Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4

[LomondSnowstorm]

The latest CFS run (Sat 00z) is a big improvement on the last time I checked. Several notable cold snaps/spells, including potent northerlies and easterlies. The cold pattern extends well into April. The chart below for early Jan which I hope the mods won't mind be posting, shows just how full of potential this coming winter truly is:

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Saw an interesting one a few days ago predicting the 528 line south of Scotland for the whole of March!

Now that would be impressive!

[Bristawl Si]

I've commented on a couple of occasions in the last week that i thought this was the wettest November in years here in Bristol, and it's good to know my memory is not playing tricks

Nov 2009 has been Bristol's wettest November since 1940 according to our local weather guys this evening.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The latest CFS run (Sat 00z) is a big improvement on the last time I checked. Several notable cold snaps/spells, including potent northerlies and easterlies. The cold pattern extends well into April. The chart below for early Jan which I hope the mods won't mind be posting, shows just how full of potential this coming winter truly is:

Stop drooling and Subscribe to Netweather Extra here for more.

Looks reasonable to me

BFTP

[osmposm]

Whoa! 10th wettest November since records began. And climate change experts warn we can expect more like this as the effects of climate change become more pronounced, yada, yada, yada, etc, etc, yawn.

You seem to be the only one bringing it up here, Paul, and we're the ones who are yawning. If you want to have an all-purpose moan about Climate Change experts, could you do it in the Climate Change area? Thanks. :smiliz19:

[Weather-history]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

182 ~ up to 29th November

Wettest months ever recorded for England and Wales

218.1 Oct 1903

202.5 Nov 1852

200.8 Nov 1770

196.5 Nov 1940

195.9 Nov 1929

193.9 Dec 1876

192.9 Aug 1912

192.1 Aug 1799

190.8 Dec 1914

189.5 Sep 1918

188.0 Oct 2000

186.8 Sep 1799

185.6 Dec 1868

185.4 Sep 1797

184.9 Dec 1915

183.5 Dec 1934

182.6 Jul 1828

182.1 Nov 2000

182 ~~Nov 2009 up to 29th

Edited December 1, 2009 by Mr_Data

[osmposm]

Wettest Novembers on record for England and Wales

202.5 1852

200.8 1770

196.5 1940

195.9 1929

182.1 2000

182 ~ up to 29th November

In a pattern-seeking mood, is it perhaps significant that all the top four in that list were followed by, or had been preceded by (or both) an unusually cold winter month?

Feb 1853 CET 0.6

Jan 1771 CET 1.0; Mar 1770 2.5

Jan 1941 CET 0.5; Jan 1940 -1.4

Jan 1929 CET 1.3; Feb 1929 0.4

It's stretching things slightly to try and squeeze in the winters that followed Nov 1929 & Nov 2000, but each at least had a month decently below the mean - Feb 1930 (2.5) & Jan 2001 (3.2).

All in all, from those top 5, you can say that all were followed by winters with a cold - and often exceptionally cold - month.

Extending it to the top 20 (before 2009), most winters play ball with that hypothesis - but not those following the wet Novembers of 1970, 2002, 1926 (and possibly 1772 & 1836 - I don't know the means at the time).

Which you could say (if you were feeling optimistic) means that we have a 75% - 85% chance of at least one cold, or very cold month this winter! :lol:

Edited December 1, 2009 by osmposm

[johnholmes]

impressive Os-you never know, although I'm well known for not believing overmuch in patterns etc

you can point out how wrong I was, perhaps (!), in the spring of 2010?

[kold weather]

If you think about it does make some sense, to get rainfall figures that high you tend to need a fairly southerly flowing jet stream and obviously if you carry that into the winter period then if you get northern blocking you've got the set-up there for a very lengthy cold spell. Of course doesn't always work like that but its an interesting link I suppose.

[johnholmes]

hard to disagree with your summary KW of the conditions that may have occurred in those months/years that Os has given

[stewfox]

In a pattern-seeking mood, is it perhaps significant that all the top four in that list were followed by, or had been preceded by (or both) an unusually cold winter month?

Feb 1853 CET 0.6

Jan 1771 CET 1.0; Mar 1770 2.5

Jan 1941 CET 0.5; Jan 1940 -1.4

Jan 1929 CET 1.3; Feb 1929 0.4

Which you could say (if you were feeling optimistic) means that we have a 75% - 85% chance of at least one cold, or very cold month this winter!

I sure there would be some 'meteorological' reasons for some identified patterns but clearly not for all.

Its interesting however two common numbers comes up in your analysis's .......the numbers 2 and 9 they come up no less then 9 times!

What is this year 2009?? So who knows?

Edited December 1, 2009 by stewfox

[osmposm]

Its interesting however two common numbers comes up in your analysis's .......the numbers 2 and 9 they come up no less then 9 times!

What is this year 2009?? So who knows?

Bit confused by that, Stew. Where are the nine two's & nine's?

In the top 20 wet Novembers before 2009 (see Kevin's list here ) there seem to be six years ending in '2' or '9'. 2009 will make it seven in the top 20, which is somewhat more than you'd expect by chance (4), but I'm sure not significantly so (in statistical terms) over such a small sample.

[chionomaniac]

Snow cover results are in for October for the NH. From being ranked 34th out of 41 for September with a negative anomaly of 1020 thousand sq miles, we now after October are ranked 6th with a positive anomaly of 2822 thousand sq miles. What a turnaround in a month.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/nhem-1mo-loop.html

I don't think the UK will be adding to that figure in the next few days though!

c

And November's snow cover details.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1#eurasia

We are still above average which is good. Eurasion snow cover is well above average.

[Polar Gael]

Wettest November on record for the UK, according to the Met Office.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8389471.stm

[VillagePlank]

For those interested in similar years ...

Here's a simple analysis of similar years to 2009 comparing the first 11 months of the year to the first 11 months of every year in the CET and deriving a correlation score and sorting, descending, by that.

The average following winter temperature is 4.06^oC for all years, but accounting for 20th century only, the following winter temperature is 4.5^oC which is more or less spot on the preceding 30 year average of 4.53^oC

Correlation technique is Pearson's Product Moment Coefficient Winter is defined as starting in year shown and including December of that year and January and February of the succeeding year.

Not sure it means much, just for interest.

Edited December 2, 2009 by VillagePlank

[SteveB]

Mr Data, do we have a final rainfall total for November?.

[Weather-history]

Mr Data, do we have a final rainfall total for November?.

At the moment, its about 183mm but the data has to go through the quality control wash so to speak, usually around the 5th the final figure comes out.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Mr Data, do we have a final rainfall total for November?.

The Met Office has said last month was the wettest November on record, with an average of 217.4mm (8.6in) of rain across the UK.

Like Kev says though quality control to come

BFTP

[SteveB]

At the moment, its about 183mm but the data has to go through the quality control wash so to speak, usually around the 5th the final figure comes out.

Ok, Thanks

[Summer of 95]

It's amazing how high the EW and UK figures are, given that so much of eastern England had less than 100mm which wasn't the case in eg June/July 2007. The totals in the NW must have been astronomical to push the overall average up to 180+. Just looked at climate-uk and Philip Eden says it was the second most cyclonic month ever (after February 1990, beating all the autumn 2000 months)- that really does show it up as an extreme month IMO, I can hardly remember a month so devoid of even brief spells of high pressure; even Feb 1990 I remember had a warm sunny spell towards the end.

[kold weather]

Yep the Uk trough has been dominant, and been beefed up by a mod-strong El nino event as well which has really pumped up those rainfall figures thanks to a southerly jet. Impressive.

El Nino seems to be really impacting the Atlantic right now, the jet is really powerful and thats reflected with 940-960mbs lows frequantly blowing through, probably will be the story of most of December I suspect now, I'm starting to get really concerned that we are heading towards a bog standard mild El nino winter now...

[Neilsouth]

Dad just said to me " we are going to have a real blast of winter this year , just seen a mass flock of birds *Curlew* in our kent fields ". He's never seen them here before!. He also dismisses a snowy winter every year lol so this was a first

Bookmarked this post!

Edited December 2, 2009 by neilsouth

[LomondSnowstorm]

Another exceptionally cold raw CFS today, with a bitter cold spell from Christmas to the middle of January, another, less prolonged spell in mid-February and the 528 line south of the UK for 20 days during March. It even flirts with the UK into May! Far too long range and transient for it to be accurate but there is a trend of very cold mid-January and March in particular!

[Lightningboy]

Ssorry if this is a silly question what date does winter officially start, is just December the 1st or is it further on in December?

Anyway heres hoping for colder winter with some snow

Edited December 2, 2009 by Lightningboy

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ssorry if this is a silly question what date does winter officially start, is just December the 1st or is it further on in December?

Anyway heres hoping for colder winter with some snow

1st Dec winter starts

[Lightningboy]

1st Dec winter starts

Ahhh thankyou