Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4

[ribster]

I think we could see some serious wet weather next month and some anomalous warmth in areas prone.

Really? And there was me thinking you were going to predict a whiteout!

[Backtrack]

I haven't forgotton. As we know, the christmas pudding appears to have begun in the late 1980s.

I think we could see some serious wet weather next month and some anomalous warmth in areas prone.

I disagree. I think two or three cold snaps are likely next month, and not the whole of the month will be wet.

[TEITS]

I think we could see some serious wet weather next month and some anomalous warmth in areas prone.

I do feel as though wind and rain will be dominant this winter with flooding in the headlines rather than snow. Obviously cooler spells are likely but I can't see these lasting more than 24/48hrs.

The excitement this winter following the models is more likely to come from deep atlantic low pressure systems rather than any significant cold spells.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I disagree. I think two or three cold snaps are likely next month, and not the whole of the month will be wet.

Of course it won't be wet all month. There'll be some cold and mild and wet and dry spells, like most months, but I doubt it'll be all that cold, at least not until late December. The CFS still persists with a slightly below average December though, still a lot of twists and turns in the outlook left before the end of this month, never mind next month! I still stick by my forecast for this winter though.

CW

[mcweather]

I,m not particularly concerned about the upcoming winter yet. Most of the seasonal forecasts that are going for cold and or snowy conditions to be in the ascendancy don't expect any thing to really get going to mid or late december at the earliest.

All we are experiencing at at the moment is typical November weather. Wet and Windy/stormy. November is after all the wettest month of the year on average. I know that is no comfort at all to those threatened by flooding in the borders.

[Glacier Point]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/

Snow cover has once again exceeded climatological norm, the largest contributions being over eastern Asia. Bearing in mind that this has come with the atmosphere in a Nina-like state which does not favour polar outbreaks.

As the centre for tropical forcing shifts eastwards, and the MJO and GWO add westerlies to the flow pattern, the atmosphere will be more conducive to large scale polar outbreaks over the next few weeks as waves are able to disrupt the jetsream. We should therefore start to see more significant additions to snow cover totals exceeding normal. If the current GFS AO Ensembles are anywhere near correct, further large scale additions will occur over North America and Siberia.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

Interestingly, the last time we saw similar increases in snowcover were during 2002 with a very similar November pattern into December

------------------------------------------------------------------

For those of you wondering about a strong Nino, ask yourself this. Why is it that a model that is clearly programming a high end moderate or strong Nino..

http://www.cpc.noaa....ino34SSTMon.gif

is even entertaining a pattern like this....

http://www.cpc.noaa..../glbz700Mon.gif

That is a shed load of high latitude blocking, a theme that has been consistently advertised for a long period now. The details of how much cold air drops into Russia during December into January is the only variable here.

Edited November 19, 2009 by Glacier Point

[LomondSnowstorm]

I,m not particularly concerned about the upcoming winter yet. Most of the seasonal forecasts that are going for cold and or snowy conditions to be in the ascendancy don't expect any thing to really get going to mid or late december at the earliest.

All we are experiencing at at the moment is typical November weather. Wet and Windy/stormy. November is after all the wettest month of the year on average. I know that is no comfort at all to those threatened by flooding in the borders.

No, it won't but even joe laminate floori went with a well above average early winter for western europe before a cold January and February.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I do feel as though wind and rain will be dominant this winter with flooding in the headlines rather than snow. Obviously cooler spells are likely but I can't see these lasting more than 24/48hrs.

The excitement this winter following the models is more likely to come from deep atlantic low pressure systems rather than any significant cold spells.

little excitement for me on the models then, just wanna see a few high pressure inversion spells

[Bristawl Si]

I do feel as though wind and rain will be dominant this winter with flooding in the headlines rather than snow. Obviously cooler spells are likely but I can't see these lasting more than 24/48hrs.

The excitement this winter following the models is more likely to come from deep atlantic low pressure systems rather than any significant cold spells.

TEITS, if you're 'throwing in the towel' at such an early stage of late autumn/early winter, things must be really bad!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

little excitement for me on the models then, just wanna see a few high pressure inversion spells

I didn't think things were that bad down south!

[damianslaw]

I don't believe that if the very mild unsettled conditions at present last through the first half of december automatically this means a mild rest of winter is on the cards.

I said in a thread some weeks back, 'westerly' type weather during the first half of december is the seasonal norm and nothing unusual, in fact its what I expect to see, very cold winters have been preceeded and often are preceeded by such weather, it is during mid-late dec when the true signs of what winter is likely to deliver begin to emerge.

[Eugene]

little excitement for me on the models then, just wanna see a few high pressure inversion spells

Yes me too that would be a nice change but of course even them some arent happy and moan how boring it is, the only thing that makes them happy is ice days and deep snow cover, move country is what i say, i never expect that in a british winter down in southern UK.

[Eugene]

It is true that 1987-88 was the start of the even larger teapot phase 1 era, and 1997 was the start of the christmas pudding phase 2 era.

And 2009/10 is the start of the even larger teapot phase 3 era

[MR EXTREMES]

I do feel as though wind and rain will be dominant this winter with flooding in the headlines rather than snow. Obviously cooler spells are likely but I can't see these lasting more than 24/48hrs.

The excitement this winter following the models is more likely to come from deep atlantic low pressure systems rather than any significant cold spells.

cant argue with that comment makes alot of sense to me.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think it is remarkable that anyone can make any definitive prediction about the months ahead atm. I know I can't!

There are a lot of factors that are very unclear atm - it is not simply a case of dominant el nino = mild wet (or mild dry) winter! There is a lot more to consider this winter than just el nino in isolation of everything else!

What will be , will be - but the situation is far less simplistic (to me anyway) that is being made out in many quarters.

Edited November 20, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[johnny1972]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/

Snow cover has once again exceeded climatological norm, the largest contributions being over eastern Asia. Bearing in mind that this has come with the atmosphere in a Nina-like state which does not favour polar outbreaks.

As the centre for tropical forcing shifts eastwards, and the MJO and GWO add westerlies to the flow pattern, the atmosphere will be more conducive to large scale polar outbreaks over the next few weeks as waves are able to disrupt the jetsream. We should therefore start to see more significant additions to snow cover totals exceeding normal. If the current GFS AO Ensembles are anywhere near correct, further large scale additions will occur over North America and Siberia.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

Interestingly, the last time we saw similar increases in snowcover were during 2002 with a very similar November pattern into December

------------------------------------------------------------------

For those of you wondering about a strong Nino, ask yourself this. Why is it that a model that is clearly programming a high end moderate or strong Nino..

http://www.cpc.noaa....ino34SSTMon.gif

is even entertaining a pattern like this....

http://www.cpc.noaa..../glbz700Mon.gif

That is a shed load of high latitude blocking, a theme that has been consistently advertised for a long period now. The details of how much cold air drops into Russia during December into January is the only variable here.

ALL

With the above post written by GP i am very surprised at some of the negative comments on here. Since this post not one person has passed comment on what GP has highlighted. Many have been highlighting for some time now blocking at higher lattitudes with cold to affect Europe and possibly our shores through winter. Granted November has been warmer than normal and very wet resulting in some on here believing this to be the shape of things to come for winter. November is an Autumn month. Autumn is the transitional season between summer and winter during which storms, mild, cold and benign conditions should all be expected and are nothing other than normal for the time of year.

I dont post often but read through the threads. And I have found the posts of the likes of GP, RJS/BFTP, Steve Murr and others (im sure ive forgotten a few of the big hitters but you get my point) very informative. To this end i fail to understand views of some who post winters over before it has even begun ! (many with no evidence to back their claims ) I dont accept this christmas pudding term at all and i think the posters that use it merely do so to wind others up who have differing views. I think it is accepted Ian Brown and some others use this term for their own reasons. It would be good if sensible discussion could take place re the upcoming winter and the "its over posts" and "christmas pudding posts" omitted. I doubt however this will happen !!

[mezzacyclone]

Is it "each to their own", "hopecasting","reverse psychology" & the like Johnny?

I guess the thread title itself sort of permits any kind of negative/positive comments from whatever point of view the poster wishes to put across?

It never disheartens me when reading should a post appear that purveys a view of something being over before its begun, (the winter period itself in this case) be it a personal point or general view, I sigh when I ask what I assume is a viable question yet no one never seems to respond? (but that must simply be due to my eccentricity :unsure:)

Despite a lot of communial "SACRA" spirit showing its annual presence I always favour fact over wishful thinking/fiction but when GP and co. provide fascinating posts it deserves respect,which i assume is what your putting across? be it by means of a small ditty/response from readers "per se" is their choice of course?

My point is that although I`m sure its been noted elsewhere? I must prioritize SST`s/lack of Hurricanes to juxtapose amongst the other whorde's of ingredients that contribute to what we will "gratefully receive" in the coming season? It maybe me but even maritime westerlies during October appeared to have had an "edge" to them? present conditions exempt `o course

(Jolly good to see a lot of the old names btw also I hasten to add)

[Duane S.]

ALL

With the above post written by GP i am very surprised at some of the negative comments on here. Since this post not one person has passed comment on what GP has highlighted. Many have been highlighting for some time now blocking at higher lattitudes with cold to affect Europe and possibly our shores through winter. Granted November has been warmer than normal and very wet resulting in some on here believing this to be the shape of things to come for winter. November is an Autumn month. Autumn is the transitional season between summer and winter during which storms, mild, cold and benign conditions should all be expected and are nothing other than normal for the time of year.

I dont post often but read through the threads. And I have found the posts of the likes of GP, RJS/BFTP, Steve Murr and others (im sure ive forgotten a few of the big hitters but you get my point) very informative. To this end i fail to understand views of some who post winters over before it has even begun ! (many with no evidence to back their claims ) I dont accept this christmas pudding term at all and i think the posters that use it merely do so to wind others up who have differing views. I think it is accepted Ian Brown and some others use this term for their own reasons. It would be good if sensible discussion could take place re the upcoming winter and the "its over posts" and "christmas pudding posts" omitted. I doubt however this will happen !!

Good post. However, I think it is pie in the sky to expect the perenial glass-half-empty posters to start being positive (it's the same every year ) or that Spin Doctor Ian Brown will be able to post something that does not contain the words 'modern' and 'era' (he is obviously going with the old 'throw enough of the brown stuff and some of it will stick' addage). Isn't it strange how he only pops up when we have Atlantic weather and warm anomolies to attempt to persuade us it is happening all the time (maybe the cold got to his fingers last winter?)

We've had a typical Autumn, warmer than average but that is the point of having averages, some have got to be warmer and nobody to my knowledge was predicting a blinding start to the winter so what we have is what was to be expected. It is not out of the question that this COULD continue for the majority of the winter (albeit with the odd cold interlude come mid-winter), not impossible and far from unprecedented either (despite what some will have you believe).

I think there is an increasing trend showing for a pattern change and some sort of blocking in the future. This may well not bring about a cold snap for us but I think that by this time next week the charts are going to be showing a different scenario than the one they have predominately been showing us during November.

I don't expect (and never did) this winter to be a classic I am just looking forward to the rollercoaster rides that will inevitably occur once winter proper gets up and going.

[Weather-history]

Odds on now this look like being the wettest November since 2002 for England and Wales. Not had a very wet November since then.

[Snowyowl9]

Odds on now this look like being the wettest November since 2002 for England and Wales. Not had a very wet November since then.

It`s already wetter than november 2002 here by just under 1 inch.

The last november that gave no air frost,just 1 ground frost.

[TEITS]

I agree IB going on about "christmas pudding" and his obsession with mild is rather irritating. However when you consider I joined this forum in Oct 04 and so far all I have to show for this is 2 decent cold spells (see links below) then thats rather poor!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120051228.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090205.gif

Probably the best cold spell synoptically speaking was Feb 05 but the combination of this being so late in the season combined with Europe being mild made this a weak affair.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050225.gif

So before we bash IB you have to admit that in some respects he does have a point. Im still waiting to see a classic cold spell, which when you consider I joined 5yrs ago is rather staggering. I cannot put this blame down to bad luck anymore!

[stewfox]

I dont post often but read through the threads. And I have found the posts of the likes of GP, RJS/BFTP, Steve Murr and others (im sure ive forgotten a few of the big hitters but you get my point) very informative. To this end i fail to understand views of some who post winters over before it has even begun ! (many with no evidence to back their claims ) I dont accept this christmas pudding term at all and i think the posters that use it merely do so to wind others up who have differing views. I think it is accepted Ian Brown and some others use this term for their own reasons. It would be good if sensible discussion could take place re the upcoming winter and the "its over posts" and "christmas pudding posts" omitted. I doubt however this will happen !!

Their posts are informative but they can be as far off as anyone else (wasnt the third week of November meant to be dry with high pressure ?). Perhaps this leads to pent up frustration.

Lets face it in the 1980s Jo Punter had a 2/3 day max forecast on page 2 of the Daily Express to go on. Not a chart for T384 !

'Its over', 'even larger teapot' are iterating terms but like 'global warming' they will soon be assigned to the scrap heap.

Come the next prolonged cold snap this year , it will become 'maybe over" and the "christmas pudding excluding 2008/9 and 2009/10". etc Eventually these terms will go like Global warming.

Last year where I live ,we had snow in October, November ,December, January and February with 12 days of lying snow. And yet you will get ah but the CET was only 3c in Jan. I can go back to the early 70s and for me last year 'even larger teapot' was a top 5 for snow.

Some people will always moan.

[Iceni]

I agree IB going on about "christmas pudding" and his obsession with mild is rather irritating. However when you consider I joined this forum in Oct 04 and so far all I have to show for this is 2 decent cold spells (see links below) then thats rather poor!!

http://www.wetterzen...00120051228.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00120090205.gif

Probably the best cold spell synoptically speaking was Feb 05 but the combination of this being so late in the season combined with Europe being mild made this a weak affair.

http://www.wetterzen...00120050225.gif

So before we bash IB you have to admit that in some respects he does have a point. Im still waiting to see a classic cold spell, which when you consider I joined 5yrs ago is rather staggering. I cannot put this blame down to bad luck anymore!

I totally agree. When I think of Novembers of my childhood (going back more years than I'd admit to here) the past decade have been pathetic — and yes, I include last November amongst them — when we got stormy weather it was colder stormy weather and when it was clear there'd always be a ground frost and/or fog. I'd be into jumpers and coats by the middle of October every year, whereas this year it's been a T-shirt and light mac.

Edited November 20, 2009 by Iceni

[ThunderStorms]

I do not believe in modern ages, but even if you believe what makes you say that every year now have temperatures always above average.

Nothing, absolutely nothing ... but I'm no expert like you and sorry to tell you, but they are too concentrated with El Nino and La Nina!

The influence of El Nino in Europe is still quite fuzzy, and I believe the pattern that dominates over here in Europe are the SSTs, which currently has a strong anomaly in the middle of the Atlantic and positive chain of Canary!

For Portugal when this happens often result in above average rainfall and is usually associated with a negative NAO!

Obviously everything is connected in ocean atmosphere but I think the most important here is the SSTs.

But I think in the next 4 weeks here in the south of Portugal is still not very rainy and the United Kingdom will be more rain before entering a drier in January, and colder!

I believe in a negative NAO much more pronounced in the second half of December with a Jet Southwest to the Mediterranean!

I hope I'm not wrong because we are in the south of Portugal with many problems with drought!

What do you think about this ... it is just a theory !!

G. P. ??

Edited November 20, 2009 by ThunderStorms

[cyclonic happiness]

Is it "each to their own", "hopecasting","reverse psychology" & the like Johnny?

I guess the thread title itself sort of permits any kind of negative/positive comments from whatever point of view the poster wishes to put across?

It never disheartens me when reading should a post appear that purveys a view of something being over before its begun, (the winter period itself in this case) be it a personal point or general view, I sigh when I ask what I assume is a viable question yet no one never seems to respond? (but that must simply be due to my eccentricity :winky:)

Despite a lot of communial "SACRA" spirit showing its annual presence I always favour fact over wishful thinking/fiction but when GP and co. provide fascinating posts it deserves respect,which i assume is what your putting across? be it by means of a small ditty/response from readers "per se" is their choice of course?

My point is that although I`m sure its been noted elsewhere? I must prioritize SST`s/lack of Hurricanes to juxtapose amongst the other whorde's of ingredients that contribute to what we will "gratefully receive" in the coming season? It maybe me but even maritime westerlies during October appeared to have had an "edge" to them? present conditions exempt `o course

(Jolly good to see a lot of the old names btw also I hasten to add)

I know this is off topic...but....who is that laughing bloke in your avatar mezzocyclone? and, where can i get one? :blush: