North West England Cold Spell Discussion 2

[John_T]

-2.0c and dropping.

[James M]

Yes temperature plummeting here, -2.5°C atm, I hope we get another ice day tomorrow.

[shadowfax]

Now -4.2

Think we might break last years record of -9.6 at this rate!

At least I know what I am going home to, what's it going to be by 5.30?

Is the snow still there from this morning?

Shadowfax

[SP1986]

-1.9C here and falling really fast.. apparently its supposed to be above freezing by 9am tomorrow, it;ll take some doing

[James M]

At least I know what I am going home to, what's it going to be by 5.30?

Is the snow still there from this morning?

Shadowfax

If it's anything like in Saddleworth, pretty much all the snow that fell is still here, that's the good thing about snow in December, the sun won't melt it .

Edited December 18, 2009 by James M

[John_T]

-2.5c....

[James M]

The rate of temperature drop seems to be speeding up! down to -3.7°C now, usually slows down by midnight though.

[gearbox1001]

The rate of temperature drop seems to be speeding up! down to -3.7°C now, usually slows down by midnight though.

Here in Haydock (close to Wigan) we had quite abit of snow last night, it didnt ammount to much on ground, but was snowy. Today has been very very cold with only mid afternoon the snow starting to melt to freeze again now.

I know saturday looks set to be wet and windy and sunday to be snowy.

Here for a white xmas :blush:

[Backtrack]

GFS wants to keep my location JUST on the right side of marginal and not turn to rain tomorrow.

-0.8c atm.

[Snowmad79]

Hi all, Looks as though the Heavy Snow for tomorrow afternoon / Evening is still very much on the cards so ill just take a quick look at sunday.

As always I just use the GFS model for this as its easier.

So Sunday shows that with the wind direction of a more of a north north westerly precipitaion is likey to be a hit or miss situtation with best of snow for those futher to the west as the precip slides down over the region from the north. Those of us who live more towards the pennines are more likely to see the odd flurry on and off from midday whilst the coastal areas god forbide, may see more organised snow showers. Whether it sticks in those parts is up in the air really being next to the sea.

From roughly 3pm onwards the band of Precipitation intensifies giving more in the way of heavy polonged snow showers for most areas of the north west but a again more so for the western area of the north west such as Western and Southern Cumbria, the western side of lancashire including the coastal areas , northen merseyside and possibly northern parts of cheshire.

This is likely to be the case for the following few hours with Lancashire and southern Cumbria recieving the most notable falls of snow.

By 21:00 sunday evening showers will die out from the north with the ppn concentrated around the Merseyside and greater manchester area with many parts of cheshire barring the far noth of the region missing out. These showers are likely to persist through out the night into monday and its not clear yet wether the lingering band of ppn will intensify.

Accumlitations are likely in western inland areas.

Tbh i think at this point saturday looks much much better for accumilations to rival our southern counterparts. Rain will not happen tommorrow away from the coast because as the organised band of ppn hits the region hit will be hitting stagnant cold air and more importantly will be entwined with up -10 hpa... sufficient conditions for snow rather than rain IMO.

Looking ahead could see more winter showers in western fringes through untill atleast Tuesday !

Edited December 18, 2009 by Snowmad79

[Bartlett Low]

Some very low maximums and mins on the 12z for the next fortnight.

Strange to see such cold temperatures in association with a low pressure system.

If this pans out as predicted on the 12z then this will be a notable cold spell for sure.

[Never snows where i live]

Hope your right.

[James M]

Hi all, Looks as though the Heavy Snow for tomorrow afternoon / Evening is still very much on the cards so ill just take a quick look at sunday.

As always I just use the GFS model for this as its easier.

So Sunday shows that with the wind direction of a more of a north north westerly precipitaion is likey to be a hit or miss situtation with best of snow for those futher to the west as the precip slides down over the region from the north. Those of us who live more towards the pennines are more likely to see the odd flurry on and off from midday whilst the coastal areas god forbide, may see more organised snow showers. Whether it sticks in those parts is up in the air really being next to the sea.

From roughly 3pm onwards the band of Precipitation intensifies giving more in the way of heavy polonged snow showers for most areas of the north west but a again more so for the western area of the north west such as Western and Southern Cumbria, the western side of lancashire including the coastal areas , northen merseyside and possibly northern parts of cheshire.

This is likely to be the case for the following few hours with Lancashire recieving the most notable falls of snow.

Sunday looks quite interesting, if the wind is in just the right direction we can sometimes be right on target for a streamer! I remember several occasions where this has happened, the Saddleworth and Oldham area can be quite lucky at times. Not saying it will happen this time, but you never know, something to look out for.

Edited December 18, 2009 by James M

[Dingwantssnow]

Now that for Sat is looking rather tasty

Plus sunday if the winds play ball might well see that rain pushed further inland

Edited December 18, 2009 by Dingwantssnow

[Snowmad79]

Sunday looks quite interesting, if the wind is in just the right direction we can sometimes be right on target for a streamer! I remember several occasions where this has happened, the Saddleworth and Oldham area can be quite lucky at times. Not saying it will happen this time, but you never know, something to look out for.

Yep it certainlly will be and weve already been very lucky with the Easterly / Neaterly whether that hit us and gave massive 4 inch drifts lol.

[Cheshire Gap]

From roughly 3pm onwards the band of Precipitation intensifies giving more in the way of heavy polonged snow showers for most areas of the north west but a again more so for the western area of the north west such as Western and Southern Cumbria, the western side of lancashire including the coastal areas , northen merseyside and possibly northern parts of cheshire.

This is likely to be the case for the following few hours with Lancashire and southern Cumbria recieving the most notable falls of snow.

By 21:00 sunday evening showers will die out from the north with the ppn concentrated around the Merseyside and greater manchester area with many parts of cheshire barring the far noth of the region missing out. These showers are likely to persist through out the night into monday and its not clear yet wether the lingering band of ppn will intensify.

A very informative forecast there...one which I hope does occur, however, I do not believe post 2100hrs the showers will stop at south manchester, baring in mind they are being pushed in by a potent Northerly, I can see those showers making head way further south 9without being bias to south cheshire) more of an add on to an excellent forecast...

I hope you dont mind, it was by no means a critism

C.G

[Snowmad79]

I hope you dont mind, it was by no means a critism

C.G

Not at all mate, all comments are welcome. However I am pretty confidant becuase if you take my earlier short range forcasts for yesterdays snow showers penetrating west which turned out right even though the likes of IB said they wouldnt and hopefully the forcast i made for tommorrow will turn out as written too. Things can definatly change at short notice though for the good or the bad, we shall see .

Uhm sorry for blowing my own trumpet there btw ! and yes we shouldnt really rule out the overall chances for cheshire

Edited December 18, 2009 by Snowmad79

[Dingwantssnow]

Not at all mate, all comments are welcome. However I am pretty confidant becuase if you take my earlier short range forcasts for yesterdays snow showers penetrating west which turned out right even though the likes of IB said they wouldnt and hopefully the forcast i made for tommorrow will turn out as written too. Things can definatly change at short notice though for the good or the bad, we shall see .

Uhm sorry for blowing my own trumpet there btw ! and yes we shouldnt really rule out the overall chances for cheshire

Would you agree that as the winds shift to NW those showers would also be pushed further eastwards?

[Spurry]

Had a light covering last night which is still around, temp dropped to -3.7c ,today it rose to 2.1c which i find hard to believe as the snow hasn't melted(reckon the reflected sunlight from the house may have distorted the readings either that or one of the cats brushed against my external sensor ), currently back down to -2.7c , reckon we could see -6c here overnight .

The forecast tomorrow and beyond is looking fantastic really , i was worried that we were gonna get rain tommorrow but now it looks as if it will snow after all, and the GFS 12z is promising a cold Xmas at the moment....could this be the best winter i've experienced in 20 yrs in the NW(the previous 28 were in Brum)with snow lying for longer than a few hrs <_<

Edited December 18, 2009 by Spurry

[Cheshire Gap]

Snowmad, sorry bud, didnt get on here to see that...but hey if its that good, I hold my hat off to you!

IB? would those initials also be in relation to a christmas pudding per chance???

If so...well done you my friend!!!

C.G

[Spurry]

lookslike it's gonna be windy and cold on xmas eve here according to Metcheck

2:00 14:59 -2 °c -27 °c 1 0.0 mm 1 % [Wind from WNW (304°)] 304 mph 364 mph [sunny]

15:00 17:59 -2 °c -28 °c 0 0.0 mm 0 % [Wind from WNW (282°)] 282 mph 338 mph [sunny]

18:00 20:59 -7 °c -24 °c 0 0.0 mm 0 % [Wind from WSW (256°)] 256 mph 307 mph [Clear]

21:00 23:59 -7 °c -22 °c 0 0.0 mm 1 % [Wind from SW (232°)] 232 mph 278 mph

[Snowmad79]

Would you agree that as the winds shift to NW those showers would also be pushed further eastwards?

Well tbh, Its the winds vering more westerly that looks to stall the southward progression of the PPN so Id have to agree with you that yes as the winds vere more westerly the showers will be pushed eastward rather than southward. Thats why I was cautious about Cheshire . Will they prep up and intensify as this happens is the questions for me. But I wouldnt worry most parts will see snow in of some form or other sunday through tuesday.

@ CG yes I was reffering to the one and only dreaded Ian bartlett

[Backtrack]

Well tbh, Its the winds vering more westerly that looks to stall the southward progression of the PPN so Id have to agree with you that yes as the winds vere more westerly the showers will be pushed eastward rather than southward. Thats why I was cautious about Cheshire . Will they prep up and intensify as this happens is the questions for me. But I wouldnt worry most parts will see snow in of some form or other sunday through tuesday.

@ CG yes I was reffering to the one and only dreaded Ian bartlett

Would you agree that i will see rain tomorrow rather than snow?

[Snow free zone]

Would you agree that i will see rain tomorrow rather than snow?

Looking at the 12z GFS run, there seems to be some precip arriving before the main band. There is warmer air associated with this 1st area, but the cold air comes with the main band of precip between 21.00 and midnight, anything that falls then will be snow. There is a 100% snow risk and precipitation for the whole area by midnight.

[Snowmad79]

Would you agree that i will see rain tomorrow rather than snow?

Maybe Sleety at first then im pretty sure it would be snow for you. Dont forget when the band of ppn hits it will come with a swathe of -5 to -10 hpa and dew points will tumble to 0 and below so id be very supreised if you dont see some decent snowfall tomorrow mate !.