Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

You see i dont get why the warnings are there for eastern areas when the models look to me the midlands in general will get a few decent falls out of this ?? Any1 shed some light on this pls t will be a great help , i no the favored spots are likely to see the most but the fax and gfs show various troughs to play a key part , any1 no why the met hasnt picked up on this? Thoughts welcome , thanks

[Serendipity]

So if the colder air will start moving in later, where are we looking for it? I know the last 2 days the SE has been cold and I've been watching the snow reports. The cold air seems to be retreating and temps rising reasonably steadily, not many places left at under 1 deg c really now. So will the cold air start pushing back in from the se or will it come from another direction?

[MKN]

You see i dont get why the warnings are there for eastern areas when the models look to me the midlands in general will get a few decent falls out of this ?? Any1 shed some light on this pls t will be a great help , i no the favored spots are likely to see the most but the fax and gfs show various troughs to play a key part , any1 no why the met hasnt picked up on this? Thoughts welcome , thanks

A question ive asked in the model outlook thread, but seems like no1 can answer that question

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0a.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2a.gif

With them fax charts id have expected snow to fall over the next 3 days alot more widely than being forecast

Edited December 16, 2009 by SnowTornado

[Crimson_Sprite]

+sigh+ gloomy in Notts and misting out. Downgrade from yesterday for snow too I think.. Due to get some flurries, but no more moderate snow fall, and only sporadic flurries at best. At least its not forecast to rain though. I always tell myself not to get excited about these weather events as I know darn well that they always end up being like 17 flakes, 20 minutes of mist, and then fog for the rest of the period. I agree too that the temps seem to be rising!

[chrisb1357]

Light rain here in Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire,

Has the weather been downgraded for today and thur

Chris

[doublebarrel]

A question ive asked in the model outlook thread, but seems like no1 can answer that question

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0a.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2a.gif

With them fax charts id have expected snow to fall over the next 3 days alot more widely than being forecast

exactley mate, people are posting this and that chart ohj yes its definatly snow !! where? its 4.8 temp here and raining. net weather radar shows the snow going southwards,sothat is not comeing up. the local radio as i type is saying rain /drizzle maybe expecting 5- 10 cm`s snow anywhere tomorrow. but thats 24hrs away .

another post for the bin i suspect !!

Edited December 16, 2009 by doublebarrel

[kold weather]

I can only imagine the 06z focused the worst of the snowfall on the SE instead during Friday and thats why there is a sudden shift.

Saying that I'd be very surprised if we don't see a warning get issued for eastern Midlands for snowfall either later today or tomorrow but we shall see. There looks enough instablity about for there to be the odd trough in the flow and I'd expect somewhere up the east coast to get it, its just a matter of where and I suspect the Met Office aren't confident enough yet for a warning.

[NorthantsSnow]

Just been out for a drive. Drizzly rain all the way through.

Feels bitter out but temp is up to just under 4C after an overnight low of -2C. Still a bit of mist around.

Edited December 16, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[Polar Low]

Light rain here in Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire,

Has the weather been downgraded for today and thur

Chris

No, it's going just as forecast so far.

[NorthantsSnow]

I think i could just about use the word upgrade in regards to the latest bbc forecast on n24. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

Can I ask- do you watch every single forecast on BBC News? It certainly seems that way.

But no, I am grateful for the update. I think the regionals will be most interesting tonight. Julie on Look East has been a bit subdued with regard to snow potential up to now, so I'm keen to find out if she'll back down and admit the potential exists for heavy snowfall on Thurs into Friday, as the UKMO advisory states.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Thick fog and drizzle here on the Oxon/Warks border

[Eugene]

TBH i`m not surprised its rainfall for the midlands today look at the 850`s today, the southeast got some colder continential air early this morning thats why its snowing there and temps will rise as they do during daylight hours anytime of year

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn062.png

The cold 850`s move in from early tomorrow morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn242.png

The proper cold was always for later in the week into next, the first three or four days days of this week were more transitional cold.

[Crimson_Sprite]

Thick fog and drizzle here on the Oxon/Warks border

*** I just read your slogan thingy at the bottom of your quotes, "+sigh+ Patiently waiting for the Gulf Stream to shut down" hahahaha!! That's so how I feel too!!!!! lol!! ***

[Shirelord]

Thick fog and drizzle here on the Oxon/Warks border

I can vouch for that

[tom_f123]

Non event, expected to be have at least 1ft of snow by now reading the model threads last week

[NorthantsSnow]

Non event, expected to be have at least 1ft of snow by now reading the model threads last week :lol:

Erm, the start date for this proper was always the 17th. The GFS picked that up ages ago. From Sunday to now has just been an extension of the cold spell with occasional snow flurries in the east. Nothing surprising about how this has panned out so far.

[andy_leics22]

Still think parts of the west Midlands, moreso towards the eastern half of the west Midlands can get some decent accumulations from Thursday evening into Friday, just depends on how much precip can make its way inland before swinging south. I think 1-2" wouldn't be bad considering we aren't the most favoured location from north easterlies, though if the flow was strong enough the it would be like February of this year, where for here in Birmingham, we had some moderate to heavy snow bands push in on the 2nd, and intense snow showers push in a few days later.

What we need, is a potent north to north west flow or a 'battleground' setup to get some significant accumulations. Still all to play for into the weekend aswell so I'm confident that by the end of the week, Birmingham would have seen some considerable snowfall.

Agreed, Leicester MAY do well from this but I have a bad feeling that the precip will skirt with the Eastern side of Leicestershire and Rutland and then slide South across East Anglia and the South East :lol:

[Serendipity]

Erm, the start date for this proper was always the 17th. The GFS picked that up ages ago. From Sunday to now has just been an extension of the cold spell with occasional snow flurries in the east. Nothing surprising about how this has panned out so far.

I don't see how the last few days could be described as an extension of the cold spell though, given that it's not actually BEEN cold! Just rainy, murky and miserable, not even any frost here.

I will be delighted if it does get colder, even if it doesn't snow. Anything is better than this miserable excuse for weather we have had of late!

EDIT - Somebody heard me and literally since I wrote it has brightened up outside! I feel all chirpy now!

Edited December 16, 2009 by Serendipity

[azores92]

living 10 miles west of birmingham gives me little optimism for this cold spell it has to be said! it seems like birmingham eastwards is more favoured for accumulations of snow, though the really favoured spots are probably coventry eastwards. id love to be pleasantly surprised, but with 1mm of precip progged for tomorrow, this can only spell bad news for us on the wrong side of the city.

[Crimson_Sprite]

Agreed, Leicester MAY do well from this but I have a bad feeling that the precip will skirt with the Eastern side of Leicestershire and Rutland and then slide South across East Anglia and the South East

I totally agree with you- same for Nottingham, I reckon we might get a few flurries blowing in the wind, but about 10 miles east of us will get snow. I'd bet on it!

[andy_leics22]

I totally agree with you- same for Nottingham, I reckon we might get a few flurries blowing in the wind, but about 10 miles east of us will get snow. I'd bet on it!

I will be seriously jealous if that happens lol. I may even get desperate and get a train to somewhere like Cambridge or Peteborough on Friday morning Anyone up for joining me?

Edited December 16, 2009 by andy_leics22

[Slinky]

I will be seriously jealous if that happens lol. I may even get desperate and get a train to somewhere like Cambridge or Peteborough on Friday morning Anyone up for joining me?

Andy would not bother coming here (peterborough) doubt we will get anything other then sleet!

[echobase]

I will be seriously jealous if that happens lol. I may even get desperate and get a train to somewhere like Cambridge or Peteborough on Friday morning Anyone up for joining me?

Stop by for a mince pie and some mulled wine on the way through, I`ll be at the shop from 7am regardless of the snow!!

[NorthantsSnow]

Some forecasters are apparently likening this event to that of the end of January 2003, which delivered a not very impressive 1.4cm here!

However, during that event the winds were more northerly, whereas this time there is more of an easterly component, therefore I wouldn't be surprised if some of the heavier showers made better progress inland.

Compare the FAX charts:

2003 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2003/brack/bracka20030131.gif

2009 http://209.197.11.176/a7h9b2n7/cds/fax/PPVI89.png?dopvhost=cache.netweather.tv&doppl=0f36092b441f090d444f095d958a0216444f0962&dopsig=0da3726d036ec233425abe702081016c

[Nick L]

Nothing but cold rain today! Very depressing day.