Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Bolton67]

Why can't the Met Office be consistent with their forecasts? They were updated within 20 minutes of each other!

They still have the East Midlands down for severe weather warning.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/em/em_forecast_warnings.html

Edited December 16, 2009 by Lancs_Northants

[snowmadchrisuk]

At the end of the day Temps will be well cold enough Tomorrow Afternoon across the Midlands, we also have to take into account confection given the unstable flow. It is all gonna be down to radar watch.

[cyclonic happiness]

At the end of the day Temps will be well cold enough Tomorrow Afternoon across the Midlands, we also have to take into account confection given the unstable flow. It is all gonna be down to radar watch.

that's what i keep saying, it's like in the summer when we keep getting asked where are the thunderstorms gonna be?

My bet is that there WILL be troughs and disturbances in the flow that will penatrate much further across us.

From what I can remember, most showers from this sort of setup get at least as far as Coventry and maybe even Brum, the lack of commitment by all forecasters should been seen as encouraging. <_<

[ANYWEATHER]

Two of the most difficult forecasts are trying to predict thunderstorms and "SNOW" !!I think the Midlands best chance is over the weekend when that cold front drops down and perhaps gives us some frontal snow for a time [backedge] :lol: :lol: :blush:

[NorthantsSnow]

Apparently Rob M just said on the 8pm forecast that everywhere in the UK will have experienced snow by the end of the weekend.

A brave call, but I hope he's right. :lol:

[pj cov]

They still have the East Midlands down for severe weather warning.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

how can the met office give a warning for leicester??

i live in coventry,,20 miles directly south,,and nothing..

with the snow arriving from the east,,im confused..

[snowhope]

Gotta say, I am a bit downbeat this evening going into this spell now, for us South West Midlanders it looked for a time that we could see something out of this. I am not one to moan normally but even with these synoptics we may just miss out again. It does always seem to downgrade these events as they get closer to T+ 00.

We start looking away from Thursday friday now to Sunday and the start of next week but the snow always just creeps away or the precipitation bands dont make it over us.

Just for once it would be lovely for it not to be so marginal and to know you are gonna get a pasting from the white stuff.

This purely a regional thing, I am sure a lot of midlanders and people in more favourable area's will do well out of this!

Chasing snow isnt quite the same as it falling on your doorstep though

Lets hope for upgrades over the next 24 hours eh!

[mackerel sky]

we also have to take into account confection

Mars Bars, Curly Wurlys, Haribo etc as the amount eaten feeds directly in the operational run. So stop eating them, you porker. Raiding selecton boxes before Christmas, tsk.

Worried this is just looking like a Lincolnshire event... all was going swimmingly until the 12z for more widespread precipitation inland. Unfortunately the GFS precipitation charts in my experience tend to be rather accurate in the very near time frame. FAX charts still look okay mind.

Edited December 16, 2009 by mackerel sky

[NorthantsSnow]

Here's Accuweather's take on Northants' snow chances over the next few days:

Wednesday Night, Dec 16

Rain & Snow

A mix of snow and rain this evening with little or no accumulation; plenty of clouds and cold. Winds from the N at 12 km/h.

Low: -1 °C

Thursday, Dec 17

Rain & Snow

Breezy and chilly with periods of snow and rain with little or no accumulation. Winds from the N at 28 km/h.

High: 3 °C

Thursday Night, Dec 17

Flurries

Mostly cloudy, breezy and colder with a couple of snow showers. Winds from the NNE at 32 km/h.

Low: -5 °C

Friday, Dec 18

Flurries

Mostly cloudy and cold with a couple of snow showers. Winds from the N at 22 km/h.

High: 0 °C

Could be worse. At least the "s" word is mentioned in each and every window. Maybe all is not lost!

[mackerel sky]

Out of interest, would appear www.raintoday.co.uk seem now to be colour coding precipitation type a la the netweather extra radar.

As for Accuweather, I don't know how seriously to take our man Joe Laminate Flooring and co, professional body builder (and his wife), ex pro-American footballer, global warming sceptic, mild mannered janitor, meteorologist... etc.

Edited December 16, 2009 by mackerel sky

[dogs32]

models....hmm...it doesnt matter what kind of model your talking about, they're all the same...GFS/ECM/UKMO, Cat-walk supermodels, Bra&Panty models, even page 3 models....they look all appealing, show off their assets, offer glimpses of your wildest fantasies & then you get totally blown out and reality sets in!

:lol:

classic AJ..

last time i watch the Model channel on 233

sorry I mean adult channel

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Two of the most difficult forecasts are trying to predict thunderstorms and "SNOW" !!I think the Midlands best chance is over the weekend when that cold front drops down and perhaps gives us some frontal snow for a time [backedge]

To be honest with you , thats the first iv heard of the sat night event as back edge snow?????? Its meant to be an omega block with bitterly cold esterly winds followed by a cold northerly, if there is now another WARM secter involved for tat front then i really cant be arsd with it , its the middle of dec , why would there be a warm secter? COMMENTS PLS

[JamieUK]

To be honest with you , thats the first iv heard of the sat night event as back edge snow?????? Its meant to be an omega block with bitterly cold esterly winds followed by a cold northerly, if there is now another WARM secter involved for tat front then i really cant be arsd with it , its the middle of dec , why would there be a warm secter? COMMENTS PLS

Well I thought Saturday was forecast to be SNOW with accumulations. Temps are forecast to be negative through the night and throughout the day for the best part of the UK, if im right.

EDIT: Saying that.....Monday into Tuesday has better prospects of snow according to Netweather forecast. Doh Good, more prolonged stuff ALWAYS being put back and then not happening! lol

Edited December 16, 2009 by JamieUK

[Bristawl Si]

To be honest with you , thats the first iv heard of the sat night event as back edge snow?????? Its meant to be an omega block with bitterly cold esterly winds followed by a cold northerly, if there is now another WARM secter involved for tat front then i really cant be arsd with it , its the middle of dec , why would there be a warm secter? COMMENTS PLS

Hi, couldn't help but drop in on the Midlands thread as we're 50 miles south of you guys.

Have to agree with your assessment here Shaun. I thought the block, cold easterly and then northerly were going to give us a taste of real winter - models have flipped in last 24 hours or so. A few days ago temps wre progged for freezing in day from now til weekend. Not now.

And as for some of the comments in the main thread earlier this week comparing up and coming 'cold' spell with snow to Dec 81! Now

that's funny!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

To be honest with you , thats the first iv heard of the sat night event as back edge snow?????? Its meant to be an omega block with bitterly cold esterly winds followed by a cold northerly, if there is now another WARM secter involved for tat front then i really cant be arsd with it , its the middle of dec , why would there be a warm secter? COMMENTS PLS

didnt really agree with that backedge post, we already will have cold air in place before the northerly arrives (normally its mild air) so starting as snow, there may be a mild sector but its so cold gfs keeps it as snow away from coasts with -5 or lower uppers, then when front clears -10 uppers arriving

then sunday a hope for cheshire gap showers

[ISAAC]

Mars Bars, Curly Wurlys, Haribo etc as the amount eaten feeds directly in the operational run. So stop eating them, you porker. Raiding selecton boxes before Christmas, tsk.

Worried this is just looking like a Lincolnshire event... all was going swimmingly until the 12z for more widespread precipitation inland. Unfortunately the GFS precipitation charts in my experience tend to be rather accurate in the very near time frame. FAX charts still look okay mind.

I disagree. Yesterday's patchy rain/sleet and snow turned out to be almost non-existent even though GFS clearly showed precipitation all accross.

I have to admit GFS is almost spot on when it comes to frontal systems but it can never show shower activity with complete accuracy, remember in Febuary's easterly, showers were all over the place by 12 noon when GFS was stil showing them in the far south east.

It will only show an idea of where the showers will be, when in reality we know some of them are bound to pep up and penetrate in land or vice versa. Nowcasting is the best tool, i will not be surprised if there are snow showers in Leicester/Nottingham area tommorow by tomorrow noon.

[JamieUK]

All I can say is.....I can't wait until the update at 10pm. Come ON!!!!! it has to be good!

[stripe]

so much doom and gloom, within the next 4 days we will all see snow, then we can go out and party, got my sledge today 3 quid, and i'm ready to roll,just wait a little longer

[snowhope]

All I can say is.....I can't wait until the update at 10pm. Come ON!!!!! it has to be good! :)

Lets hope thats the case, it is just the one run so far thats pushed the precipitation back to the eastern half of the region. Not confident for the next couple of days now however as the forecasters are not mentioning the midlands too much with ref to snow thus far.

[cyclonic happiness]

I've noticed over the past few years since the new graphics started, that they tend to go all around the edge and miss most of the midlands out anyway!!!

We'll do ok out of this imo.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well iv just looked at weathertwo model discussion and somebody asked why know one is talking about the sat night event and some1 wrote bk sayin ''cause its a mainly northerly event'' and some1 else said ''nothing compared to the april 08 event'' when i personaly had 4inc from that , if this turns out to be a flop it goes to show how pathetic things have become, also what i dont understand is if we have -10uppers 2moz and fri then surely with the warm sea shouldnt that mean severe convection?? Last wk ones were saying ''the north sea would be a snow macheine'' !!!! And i agreed , so what has gone wrong ?????????????

[jimben]

netweather rainfall radar say snow, look outside say no !! Instead yet more festive drizzle. Hey ho better refill my glass to more than half full.

Having found myself staring at a lamp post watching drizzle fall I have to accept that I need serious help.

Edited December 16, 2009 by jimben

[Bolton67]

netweather rainfall radar say snow, look outside say no !! Instead yet more festive drizzle. Hey ho better refill my glass to more than half full

Yep..raining just down the road from you.

The set up's have been fantastic all week, but i think we are going to be all a little dissapointed.

Reminds me of Euro 96. going great, then gareth southgate stepped up to take the penalty.

Edited December 16, 2009 by Lancs_Northants

[Nick L]

Don't see why we have all this negativity. We still have a great chance of a good snow event on Saturday night. Chill out folks.

[stewfox]

I disagree. Yesterday's patchy rain/sleet and snow turned out to be almost non-existent even though GFS clearly showed precipitation all accross.

I have to admit GFS is almost spot on when it comes to frontal systems but it can never show shower activity with complete accuracy, remember in Febuary's easterly, showers were all over the place by 12 noon when GFS was stil showing them in the far south east.

It will only show an idea of where the showers will be, when in reality we know some of them are bound to pep up and penetrate in land or vice versa. Nowcasting is the best tool, i will not be surprised if there are snow showers in Leicester/Nottingham area tommorow by tomorrow noon.

Dont worry was saying sleet showers in Reading today when it was moderate snow works both ways