General Cold Spell Discussion

[weatherobsuk]

The Accumulated Snow-Depth on Snow-forecast.com for the next 4-6 days.

[Reading FC]

looks like my praying for no snow on the 17th around here is working! Thank you GOD!!!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Still have a dusting of this morning's snow on the ground, with the temperature only up to 0.8º.

[Nick L]

Yea this is exciting. Coming from the South ... and then turning to rain ... typical winter for us then! Enjoy it for the hour or so you might see it. If it doesn't come in the dead of night when you are asleep and you just wake up to rain lol.

Unfortunately it will probably be a typical northerly for the vast majority of us. And for central areas that isn't good!

[andy_leics22]

Serendipity.. That is true :huh: In this situation though it looks on the wrong side of borderline for tomorrow, i'd expect places over 200m in the Midlands to see some snow on the ground tomorrow but any lower levels... I reckon a mix of rain/sleet/wet snow that won't settle.

As for Wednesday... Hmmm looks to be the same situation as tomorrow, that stupid warm sector is spoiling everything, we have the PPN for the Midlands but the air simply isn't cold enough.

We might get a little surprise, it depends on how high temps reach tomorrow and Wednesday for the Midlands that will determine whether it's rain/sleet or wet snow.

[kold weather]

Yeah probably suggesting a cyclonic NW airflow, what needs to be watched as I said before is whether the whole cyclonic system comes southwards or does it set up shop over Scandinavia, though if that happens then the NW would get quite a lot of snow showers thats for sure. The ECM 144hrs shows what I mean:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Ver good agreement at the moment for it as well on the models so I'd be patient in the NW because your time will come.

As for further south, the key here after the easterly is we must have the whole lot come southwards, otherwise a cold and fairly dry flow would be probable after the easterly, however from previous experience, there is bound to be a secondary depression trying to develop and if it does then the whole country becomes at a far more significant risk of snow.

Right now though we have tonight/tomorrow morning to keep a very close eye on...

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Serendipity.. That is true In this situation though it looks on the wrong side of borderline for tomorrow, i'd expect places over 200m in the Midlands to see some snow on the ground tomorrow but any lower levels... I reckon a mix of rain/sleet/wet snow that won't settle.

As for Wednesday... Hmmm looks to be the same situation as tomorrow, that stupid warm sector is spoiling everything, we have the PPN for the Midlands but the air simply isn't cold enough.

We might get a little surprise, it depends on how high temps reach tomorrow and Wednesday for the Midlands that will determine whether it's rain/sleet or wet snow.

Andy it looks ok for Fri for you i think.After that the Northerly sets in,or is North westerly?

As you say tue/wed really is borederline though,elevation will help i think mate

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Well with the easterly at the end of the week which should be good for south eastern areas and east Anglia, followed by a northerly and north westerly which should be good for most northern and western areas, it seems quite possible that a large part of the UK will see snow at some time or other over the coming 10 days or more.

The latest update is quite good for the south east still in that, although the forecast period covers from Saturday when the northerly is about to occur and the snow risk has diminished here - any snow that has fallen in the previous 48 hrs has a good chance of hanging around with some hard frosts and temps remaining cold. Furthermore, as the forecasts suggests - more snow might occur later anyway as the wintry ppn further north edges south.

Much better than yesterday when a milder breakdown was suggested from the opposite direction - from the south And xmas itself may stay cold too

Edited December 14, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[SP1986]

Suggests a NWly flow to me.

which in turn suggests a nice warming sea breeze to me

[Serendipity]

Very true Andy - it's too warm here at present to even be borderline, 4.7 and 4.4 dp.

I meant later in the week really, I think Tues/Weds will be a non event.

[TonyH]

Cold and dull here today, not above 3c yet. Sleety drizzle just now.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

which in turn suggests a nice warming sea breeze to me

TBH ste i didnt have you down for anything from this so at least you have a chance from a NW wind which is what the

meto are going for at the weekend.

As you say though,the same rules aplly in the west as they do in the East.From a purely selfish point of view

i should be more than ok with nearly 700ft and 40 miles away from the coast.

[kold weather]

Unfortunately it will probably be a typical northerly for the vast majority of us. And for central areas that isn't good!

Maybe but worth wathcing for the exacts of the set-up, as I said before if we get the upper low far enough south-west then we wil lbe in a broadly cyclonic airflow and I'm willing to bet any money there would be several disturbances in the flow. The biggest worry in that regard is the factthe ECM keeps the upper low a little further away and we are on the fringes...even then though there appears to be a shortwave come down from the NW over England between 144-168hrs, something that is also picked up by other models.

Anyway Thursday-Friday is still looking messy, looks like a few areas of interest but right now I'm still not too confident with prediciting what is going to happen, I'm pretty confident there'd be a decent amount of precip about its just a matter of where.

[James M]

hmmm...something to look out for then, I'm still going to not expect anything though, that way I might be pleasantly surprised.

[stewfox]

Indeed, I hope those moaning Scots from a few days ago are now happy, they will get pasted. They always get everything!

Not a football team ?

Anyway the real cold seems to remain in FI, time will tell

[andy_leics22]

Very true Andy - it's too warm here at present to even be borderline, 4.7 and 4.4 dp.

I meant later in the week really, I think Tues/Weds will be a non event.

Ahh, yes later in the week the air is cold enough but then it comes down to where the PPN is.. At present it looks like there won't be much in the Midlands at all. Then for the Northerly that comes down after that... Well Northerlys are usually rubbish for the Midlands.

Andy it looks ok for Fri for you i think.After that the Northerly sets in,or is North westerly?

As you say tue/wed really is borederline though,elevation will help i think mate

Possibly, the Northerly though... If you live in the Midlands and it's not a Northerly that brings a front of snow with it then you can forget about it Northerlys for the Midlands are usually tosh. North Westerlys are better but unless theres showers coming in through the Cheshire Gap then they aren't great either.

[Interitus]

I think the breakdown being progged is plausible, but that is a long way off, but models showing deep LPs attacking the UK in deep FI is IMO and method plausible as I believe a 7-10 dfay event is likely [but it could lock in].. The GFS after the euro HP blip sends LPs on a southerly track again. ECM has LPs attacking from the SW....this IMO even if it happens is not of concern because that shouts a reload of cold after an unsettled spell.

BFTP

Not being funny, but isn't mild spells interspersed with cold just the norm for winter?

I.e. there is nothing to suggest that a return to milder weather (which I believe will come by Xmas day) will be prolonged but likewise nor would a 'cold reload'.

[jimben]

You all yearn for the winters that we had back in the 60's and 70's and this present set up is starting just as they did, not a great deal happening, weather forecasts suggesting sleet at best away from the hills and then wham polar lows, stalling fronts, etc etc all came out of nowhere. Patience mon braves.

[bluearmy]

jay wynne's update on bbc site + the meto update are interesting. they both talk of settled weather under high heights in the south next week with the snowy conditions spreading slowly south. can only assume that the ens show a fair old spread with the mean showing the ridge from greeny holding firm and the scandi trough making very slow inroads southwards. that would indicate that there is little pressure form the atlantic through next week although they do refer to milder conditions possible after boxing day from the south. i guess if there is a scatter,(as nick s said there is on the ecm ens), they feel that they have to go with the mean rather than the op/control or indeed, their own model at T144.

[azores92]

i think some on here are getting too carried away with the weather for the week ahead too much. why worry about the possibility of warm sectors/shortwaves? why do we feel the need to get worked up by what the weather might be like in the coming days. lets be honest folks, its rare to see temperatures like the ones forecast in this day and age, especially so in december. so what if it snows or not? its not going to change anything, just to see some wintriness would be nice. it never looked that likely anyway imho. to get snow is a treat in this country. we have been too spoilt by recent projections, and because things look reasonably good in the outlook, it seems like a fair few are looking at the glass half empty approach, and looking for the end of the cold spell. lets sit back, relax, and take whatever comes our way, and not get too upset if snow doesnt fall. its the beauty of the british isles, to be surprised on occasions, disappointed frequently

[Iceaxecrampon]

Remember being out in this 20yrs ago this week (Blencathra - Nr Keswick) Sorry for being "Retro - Archive" thought it might provoke interest.

[jimben]

Remember being out in this 20yrs ago this week (Blencathra - Nr Keswick) Sorry for being "Retro - Archive" thought it might provoke interest.

Remember it well and a good point that if you really want to experience weather at it's finest get out in to the hills

[Marcus_surfer]

Am i right in saying there is a risk of a low pushing up from the south later on in the week? Bringing a risk of snow to southern counties?

[snowmackem]

Hi all, long time since I last posted on here, but now can't resist it.

I was listening to Five Live earlier, John Hammond was giving the forecast. The discussion afterwards involved the possibility of a white Xmas.

Mr. Hammond said "Without giving too much away, people in the know ( i,e, Meto workers? or himself?) have been to the bookies while bets are still on" !

Read into that what you will !!

[V for Very Cold]

Hi all, long time since I last posted on here, but now can't resist it.

I was listening to Five Live earlier, John Hammond was giving the forecast. The discussion afterwards involved the possibility of a white Xmas.

Mr. Hammond said "Without giving too much away, people in the know ( i,e, Meto workers? or himself?) have been to the bookies while bets are still on" !

Read into that what you will !!

lets hope they are better meterologists than they are gamblers