Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[A.J]

A question re NMM model...Where does the raw data come from?....Is it based on GFS?....I've certainly found it a fairly accurate tool in short term forecasting

[NorthantsSnow]

As much as I love you mate, i'm sure your estimate of 7 inches where you live is a wee bit over ambitious :o

If Northants got 5cm which is a few miles down the road from you i'm not sure how you have got another 15cm.

I'll get me ruler out in a bit and give you a more accurate measurement!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

BBC forecasts that I have seen certainly show showers getting into our area.

thats good I only looked at website, will watch 6.25 weather, my max today 1.1C, bits of snow sprinkling still on ground

[Nick L]

Once again the Met Office have conflicting maps and text forecasts. Really is annoying. It says on their text forecast "Risk of longer spells of sleet or snow Tuesday."

However, when you take a look at the map, it suggests nothing of the sort!

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Are they just covering all options?

And yes Mark, definitely showed showers penetrating south, almost reaching Birmingham. Will be interesting radar watching on Sunday.

Edited December 18, 2009 by nick2702

[NorthantsSnow]

Snowing once again in Northampton. Big flakes as well! :o

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z is fantastic, keeps us cold until Xmas at least, has shortwaves floating around in the very cold air, mid next week, still FI so hope we can get lucky with that

If any snow falls over weekend it should be still there Xmas day out of sun, but wait for ecm,

[Costa Del Fal]

The close range maps with the proper detail only go out to about 12pm Sunday right now. The other ones after that wont really show specific detail.

[conor123]

Ive drawn up some pictures for what i think we can expect to see tommorow night & through Sunday in terms of the chesire Gap streamer, have a look.

Id say its quite accurate as i have spend a lot of time on it after carefully following the models and comparing to past North westerlies.

3am:

6am:

9am:

12pm:

3pm:

Then the shwoers will become to far north of the Midlands generally as the winds get to westerly.

[A.J]

Thanks for the above post Conor.....still good for staffs though....over the last 3 years, I've always done well out of CG streamers

[Nick L]

Thanks for the above post Conor.....still good for staffs though....over the last 3 years, I've always done well out of CG streamers

Same here, they are usually pretty potent showers as well, and if the north westerly is as strong as the 6.30pm forecast suggested then we should get a fair few coming through.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thanks for the above post Conor.....still good for staffs though....over the last 3 years, I've always done well out of CG streamers

yeah so have I, 3-5 feb 2003 great, but these dont seem to be coming far enough south, on bbc, going north more towards Leek etc

[conor123]

I think the streamer will start place out in West Shropshire in the morning then move east during the day over Staffordshire by late afternoon then the far noth of the region may keep snow showers going on into the evening.

Not sure as to what will happen tommorow night precipitation wise though, im expecting a wintry mix turning to snow on the back edge.

[azores92]

out of interest conor, how did you get the precip like that? i know its just a projection, so isnt going to be accurate to the mile, but its a good projection at that

[conor123]

out of interest conor, how did you get the precip like that? i know its just a projection, so isnt going to be accurate to the mile, but its a good projection at that

I just looked at the charts then at past radar images from North Westerly's and basically made a guess comparing it to what usually happens from these setups.

The setup reminds me a bit of 2nd March 2006 which gave a few inches here.

[azores92]

I just looked at the charts then at past radar images from North Westerly's and basically made a guess comparing it to what usually happens from these setups.

The setup reminds me a bit of 2nd March 2006 which gave a few inches here.

fair enough, thanks for taking the time and effort doesnt favour my neck of the woods too much(west of birmingham) but i never had high hopes anyway. towns like newcastle under lyme and whitchurch could do well out of this.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

IF THAT WEATHER FRONT TURNS OUT TO BE ''A WINTRY MIX'' ITS PATHETIC. TODAY IT NEVER REALLY ROSE ABOVE 0c AND TONIGHT AS LOW AS -6 , SO ITS STUPID TO EVEN SUGGEST IT. IMO ANYWAY

[A.J]

no need to shout!

[Nick L]

Genelle will be doing the forecast on Midlands Today tonight, surely she can't be any worse than Shefali?

[Costa Del Fal]

Genelle will be doing the forecast on Midlands Today tonight, surely she can't be any worse than Shefali?

Is that technically and legally possible?

[azores92]

Is that technically and legally possible? :lol:

ive only missed it! can someone tell me what the jist was please

[Nick L]

ive only missed it! can someone tell me what the jist was please

Its on now!

[andy_leics22]

You guys are missing out on the great Des Coleman that does the Weather now and then on East Midlands Today

The man is a living legend, his forecasts are awesome and he is really charismatic.

[chapmanraven]

Its -2.4c and falling.

Sky is almost completely clear.

The canal is starting to refreeze.

[Nick L]

Still a poor forecast. Told us nothing we didn't really know and only went out to Sunday 5am. Snow on Saturday night is a cert.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Genelle will be doing the forecast on Midlands Today tonight, surely she can't be any worse than Shefali?

nobody is as bad as Shef! lol, she didnt even mention sunday though, just went to 6am