Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

Write the GFS model off at your peril...At the moment (and for the past few runs) its been at loggerheads with ECM/UKMO et al, suggesting they're correct and its wrong, but the GFS Runs could be bang on the mark, and the fallout would be biggest virtual suicide an internet forum has ever seen!!!

I would be absoloutely stunned if the GFS was right when it was against pretty much every other model. A very odd and annoying situation!

[NorthantsSnow]

I would be absoloutely stunned if the GFS was right when it was against pretty much every other model. A very odd and annoying situation!

Very peculiar Blizzards. I cannot think of any other example of such a large scale disagreement this close to a potential event. It is almost Monday now and this event begins Tuesday and still the GFS paints a vastly different picture to the rest.

00z output simply must settle this. And I would put my money on the GFS backing down purely because every other model I've seen disagrees with it!

[Nick L]

Either the GFS is going to lose a massive amount of credibility or every single other model out there is. Really is ridiculous the difference at such a short time range.

[NorthantsSnow]

Either the GFS is going to lose a massive amount of credibility or every single other model out there is. Really is ridiculous the difference at such a short time range.

It's fairly unprecedented to be fair. An odd situation and one that will give forecasters headaches. They can't skirt around Tuesday's potentially severe event much longer, people need detail.

[azores92]

It's fairly unprecedented to be fair. An odd situation and one that will give forecasters headaches. They can't skirt around Tuesday's potentially severe event much longer, people need detail.

whats concerning to me is that sleet is forecast on wednesday, which means that if snow does fall on tuesday, it would all wash away 24 hours later anyway?

[Nick L]

It's fairly unprecedented to be fair. An odd situation and one that will give forecasters headaches. They can't skirt around Tuesday's potentially severe event much longer, people need detail.

If it isn't snow then somewhere will get floods. Whatever happens this could be a very disruptive event, unless of course it completely misses us and goes through the Channel. I imagine there is a lot of sweating going on at Met Office HQ.

[cyclonic happiness]

I really do think the 18z and the gfs from the last fews days, should be binned, there's just no consistancy when comparing runs, it's all over the place, no trends, just chaos.

[we_want_snow]

http://null.co.uk/?page_id=2

Now 60% for West Mids

[Supercell]

I think that at the time of the 12zs tomorrow the GFS and the other models will have to join forces and agree (roughly) on the positioning of that low. This can't carry on with the sort of discrepencies we're seeing. They're massive not just in the short term, but in the implications for further on too.

[andy_leics22]

The GFS will just not back down lol. I really don't see a foot of snow for anywhere in the Wales apart from the highest parts like top of Brecon Beacons or Snowdonia. GFS for us Midlanders is bad bad viewing, the UKMO looks better though, UKMO still doesen't look that good though, 528 dam line well far North, around Scottish borders.

[Rommy]

this realli close stuff for coventry the met office, metcheck and bbc showing heavy snowfall all day but the TWO on the other hand heavy rain!!!

[butler_son]

Just so long as it doesn't stop me getting up to Nottingham at any time, I'll be happy. And just so long as I actually see some snow - you may not realise that the county of Dorset barely had any snow...

[azores92]

this realli close stuff for coventry the met office, metcheck and bbc showing heavy snowfall all day but the TWO on the other hand heavy rain!!!

thats because TWO uses GFS data, so it would have the projections based on the 18z, which is getting a lot of criticism tonight. ps: the latest bbc forecast showed snow across the midlands on weds.

[NorthantsSnow]

The GFS will just not back down lol. I really don't see a foot of snow for anywhere in the Wales apart from the highest parts like top of Brecon Beacons or Snowdonia. GFS for us Midlanders is bad bad viewing, the UKMO looks better though, UKMO still doesen't look that good though, 528 dam line well far North, around Scottish borders.

The 528 DAM line is not too important in this kind of frontal setup. It is possible for snow to fall up to 540 DAM in some situations.

What's more important is the 1000-850mb thickness line which ideally needs to be below 1293.

[Rommy]

thats because TWO uses GFS data, so it would have the projections based on the 18z, which is getting a lot of criticism tonight. ps: the latest bbc forecast showed snow across the midlands on weds.

i see but im hoping tuesday event comes off wld get to see some serious snowfall which i havent seen to date is ma short life!

[03jtrickey]

I thought this would be resolved by now! Forecaster's nightmare - sometimes I think we have too much data available. Very odd having such disagreement: GFS vs every other model. The outcome will either make or destroy at least my opinion of the GFS's credibility!

[stevomatt]

I thought this would be resolved by now! Forecaster's nightmare - sometimes I think we have too much data available. Very odd having such disagreement: GFS vs every other model. The outcome will either make or destroy at least my opinion of the GFS's credibility!

hi guys,

is it likely that NORTHANTS gets any snow from this event --- if so do you know how much

Thanks

[Nick L]

hi guys,

is it likely that NORTHANTS gets any snow from this event --- if so do you know how much

Thanks

Unlikely, unless there is a substantial and last minute shift southwards then it will mostly be rain, to begin with at least anyway, could turn a bit more wintry later.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

18z ukmo run has the the low to the SW running up the Irish sea,scrub the snow event of gfs/18z ukmo are right!! :lol:

[Nick L]

Rob really didn't go into too much detail on the evening news. But they are going to have to go for it soon, the event is just 36 hours away.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I think we should follow the fax charts for the moment and the 0z runs in the morning Harold rather than listening to your panicky one liners.

huh? :lol:

[i love snow]

i been reading alot on this for tuesday/wednesday and im quite confident that here in heath hayes (cannock)i will see quite abit off snow! well im defo hoping anyway :lol:

[high ground birmingham]

Well this is what I think will happen with regard to tomorrow night through Tuesday:

The precipitation from the low will enter the South Midlands early Tuesday hours around 1am with a narrow front edge of the band being snow. So for the South Midlands (like Gloucester, Cheltenham, South Worcs and South Warks), there will be around an hour of snow which would probably give 2-3cm of snow. This will then turn to rain quickly melting the snow on Tuesday morning

The low will move north and enter the Birmingham area around 2.30-3am, the narrow edge of snow now being a bit wider as it encounters more of the colder air and so I would say 2-3 hours of snow for the West Midlands area (Bham, Wolverhampton, Coventry) and Leicestershire. This will give around 5cm of snow. However this will also turn back to rain with a quick melt ensuing.

The front edge of the snow will be more wider for the North Midlands (Stoke on Trent, Stafford, Shropshire, Derby, Notts etc) and so there will probably be around 4-5 hours of snow giving around 7-9 cms of snow. This too will turn to rain as the milder air pushes further north.

So the best place in our region will be the North Midlands.

Regards, hgb

[lesta_snow]

I love snow and cold but I really don't need this lol I need to go Portugal on Saturday so I could really do without this cold spell 'till I get back lol so I really hope it doesn't snow on Tuesday even though i'd LOVE for it to snow on Tuesday if i wasn't going Portugal. Can anyone tell me the weather for Faro Portugal on Saturday?

[azores92]

look at the 00z at your peril folks. ukmo has sided with gfs and put this weather front further north. despite what the MO website says, the beeb are implying the band will be a wintry mix, and will only give a brief period of snow before it all turns back to rain. ecm and gme, both respectable models, put the low further south, having better results, but meaning the precip is much lighter across the midlands. not looking brilliant for tomorrow i have to say guys