Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

Seriously, why does anyone on here watch the BBC National & Local forecasts??.....They are designed to be watched by the masses who generally only want a rough idea of what the weather might be like the next day....They're vague at best but thats what they're designed to be!....It always gives me a chuckle seeing people taking these forecasts as gospel and getting all upset if they're not under a snow graphic!

Lol i have the same thoughts as you. Snow is very likely tomorrow across much if not all of the West Midlands region. Wales may see a slighlty more wintry mix but conditions should be fine for snow. The BBC graphics are hardly accurate especially with showers and they change very often so i never take much notice in them.

[andy_leics22]

Well if its all going to be rain and drizzle, then I think its only fair that it misses hinckley, just as the snow did. If however its going to be snow then its more than welcome.

If the Precip arrives in Hinckley tomorrow night as i'm fully expecting it to then it will be snow. Not rain, not sleet but snow. The models show that in Leicester and Leicestershire tomorrow night when the band comes down from the North the upper air temps are going to be around -7 and ground temps -1. Now if that falls as rain I will hand over the keys to our house to the entire Netweather forum so they can steal our stuff

Thats how confident I am it won't be rain or sleet.

[chapmanraven]

Seriously, why does anyone on here watch the BBC National & Local forecasts??.....They are designed to be watched by the masses who generally only want a rough idea of what the weather might be like the next day....They're vague at best but thats what they're designed to be!....It always gives me a chuckle seeing people taking these forecasts as gospel and getting all upset if they're not under a snow graphic!

Because there are some of us who don't really understand the models and charts etc. (me) and are trying to get as much info as poss. We enjoy getting excited when everyone agrees its going to snow and then equally enjoy being fed up and saying what rubbish the forecast is when they get it wrong

Edited December 18, 2009 by chapmanraven

[NorthantsSnow]

Seriously, why does anyone on here watch the BBC National & Local forecasts??.....They are designed to be watched by the masses who generally only want a rough idea of what the weather might be like the next day....They're vague at best but thats what they're designed to be!....It always gives me a chuckle seeing people taking these forecasts as gospel and getting all upset if they're not under a snow graphic!

I would argue they were extremely accurate yesterday & today. Long live the BBC forecasts!

Designed for the masses yes but must see for enthusiasts as well especially during cold spells. They have access to more data than us, and are forecasting professionals. 99% of NW members are amateurs and the tools even on NW Extra are just the tip of the iceberg.

So let's not underestimate the BBC and the quality of the weather forecasts they produce. I think they do a wonderful job.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

may see a sprinkling tomorrow morning? just a few snow showers due to the NW of the region

[dvdfjojo]

Wonder if Rob McElwee will do the BBC one again tonight - hope so!!!!!

[Nick L]

If the Precip arrives in Hinckley tomorrow night as i'm fully expecting it to then it will be snow. Not rain, not sleet but snow. The models show that in Leicester and Leicestershire tomorrow night when the band comes down from the North the upper air temps are going to be around -7 and ground temps -1. Now if that falls as rain I will hand over the keys to our house to the entire Netweather forum so they can steal our stuff

Thats how confident I am it won't be rain or sleet.

Reckon you will have enough snow to perform your forfeit?

[snowmadchrisuk]

If the Precip arrives in Hinckley tomorrow night as i'm fully expecting it to then it will be snow. Not rain, not sleet but snow. The models show that in Leicester and Leicestershire tomorrow night when the band comes down from the North the upper air temps are going to be around -7 and ground temps -1. Now if that falls as rain I will hand over the keys to our house to the entire Netweather forum so they can steal our stuff

Thats how confident I am it won't be rain or sleet.

This is the Way GFS see's it for Saturday night , 99% snow for the Midlands, Blackpool , Manchester and Northern Ireland sort of areas may see a spell of Rain/Freezing rain first , but this looks to turn to snow very quickly . I expect in most places this will be an all Snow event . Temps are -2 widely . In Leicester Wet bulb temps stay below freezing , due points range from -1 to -6 as the night goes on.

[NorthantsSnow]

But have they lost the plot? What is telling them it's rain not snow.

The mild sector over your region as the front passes through, presumably.

http://209.197.11.168/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091218/12/33/h850t850eu.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0f36092b441dd391444dd3c19588d89e444dd3f2&dopsig=cf183343cc5473a979c4412bb6be04f2

But to be honest, I've seen snow fall at those kind of upper temps before. Cold is entrenched now so I'm not expecting the mild sector to cause too many problems especially with renewed colder air tucking in behind.

Backedge snow at least for everyone.

[A.J]

I would argue they were extremely accurate yesterday & today. Long live the BBC forecasts!

Designed for the masses yes but must see for enthusiasts as well especially during cold spells. They have access to more data than us, and are forecasting professionals. 99% of NW members are amateurs and the tools even on NW Extra are just the tip of the iceberg.

So let's not underestimate the BBC and the quality of the weather forecasts they produce. I think they do a wonderful job.

I'm not underestimating the beeb....their forecasts are deliberatley vague, so the layman doesn't get confused, but should not be taken as a given.....Yes, there are always new people joining this forum and as a starting point there are some fantastic guides in the 'Learning Area'...My point is more directed at the more experienced members on this forum, who get the hump when a graphic isnt overhead on their location...They should know better!

[chapmanraven]

If the Precip arrives in Hinckley tomorrow night as i'm fully expecting it to then it will be snow. Not rain, not sleet but snow. The models show that in Leicester and Leicestershire tomorrow night when the band comes down from the North the upper air temps are going to be around -7 and ground temps -1. Now if that falls as rain I will hand over the keys to our house to the entire Netweather forum so they can steal our stuff

Thats how confident I am it won't be rain or sleet.

Just what I wanted to hear.....Oh I mean the snow not that its open house for free christmas shopping at your house.

[NorthantsSnow]

Wonder if Rob McElwee will do the BBC one again tonight - hope so!!!!!

Yep-- can confirm Rob is on the late shift once again and will front the BBC national weather at 10:30pm.

[we_want_snow]

Think like this...

Forecast rain/sleet and we get snow

Forecast snow and we get rain

I know which we'd all prefer. In an ideal world, they'd be spot on, but it's not

[andy_leics22]

I would argue they were extremely accurate yesterday & today. Long live the BBC forecasts!

Designed for the masses yes but must see for enthusiasts as well especially during cold spells. They have access to more data than us, and are forecasting professionals. 99% of NW members are amateurs and the tools even on NW Extra are just the tip of the iceberg.

So let's not underestimate the BBC and the quality of the weather forecasts they produce. I think they do a wonderful job.

But saying it's going to rain or sleet tomorrow night in the West Midlands when ground temps are around 0 and there is -5 to -7 850temps in that region at the time then surely that is a crap forecast no?

[cyclonic happiness]

Freezing rain would be very dangerous as it would wash any salt away from road surfaces then freeze, like we saw in brum in...2004 was it?

Well that event was madness, we went from heavy rain that had been falling all day with temps of 4-5'c to extremely heavy snow and temps of -2'c within half an hour!!!

[Nick L]

Yep-- can confirm Rob is on the late shift once again and will front the BBC national weather at 10:30pm.

Get in :lol:

[andy_leics22]

Reckon you will have enough snow to perform your forfeit? :lol:

Highly doubtful :lol:

Only got a dusting today, not even 1cm to be honest. So tomorrow night is going to have to deliver 3 inches+ for me to do that, there is no way that poxy little band will deliver that. I'll be lucky to see an inch of snow from it.

[NorthantsSnow]

CNN European weather coming up in a few minutes focussing on the Eurosnow situation and potential as we head through the weekend.

Watch on Freeview channel 84, Sky 506, Virgin 607. :lol:

[we_want_snow]

C'mon Rob, don't tease us this time, deliver us a great snowy foecast and be our saviour

[NorthantsSnow]

But saying it's going to rain or sleet tomorrow night in the West Midlands when ground temps are around 0 and there is -5 to -7 850temps in that region at the time then surely that is a crap forecast no?

Dunno! I'll get back to you tomorrow. :lol:

CNN forecast saying 1-4cm only from that front. Sounds about right to be honest, perhaps a touch conservative.

[A.J]

To get everyone in the mood, I looked into my crystal ball, and saw this image for the Midlands at 9am Sunday morning!

All apart from poor old Andy_Leics, he will wake up sunday morning and see this on his front driveway| :lol:

[azores92]

To get everyone in the mood, I looked into my crystal ball, and saw this image for the Midlands at 9am Sunday morning!

All apart from poor old Andy_Leics, he will wake up sunday morning and see this on his front driveway|

ah yes that'll be the midlands alright, the canadian midlands....

Edited December 18, 2009 by azores92

[NorthantsSnow]

Just went out with me ruler to measure snow depth at 2000hrs and it turns out my estimate was bang on. 5cm in Northampton, up to about 8cm in drifts, making it the snowiest December event in this town in 4 years. (Dec 27/28th 2005)

Edited December 18, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[MKN]

the nmm model is shocking in terms of precip tomoz for us

[NorthantsSnow]

the nmm model is shocking in terms of precip tomoz for us

It may change, especially since it conflicts with the GFS and UKMO. Remember the NMM is showing a projection just like any other model.