General Cold Spell Discussion

[Optimus Prime]

John if I get the 28 inches of snow promised for county durham, or even half of that, I will eat all of the biscuits in the house, yes every last one of them.

If I get 4 inches predicted by John I'll stick my self in the dishwasher and run it on cool cycle.

Maybe he meant cms?

[Blackjack]

Hi to all,

This is my very first post. I'm fairly obsessed by the weather like most people on here although i have no background or understanding of 'runs' 'parallel runs' '12z' and many more mystical terms. I rely more on my bog standard weather station for the weather in the coming hour or so and natural signs for prediction further in the future.

I have been reading the boards for the last week and was wondering what if anything is so special about the current conditions?

I can't remember in my life time a significant snowfall in Dec. I'm 33.

If we do have one in '09

1) Is is that much out of the ordinary

2) Does it tell us much about the coming winter

3) Is there the slightest hint that we may be in for a '47 '63 event?

Slightly of topic. Is there a forum or discussion for natural signs of predicting the weather and old sayings?

ie March comes in like a Lion goes out like a Lamb / Owls hunting in daylight hours mean cold.harsh weather in future

[ademlc69]

I take the BBC weather forecast now with a pinch of salt don't think they even mentioned the word SNOW until yesterday and there was no chance of snow on the south coast,well what was that white stuff falling out of the sky last night then?yes it snowed in Southampton and as far west as Swindon so I cant understand where this mild air is coming from then,there is no battleground at the moment the wind is coming from a cold direction so its COLD.

Now I don't know a lot about how the models work but as far as I can see and judging by a lot of posts on here the models seem to be suggesting a prolonged cold period right through Christmas and into the new year, in fact I looked on Metcheck and they are saying temps more or less below freezing for the next 14 days and I know that some of the experts on here have been suggesting this cold right from the end of November,and the post in particular THE EYE IN THE SKY who was confident of an easterly and here it is. Good call mate,but maybe,just maybe this will be a winter that will be talked about for years to come.

[Hammer]

Lots of posts here now are saying the 'snow for the east', 'rain for southern coasts','temps of 2-6'.

Not what the models were showing last week.

How can we say this is a cold spell?

No cold yet, and very marginal so people say.

The models can never be trusted.

Well why visit the model discussion thread if they can never be trusted, surely those that want to discuss the models are because they are looking for guidance and some trending possibilites rather than 100% accuracy. Your suggesting its not cold, despite temps still below freezing in some areas.

Maybe you need a new hobby.

[Eugene]

Some people obviously don't look at charts as they would see why the snow will turn to rain today even the south as the continental air is pushed southwards, there will be another push of continental air for more people from the northeast for early tomorrow onwards.

[Eugene]

Lovely frosty morning here, cloud thickening now but...been far too much whingeing across the threads generally, doing my head in. Still early days in the cold spell and looks like it may last in to Christmas and maybe beyond

I mean what more do people want? A Bartlett? at least its seasonal which is more than what we usually get and there is potential for a lot of places still to see something

Yes it's doing my head in too seeing endless whingeing posts everywhere, 4C is cold for december anyway and below average, people forget the average max is 7C for december, to me it feels very cold and to most people out in thick coats, scarves and gloves, very seasonal for the christmas shoppers

Edited December 16, 2009 by Eugene

[Thundery wintry showers]

What, people are whining about this damp squib that is affecting most southern areas? I always felt it was the wrong side of marginal, and was very surprised when it started off as sleety snow in Norwich and even temporarily covered the ground. After all there has been no full-blown easterly so far, just a slight drift of cold air off the continent into the southeast.

By all means if come Friday morning most south-eastern areas are seeing rain and sleet showers, then have a moan. But I don't think it looks particularly likely except on the most exposed of coastal fringes.

[Nights King]

What, people are whining about this damp squib that is affecting most southern areas? I always felt it was the wrong side of marginal, and was very surprised when it started off as sleety snow in Norwich and even temporarily covered the ground. After all there has been no full-blown easterly so far, just a slight drift of cold air off the continent into the southeast.

By all means if come Friday morning most south-eastern areas are seeing rain and sleet showers, then have a moan. But I don't think it looks particularly likely except on the most exposed of coastal fringes.

I wouldnt be complaining if i lived in south east! they are going to get a pasting over next few days with central areas also getting a covering. Spare a thought for those of us that live in west country and south and west wales!

I personaly am looking forward to some dry weather over the next 2-3 days all we seem to get is rain and murk since october. Then just maybe we could get a chanel low or something to give us some of the action sunday/monday/tue?

[Lynxus]

LOL, Its warming up here.

Was 4c then 3c now its 5c.

Theres clouds coming in from the west.. THE WEST.

What is going on over here in gloucester.

Very odd.

Id be happy with some clear skies and cold air.

[Snowyowl9]

Tommorows maxes will be 2 or 3c lower than current temps of 4c here and I`ll be glad of the 2nd air frost of the season aswell,and see the ground dry up,snow showers maybe tomorrow this far west,looks like an upgrade on the fax

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2417.png

Theres going to be gales and blizzards in the SE too,XC showing mean windspeeds of 37mph blizzards.

They won`t know what`ll hit them.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn241.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0.gif

[I remember Atlantic 252]

LOL, Its warming up here.

Was 4c then 3c now its 5c.

Theres clouds coming in from the west.. THE WEST.

What is going on over here in gloucester.

Very odd.

Id be happy with some clear skies and cold air.

same here mildish day really 5.5C still 5.0C now, mild for a december evening, yeah clouds moving in from west earlier

[Ben_Cambs]

Parts of EA and the SE are forecasted up to 8 inches(20cm) of snow with disruption likely, The weekend could bring more snow on a wider scale as a northerly takes charge

[Spurry]

Yesterdays 18z GFS was the best run i'd seen all year , i went to bed happy and dreaming of the winter wonderland that awaited, however once again all hope was cruely snatched from me today, the 06z and 12z were dissapointing but still gave some hope, however watching the BBC it seems that they are toatlly ignoring the GFS and going for a dry sunny and cold few days here...i'm praying that the 18z delivers and at least gives me a glimmer of hope

[The Enforcer]

I am struggling to understand how in the light of this:

the metoffice are forecasting this:

"Becoming drier on Saturday and Sunday with occasional showers of sleet and snow in northern and western parts. Staying cold, windy at times."

[andy_leics22]

I am struggling to understand how in the light of this:

the metoffice are forecasting this:

"Becoming drier on Saturday and Sunday with occasional showers of sleet and snow in northern and western parts. Staying cold, windy at times."

Looks like a case of severe NO as The PIT would put it.

[damianslaw]

Yesterdays 18z GFS was the best run i'd seen all year , i went to bed happy and dreaming of the winter wonderland that awaited, however once again all hope was cruely snatched from me today, the 06z and 12z were dissapointing but still gave some hope, however watching the BBC it seems that they are toatlly ignoring the GFS and going for a dry sunny and cold few days here...i'm praying that the 18z delivers and at least gives me a glimmer of hope

With respect to the BBC forecast we have just recieved a stunner from Rob McCelwee who could hardly contain his excitement at the end with regards the snow potential for the coming days.

The BBC showed two troughs in the arctic air once of Saturday likely to give snow for the north away from western coastal areas and then another on Sunday, he then said something about Monday with a knowing wink - up until the 10.30 forecast the BBC were certainly not mentioning much snow potential for the weekend, however, they are now and watch those white blobs appearing all over the north soon enough. It was a great forecast so pleased Rob did it.. a bit of a classic really..

[LostInABlizzard]

Not sure if this is the right thread for my location as I haven't posted on here before, however as it seems to be the one with not much happening I'm assuming i'm in the right place. Just wanted to say to you all that on the Netweather Extra radar there is a mass of snow just heading south west as we speak - has anyone got any snow as a result of it?

Fiona

[Coast]

Snow UK: how Ben Marsh is using Twitter to create data

Getting followers to tweet the snow in their postcodes is providing a unique snow map of Britain. Ben Marsh's snow.uk users Twitter tweets to create the ultimate snow map of Britain

It's a simple idea - but a lovely one. Get users to tweet the first half of their postcode, and rate the snow falling out of ten (0/10 for nothing, 5/10 for steady snow and 10/10 for arctic blizzard conditions). The result is developer Ben Marsh's live snow map of the UK - #uksnow. And as snow falls across the UK today it gives us a lovely picture of where it's heaviest.

"The map is a update of a version I put together last February for the snow we had then says Ben, who also created hukholsmap.com/ and realtimetop40.com "It all came about after people started posting uksnow reports on twitter with their postcode and a score for how heavy the snowfall was. I built the map to visualise the tweets as they were reported. I've made a few updates to the original map and relaunched this version yesterday, hopefully in time for the incoming snow!"

You can follow the tweets here

www.guardian.co.uk

[Evo]

Looking at the UMNO-NAE meso output, it's fair to say that Kent has some potential for tonight. From an IMBY point of view I'm looking at an area of possible disruption around for M4/A34 area. There looks to be a line of precipitation from the wash down towards Salisbury. The first real precipitation moves in tonight and then carries on overnight. Could be interesting...

You can see that the flow of upper cold pool aligns with the showers:

The ouput has rendered it as rain but I think it's very likely to be of snow:

Potential for visibility to drop below 8ks

Temps likely to below freezing:

Pricipitation accumulation indicates the potential for some disruption. Some impressive totals in the far SE:

Lastly, predicted snow depth by the end of tomorrow:

[Paul]

Michael Fish's latest forecast is now online

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

[Nick.F]

Cheers think i might see if I can hire my own gritter

Weird, that wasn't what or where I was quoteing - please delete

Edited December 17, 2009 by Nick.F

[fromey]

not much happening on the models today then or have they been resricted due to server issues

[LomondSnowstorm]

Got a totally unforecasted 7cm of snow today - Carol went for light rain showers around an hour before it started snowing!! Yet another Met Office mishap in forecasting snow in eastern central Scotland after their total failure on the 2nd February this year. Still going though and Met Office are now predicting more tonight so I'm not complaining!!

LS

[wellington boot]

Looking at the UMNO-NAE meso output, it's fair to say that Kent has some potential for tonight. From an IMBY point of view I'm looking at an area of possible disruption around for M4/A34 area. There looks to be a line of precipitation from the wash down towards Salisbury. The first real precipitation moves in tonight and then carries on overnight. Could be interesting...

You can see that the flow of upper cold pool aligns with the showers:

The ouput has rendered it as rain but I think it's very likely to be of snow:

Potential for visibility to drop below 8ks

Temps likely to below freezing:

Pricipitation accumulation indicates the potential for some disruption. Some impressive totals in the far SE:

Lastly, predicted snow depth by the end of tomorrow:

Wow I hope that snow cover map comes off. I would be slap bang in the middle of the blob in the far south east. right on the the purple blob.

[chionomaniac]

It's so good to see these NH snowcover charts. How often do we see almost all of the UK covered. This also reminds me of earlier autumn discussions about the relevance of early Eurasion snowcover in helping us achieve something further down the line. Perhaps it has helped.

c