North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[shuggee]

Please use this thread to have a discussion about the prospects for something wintry in the north east of England

[paul tall]

I look forward to lashings of NO Shugs. I am pretty much of the opinion offered by PP last night - the easterly is more likely to be a south eastern/eastern event with the north east getting the scraps, and as for the following northerly? Well a northerly here is as much use as a chocolate teapot.

Maybe I should have put that in the whinging thread.

[craig1973]

so you think middlesbrough will be just rain or sleet, will just have to get in my car and go up the moors to see the snow .

[Rollo]

Indeed you should Paul, at this stage the Northerly could be a damp squib here but I reckon there is just as much chance of us getting a dumping-alas only time will tell but we have done well up here many times in the past and first and foremost lets get the very cold air established.

[peterf]

i'm not worried, i'll take anything mother nature has in mind for us up here.

[paul tall]

so you think middlesbrough will be just rain or sleet, will just have to get in my car and go up the moors to see the snow .

I'm not saying that we WILL miss out or that the Borer will only get sleet. What I am saying is that bitter experience has learned me the hard way, how many times in the last 6/7 years of really following the weather on here have we had "synoptics not seen for years" and ended up with bog all?

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

I think most of us away from the coast will get a covering Thursday/Friday.

The weekend looks quite promising to me with a trough possibly moving down from the north, one run even had this stationary over us for most of Saturday, if only!

[Just Before Dawn]

I'm not saying that we WILL miss out or that the Borer will only get sleet. What I am saying is that bitter experience has learned me the hard way, how many times in the last 6/7 years of really following the weather on here have we had "synoptics not seen for years" and ended up with bog all?

Very often. There's not much more symptomatic of recent winters than having a promising northerly unfold before our eyes somewhere offshore over the North Sea, or knackered by Sea Surface Temps. As you say, not saying this will be the case here, but if it were, it wouldn't be the first time....

BTW, am I supposed to be here? - I am according to NW maps, but technically I'm in the East Mids.

[paul tall]

I think you belong in the Yorkshire thread mate.

[Geordiesnow]

I think the term wintry showers is starting to come mind now rather than snow showers it must be said.

Chance of snow tomorrow night perhaps with a few showers, upper air temps are around -5 and although PPN is not fantastic if you do get a shower, it might be snow? Maybe i'm being a bit optimistic.

Not expecting huge amount of snow but i'm sure most of us would see some by Friday night(hopefully).

[Thundery wintry showers]

Overnight Thursday into Friday continues to look favourable near the east coast with a slackening easterly flow, -10C 850hPa air, and some showers continuing to fire in from the North Sea. If anything it's inland parts of the region that could miss out, because when the showers are fiting a long way inland on a strong easterly flow, the upper air will only be around -5C which suggests more of a wintry mix.

But you never know with these easterlies- I remember overnight 28th/29th December 2005 when a very sluggish east-north-easterly flow brought snow showers well inland, for example.

I can't agree with Paul Tall's observation that northerlies are useless. Traditionally in the past northerlies have been a regular source of significant snowfall for County Durham, and an excellent recent example occurred in late February 2004. The problem has been that many recent winter northerlies have had a wind slightly to the west of due north, such that snow showers have hugged the coast- it is notable that in the last decade the frequency of lying snow at Durham has declined to about the same level as Cleadon (approx. 6 days per year) just two miles inland from the coast. But a straight northerly or NNE'ly often sends showers a fair distance inland.

There could be a substantial snow event from the front that heads south introducing the northerly as it collides with very cold continental air. Friday may well see a max of only 1 or 2C.

[recklessabandon]

Need the easterlies to pick up somewhat, forecasts show them to be too slack right now to bring anything other than rain or sleet off the still warm (relativley) North Sea. Should see some good falls inland though through the dales. Need a good NE'ly gale

[Snowstorm1]

Well im very happy by thursday morning at 9am ill have 3-5cm of snow and snow continuing to fall throughout the day and then the showers increase in intensity during thursday night so by friday morning depth 7-20cm is easily possible then snow showers start to die out in the afternoon on friday but no snow melt so by this time 10cm-25cm and then dry overnight then saturday could bring a polar low and deliver many inches and that needs a massive eye kept on it! OVERALL IM IN A CHRISMASY COLD SNOWY MOOD TONIGHT!

Edited December 14, 2009 by Snowstorm1

[Alex95]

Well im very happy by thursday morning at 9am ill have 3-5cm of snow and snow continuing to fall throughout the day and then the showers increase in intensity during thursday night so by friday morning depth 7-20cm is easily possible then snow showers start to die out in the afternoon on friday but no snow melt so by this time 10cm-25cm and then dry overnight then saturday could bring a polar low and deliver many inches and that needs a massive eye kept on it! OVERALL IM IN A CHRISMASY COLD SNOWY MOOD TONIGHT!

Ramp alert! I reckon this looks like a decent spell, a widespread dusting of snow (maybe a few cm)at the end of the week, then over the weekend some heavier falls may occur. Low levels could easily see 5-10cm by Sunday, unless we are left dry with showers out at sea. That is as far as I'm willing to look at the moment, and whilst the northerly looks a bit NNW to me, it is also very potent so troughs could move south with more organised bands of snow. There is a possibility that there will be a direct N / NNE, if that was the case I'm sure deeper accumulations will be widespread as in late Feb 2004 for example. That spell dumped 6 inches here.

Edited December 14, 2009 by alza

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Can I play here, or am I to be lumped in with Manchester, Rochdale and all those frightful places?

[peterf]

just listening to radio newcastle online.hannah bayman pops up and says we have a risk of snow thursday onwards even upto xmas day

i cant think what makes her think that lol.do these people get paid ?

Edited December 14, 2009 by peterf

[paul tall]

You're nearer the North East than Rochdale.

[Methuselah]

Can I play here, or am I to be lumped in with Manchester, Rochdale and all those frightful places?

Aren't you northWEST?

[peterf]

Can I play here, or am I to be lumped in with Manchester, Rochdale and all those frightful places?

join the geordies OON lol.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Need the easterlies to pick up somewhat, forecasts show them to be too slack right now to bring anything other than rain or sleet off the still warm (relativley) North Sea. Should see some good falls inland though through the dales. Need a good NE'ly gale

That isn't supported by the model outputs at all- the easterly is still strong enough to bring the cold upper air (-10C 850hPa) over to north-east England and the progged temperature profiles for overnight 17th/18th December support snow showers.

In fact near the coast a strong onshore wind can be a bad thing as it creates a very large, albeit localised, warming effect near the coast such that it can be snowing and 0C at Durham but 4C and sleeting at South Shields, especially when SSTs are above normal. A good NE gale would be effective at bringing a lot of showers well inland though.

Edited December 14, 2009 by Thundery wintry showers

[Snowstorm1]

join the geordies OON lol.

No join the smoggies!

[Alex95]

It's a long time since we had a potent direct northerly, I think when one eventually comes along some people in the North East may be surprised by the amount of snow. Most northerlies since 2006 have either been west of due north, or not potent enough for snow. That very weak northerly on the 30th November this year contained lots of sleety showers which amounted to 8mm, if that had been more potent we'd be looking at 8cm, not to mention heavier showers due to the colder air, higher lapse rates etc. I am a little worried that this upcoming northerly is progged to be a NNW wind.

Oh and the only problem with OON joining us would be that he looks for slightly different synoptics, places west of the pennines do better from a wind west of due north, whilst over here we need a wind east of due north. Apart from that I don't see why not

Edited December 14, 2009 by alza

[Thundery wintry showers]

I am coming up to Cleadon on Thursday btw- that's why I belong in the North East England discussion as the significant snow potential kicks off as soon as I am due to arrive in the North East.

[Geordiesnow]

just listening to radio newcastle online.hannah bayman pops up and says we have a risk of snow thursday onwards even upto xmas day

i cant think what makes her think that lol.do these people get paid ?

I suppose what she says is possible especially if you look at the UKMO long range forecast, whether it would work out like that is a different matter.

I don't rate Hannah Bayman to high as a regional forecaster, i never really warmed to her because when she did one of her first forecasts, she was nervous and shaky and made a couple of mistakes but i thought that was down to nerves yet she still appear to make quite a few mistakes and relies on her mini screen to much.

Anyways, Snowstorm1 predictions are way to optimistic i'm afraid, i would expect a thin covering at the best and that probably would arrive on Friday morning as that when the coldest air filters in.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

You're nearer the North East than Rochdale.

Whenever I'm feeling a little bit down and I need to cheer myself up, I remind myself of that fact.

Aren't you northWEST?

I'm north-central!

join the geordies OON lol.

I married one. Suppose I might as well hang around here then.

If I ask any of you to repeat yourselves though, please don't be offended. It'll merely be your delightful regional accents....pet.