Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Nick L]

for those of you who know PJB on UKWW, an experienced forecaster clearly, he suggests all the west midlands will receive is a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow.

I simply fail to see how this can be the case though. Surface temperatures certainly will not be a problem. Dewpoints widely at freezing or below throught the precipitation:

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091219;time=06;ext=15;file=ukdew;sess=17946a72c7c832e0abc068ccaed19b2d

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091219;time=06;ext=18;file=ukdew;sess=17946a72c7c832e0abc068ccaed19b2d

Uppers are certainly cold enough, moreso for the north and east:

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091219;time=06;ext=15;file=tmp850;sess=17946a72c7c832e0abc068ccaed19b2d;

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091219;time=06;ext=18;file=tmp850;sess=17946a72c7c832e0abc068ccaed19b2d;

Really makes no sense how some are calling for a wintry mix in this part of the world.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

no white xmas on 6Z sadly, but hope for changes still FI really

[Serendipity]

Oh if anywhere will get rain it will be us!

[MKN]

Camera 916 - Braemore A85 East - http://trafficscotland.org/lev/index.aspx?mi=9&cam=64

Coming this way :(

[azores92]

this is sooo annoying, everything looks to be perfect, ripe for snow conditions, and the beeb are calling this as a wintry mix! why

[we_want_snow]

I'm so confused, annoyed and impatient. I just dunno whats gonna happen here

[Nick L]

It will snow. I am absolutely certain of it. Just relax, radar watch and then keep an eye on your nearest lamp post!

[we_want_snow]

Has anyone got any links to maps and radars??? Thanks

[Bolton67]

local weather station reporting at 10:30 it's still -4

[Nick L]

Has anyone got any links to maps and radars??? Thanks

http://www.metoffice...ather/uk/radar/

http://www.meteox.co...&soort=loop1uur

I would seriously recommend the Netweather one though. Just £3.49 a month for updates every 5 minutes and is much higher resolution than the freebies.

Still -4c here as well, bitterly cold out there. Probably won't get above -2c today, as we get past noon it should start to go down again if the cloud hasn't rolled in.

Edited December 19, 2009 by nick2702

[we_want_snow]

Look at this predicted map

http://null.co.uk/

I'd say I'm in the 0-2cm section. Hoepfully some of that 5-12cm will catch me in Shrewsbury

[Costa Del Fal]

The only places that may see a litle bit more a wintry mix maybe towards tghe very war west of the West Midlands and into Wales but for everywhere else im very sure it will be snow-could be quite heavy as well.

Doesnt like the cheshire gap showers will manage to make it here tomorrow now but could change i suppose.

[azores92]

Doesnt like the cheshire gap showers will manage to make it here tomorrow now but could change i suppose.

west/sw of birmingham is fairly borderline for cheshire gap showers really, but i wouldnt swear by the beeb forecasts for tomorrow, and just do a spot of radar watching! in the past we have done fairly well from cheshire gap streamers, but we are never too far from those blue skies

[we_want_snow]

Why will the far west of the west.mid see wintry mix though. It's still -4 here in Shrewsbury

[Nick L]

Why will the far west of the west.mid see wintry mix though. It's still -4 here in Shrewsbury

The front coming down from Scotland will bring a milder sector on it's western side, most places will see snow but the far west may see rain/sleet at first.

[Costa Del Fal]

Why will the far west of the west.mid see wintry mix though. It's still -4 here in Shrewsbury

Its still quite likely to be snow. The further West you go you will be nearer to slightly less favourable conditions for snow but not bad. The wintry mix is a slight possibility and im still more confident that pretty much everyone will get snow here.

west/sw of birmingham is fairly borderline for cheshire gap showers really, but i wouldnt swear by the beeb forecasts for tomorrow, and just do a spot of radar watching! in the past we have done fairly well from cheshire gap streamers, but we are never too far from those blue skies

Winds might be suitable enough for a time i suppose but then i think showers will be took just north of us after.

[MKN]

http://trafficscotland.org/lev/index.aspx?mi=9&cam=64 - Well took about 15/20mins for the road to be snowed over up in scotland. The only danger imo is the band fizzling out as it goes over the pennines, which has happened a few times in the past with fronts coming down from from scotland.

[azores92]

its the most likely outcome blizzards, but pinpointing anything down for tomorrow at the moment is likely to be a guess, as has been said, a slight tilt in the wind direction and things could look better or worse for us.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking at the winds for tonight-they probably favour here quite well for Cheshire Gap showers from after the front until about 6am when the direction probably takes them away too much. However Showers could form towards NW Wales and blow towards here afterwards aswell i suppose.

Edited December 19, 2009 by Blizzards

[Bolton67]

http://trafficscotla...spx?mi=9&cam=64 - The only danger imo is the band fizzling out as it goes over the pennines,

I still think this will happen.

[Nick L]

Looking at the winds for tonight-they probably favour here quite well for Cheshire Gap showers from after the front until about 6am when the direction probably takes them away too much. However Showers could form towards NW Wales and blow towards here afterwards aswell i suppose.

I think it will be purely be a case of waiting and watching mate. Nobody really knows where the showers are going, just watch the radar and keep everything crossed!

[Costa Del Fal]

its the most likely outcome blizzards, but pinpointing anything down for tomorrow at the moment is likely to be a guess, as has been said, a slight tilt in the wind direction and things could look better or worse for us.

Yep it only takes the slightest change in these set ups.

For those worrying about the Pennines, it could re intensify at some point for all we know! It does look like the Pennines might weaken some Precip for parts of the East but this is only what the charts are showing.

[azores92]

re: tonight, i have decided it is really down to radar watching and keeping an eye on the lamppost. i am sure most will get a period of snow at some point, but its whether it mixes with rain at some point, and whether wet bulbs/dewpoints are conducive to the snow settling. tomorrow is really worth keeping an eye on, because some proper snow could fall for parts of the west midlands, with staffordshire and shropshire most favoured. good luck to all anyway, and may we all wake up to a winter wonderland!

[we_want_snow]

Shropshire most favoured. I really hope so, thanks for the good luck, back to you in Birmingham.

About this though, does anything support the snow on Sunday, i take it it's showers not a band but does anything support these claims???

[azores92]

Shropshire most favoured. I really hope so, thanks for the good luck, back to you in Birmingham.

About this though, does anything support the snow on Sunday, i take it it's showers not a band but does anything support these claims???

cheers, i just meant for the cheshire gap, that parts of northern shropshire and staffordshire would be more favoured to those showers, as per bbc forecasts, as obviously these areas are closer to the northwestern coasts.