Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4

[cooling climate]

Much more in the way of northern blocking around this coming winter compared to last and for us at least, a colder maybe much colder winter is on the cards compared to last.

Thats my punt anyway.

Edited November 17, 2009 by cooling climate

[Backtrack]

Yes, the medium range model charts are showing colder conditions in early December, but at the end of October they showed cold conditions for around this week, so they are not entirely accurate and there is still two weeks until Decembe, so anything can change! But im certainly hoping for a cold snap soon with snow!

They were right about this week being a little colder than the rest of the month. Sunday is looking chilly with maximums of around 4-8c.

Take a gander at my winter forecast if you want a rough idea of cold snaps ect.

XC weather have there first snow in the forecasts for parts of Scotland on Sunday. This i should imagine will be fairly accurate.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited November 17, 2009 by Backtrack

[Ben_Cambs]

They were right about this week being a little colder than the rest of the month. Sunday is looking chilly with maximums of around 4-8c.

Take a gander at my winter forecast if you want a rough idea of cold snaps ect.

http://forum.netweat...forecast-09-10/

XC weather have there first snow in the forecasts for parts of Scotland on Sunday. This i should imagine will be fairly accurate.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

The charts are showing possibly cooler conditions next week but most likely wet weather aswell

[James M]

yes i agree people here are not in northern ireland or anywhere else so when i put temps alot lower than meto they think im lying but im not its just that the meto make things loook colder in scotland than everywhere else...

EDit: i think its quit possible here because if the max is only 3-4c i think it should hover around 2c and as i am higher it would be 1c ( it sounds mad but im going by the models) so its clearly possible

and yes i am taking into consideration dewpoints and dam and all that..... if the charts are showing snow, i think that boosts the chance aswell.But i think this will all go bang and return to mild boring weather by tomorrow.

Here's some advice frostyjoe, stop expecting it too snow at the slightest hint on the models, if I were you stop looking out for snow all together as the snow will come when you least expect it!

[Bristawl Si]

Here's some advice frostyjoe, stop expecting it too snow at the slightest hint on the models, if I were you stop looking out for snow all together as the snow will come when you least expect it!

What a difference to that 1st week in February this year when the netweather site was in meltdown, with everyone having their own regional snow updates!

It's only November; i've seen plenty of mild starts to winter, only for change to cold, snowy conditions to come. On the other hand i've seen mild, wet start to winters and that weather carrying on for the rest of winter!

[Ben_Cambs]

Here's some advice frostyjoe, stop expecting it too snow at the slightest hint on the models, if I were you stop looking out for snow all together as the snow will come when you least expect it!

Although this is slighlty off topic, On the 3rd/4th January 2008, Northern Ireland was only forecast a few snow showers but against the forecasts there was a decent covering of snow?

[azores92]

I think a winter of 4.5 to 5 looks quite reasonable, with very little chance of a cold December, maybe a 20-40% chance of a cold Jan and maybe 20% of a cold Feb.

how'd you come to that iceberg? dont have a clue how you can work out probabilities for cold winter months at this stage

[johnholmes]

I think its time, possibly overdue, to wheel out the annual winter DIY kit

will it or won't it snow?

simply follow the directions given in the link using the data available on NW Extra, remembering to make an adjustment for your height amsl and

MOST IMPORTANT

IF there is NIL or only very light precip predicted then FORGET about getting any snow on that particular day/time.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/

When I, and Paul, get time I hope to make this into a video using an actual predicted event, and using a location, inland but near sea level.

Is it possible Paul for this to be stickied or whatever at the top of this link and the model thread rather than trying to remember its location each time someone pm's me for it?

thanks if it is.

or

can I have a fiver for every time I'm asked?

[LomondSnowstorm]

They were right about this week being a little colder than the rest of the month. Sunday is looking chilly with maximums of around 4-8c.

Take a gander at my winter forecast if you want a rough idea of cold snaps ect.

http://forum.netweat...forecast-09-10/

XC weather have there first snow in the forecasts for parts of Scotland on Sunday. This i should imagine will be fairly accurate.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

I decided to get my forecast in before BFTP posted his . Anyway, check it out http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57599-lomondsnowstorms-winter-forecast-0910/ .

CW

[Iceberg]

how'd you come to that iceberg? dont have a clue how you can work out probabilities for cold winter months at this stage

Morning Azores, I think probabilities are much more useful and accurate than actual forecasts. Its based on the years that GP gave, which tbh map into my own thoughts very well and reading Rogers forecast seem to map into his, that Jan is probably the best month for cold and that it's likely to be cold zonality (hope I got that right). I am not as bullish and think we will have to be lucky to get it and it will require all the normal bits falling into place.

GLAAM is going more negative still which is a good thing from what GP has said. In these set ups cold CETS are few are far between

[MAF]

i wonder if they know something we don't

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/derbyshire/8363554.stm

[NorthantsSnow]

i wonder if they know something we don't

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/derbyshire/8363554.stm

:unsure:

Probably just covering themselves after last year when supplies of grit were running dangerously low towards the end of the February cold spell.

[Ben_Cambs]

Probably just covering themselves after last year when supplies of grit were running dangerously low towards the end of the February cold spell.

I remember that in February, when only the main roads could be gritted, and the ambulance and fire service were streched to their limits in some areas, i hope this winter the government has ordered enough grit so most roads can be gritted

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I remember that in February, when only the main roads could be gritted, and the ambulance and fire service were streched to their limits in some areas, i hope this winter the government has ordered enough grit so most roads can be gritted

Yep. Remember driving down to London in the evening when we got the bad weather.

Was raining at home, but by the time I got about 15-20 miles south on the M1, it turned to sleet, and then snow about 5 miles further. I then had to drive from Leicester Forest East to just north of Luton with the snow settling on the M1. Was not the most enjoyable evening of driving, but a lovely site (at 20-30mph) nonetheless.

[MR EXTREMES]

yep remember the winters in the 80s but im very sure now that a winter like 08/09 is very much not going to happen.

its amazing the hype thats now starting to dwindle away.

for the first time in years i now think joe b is very wrong infact i feel any talk of a colder winter was very much over hyped but for once the met office are going to get it spot on this year.

it would seem gw and el nino have destroyed any chance of anything cold.

and even talk of el nino becoming a mega event futher into 2010.

but still i said a little while ago that mild very mild wet stormy will continue right through winter and im certain of this now.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yep remember the winters in the 80s but im very sure now that a winter like 08/09 is very much not going to happen.

its amazing the hype thats now starting to dwindle away.

for the first time in years i now think joe b is very wrong infact i feel any talk of a colder winter was very much over hyped but for once the met office are going to get it spot on this year.

it would seem gw and el nino have destroyed any chance of anything cold.

and even talk of el nino becoming a mega event futher into 2010.

but still i said a little while ago that mild very mild wet stormy will continue right through winter and im certain of this now.

Yeah going to be a typical 2000 winter, will have mini cold spells, but the usual christmas pudding model straw clutching deep FI charts, 2nd December looks snowy on GEFS control run, but a major FI chart

[Bristawl Si]

yep remember the winters in the 80s but im very sure now that a winter like 08/09 is very much not going to happen.

its amazing the hype thats now starting to dwindle away.

for the first time in years i now think joe b is very wrong infact i feel any talk of a colder winter was very much over hyped but for once the met office are going to get it spot on this year.

it would seem gw and el nino have destroyed any chance of anything cold.

and even talk of el nino becoming a mega event futher into 2010.

but still i said a little while ago that mild very mild wet stormy will continue right through winter and im certain of this now.

Hmm, interesting, bb.

Any 'evidence' that makes you so sure?

After all it's only November 18th

Plenty of time for change. Still in late Autumn by my own 'personal' calendar; winter is yet to come. Twists and turns to come i feel. Oh, and i've no 'evidence' either, but long way to go yet.

[LomondSnowstorm]

yep remember the winters in the 80s but im very sure now that a winter like 08/09 is very much not going to happen.

its amazing the hype thats now starting to dwindle away.

for the first time in years i now think joe b is very wrong infact i feel any talk of a colder winter was very much over hyped but for once the met office are going to get it spot on this year.

it would seem gw and el nino have destroyed any chance of anything cold.

and even talk of el nino becoming a mega event futher into 2010.

but still i said a little while ago that mild very mild wet stormy will continue right through winter and im certain of this now.

I agree that it's very unlikely to be a classic winter overall but, as many others on the forum have pointed out, there is potential for a memorably cold spell in January/February. The 'mega el nino' talk seems to be for 2011 and it does look like El Nino will weaken over the winter and into 2010, with the possibilty of a fairly neutral ENSO for next winter. No one is suggesting a much below average winter but even an around average winter would seem much colder given the mildness (albeit still with a few decent cold snaps) of the last few winters (excepting 08/09 of course!). As far as I can see, the factors involved in this winter are much more interesting than in other El Nino winters, with quite a few factors point to a less mild winter.

Edited November 18, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[MR EXTREMES]

Yeah going to be a typical 2000 winter, will have mini cold spells, but the usual christmas pudding model straw clutching deep FI charts, 2nd December looks snowy on GEFS control run, but a major FI chart

id take no notice of the fi charts or the cfs charts.

you also hit the nail on the head with typical 2000 winter.

its worth pointing out how any winters dominated by el nino have been poor and not just 1 month where talking about,

but through the entire winter.

theres was also lots of talk on jet shifting south this has also been against what people were or would like to happen from what ive seen its been doing what it was pre 08/09 and thats staying north,

this is also likely to continue with a mild very stormy winter on the cards.

so we have to give the met office credit where due also mr brown,

whether they would have been right if la nina had dominated then who knows but either way.

we have nothing to look foward to if you like the cold im also convinced solar activity has very little effect which is far from my throughts back in the summer.

last year was a minor blip and thease could happen again at some point but not this winter thats for sure.

Edited November 18, 2009 by badboy657

[I remember Atlantic 252]

id take no notice of the fi charts or the cfs charts.

you also hit the nail on the head with typical 2000 winter.

its worth pointing out how any winters dominated by el nino have been poor and not just 1 month where talking about,

but through the entire winter.

theres was also looks of talk on jet shifting south this has also been against what people where or would like to happen from what ive seen its been doing what it was pre 08/09 and thats staying north,

this is also likely to continue with a mild very stormy winter on the cards.

so we have to give the met office credit where due also mr brown,

whether they would have been right if la nina had dominated then who knows but either way.

we have nothing to look foward to if you like the cold im also convinced solar activity has very little effect which is far from my throughts back in the summer.

last year was a minor blip and thease could happen again at some point but not this winter thats for sure.

I dont even think last winter was good, another typical christmas pudding 2000's winter, yeah I had snow, but temps nothing llike as cold as the 90's and earlier, I also saw no snow after 9th Feb, always had some kind of snow after feb 9th, even in 2000's, but mind you that's only my area

[Geordiesnow]

so we have to give the met office credit where due also mr brown,

whether they would have been right if la nina had dominated then who knows but either way.

How can you give IB/MO credit before the winter has started! Just because you think it's going to be a mild winter does not mean you can credit them before the winter has started.

Your posts, with all due respect are at times misleading and confusing, one minute you are thinking it will be a cold winter but as soon as the charts don't show much in the way of cold, you are very negative.

I don't think this winter will be a cold one but that is still not going to stop me from looking at potential cold spells in the model output.

We shall see by the 1st March of whether the winter has been cold or not.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I dont even think last winter was good, another typical christmas pudding 2000's winter, yeah I had snow, but temps nothing llike as cold as the 90's and earlier, I also saw no snow after 9th Feb, always had some kind of snow after feb 9th, even in 2000's, but mind you that's only my area

I think 'late snow' has been a major feature of the 00s: the most snow we got in 07/08 was in March/April, while the 7 inches we got on the 12th March '06 was the largest accumulation of snow since, I reckon, 2000/01. Not to mention a pretty reasonable spell in Late February '05. I'd say last year was less typical of the 00s in the sense that late November, December, January and early February were all pretty cold.

[reef]

A whole bunch of posts have been removed. Attacks on members will not be tolerated.

Please keep this disussion on topic.

Thanks. :wacko:

[Mark Bayley]

I do agree though, i just ignore people writing off winter or crediting forecasts for being right when the period being forecast hasn't even started! Some good forecasts on the media forum. I recommend people go and read them if they already haven't!

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/12-weather-in-the-media-on-the-internet/

Edited November 18, 2009 by reef

[stewfox]

My winter prediction

Heating off, heating on ,heating off, heating on, heating off heating on.

Its too mild to wear a coat , I wish I had worn a coat its now freezing (+6c) or its now raining.

Lawn Mower away for the season and out again November 17th to mow grass one more time.

Train delays when there is 1mm of snow.

and people saying its not like the winters of the past