Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[we_want_snow]

Now -3.3c here, it's awfully cold out there. I don't reckon it'll drop as rapidly anymore as the sun's long gone. I'm definately thinking -7/-8 tonight. My best achieevment this winter is an ice day, not the pathetic lack of snow we've had

[jukebox]

This one jukebox?

http://cache.netweat.../fax/PPVJ89.png

yeah thats the one Nick How would I post that as a link and I presume these charts are available on NW as i use wetterzentrale. Thanks again mate.

[Nick L]

yeah thats the one Nick How would I post that as a link and I presume these charts are available on NW as i use wetterzentrale. Thanks again mate.

No problem, as azores92 said your analysis was pretty much spot on.

Right click the image you want, click "properties" and there should be a hyperlink that you can copy in the box that comes up.

[kano1990]

just watched the last bbc news 24 forecast and they are saying more than a dusting for us

[jukebox]

pretty much spot on there it shows a fairly slack airflow, so the showers wont be very widespread

Thanks Azores I always sort of had an inkling as to reading them but to start posting on a weather site without being 100% sure of your interpretations has always been intimidating for me as a lot of people seem to interpret them in differrent ways to suit themselves rather than as a general interpretation for the whole country and I dont wanna be shot to pieces for reading them as they are lol. Just another quick one if I may... Do you then use the precipatation charts to build a bigger picture of the upcoming weather events or are these not much use??? I understand that there are other charts aswell and I,m going to try to get my head round these in the coming days. cheers again

[berometer]

I'ts allready very cold here the windows are iced over and it looks like we have had some very light parcipitation but I think it was sleet. Could get low as minus 6 here according to our local website.

[jukebox]

No problem, as azores92 said your analysis was pretty much spot on.

Right click the image you want, click "properties" and there should be a hyperlink that you can copy in the box that comes up.

Thanks again Nick I,ll be picking yours and Azores brains over the coming weeks to make sure I am doing it right if thats ok with you both???

[azores92]

Thanks again Nick I,ll be picking yours and Azores brains over the coming weeks to make sure I am doing it right if thats ok with you both???

haha no problem

Thanks Azores I always sort of had an inkling as to reading them but to start posting on a weather site without being 100% sure of your interpretations has always been intimidating for me as a lot of people seem to interpret them in differrent ways to suit themselves rather than as a general interpretation for the whole country and I dont wanna be shot to pieces for reading them as they are lol. Just another quick one if I may... Do you then use the precipatation charts to build a bigger picture of the upcoming weather events or are these not much use??? I understand that there are other charts aswell and I,m going to try to get my head round these in the coming days. cheers again

GFS isnt the best model for picking up precipitation, and often doesnt handle convective situations very well. the best models for forecasting precipitation, and what type, are the NAE and NMM models. here are links to both:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=0&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PANEL=0&WMO= ---> NAE

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php ---->NMM

[Nick L]

Thanks again Nick I,ll be picking yours and Azores brains over the coming weeks to make sure I am doing it right if thats ok with you both???

No problem, only really a novice myself but I will help where I can!

[stevomatt]

No problem, only really a novice myself but I will help where I can!

- 3.5 here in wellingborough

i wonder how low it will go... is there snow forecast for the northamptonshire area???

[jukebox]

haha no problem

GFS isnt the best model for picking up precipitation, and often doesnt handle convective situations very well. the best models for forecasting precipitation, and what type, are the NAE and NMM models. here are links to both:

http://www.weatheron...=0&PANEL=0&WMO= ---> NAE

http://www.meteociel...eles/wrfnmm.php ---->NMM

Thankyou Azores these are now bookmarked for future ref.

[Bolton67]

Looks like we all could get a covering from Tuesday, as for the heavy snow later in the week some are going to be happy and some not. the further south and east the better.

could all still change yet.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I noticed in a forecast, not sure which, that the Irish sea could also develope snow. I know the wind directions not ideal but we saw Chesire Gap streamers the other day with this direction of wind. How does this stand for the West Mids???

yes I'm hopeful for cheshire gap showers tomorrow evening, winds seem NW'ly, bbc shows a few reaching the west midlands, hope for an upgrade

meto also giving an upgrade saying perhaps more prolonged snow in places

today good, my snow remains, temp now -3.1C, just missed an ice day, temp 0.6C at midnight

[loopydreamer]

just watched the last bbc news 24 forecast and they are saying more than a dusting for us

here's hoping im not giving up on the possibility that we could get a decent amount of snow! we need some nice snow showers drifting west

[Bolton67]

Good job you weren't posting this morning Andy, there was a discussion on the boundaries of the East Midlands

Read that made me chuckle

Can you imagine if Peterborough was still in Northants, TETIS would be sweating now for the heavy snow

[weather_it_will]

Just seen the BBC forecast and the main snow will be Friday.

[andy_leics22]

Just seen the BBC forecast and the main snow will be Friday.

GFS suggests the main snow will be tuesday night into wednesday morning. Hope the GFS is on the money and the UKMO will fall into line with it.

[jimben]

South east group are going mental with regard to the depth of snow they are expecting Friday/Saturday. I havn't the heart to tell them it will probably shift north by 150 miles and inundate the midlands lol.

[stevomatt]

has anyone got a link to the country file forecast 2day ?

[Serendipity]

I think Tues/Wds could give a decent covering for many parts of the midlands - ok not major disruptive snow but much better than what we have been seeing. The 12z gave hope to us for some more later in the week too, particularly for the south midlands who've not seen much so far.

[berometer]

Bliney just been outside to the bins and they wouldnt open it was that cold. Think we could see some record low minima over the next week.

[Bolton67]

Yeah, a good chance of considerable snowfall from mid Tuesday into Wednesday. As the cold front sinks south across the country this should bring some light-moderate snowfall to the Midlands. I don't think it will be a marginal setup, so everyone should expect snowfall. After this is still uncertain, as a few showers made feed into the Midlands after the main front. Looking further ahead toward the latter part of next week if the strong easterly progged by the GFS materialised, then I would expect some snow showers or bands of snow to make it right across the Midlands, with parts of the south east (especially Kent) taking a beating from snow showers.

Too far out at this stage to be discussing snow potential for Thursday or Friday so for now we should be focused on mid afternoon Tuesday into the early hours of Wednesday.

Some are saying the cold front coming down is slow moving! even better !

[NorthantsSnow]

EPIC 12z for Northants. Looking at 10cm+ by Wednesday afternoon if that came to fruition. Probably a touch conservative actually!

Indeed, for the region as a whole, t'is a very very good run. The GFS always does this however so I'm not surprised- upgrades ppn amounts nearer to the time.

Edited January 3, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[Nick L]

Some are saying the cold front coming down is slow moving! even better !

The Tuesday night one was slow moving, would have been brilliant if it didn't warm up during the night and melted it all! Would have got 2 inches here. I wouldn't have thought temperatures would be too much of a problem this week though.

[kold weather]

Tuesdays front probably will give 2-3cms I'd imagine in the Midlands, after that first front comes down though things become very messy, the fax charts show a trough digging down behind the front however the GFS profiles look more like a full blown frontal system to me...

Any decent ENE airflow is clearly to thrust showers into the Midlands, its just a matter of how strong the flow will be of course. Small changes will make a big difference to the forecast thats for sure...the great thing about this evolution however is even before the easterly airflow comes in we are likely to see several disturbances come through...