Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[MKN]

nmm predictions that have been very good lately

[dvdfjojo]

nmm predictions that have been very good lately

the nmm model has been perfect the last couple of days for where the snow will fall - absolutely spot on. I'm due about 0.75cm of snow judging by that and at this late stage, i'd believe that. Just gotta hope that when the breakdown does occur, that that's when we get our proper dumping.

I'm off to Northwich in Cheshire tomorrow afternoon and overnight - perhaps I might get some there

[azores92]

going by the nmm and general forecasts, 2-3cm snow is what being progged for the central west midlands?

[Costa Del Fal]

Still wouldn't get an 'Extreme' weather warning from the Met Office if that happened anywhere other than around London. The snow last night has been made the top news story on the BBC News website. So, that's an 'extreme' weather warning and top story on BBC News, all because of 5-6" of snow near London. Am I the only one who finds all of this totally ridiculous?

I 100% agree. It didnt even need an extreme warning. There was some heavy snow and a bit of wind but nothing like weve never had and certainly not as bad as in February!

[A.J]

I 100% agree. It didnt even need an extreme warning. There was some heavy snow and a bit of wind but nothing like weve never had and certainly not as bad as in February!

London got snow?

Did I miss something?

:lol:

[whitestuff]

Just went out with me ruler to measure snow depth at 2000hrs and it turns out my estimate was bang on. 5cm in Northampton, up to about 8cm in drifts, making it the snowiest December event in this town in 4 years. (Dec 27/28th 2005)

i know i'm a bit jealous because at least you've had some snow, but is the difference between 5 and 8 cm really a drift?

[azores92]

is the difference between 5 and 8 cm really a drift?

come on, this is england we are talking about

[NorthantsSnow]

i know i'm a bit jealous because at least you've had some snow, but is the difference between 5 and 8 cm really a drift?

I suppose it's not really deep enough to be classed as a proper snowdrift or anything, but you know what I mean! Uneven snow with a minimum of 5cm lying.

Edited December 18, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[millzzz]

Woohoo, we're back! I've just seen Rob's latest forecast, he rocks!

[Bolton67]

Quite a day in Northampton. Watching the radar last night was a rollercoaster experience, but by the time I went to bed at 2am I could see it was finally making progress towards us.

Snow must have hit when I was fast asleep from about 3am onwards, becoming moderate around 7am. The snow was continuous until about 9am, at which point it passed through leaving clear skies behind. But still bitterly cold and the sun wasn't able to have much effect on our snow.

Towards the end of the morning the cloud began to pile in again from the NE and around lunchtime the snow showers became heavy and prolonged for a time, topping up our accumulations from earlier in the day.

All in all, a much much better snow event for Northants than I expected. I would estimate around 5cm on the ground here, more where it's drifted and little or no thaw to speak of as of yet. The eastern half of the county has received more significant accumulations, particularly towards Rushden, whereas to the west over Daventry etc there's probably only a dusting at best so we were definitely a county divided today.

As for the Saturday event, I'm not too optimistic about that one. Just ran through the NMM sequence and what happens is, the front seriously starts to weaken from about 6pm onwards. At that time a very narrow band of snow is sat over N England. After this it begins to decay in the middle by the time it reaches the Midlands. The eastern flank deteriorates into almost nothing with the heavier stuff ending up over the north sea, but the western flank particularly towards Wales does seem to hold up better-- which is good news for the west of the region which has largely missed out so far.

Dan.

Believe it or not mate. it started at 5:30 am i was in brixworth at the time and it appeared from nowhere, by 9.am it was mayhem.

Edited December 18, 2009 by Lancs_Northants

[LeeKay]

Evening all.

Down to -4.7°C here now. Some weak ppn just to the north, slowly heading SSW. I may just clip some of that in a hour or so!

[stipey1]

Just seen the BBC East Midlands forecast giving out snow warning for Leicestershire tonight, hoping for more tomorrow night too. Was disappointed last night, curtain twitching the whole night and we didn't get a whiff of the stuff!

[azores92]

Well, it looks like the snow for tomorrow evening into Sunday should leave a 1-2" blanket of snow before being frozen as temps fall away quickly. I'm a little uncertain as to how far these heavy snow showers can make inland as far as Birmingham. Past experience would tell me that there is nothing to be concerned about, Birmingham as well as nearly everywhere esle in the west Midlands will benefit from showers coming off a north westerly airstream via the Chesire gap. However, the GFS precip charts would suggest the showers will make it no further than the north west Midlands.

Will have to wait and see. But whatever happens, at least proper winter weather has arrived!

i wouldnt totally go by gfs precip forecasts, as i think other factors will come into play. as i said earlier, if nmm is right, we could be looking at 2/3cm of snow round here, perhaps a light covering tomorrow night. the cheshire gap may well work its magic

Edited December 18, 2009 by azores92

[Nick L]

Well, it looks like the snow for tomorrow evening into Sunday should leave a 1-2" blanket of snow before being frozen as temps fall away quickly. I'm a little uncertain as to how far these heavy snow showers can make inland as far as Birmingham. Past experience would tell me that there is nothing to be concerned about, Birmingham as well as nearly everywhere esle in the west Midlands will benefit from showers coming off a north westerly airstream via the Chesire gap. However, the GFS precip charts would suggest the showers will make it no further than the north west Midlands.

Will have to wait and see. But whatever happens, at least proper winter weather has arrived!

Cold ramper Rob showed the showers getting well inland on the news at 10 forecast, further south than Birmingham.

[millzzz]

Currently -3.3°C and falling here. Hopefully this will keep us cold enough for tomorrow.

[TEITS]

If anyone in E Midlands is hoping those snow showers around the wash will reach them then I doubt it at the moment. Im not entirely sure they will even reach me.

Anyway here is a pic of my snow this afternoon.

Just a quick word about tomorrow nights snow.

In the past I have seen cold fronts fragment into nothing but I have also seen them reintensify as they have moved S. So to be honest it could be anything between 1cm-15cm. The GFS indicates around 3-5hrs of snow though!

At the moment its -4C here.

Edited December 18, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[mackerel sky]

I suppose it's not really deep enough to be classed as a proper snowdrift or anything, but you know what I mean! Uneven snow with a minimum of 5cm lying.

Despite the slow start ended up with 4 inches of snow in this part of Rushden, followed up by a further 2 inches this afternoon. Turned out nicely. Some beautiful snow drifts just south of here on the no man gritting land on the Northants/Beds border when I braved it into Bedford. Bog all literally in Bedford, about an inch. I'm flabergasted by the contrast between work and home. I wouldn't go anywhere here tonight without a big helmet.

A couple of light snow showers this evening 6-7pm. Despite it not getting above freezing all day at home, there was a bit of a slushy base which is now totally frozen - and lethal. Shades of February - but colder - in that instance the media lost interest once it stopped snowing in the southeast. Then we went on to have a cumulative nearly two foot of snow, but being in an overlap region, it of course never received any coverage whatsoever. If (here) we get a good dumping on the higher ground on the watershed tomorrow, we will have a bloody lot of snow cover. Have to go back a long time to remember a decent run up to Christmas like this.

[Nick L]

If anyone in E Midlands is hoping those snow showers around the wash will reach them then I doubt it at the moment. Im not entirely sure they will even reach me.

Anyway here is a pic of my snow this afternoon.

Just a quick word about tomorrow nights snow.

In the past I have seen cold fronts fragment into nothing but I have also seen them reintensify as they have moved S. So to be honest it could be anything between 1cm-15cm. The GFS indicates around 3-5hrs of snow though!

Oh go back to the East Anglia board

Just watched the news 24 forecast by Chris Fawkes, he suggested up to 10cm, and then there was the Cheshire Gap effect during the day feeding in showers. Better than nothing though.

Edited December 18, 2009 by nick2702

[Bolton67]

Even though I'm not a Northamptonian ( many northamptonians do agree) a northerly is not great for this area.

by the time it hits the north midlands and gets here it will be fizzling out.

Anyhow,cannot complain, decent snowfall for Northampton today when we was on the borderline from last nights main band.

[Nick L]

My little weather station is showing -4.5c, my main weather station website is saying -4.2c, either way it's a bit chilly out there!

[Bolton67]

My little weather station is showing -4.5c, my main weather station website is saying -4.2c, either way it's a bit chilly out there!

Agreed. it's bitter here, snow cover making it even colder.

I'd rather have this type of weather in the xmas week build up than mild boring wet south westerly.

[mackerel sky]

Even though I'm not a Northamptonian ( many northamptonians do agree) a northerly is not great for this area.

by the time it hits the north midlands and gets here it will be fizzling out.

Anyhow,cannot complain, decent snowfall for Northampton today when we was on the borderline from last nights main band.

Northerly's are okay east of Wellingborough just about... it goes wrong where you get the kink in the Nene and the A45. But much better with an easterly component. Northampton is too far inland to get anything in a bog standard northerly and here 15 miles east we might only catch the dregs of showers from Lincs and Rutland.

Agreed. it's bitter here, snow cover making it even colder.

I'd rather have this type of weather in the xmas week build up than mild boring wet south westerly.

A surprisingly mild feeling -4C here at the moment. Maybes thats just because the wind has dropped and the moisture has gone out the air. Amazing that the snow is still lovely and soft.

[TEITS]

I don't think it will be anything like 3 to 5 hours and we will see it fragment over Northern England but there should be enough left on it to give a some snow to most areas.

At the moment the GFS doesn't suggest this cold front weakening. However as I said earlier nobody really knows what will happen. I've seen cold fronts weaken over N England and then reintensify further S.

[Bolton67]

Northerly's are okay east of Wellingborough just about... it goes wrong where you get the kink in the Nene and the A45. But much better with an easterly component. Northampton is too far inland to get anything in a bog standard northerly and here 15 miles east we might only catch the dregs of showers from Lincs and Rutland.

A surprisingly mild feeling -4C here at the moment. Maybes thats just because the wind has dropped and the moisture has gone out the air. Amazing that the snow is still lovely and soft.

Yes agree.

I remember about 7 years ago a heavy snow front was making its way south, northampton got nothing, east northants got a dusting, while in peterborough they got about 4 inches.

[fordy]

At the moment the GFS doesn't suggest this cold front weakening. However as I said earlier nobody really knows what will happen. I've seen cold fronts weaken over N England and then reintensify further S.

This happens alot during these northerly situations, ive witnessed it many times. It would be sods law if it did. The majority of people posting in this midlands thread have seen the odd flurry or sweet bugger all. For an easterly, although short lived, this has been a very poor cold spell in terms of snow so far for the majority of the midlands. Things may well change for our region over the coming days with a bit of luck.

I feel for those people that have been following this cold spell for a couple of weeks and have been disapointed so far it can be quite frustrating. More eastern regions have done very well from this cold spell, but for the majority of the country its been poor in terms of snowfall. More northern and western areas look like they will get there snow saturday night. Im not overly optimistic for our region though epecially the way things have been going so far.

Edited December 19, 2009 by fordy