Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[drgl]

I disagree, Telford regularly records more rainfall/more days of rainfall than Shrewsbury, and therefore, more snow. It works both ways

Now read what i posted again

Why is it were are forecast near nothing in Shrewsbury then. I'm on the fence at the moment

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/today.asp?zipcode=Shrewsbury

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=sy1&selected=0

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/22

Are they playing cautious or is nothing going to materialise. I'll be watching Genelle on Midlands Today at 6:30 tonight. Perhaps they sacked Shefali after yesterdays forecast!!!

Metcheck said i'd be digging my way out today when i checked on Tuesday. I haven't seen a single flake, it now says sleet on Sunday with a temp of -3.

[andy_leics22]

Is it just me or is anyone else surprised that even though there is a WNW wind on Sunday that according to the GFS snow showers won't make it as far across as Leicestershire and Nottinghamshire?

I have seen snow showers come through the Cheshire gap and reach Leicestershire quite a few times in North Westerlys but the GFS seems to think it will stay bone dry here even though there is a deep low pressure system not far away

[Nick L]

Are they correct though?

Do the charts suggest something new?

I'm not optmistic, but I'll keep hoping

I am only a complete amateur, but I will give a forecast a go.

The high resolution NMM model from Netweather (using the Lite subscription, would highly recommend it for the winter months) only goes out to 6pm tomorrow evening, but shows this:

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=nwm;date=20091218;time=06;ext=36;file=nmmukprate;sess=fb71f08438db6eb6e9985f841bc08fe4;

That is moving southwards, but quite quickly. However, it is pretty intense, and showers will probably follow on behind. This is what the GFS is showing:

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091218/12/33/ukprec.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091218/12/36/ukprec.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091218/12/39/ukprec.png

The vast majority of that will be snow for the Midlands. Perhaps a bit more marginal towards the south-west of the region though. Most place should see a few hours of snowfall during Saturday evening/early hours Sunday. Then as we get into Sunday it will simply be a case of radar watching and looking out your window.

[we_want_snow]

How an the BBC put this, which is fab but then say I'm not having any snow.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/22

Sat-Sun looks good with the and intensifying over Birmingham. Then the showers on Sunday and look at Tuesday. I hope this happens

[andy_leics22]

I am only a complete amateur, but I will give a forecast a go.

The high resolution NMM model from Netweather (using the Lite subscription, would highly recommend it for the winter months) only goes out to 6pm tomorrow evening, but shows this:

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=nwm;date=20091218;time=06;ext=36;file=nmmukprate;sess=fb71f08438db6eb6e9985f841bc08fe4;

That is moving southwards, but quite quickly. However, it is pretty intense, and showers will probably follow on behind. This is what the GFS is showing:

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091218/12/33/ukprec.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091218/12/36/ukprec.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091218/12/39/ukprec.png

The vast majority of that will be snow for the Midlands. Perhaps a bit more marginal towards the south-west of the region though. Most place should see a few hours of snowfall during Saturday evening/early hours Sunday. Then as we get into Sunday it will simply be a case of radar watching and looking out your window.

Notice how it splits just over Cannock? :blush: :blush:

[Nick L]

Notice how it splits just over Cannock?

Shut it Andy :blush:

[MKN]

Is it just me or is anyone else surprised that even though there is a WNW wind on Sunday that according to the GFS snow showers won't make it as far across as Leicestershire and Nottinghamshire?

I have seen snow showers come through the Cheshire gap and reach Leicestershire quite a few times in North Westerlys but the GFS seems to think it will stay bone dry here even though there is a deep low pressure system not far away :blush:

we'll miss it 5miles to the west this time :blush:

[andy_leics22]

we'll miss it 5miles to the west this time

:blush: :blush:

[chapmanraven]

we'll miss it 5miles to the west this time :blush:

NO no noooooooooo. Not again. I can't take it :blush:

[A.J]

:blush: :blush:

Dont worry Andy.....I'll make sure I post lots of snow-piccies from the West Midlands for you to drool over...

[azores92]

Dont worry Andy.....I'll make sure I post lots of snow-piccies from the West Midlands for you to drool over...:blush:

5-12cm possible in parts of salop and herefs through the weekend if null is to be believed, otherwise 2-5cm more generally.

[we_want_snow]

5-12cm possible in parts of salop and herefs through the weekend if null is to be believed, otherwise 2-5cm more generally.

Can you give a link please?

[A.J]

5-12cm possible in parts of salop and herefs through the weekend if null is to be believed, otherwise 2-5cm more generally.

yes, some good potential there for our neck of the woods both from frontal ppn tomorrow night and a possible cheshire gap streamer on sunday...I'm intrigued by the 12z run...some possibilities heading towards christmas day with ppn over SW'ern parts edging towards the midlands, GFS suggesting ppn turning to snow the further inland and north one is

[azores92]

Can you give a link please?

www.null.co.uk , i wouldnt be too sure on these totals though in all honesty.

[frozencamel]

Is it just me or is anyone else surprised that even though there is a WNW wind on Sunday that according to the GFS snow showers won't make it as far across as Leicestershire and Nottinghamshire?

I have seen snow showers come through the Cheshire gap and reach Leicestershire quite a few times in North Westerlys but the GFS seems to think it will stay bone dry here even though there is a deep low pressure system not far away

I think both counties have been fairly unlucky with this easterly for snow. The showers either just missed us or died out the further inland they came and never made it.

Not seen a single flake today <_<

[Nick L]

yes, some good potential there for our neck of the woods both from frontal ppn tomorrow night and a possible cheshire gap streamer on sunday...I'm intrigued by the 12z run...some possibilities heading towards christmas day with ppn over SW'ern parts edging towards the midlands, GFS suggesting ppn turning to snow the further inland and north one is

The great thing about those types of situations is that we are usually south enough to be within the precipitation, but not so far south that we are out of the cold air. But any snow that falls on Sunday will stick around for a while that's for sure.

[mackerel sky]

Ice becoming a real problem here, people's back ends are going as they try to navigate the roundabout outside our house. Also got a leaky guttering which is spawning a mammoth 3 foot icicle... better make sure I don't stand under that when I go for a fag. Still looks like the chance of a few more showers tonight. If we get a snow event here over the weekend, then we will be upto February's standard of a foot i'd imagine.

Ho-ho-ho!

[Potent Gust]

Right guys, plenty to look forward to over the coming days for us in the Midlands. Quiet tonight, but what could be interesting is how low the temps may get tonight. What do you reckon?

[frozencamel]

Right guys, plenty to look forward to over the coming days for us in the Midlands. Quiet tonight, but what could be interesting is how low the temps may get tonight. What do you reckon?

I reckon on -5 for north Nottingham.

[we_want_snow]

I'm going with -5/-6/-7 for Shrewsbury, it's already -3 and I'm not expecting it to cloud over. It certainly seems one of the coldest I can remember in recent times

[NorthantsSnow]

Quite a day in Northampton. Watching the radar last night was a rollercoaster experience, but by the time I went to bed at 2am I could see it was finally making progress towards us.

Snow must have hit when I was fast asleep from about 3am onwards, becoming moderate around 7am. The snow was continuous until about 9am, at which point it passed through leaving clear skies behind. But still bitterly cold and the sun wasn't able to have much effect on our snow.

Towards the end of the morning the cloud began to pile in again from the NE and around lunchtime the snow showers became heavy and prolonged for a time, topping up our accumulations from earlier in the day.

All in all, a much much better snow event for Northants than I expected. I would estimate around 5cm on the ground here, more where it's drifted and little or no thaw to speak of as of yet. The eastern half of the county has received more significant accumulations, particularly towards Rushden, whereas to the west over Daventry etc there's probably only a dusting at best so we were definitely a county divided today.

As for the Saturday event, I'm not too optimistic about that one. Just ran through the NMM sequence and what happens is, the front seriously starts to weaken from about 6pm onwards. At that time a very narrow band of snow is sat over N England. After this it begins to decay in the middle by the time it reaches the Midlands. The eastern flank deteriorates into almost nothing with the heavier stuff ending up over the north sea, but the western flank particularly towards Wales does seem to hold up better-- which is good news for the west of the region which has largely missed out so far.

Dan.

[we_want_snow]

Metoffice are forecasting heavy rain for Shrewsbury on Saturday night at -5c, have they gone completely mad. Surely snow. What do you think???

[andy_leics22]

Ice becoming a real problem here, people's back ends are going as they try to navigate the roundabout outside our house. Also got a leaky guttering which is spawning a mammoth 3 foot icicle... better make sure I don't stand under that when I go for a fag. Still looks like the chance of a few more showers tonight. If we get a snow event here over the weekend, then we will be upto February's standard of a foot i'd imagine.

Ho-ho-ho!

As much as I love you mate, i'm sure your estimate of 7 inches where you live is a wee bit over ambitious

If Northants got 5cm which is a few miles down the road from you i'm not sure how you have got another 15cm.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sunday has to be ideal set up for frequent heavy snow showers, bbc not having it, meto have yellow warning for W midlands, tomorrow nights band very slim and weak i feel

[Nick L]

Sunday has to be ideal set up for frequent heavy snow showers, bbc not having it, meto have yellow warning for W midlands, tomorrow nights band very slim and weak i feel

BBC forecasts that I have seen certainly show showers getting into our area.