North West England Cold Spell Discussion 2

[trickydicky]

How come last night was so, relatively, mild then? A low of just -3.6º is quite mild for me, considering there was lying snow.

Probably because it was windy, my low was only -3. The wind will have stirred the air preventing the coldest bits collecting at the surface around thermometers. I think...

[k19]

So... whats the outlook for today? any snow for the north west anyone? i mean lancashire area, manchester look to get some, but for preston, the snow first must pass through newcastle

[Dingwantssnow]

So whats the chances for some heavy snow for the manchester area over the weekend then?

[Verglas]

bright sunny morning, just barely above zero, dew point -3.6c

light airs, just put some water in the bird bath and the tweets were straight down for a drink

[Darren Bown]

So... whats the outlook for today? any snow for the north west anyone? i mean lancashire area, manchester look to get some, but for preston, the snow first must pass through newcastle

Dry sunny and cold, not looking snowy now until tomorrow night/Sunday

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

So whats the chances for some heavy snow for the manchester area over the weekend then?

Tomorrow looks marginal,posibly sleet/wet snow manchester but rain near the coasts.Sunday looks better and a

covering is more than probable if things go to plan.SOme more elevated areas near the pennines could see

snow sat and sun but altitude and location will no doubt make a difference here.

[karyo]

Latest by the Met Office

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of north and western Scotland, Northern Ireland, parts of the West Midlands, northwest England and northern Wales on Sunday. Heavy snow showers may give accumulations of 2-5cm and there is a risk of 10 to 15cm over hills.

Issued at: 1043 Fri 18 Dec

That's an improvement to yesterday's watch as it even includes the west midlads (i.e. a larger area)!

Karyo

[Weather-history]

That's an improvement to yesterday's watch as it even includes the west midlads (i.e. a larger area)!

Karyo

Sounds like the Cheshire Gap effect may come into play.

Difficult to say how this going to pan out. Tomorrow evening could go either the March 2008 way with more rain in the mix or the April 2008 way with more snow.

Cold air really digs behind the system, so Sunday morning looks icy!

[k19]

Sounds like the Cheshire Gap effect may come into play.

Difficult to say how this going to pan out. Tomorrow evening could go either the March 2008 way with more rain in the mix or the April 2008 way with more snow.

Cold air really digs behind the system, so Sunday morning looks icy!

whats the cheshire gap effect?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Sounds like the Cheshire Gap effect may come into play.

Difficult to say how this going to pan out. Tomorrow evening could go either the March 2008 way with more rain in the mix or the April 2008 way with more snow.

Cold air really digs behind the system, so Sunday morning looks icy!

Agreed Mr Data.

From my point of view i have 650ft elevation and im pretty far from the coast so if it rains here then pretty

much everyone else will be seeing rain i'd have thought.Merseyside etc looks like a non event to me,far to

marginal.

[karyo]

Sounds like the Cheshire Gap effect may come into play.

Difficult to say how this going to pan out. Tomorrow evening could go either the March 2008 way with more rain in the mix or the April 2008 way with more snow.

Cold air really digs behind the system, so Sunday morning looks icy!

Yes, the front looks active with the cold air digging behind! The advantage we are having is that it will be cold at the surface but unfortunately the wind ahead of the front will bring somewhat milder air over us from the Irish sea. It's tricky but interesting!

Karyo

[Storm Animal]

Got a nice covering of snow here, couple of cm's still blowing around in the wind. Temp is currently -2oC and had a few flurries this morning, but now lovely and sunny. Time to get the wooley hat out and go walking!

[SP1986]

Agreed Mr Data.

From my point of view i have 650ft elevation and im pretty far from the coast so if it rains here then pretty

much everyone else will be seeing rain i'd have thought.Merseyside etc looks like a non event to me,far to

marginal.

Agreed, although once the temperature fall below 0C after the rain it's going to be very very icy as Kevin has said.

I don't agree with the minimums being shown by the GFS, as with a northwest wind it'll be closer to 0/-1C than -5C, but for the rest of the region -5C is a good bet.

Tonight looks equally as cold, especially where the snow lies today, could see as low as -7C in those places.

I have to admit at first I was extremely doubtful about the cold spell but now its here it's a fair potent one even up until now!

[swainclubber]

being at work i cant check the charts just yet, when does the 6z predict a breakdown for?

[Dingwantssnow]

SO further east you are the better for snow. So for me being in dukinfield at the foot of the pennines i could be in the sweet spot. Im not that experienced to know all of this im just putting bits of info together but the nagging question for me is just how mch snow should we be expecting??

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

SO further east you are the better for snow. So for me being in dukinfield at the foot of the pennines i could be in the sweet spot. Im not that experienced to know all of this im just putting bits of info together but the nagging question for me is just how mch snow should we be expecting??

Imposible to say,posibly a few cm tomorrow but a lot depends on dew points etc,could be very marginal.As the front

sweeps south sat night looks cold again and sunday should see plenty of snow showers as the winds veer NW,

there is a chance of a polar low i'd have thought but they are imposible to call at this range.

Sunday looks very good for the NW with no warm sectors involved in that NW flow.

[Snow free zone]

Snow tomorrow is now less than a 10% chance for here. Saturday night and into Sunday look much better here's hoping for a reasonable covering come Sunday night.

[Dingwantssnow]

Thanks for the reply Happy D Im just hoping that there is no warm sectors. Dont know where the warm air would come from anyway.

[fluffytrollop]

Hi all,

here in chorltleton we had a lovely snowfall ...er, in my garden...???!! 2.3cm fell out there, much to the puzzlement of my chickens, who'd never even seen sky til june this year. They aint impressed, unsurprisingly, but heck, my kids sure are. ish. til they' ve been out in it for ten minutes without their gloves. dur.

So we had a wander down to the water park and it was..well, not as deep there...? UM. puzzled. measured on paving in garden and paving down there, so not an issue with choosing the wrong surface, but there was less lying snow on the fields than in the garden while it was falling, with light wind, beautiful, joyful, wintry wonderland nonetheless. and a perfect oppo for hot chocolate and cracking the christmas gackfest open a bit early.( For the energy, y'know :-D)

Anyway, what I'd be pleased to know is whether there will be snow here in M21 on Xmas eve - it's my eldest boy's birthday and so what a cracking pressie that would make hey? He's only 11 and has inherited my passion for snow, but met office data suggests rain. OH NO! SOB!

[cheshire snow]

Just took the liberty of checking the BBC Weather maps for tomorrow and ATM it looks very much like

the front coming down from the North will be of Snow for inland areas the warm sector out to the west

Will keep the ppn as rain on the coast.Sunday bring it on looking excelent for all the NW to get at least

A good covering.

C.S

[SP1986]

+1C out there now, but still the slightest frost remaining on some rooves and grass.

No wind now which is an ominous sign for tonight with regard to falling temperatures :smiliz19:

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

+1C out there now, but still the slightest frost remaining on some rooves and grass.

No wind now which is an ominous sign for tonight with regard to falling temperatures

Hi ste,

Im actually beginning to think you might do ok tomorrow evening.THe latest data suggests the mailnland will

stay well within the 528dam air and the surface temps will help when the front pushes down.

Pennine areas will see a few hours of snow tomorrow and all the NW should do very well sunday unless

things start unraveling at the 11th hour.

BAng on 0degrees here and little if any melt of snow from yesterday evening.Tonight could see temps

plummet,i woildnt be at all suprised to see -6 in the region.

[cheshire cat]

Lovely day here, Hale. 1C.

Dusting still around.

Marginal for Sat but still ok for Sun.

6z not the best run though, lets see what the 12z and faxes are like.

Parents rung up, jammy beggars they have 6 inches in N Yorks, schools closed playing with nephew and neices, what a way to spend the day eh?

[SP1986]

I would hope so, models are predicting 4-5C when the front goes over, with dewpoints rising to +1C for a short time in this area, so rain and sleet initially I think, perhaps snow on the back edge as the cold air cuts under.

As for tonight, my 10 years temperature record could well be under threat. The temperature record stands at -5.7C funnily enough recorded last year. 850hPa temperature will be -10C still overhead until midnight so it's not inconceivable that -6 or -7C could be the temperature here - although its unlikely. The temperature here should start to rise by approx. 3am as cloud moves in

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Managed an ice day here...just....-0.1º was reached a short while ago, but I suspect the sun on the weather station was playing a part as it's calm out there, and the temperature has now plummeted back down to -1.3º.