easterlies this winter i honestly feel there be no letup in the alantic domination,

we of coarse will have cold snaps which im always dissapointed with,

but thease winters are something we get used to.

last winter was,

although nothing like 80s,

was for me good to see plenty of high pressure cold frosty and then a snow event.

this year is a totally different setup i see nothing to suggest cold now,

but could understand the logic in thinking before summers end and why a cold winter could be on the cards,

but just maybe last winter has spawned thease idears that this year will be the same or even colder,

i see nothing myself that suggests this infact the globe over all is a little warmer this winter,

there was good signs at the start of october with russia seeing some cold and likewise north america but this soon changed as nino tightened its grip and continues to do so.

jet stream was also a exciting subject when it came to 1 of the factors for a good winter,

this also is not playing ball the alantic is really fired up and is looking to stay this way,

i agree maybe im being hasty or maybe im just using past winters with same kind of setup,

to come to my conclusions,

im also very guilty of taking notice of peoples idears ie joe b and feel that this year he will get it wrong which im dissapointed with,

but it taught me a vital lesson which joe preaches which is trust your own idears,

thats why i feel this winter will be a dissapointment if your a snowy winter lover like me.

i hope im wrong but certain i wont be.

[ribster]

id take no notice of the fi charts or the cfs charts.

you also hit the nail on the head with typical 2000 winter.

its worth pointing out how any winters dominated by el nino have been poor and not just 1 month where talking about,

but through the entire winter.

theres was also lots of talk on jet shifting south this has also been against what people were or would like to happen from what ive seen its been doing what it was pre 08/09 and thats staying north,

this is also likely to continue with a mild very stormy winter on the cards.

so we have to give the met office credit where due also mr brown,

whether they would have been right if la nina had dominated then who knows but either way.

we have nothing to look foward to if you like the cold im also convinced solar activity has very little effect which is far from my throughts back in the summer.

last year was a minor blip and thease could happen again at some point but not this winter thats for sure.

Oh dear, you don't know any of this for sure, if you did you would be a very rich man. Just the usual melancholic nonsense that I have come to expect - your opinion granted, which you're entitled to - you talk as if someone is about to be buried!

[cyclonic happiness]

To me, it seems as if the jet is already trying to push south.

All these gales we are having of late, are all tracking over the middle of Britain rather than between Iceland and Scotland.

This autumn so far, feels to me like 1990/1.

Nothing scientific about that, but you get to notice things after a while and we just don't get gales in the midlands that often, but now, we've had 3 days worth on the trott and maybe another 3 to come?

This to me, just doesn't feel like a even larger teapot/autumn, it's like an early '90's one.

[MR EXTREMES]

Oh dear, you don't know any of this for sure, if you did you would be a very rich man. Just the usual melancholic nonsense that I have come to expect - your opinion granted, which you're entitled to - you talk as if someone is about to be buried!

i already stated that im certain im just simply saying from experience this type of early setup in nino years has been very prolonged.

i also clearly stated that of coarse cold snaps will happen they do even in nino years but it wont be like 08/09 winter im certain of that i dont think its nonsense at all.

ofcoarse things could change in a dramatic way but its very very unlikely,

its true the jet is trying to shift south but trying is different to has its also important how far south it goes id expect it to track south but not to the degree where it will benifit us.

the jet also holds firm in nino years and nino is not expected to loosen its grip anytime soon.

[Weather-history]

yep remember the winters in the 80s

People tend to forget that the 2nd mildest winter on record for the CET occurred in the 1980s ala 1988-89.

The winters of the 1980s were not all cold and snowy affairs.

[MR EXTREMES]

People tend to forget that the 2nd mildest winter on record for the CET occurred in the 1980s ala 1988-89.

The winters of the 1980s were not all cold and snowy affairs.

absolutely right mr data they where not all cold and snowy,

but when they where it was colder than the 2000s frosts where hard aswell since 97/98 things never where the same perhapes this trend will continue until something switches in our climate but at this moment in time its the mild winter we have become used to.

[North-Easterly Blast]

People tend to forget that the 2nd mildest winter on record for the CET occurred in the 1980s ala 1988-89.

The winters of the 1980s were not all cold and snowy affairs.

People tend to quote the 80s as being a cold decade for winters, when in actual fact it was the 1977-1987 period that was a decade dominated by mostly cold and often snowy winters. The late 80s was the start of the very mild winters that have generally persisted throughout the 1990s and 2000s. We started to get some better winters in 1976-77 and this lasted until 1986-87, reaching its peak in 1978-79, and this severe winter was followed by a number of cold, albeit less cold winters in the early and mid 80s. In this period most winters were often cold or at the very least had some severe weather at some point in them. In the 1977-87 era even the lesser, milder winters were not especially mild, and even the milder months were rarely extremely mild. Then after 1986-87 it all came to an end.

Unlike 1962-63, which was out of the blue and was not surrounded near other cold winters but less cold ones than 1962-63, the 1977-87 era may well qualify as the best decade of the 1900s for cold winters, and if anything saw more notable cold spells than the 1960s, and certainly there could hardly be a greater contrast between the cold 1977-87 era and the general pattern of the UK winters during the last 22 years.

[WhiteXmas]

I tend to disagree badboy I haven't become used to mild winters at all although maybe your situation is different further south.

Edited November 19, 2009 by WhiteXmas

[stewfox]

People tend to quote the 80s as being a cold decade for winters, when in actual fact it was the 1977-1987 period that was a decade dominated by mostly cold and often snowy winters. The late 80s was the start of the very mild winters that have generally persisted throughout the 1990s and 2000s. We started to get some better winters in 1976-77 and this lasted until 1986-87, reaching its peak in 1978-79, and this severe winter was followed by a number of cold, albeit less cold winters in the early and mid 80s. In this period most winters were often cold or at the very least had some severe weather at some point in them. In the 1977-87 era even the lesser, milder winters were not especially mild, and even the milder months were rarely extremely mild. Then after 1986-87 it all came to an end.

Unlike 1962-63, which was out of the blue and was not surrounded near other cold winters but less cold ones than 1962-63, the 1977-87 era may well qualify as the best decade of the 1900s for cold winters, and if anything saw more notable cold spells than the 1960s, and certainly there could hardly be a greater contrast between the cold 1977-87 era and the general pattern of the UK winters during the last 22 years.

Good summary

Of course there were some mild days I think it was Jan 84 it reached 13c/14c for few days but not months of mild.

1977- 1987 what could we call that the 'tiny little cold burp'

Edited November 19, 2009 by stewfox

[Shunter]

CFS European temperature profile updated......

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mMonNorm.gif

Shows a slight warming ( compared to previous forecast ) across North West Europe but still average or below for periods December to April overall. Will be interesting to see how these forecasts "play out" if this current trough persists for a few more weeks.

[karyo]

CFS European temperature profile updated......

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mMonNorm.gif

Shows a slight warming ( compared to previous forecast ) across North West Europe but still average or below for periods December to April overall. Will be interesting to see how these forecasts "play out" if this current trough persists for a few more weeks.

It shows how horribly above average the continent is during November! December has been projected to be below average for quite some time and we are coming close to it now, (11 days to go), so fingers crossed it will verify! However, most forecasts I read go for a mild December so it will be interesting to see whether CFS has got it right!

Karyo

[stewfox]

It shows how horribly above average the continent is during November! December has been projected to be below average for quite some time and we are coming close to it now, (11 days to go), so fingers crossed it will verify! However, most forecasts I read go for a mild December so it will be interesting to see whether CFS has got it right!

Karyo

Could you provide a link to which forcasters go for a mild December ?

[karyo]

Could you provide a link to which forcasters go for a mild December ?

I don't have a link but GP, RJS&BFTP ( from net weather) and Joe laminate floori go for a mild December!

Karyo

[ribster]

i already stated that im certain im just simply saying from experience this type of early setup in nino years has been very prolonged.

i also clearly stated that of coarse cold snaps will happen they do even in nino years but it wont be like 08/09 winter im certain of that i dont think its nonsense at all.

ofcoarse things could change in a dramatic way but its very very unlikely,

its true the jet is trying to shift south but trying is different to has its also important how far south it goes id expect it to track south but not to the degree where it will benifit us.

the jet also holds firm in nino years and nino is not expected to loosen its grip anytime soon.

All I can say is, lets see what you're saying come the end of Feb. There are lots of factors that I know I and I'm pretty sure you (I may be wrong) can't even begin to understand.

I don't have a link but GP, RJS&BFTP ( from net weather) and Joe laminate floori go for a mild December!

Karyo

Indeed, with a change happening late December.

[cheeky_monkey]

People tend to quote the 80s as being a cold decade for winters, when in actual fact it was the 1977-1987 period that was a decade dominated by mostly cold and often snowy winters. The late 80s was the start of the very mild winters that have generally persisted throughout the 1990s and 2000s. We started to get some better winters in 1976-77 and this lasted until 1986-87, reaching its peak in 1978-79, and this severe winter was followed by a number of cold, albeit less cold winters in the early and mid 80s. In this period most winters were often cold or at the very least had some severe weather at some point in them. In the 1977-87 era even the lesser, milder winters were not especially mild, and even the milder months were rarely extremely mild. Then after 1986-87 it all came to an end.

Unlike 1962-63, which was out of the blue and was not surrounded near other cold winters but less cold ones than 1962-63, the 1977-87 era may well qualify as the best decade of the 1900s for cold winters, and if anything saw more notable cold spells than the 1960s, and certainly there could hardly be a greater contrast between the cold 1977-87 era and the general pattern of the UK winters during the last 22 years.

I still think it came to end after 1996-7 the geranral winter pattern of the 20th century of mild winters intersperesd with colder winters continued to this point with 90-91 & 95-96 following on from 86-7.

[kippure]

I don't have a link but GP, RJS&BFTP ( from net weather) and Joe laminate floori go for a mild December!

Karyo

Rogars and bftp,s forecast

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57598-winter-lrf-by-rjs-and-bftp/page__view__findpost__p__1615485

http://www.accuweath...=VBLOG_laminate floorI&title=A Look at the Euro Winter

http://www.accuweath...m/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

Joes early forecast

Edited November 19, 2009 by kippure

[Don]

This current rut we're stuck in is reminding me somewhat of those dreadful months of November and December 1994, where we had week after week of mild and wet weather with no end in sight! Winter 94/95 was a stinker most part for the south at least, but March 95 wasn't bad. Does anyone have any thoughts on the similarities?

[Thundery wintry showers]

The current pattern is more akin to that of December 1994 than November 1994. November, which was widely the warmest on record, had predominantly southerly winds and was quite anticyclonic in the second half- essentially blocking in the right places to give Britain anomalously warm conditions. It wasn't until 3 December that Britain became locked into a generally mild, blustery, mobile south-westerly type.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I still think it came to end after 1996-7 the geranral winter pattern of the 20th century of mild winters intersperesd with colder winters continued to this point with 90-91 & 95-96 following on from 86-7.

That's not entirely true. Winter 87-88 was largely mild with few cold spells, 88-89 & 89-90 were two of the mildest winters on record, with a Bartlett High / Greenland Polar Vortex never far away for the whole winters, and saw an almost complete absence of cold weather. All this marked the start and set the trend of the even larger teapot era. 91-92 and 92-93 were less mild but lacked snow for most of the UK as a whole, and the only cold spells in those winters were from inversion cold (Rex blocks). 94-95 was zonal and very mild overall, although a brief short spell of cold zonality brought snow to N England in late Jan, and Mar 95 saw quite a lot of wet snow in N England and Scotland. It is true that 1987-88 was the start of the even larger teapot phase 1 era, and 1997 was the start of the christmas pudding phase 2 era.

[Iceni]

This current rut we're stuck in is reminding me somewhat of those dreadful months of November and December 1994, where we had week after week of mild and wet weather with no end in sight! Winter 94/95 was a stinker most part for the south at least, but March 95 wasn't bad. Does anyone have any thoughts on the similarities?

Yes but Christmas Eve/Day that year were fantastic with an icy hoar frost in the South and East Anglia — I've got the pictures to prove it somewhere. We were in Ireland for a short break and I remember we couldn't take the Sea Cat back for the return trip because of the storms, so took the ferry instead. But a week or two later it became very cold and more seasonal, no snow but a very respectable frost and lots of ice.

[LomondSnowstorm]

This current rut we're stuck in is reminding me somewhat of those dreadful months of November and December 1994, where we had week after week of mild and wet weather with no end in sight! Winter 94/95 was a stinker most part for the south at least, but March 95 wasn't bad. Does anyone have any thoughts on the similarities?

Well 94/95 had an el nino that peaked at 1.3 at a fairly similar time to now. It was very mild overall, with a CET of 5.9C, meaning that March 1995 (at 5.6C CET) was actually colder than the average for the winter! It may well be like that, but then again look what the next winter was like!

I haven't forgotton. As we know, the christmas pudding appears to have begun in the late 1980s.

I'm not going to argue with your comment (at the moment at least), just pointing out a slight typo.

CW