Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Potent Gust]

I have said before surprises can happen. It will be a case of radar and lamppost watching. Many a snow event has happened in Tamworth when we least expected it. Lots of twists and turns to come. Either way it will feel festive!

[andy_leics22]

UKMO precipitation chart Fri 18.12.09 12am:

Says it all really doesn't it! The further south-east you are, the better.

Perhaps slightly better for us further north and west than the GFS, but only ever so slightly. And bear in mind that is a 6 hour rainfall chart up to midnight, not 3 hours like the GFS. 1mm over 6 hours is very little-- only the areas shaded green are likely to see actual snow.

I sincerely hope that the models change the position of that low and PPN and push it 50-100 miles further West, it's unlikely but it's by no means a foregone conclusion. Even 50 miles change in the positioning would be a massive difference for us Midlanders.

Heres hoping!

Tonight's model runs are going to be MASSIVE and CRUCIAL.

[azores92]

i think too many people were going by the rule easterly=snow. the fact is, as i have said before, this easterly has been progged as fairly short lived, and a weak affair. to me this spelt some snow for eastern areas, but as far as the midlands went, it was very hit and miss. snow is very hard to predict, and in 99% percent of cases, you are better to watch the lamppost, rather than go by model predictions. who knows, the gfs may have called it slightly wrong, and the odd shower may make it into the midlands, but you've got high hopes if you were expecting to sledge your way into town by the weekend

[A.J]

models....hmm...it doesnt matter what kind of model your talking about, they're all the same...GFS/ECM/UKMO, Cat-walk supermodels, Bra&Panty models, even page 3 models....they look all appealing, show off their assets, offer glimpses of your wildest fantasies & then you get totally blown out and reality sets in!

[andy_leics22]

models....hmm...it doesnt matter what kind of model your talking about, they're all the same...GFS/ECM/UKMO, Cat-walk supermodels, Bra&Panty models, even page 3 models....they look all appealing, show off their assets, offer glimpses of your wildest fantasies & then you get totally blown out and reality sets in!

LMAO brilliant analogy!!

[Costa Del Fal]

not necessarily true luke, im sure we will fair much better than south wales and the south west in this cold spell, the northerly included. for the next couple of days, the snow risk is really confined to the south-east and the east coast. as has been said though, some very low maxima are likely for here. we could be doing a lot worse(16 degrees and rain)

True but even yesterday it looked much better. If the Cheshire Gap gets into work then we could do well but it doesnt work that often imo but im not saying it wont.

NW Radar begining to show backedge sleet and snow from this precipitation now. Will it get here? I wish!

Edited December 16, 2009 by Blizzards

[snow drift]

i think too many people were going by the rule easterly=snow. the fact is, as i have said before, this easterly has been progged as fairly short lived, and a weak affair. to me this spelt some snow for eastern areas, but as far as the midlands went, it was very hit and miss. snow is very hard to predict, and in 99% percent of cases, you are better to watch the lamppost, rather than go by model predictions. who knows, the gfs may have called it slightly wrong, and the odd shower may make it into the midlands, but you've got high hopes if you were expecting to sledge your way into town by the weekend

Spot on. The other problem is that too many people on the site look and see what they want to see. Any analysis that talks up snow potential and uses the words SNOWFEST, PROLONGED, HEAVY ETC in areas where this actualy is unlikey are left for people to read and increase their hopes. Any analysis thats says the oposite are attacked and rubbished.

However, you are better placed than I to see snow. Down here it as rare as hens teeth. Thankfully I visit the North Cotswolds on a regular basis and this area gets snow. i

[Serendipity]

Too warm here - 4.7 and 4.5 dew point! Nothing remotely cold yet

[azores92]

True but even yesterday it looked much better. If the Cheshire Gap gets into work then we could do well but it doesnt work that often imo but im not saying it wont.

the only reason it looked much better yesterday, is because as far as snow is concerned, anything really beyond 24 hours is FI. getting your hopes up is inevitably going to lead to disappointment, and clearly this is the case. you have to be rational about snow, it's a devil to forecast, and radar watching is your best bet. i doubt we will get anything tomorrow night, and it is possible we may get some snow at the weekend, but that could go down the pan aswell.

[JamieUK]

models....hmm...it doesnt matter what kind of model your talking about, they're all the same...GFS/ECM/UKMO, Cat-walk supermodels, Bra&Panty models, even page 3 models....they look all appealing, show off their assets, offer glimpses of your wildest fantasies & then you get totally blown out and reality sets in! :lol:

Hahahahaha!! Thats brilliant ....

Edited December 16, 2009 by JamieUK

[andy_leics22]

True but even yesterday it looked much better. If the Cheshire Gap gets into work then we could do well but it doesnt work that often imo but im not saying it wont.

NW Radar begining to show backedge sleet and snow from this precipitation now. Will it get here? I wish!

And that precip type radar is about as useful as a shoe with no sole when walking on hot coals.

All the precip type radar does is show what the models say SHOULD be happening. I have found that precip type radar inaccurate a lot of times. Sure it's been accurate too but it's been inaccurate too much to take it seriously.

[A.J]

Easterly = snow depending on how far west the weather fronts progress, where flow is coming from and how strong it is. Nobody was expecting heavy prolonged snowfall compared to what eastern areas of country, particuarly the south east are going to experience because, well, they are towards the east and thus closer to the north sea, so very cold upper temps combined with the mositure from the sea means heavy snow.

For here in Birmingham to get decent snowfall from a north easterly, the flow must be strong so precip is pushed west right across the country as was the case during February. A strong north westerly or 'battleground' setup is where Birmingham gets its heavy snow from, not so much from a north easterly. I still think heavy snow is possible during the weekend so I'm not going to be down about the models showing a "downgrade", if people must call it that.

Good post......TBH, I just want anything to shift this perpetual gloom thats been sitting overhead for the past few days...cold, sunny, with snow showers is cool.....cold, dreary, with drizzle is pants!

[NorthantsSnow]

I sincerely hope that the models change the position of that low and PPN and push it 50-100 miles further West, it's unlikely but it's by no means a foregone conclusion. Even 50 miles change in the positioning would be a massive difference for us Midlanders.

Heres hoping!

Tonight's model runs are going to be MASSIVE and CRUCIAL.

That would be nice Andy but to be honest my gut feeling is the models have now simply got a better grip of the situation than previously and are starting to hone in on the detail. Personally I'm not expecting many changes between now and the event itself, but I'd love to be proved wrong.

[azores92]

Easterly = snow depending on how far west the weather fronts progress, where flow is coming from and how strong it is. Nobody was expecting heavy prolonged snowfall compared to what eastern areas of country, particuarly the south east are going to experience because, well, they are towards the east and thus closer to the north sea, so very cold upper temps combined with the mositure from the sea means heavy snow.

For here in Birmingham to get decent snowfall from a north easterly, the flow must be strong so precip is pushed west right across the country as was the case during February. A strong north westerly or 'battleground' setup is where Birmingham gets its heavy snow from, not so much from a north easterly. I still think heavy snow is possible during the weekend so I'm not going to be down about the models showing a "downgrade", if people must call it that.

often it takes a little while before the west mids joins in the fun. some of us here had high expectations for the midlands, and going by some of the experts comments, this was to be expected. however, given the fact the easterly hs been forecast to last for such a short amount of time, its only likely that the odd shower will get as far inland as here really.

EDIT: you've shown how many factors need to work before the midlands gets snow from an easterly

Edited December 16, 2009 by azores92

[Costa Del Fal]

the only reason it looked much better yesterday, is because as far as snow is concerned, anything really beyond 24 hours is FI. getting your hopes up is inevitably going to lead to disappointment, and clearly this is the case. you have to be rational about snow, it's a devil to forecast, and radar watching is your best bet. i doubt we will get anything tomorrow night, and it is possible we may get some snow at the weekend, but that could go down the pan aswell.

I never really got my hopes up in the first place as i know how much these situations change but to see so much change in one or two runs is really dissapointing.

[MKN]

I think what your saying andy is our only chance, normally if were bang in the firing line from low pressure to the south you can guarentee it ends up 50 miles to far north giving us rain or 50miles to far south giving us bugger all, lets hope for once it can move 50miles north-west and we get in the area of snow. Otherwise apart from some snow moving down from the north, looks like our region may go through the best setup in many years and have very little to show for it.

[azores92]

I never really got my hopes up in the first place as i know how much these situations change but to see so much change in one or two runs is really dissapointing.

thats the models for you

[cyclonic happiness]

OMG guys, what's with all the wrist slashing??

You are not gonna know how much precipitaion is gonna come our way until you are staring at the radar and waiting for it to arrive.

We have a brilliant cold spell coming up which will deliver at some point, so chin up!!!

Besides, we all know that all these negative thoughts raise the temperatures in the upper atmosphere don't we?

[A.J]

OMG guys, what's with all the wrist slashing??

You are not gonna know how much precipitaion is gonna come our way until you are staring at the radar and waiting for it to arrive.

We have a brilliant cold spell coming up which will deliver at some point, so chin up!!!

Besides, we all know that all these negative thoughts raise the temperatures in the upper atmosphere don't we?

Quite the contrary.....we're all secretly surmising that the chilly mood in this thread will propergate though the atmosphere and drop dewpoints and upper 850 temps so we get an absolute dumping!...trying to pull the wool over 'mother nature's' eyes is the name of the game

[Eugene]

No disappointment from me - even a pessimistic scenario has the proper cold lasting a week! I hate the Model thread once a cold spell starts - instead of the excitement of future charts you get the woe of breakdown-spotting. There can be six inches of snow on the deck and people scour the charts for mildness at T+120 instead of enjoying it!

Yes the amount of doom around the forums is just incredible soon i`m going to wish for very mild winters just to spite the moaners then they`ll really have something to moan over.

[jimben]

Met office forecast charts issued at 14:52 today still show heavy snow showers from Thursday afternoon through to Friday for the East Midlands. I believe that it is widely accepted that Met Office have a lot more information that is not available on the web. My glass is always half full.

[andy_leics22]

Yes the amount of doom around the forums is just incredible soon i`m going to wish for very mild winters just to spite the moaners then they`ll really have something to moan over.

I'd actually rather have mild weather than missing out on a covering of snow by 50-100 miles.

[Nick L]

I'd actually rather have mild weather than missing out on a covering of snow by 50-100 miles.

NO! Because then it provides more ammunition for the modern winter fanatics...

[A.J]

NO! Because then it provides more ammunition for the even larger teapot fanatics...

You mean 'christmas pudding' fanatics...yep, swear filter still working

[jimben]

A live uk snow map being used in conjunction with Twitter http://uksnow.benmarsh.co.uk/ which is picking up exactly where snow is falling at present. Looks quite accurate.

Edited December 16, 2009 by jimben