North West England Cold Spell Discussion 2

[John_T]

0.5c was the max today. Currently -0.3c.

[Dingwantssnow]

Hmm if this warm sector does effect us then i would have thought it would have been cold enough for us to get through it without much thawing of what we have already??

If it does melt then theres the issue of the ground being too wet for snow to settle on sunday.

[SP1986]

well I imagine the ground will be frozen come Sunday

[karyo]

As for tonight, my 10 years temperature record could well be under threat. The temperature record stands at -5.7C funnily enough recorded last year. 850hPa temperature will be -10C still overhead until midnight so it's not inconceivable that -6 or -7C could be the temperature here - although its unlikely. The temperature here should start to rise by approx. 3am as cloud moves in

It would be nice for that cloud to be delayed for a couple of hours to let the temperature plumet further! The cloud is associated with a weak weather front which the bbc forecast showed to give a bit of light snow to our region in the morning. The forecast for tomorrow afternoon/evening was interesting with snow in land and a lot of emphasis on Sunday's snow!

Karyo

[Louise]

Feeling a tad nippy out there at 1c, and some nice winter sunshine to be had. Children are going crazy at the prospect of some snow over the next couple of days but we don't have the best of track records here so we shall see...

[carinthian]

Afternoon all, hope you all are enjoying the wintery sunshine and cold. Should be plenty of ice about tonight after all the soakings in the fields over the past weeks. Tomorrow and Sunday looks interesting in your part of the world. Having looked at the upper air soundings from Torshavn , upwind , there is a narrow upper level warm sector between 3000 and 4000m in the flow. The upper winds should send this warmer mass across Northern Ireland and into the Irish Sea. Most of the region will remain with-in the 528 dam mass and dew points will struggle to get above zero away from the coastal strip as any embedded warm air will come up against very cold Pc lower layer air. So snowfall for most, sleet and snow in coastal regions turning to rain. Later , where all the fronts meet up ( called the triple point ) expect a moderate snowfall, South Lancs, Cheshire and parts of NE Wales looks likely to be in that zone.

C

[cheshire cat]

Cheers Carinth,

Good summary there, thats what I like about this site, you learn every day.

So carols in Hale outside The Railway, a proper pub btw, on Sunday could be quite festive.

Is there anyway that the intensity could pep up when this tri-pole effect takes place?

[Snow free zone]

Am i the only one fearing a repeat of the "snow events" we had in Jan/Feb last winter. It seems we now have another warm sector ready to put the mockers on any snow forecast for the lower ground of Central and West Lancs tomorrow. As for Sunday this now looks as well as its getting more marginal as we move closer. I can't accept the only snow we will get here out of this "event" was last nights shower activity.

[Never snows where i live]

Am i the only one fearing a repeat of the "snow events" we had in Jan/Feb last winter. It seems we now have another warm sector ready to put the mockers on any snow forecast for the lower ground of Central and West Lancs tomorrow. As for Sunday this now looks as well as its getting more marginal as we move closer. I can't accept the only snow we will get here out of this "event" was last nights shower activity.

I hope not. It would be typical when the big stuff comes in and we are just too warm.

[cheshire cat]

I know where you are coming from but the air is so much colder now that it was last year, also dont think we were in the 528 last year.

Suppose the time of day on Sunday will also be a factor.

Anyone got a eta for Sunday?

Saturday is a bonus really.

[SP1986]

even with 528dam air, the dewpoints will still be required to be under 0C, I imagine for west coastal areas that will not be the case, but definitely lots of ice. Sunday holds much better promise

[Snow free zone]

I know where you are coming from but the air is so much colder now that it was last year, also dont think we were in the 528 last year.

Suppose the time of day on Sunday will also be a factor.

Anyone got a eta for Sunday?

Saturday is a bonus really.

Last year here we seemed to be right on the dividing line, there was snow in Longridge/Blackburn less than 5-6 miles away - i'm not sure i'd be too amused if this happened again.

As for Sunday, well if it happens the same way as Christmas Day 5 years ago we should get a good dumping, it started snowing at around 11am that day and was still snowing 12 hrs later. The met office have updated the forecast to snow for us on Sunday so i'm a bit more confident of snow now.

[Dingwantssnow]

Looking at the Fax for Saturday(36hr) the 528 line skirts the length of eastern ireland from north to south so its well west of us, by 48 hrs its down over the South west of the uk, by 60hrs its into southern france and doesnt return to our shores until the 84hr mark.

Taking this into account i would have though we wopuld be in quite a good position unless there somthing im missing?

Edited December 18, 2009 by Dingwantssnow

[trickydicky]

Last year here we seemed to be right on the dividing line, there was snow in Longridge/Blackburn less than 5-6 miles away - i'm not sure i'd be too amused if this happened again.

As for Sunday, well if it happens the same way as Christmas Day 5 years ago we should get a good dumping, it started snowing at around 11am that day and was still snowing 12 hrs later. The met office have updated the forecast to snow for us on Sunday so i'm a bit more confident of snow now.

Me neither. Longridge seems to be smack bang on the boundary between the horrible mildness of west coast Lancashire and the more Yorkshire style weather experienced in the hillier bits further east. Last year we got quite a bit of sleet and non settling snow in Longridge itself while up on Longridge Fell (150m higher and 1 mile further east) there was often 3-4 inches of snow. I can see this happening again tomorrow. Hopefully Sunday will be a straight hit.

[Cheshire Gap]

In general I think we are all in a good position at this time in speaking....

I'd be interesting in to things, however,

Firstly, on the FAX charts at T+24 there seems to be a weaking front...any chance of ppn out of that and

secondly, this triple point...does that have any bias to the amount of ppn?

Regards

C.G

[SP1986]

The temperature is really dropping away now, -1.0C so I think -5 or -6C is a formality. We are very sheltered in this northeasterly wind and therefore seem to get some of the lowest temperatures, tonight will be very much indicative of that!

[Backtrack]

Temperature really dropping out there now. Had an ice day today with a max of 0.7c. Currently -0.3c

WILL THIS WARM SECTOR AFFECT ME? (someone tell me lol)

[Dingwantssnow]

Thats what i was trying to get at before surely with temps dropping like they are there going to be quite low come the morning and i would have though cold enough to cool the warm sector???

[cheshire cat]

Maybe one for the technical experts but, as you say the moisture falls, with the ground being so cold could cold evaporation cool the air?

[Snow free zone]

One thing that will be different tomorrow is that we already have an established cold pool or air over us. There is still snow on the ground (hardly any melt today) its the proper powdery stuff not the wet snow we usually get, this should also work in our favour and may help to keep the temps on the right side of marginal. Temp is really falling quickly now.

[Frozen Lands]

Going to be REALLY cold in the hills of Rossendale tonight!

The skies are clear and it's already - 3.6 :lol: :lol:

Edited December 18, 2009 by Frozen Lands

[cheshire snow]

Rain/Sleet on the coast turning to snow on the back edge

Inland snow

According to the BBC Weather and they have been spot on so far

C.S

[Dingwantssnow]

12z rolling and u can see that warm sector in scotland T-24.

[Louise]

Brrrr -1c and falling...

I can't bear the thought of heavy rain tomorrow as the beeb are forecasting it, the children will be devastated!

Edited December 18, 2009 by Louise

[Frozen Lands]

Now -4.2

Think we might break last years record of -9.6 at this rate!