North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just picking up on a couple of posts in the Scotland thread, as they make a similar observation to one I've come across. If you want falling and lying snow, while -6C 850hPa is often a useful threshold value, if you want to see it out to the coast despite a strong onshore wind, it preferably needs to fall below -8C, otherwise we get a wintry mix (as today has demonstrated pretty well).

GFS 12Z has the -8C line covering the region at 3pm so still pretty marginal near the coast:

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20100102;time=12;ext=03;file=tmp850;sess=d894f1d56b7fdcb3af1818af14eaba66;

...but by 6pm, the -10C line is on top of us:

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20100102;time=12;ext=06;file=tmp850;sess=542b9c823d3789c0d2872360e7c62674;

...so should stop being marginal.

[Cloud 10]

New warning out for us from the met office.

North East England: Darlington Durham Hartlepool Middlesbrough Northumberland Redcar + Cleveland Stockton-on-Tees Tyne + Wear Widespread Icy Roads & Heavy Snow 1600 Sat 2 1100 Sun 3 Outbreaks of sleet or snow will spread southwards through the rest of Saturday and be followed by further snow showers through the evening and into early Sunday. Accumulations of 3 to 6 cm are likely in many parts, with around 10 cm likely in places, chiefly over high ground. Widespread is likely to form on untreated surfaces.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1445 Sat 2 Jan

[Snowstorm1]

New warning out for us from the met office.

North East England: Darlington Durham Hartlepool Middlesbrough Northumberland Redcar + Cleveland Stockton-on-Tees Tyne + Wear Widespread Icy Roads & Heavy Snow 1600 Sat 2 1100 Sun 3 Outbreaks of sleet or snow will spread southwards through the rest of Saturday and be followed by further snow showers through the evening and into early Sunday. Accumulations of 3 to 6 cm are likely in many parts, with around 10 cm likely in places, chiefly over high ground. Widespread is likely to form on untreated surfaces.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1445 Sat 2 Jan

I would bank that now coz the ground is wet and 15minuites of rain washed it away and the snow which is still falling hasnt layed!

[Alex95]

Final depth this afternoon is 7cm, but that's 4cm less than this time yesterday The thaw has ceased completely now with a couple of light graupel showers. Still I'm not moaning since 3 inches have survived and this covering should be topped up nicely in the coming week. I'm a bit sceptical about this evening as the showers predicted to hit us don't exist yet.

My take on things is that tomorrow will be drier, but Tues - Thurs could see further heavy snow, so what will happen on Monday? To me it looks a bit more favourable for showers than Sunday, especially later on but I really don't know how favourable.

[peterf]

stopped snowing now but the big freeze has now kicked in.

[gazzac69]

clear skys starting to show in byker the slush & remaining snow is starting to freeze, a good sign if the snow shower warnings actually happen. it was a disappointing day periods of rain sleet and snow with melting occuring, lets hope the warnings for tu,we, come true,

cheers gazza

DISAPPOINTING FOR LOW LEVEL AREAS BUT OBVIOUSLY NOT FOR HIGHER GROUND IE CONSETT ETC

Edited January 2, 2010 by gazzac69

[LomondSnowstorm]

Sorry to hear about how marginal it has been down your way - fortunately for you the really cold uppers are starting to move in, so you should have a decent night for snowfall.

[Cloud 10]

Latest satellite picture shows plenty of showers in the eastern north sea which will start to affect us in a few hours time.

Much colder upper air spreading in so all showers will be of snow or hail.

[Freezing-Point]

The GFS charts for tues/wed/thurs are stunning and would surely bring widespread heavy snow to all our region. Looking at the FAX charts over the same time period there are more troughs than on a farm! Chances are superb, but as always the devil is in the detail and we have to wait till literally hours before the event before any certainty can be given for snow.

[peterf]

everything freezing solid now.later snow fall on top will be intersting.

[stormchaser1]

consett pics

nice pics pete

[Snowstorm1]

Alza So school looks more likely to be closed now on tuesday and on another hand can anyone tell me if i should expect a covering tonight and what time are the showers coming?

Edited January 2, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[peterf]

the back roads here now are that bad they will pull your exhaust system off.

very deep spurling tracks.

[Alex95]

Alza So school looks more likely to be closed now on tuesday and on another hand can anyone tell me if i should expect a covering tonight and what time are the showers coming?

School won't be shut here on Tuesday, there's only 3 inches now and the next heavy snow (apart from the small risk tonight) is on Tuesday itself, so the first possibility of that happening is on Wednesday imo as the teachers will wake up on Tuesday and there won't be enough snow lying at that stage. Unless of course there is a METO warning for 30cm and the snow is falling thick and fast at the break of dawn, but I can't see it happening.

And I don't really believe that the showers tonight can bring very much, they're just forming now so by the time they get going properly high pressure will build from the north so an event like yesterday morning looks very unlikely. A dusting would still be welcome though to top up the snow a little

Edited January 2, 2010 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

School won't be shut here on Tuesday, there's only 3 inches now and the next heavy snow (apart from the small risk tonight) is on Tuesday itself, so the first possibility of that happening is on Wednesday imo as the teachers will wake up on Tuesday and there won't be enough snow lying at that stage. Unless of course there is a METO warning for 30cm and the snow is falling thick and fast at the break of dawn, but I can't see it happening.

And I don't really believe that the showers tonight can bring very much, they're just forming now so by the time they get going properly high pressure will build from the north so an event like yesterday morning looks very unlikely. A dusting would still be welcome though to top up the snow a little

Damn so I wond see any snow covering now till tuesday

[izi]

still a thaw going on here.

1.4oC

[Alex95]

still a thaw going on here.

1.4oC

Very strange, 0.3ºC here and the car has started to ice up! Surely the actual temperature lies somewhere in between for both of us, the car has definitely started to freeze.

Edited January 2, 2010 by alza

[izi]

yeah i think i have had some wierd microclimate all day today. its sopping wet outside with out anything looking frosty and we are only a mile apart, weird!

[Freezing-Point]

Temperature is now falling. Its now 0.2c here and i think the colder air is starting to hit now. You can see the shower activity is sinking south and they are starting to form in the sea to the east of us. Let hope the intensity increases as they get here, although the ones to the north do look quite good anyway.

Have a look at the traffic cam around the Jedburgh area.......My link

[Alex95]

yeah i think i have had some wierd microclimate all day today. its sopping wet outside with out anything looking frosty and we are only a mile apart, weird!

I've noticed a lot of differences during this cold spell, like on the 19th of Dec when you got a couple of inches whilst here there was over 3! Reports are all authentic I think, I drove through Gosforth just after that event and there was much less that here! I think my altitude of 80m or so helps though, more snow is left in High Heaton as opposed to down the road in Heaton. Of course both Gosforth and Heaton are busier than High Heaton so a slightly stronger heat island effect could be taking place there, if you take that into account as well as my slightly higher alitude there could easily be a 0.5-1ºC difference in temperature, and that can make all the difference in situations like this

[Freezing-Point]

I've noticed a lot of differences during this cold spell, like on the 19th of Dec when you got a couple of inches whilst here there was over 3! Reports are all authentic I think, I drove through Gosforth just after that event and there was much less that here! I think my altitude of 80m or so helps though, more snow is left in High Heaton as opposed to down the road in Heaton. Of course both Gosforth and Heaton are busier than High Heaton so a slightly stronger heat island effect could be taking place there, if you take that into account as well as my slightly higher alitude there could easily be a 0.5-1ºC difference in temperature, and that can make all the difference in situations like this

Very true. I remember once (about 10 years back) there was barely a covering of snow on Gosforth high st. and just up the road in kenton there was 3-4 inches, and thats at the bottom of Kenton road.

Edited January 2, 2010 by Freezing-Point

[gazzac69]

I've noticed a lot of differences during this cold spell, like on the 19th of Dec when you got a couple of inches whilst here there was over 3! Reports are all authentic I think, I drove through Gosforth just after that event and there was much less that here! I think my altitude of 80m or so helps though, more snow is left in High Heaton as opposed to down the road in Heaton. Of course both Gosforth and Heaton are busier than High Heaton so a slightly stronger heat island effect could be taking place there, if you take that into account as well as my slightly higher alitude there could easily be a 0.5-1ºC difference in temperature, and that can make all the difference in situations like this

just looked in back garden all the slush etc has now frozen, I live in byker quite close to river so very low lying

,had a small hail shower 15 mins ago,

netweather radar showing some promising looking stuff starting to show out to sea just come into radars range - theres hope yet

[Snowstorm1]

Am I too far south for those showers tonight?

[peterf]

block ice up here now.

[izi]

I've noticed a lot of differences during this cold spell, like on the 19th of Dec when you got a couple of inches whilst here there was over 3! Reports are all authentic I think, I drove through Gosforth just after that event and there was much less that here! I think my altitude of 80m or so helps though, more snow is left in High Heaton as opposed to down the road in Heaton. Of course both Gosforth and Heaton are busier than High Heaton so a slightly stronger heat island effect could be taking place there, if you take that into account as well as my slightly higher alitude there could easily be a 0.5-1ºC difference in temperature, and that can make all the difference in situations like this

this could well be true. i remember learning about microclimates and never really thought about how small a distancce and elevation can make to weather conditions.

temp still 1.1 here.