Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[tom_f123]

Frost is so thick here, looks like snow.

[Bolton67]

12z is great for the south and east of our region, not so for the north and west. We need that low over the weekend to budge around 100 miles further north!

Fingers crossed it WILL budge more north.

[Nick L]

Fingers crossed it WILL budge more north.

Yup, as per the edited part of my post this is indeed a significant improvement as it has moved further north west.

This winter has been great so far for falling snow, but not so great in terms of the depths and longevity of any lying snow, hopefully that will change.

Expecting a very cold night tonight, already -2c, as we_want_snow says I am hoping for a -8c tonight making it the coldest night so far this winter.

Absolutely STONKING UKMO for next Sat:

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?03-17

Edited January 3, 2010 by nick2702

[MKN]

To summarise the chance of snow for Midlands during the first half of next week: A chance of signifcant snowfall from Tuesday evening into Wednesday as occcluded front sinks south across the country with a the chance of snow showers following on behind. Don't expect too much snowfall and you won't be disappointed. Just expect there to be snow, which is what will occur during this period. How much snowfall, I couldn't tell you.

Really could become a notable snowfall event for the south east, particuarly for Kent where snowfalls in excess of 6" look possible.

the 12z gfs has snow across kent from +54 to +174, that would be incredible for people down there.

Well not quite all out, but 12z gfs = A PERFRECT RUN!!! Retrogession back to greenland after a week of cold and snow, which would give us a huge chance of doing the whole lot all over again

[dogs32]

12z is great for the south and east of our region, not so for the north and west. We need that low over the weekend to budge around 100 miles further north!

The 12z is an improvement though, as it has indeed moved everything further north west, continue that please GFS!

yes Tomasz wasnt sure how far inland it was going to go on Country,too early at this stage he said...

something to that phrase

[MKN]

Absolutely STONKING UKMO for next Sat:

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?03-17

quoting you there nick. I go on holiday then so after many years waiting for that kind of chart to come off its bound to happen when i go abroad. hopefully will still be cold and snowy a week after. every chance if the high retrogresss back to greenland.

[Nick L]

Something tells me that January 2010 will live long in the memory, never mind a sub-3c CET, we could easily see a sub-2c, maybe even pushing 1c.

[andy_leics22]

Definitely! I think widespread falls of 6" by the end of next week is looking probable. I don't want to go over the top with this, but it is certainly possible that some places could reach a foot of snow,

Well thats completely jinxed it then

[tom_f123]

To summarise the chance of snow for Midlands during the first half of next week: A chance of signifcant snowfall from Tuesday evening into Wednesday as occcluded front sinks south across the country with a the chance of snow showers following on behind. Don't expect too much snowfall and you won't be disappointed. Just expect there to be snow, which is what will occur during this period. How much snowfall, I couldn't tell you.

Really could become a notable snowfall event for the south east, particuarly for Kent where snowfalls in excess of 6" look possible.

This is the key in not being disappointed, don't expect bucket loads of snow because it wont happen in this region in this kinda setup ATM, any snow we do get is a bonus, frankly i'm just enjoying the freezing cold days and nights and the brilliant frosts and the cold spell hasn't even properly started yet.

With regards to the SE i would expect well in excess of 6" looking at the current outputs, places down there could easily see over a foot imo, but our time will come...

[Nick L]

Well thats completely jinxed it then

Good job you weren't posting this morning Andy, there was a discussion on the boundaries of the East Midlands :drinks:

[Bolton67]

Everything is still way off yet. lets keep our feet on the ground.

[butler_son]

Good job you weren't posting this morning Andy, there was a discussion on the boundaries of the East Midlands :drinks:

Thank God for 4 day off quiche, eh?

[cyclonic happiness]

Wow just got back from my sisters and looked at my thermometre and it say just shy of -5.c already??!!!!!

[Nick L]

Thank God for 4 day off quiche, eh?

Indeed, God bless that quiche....

[azores92]

Indeed, God bless that quiche....:lol:

the 12z ukmo shows a nicely pronounced scandinavian high, and with that deep low centred over southern europe, it would take a while to sink, which is one of the bigger threats from that kind of setup(sinking over europe and letting the southwesterlies flood in). still though, we've yet to see any significant snowfall, and it goes without saying eastern areas would take the most precip coming in from the north sea. bitter weather. i wouldnt get too excited about tuesday evening, from past experience, fronts from the north are unreliable and often weak by the time they get this far south, and the precipitation could be very hit and miss. expecting no snow is the best way to be, so you've nothing to be disappointed about if the garden is green

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Frost is so thick here, looks like snow.

Hiya mate i was in penn this morning after staying at a m8s house and woke up to the finest suger coat of snow ul ever see , then as i drove towards dudley town there was a reall dusting , quite a difference really , then again it was a lot lower down where i was , mainly sleet and very wet snow in general tbh. A bit dissapointing really !

Sorry for been off topic just wanted to point it out lol!!

[cyclonic happiness]

Latest gfs run shows the...erm southeast (spits :lol: ) is gonna get a right pasting! and no-where else.

Well that's what you'd think having read the model output thread lol!!

Bit of an upgrade for the better part of England (midlands) hopefully we'll get more upgrades nearer the time.

[jukebox]

Just a quick one to the more knowledgable if I may please? I would try and post this in the general m/o thread but as I dont live in the south east and may have a differing opinion I dont wanna get shot down in flames My new years resolution was to try and get my head around reading the charts and I,ve been sitting here today and thought I,d try and interpret the 60 hour Bracknell fax chart. Would I be correct in my thinking that over the uk that chart says that there will be an occluded front moving down the country and its within 528 dam air so it has a possibility to bring snow?? Also is the feature running through southern Scotland a trough?? Also is that a triple point low just off the south west coast and am I right in assuming that these features can bring heavy snow fall if you can manage to get underneath one?? And also as the isobars are not to tight that the winds will be quite light? Sorry I dont know how to post links to the 60hr chart as I,m a bit crap with computers lol. Thanks in advance to anyone that can answer my questionsand sorry if they are easy ones to answer but I am learning lol

[loopydreamer]

temp -0.5C

d/p -2C

[we_want_snow]

I noticed in a forecast, not sure which, that the Irish sea could also develope snow. I know the wind directions not ideal but we saw Chesire Gap streamers the other day with this direction of wind. How does this stand for the West Mids???

[Nick L]

Just a quick one to the more knowledgable if I may please? I would try and post this in the general m/o thread but as I dont live in the south east and may have a differing opinion I dont wanna get shot down in flames My new years resolution was to try and get my head around reading the charts and I,ve been sitting here today and thought I,d try and interpret the 60 hour Bracknell fax chart. Would I be correct in my thinking that over the uk that chart says that there will be an occluded front moving down the country and its within 528 dam air so it has a possibility to bring snow?? Also is the feature running through southern Scotland a trough?? Also is that a triple point low just off the south west coast and am I right in assuming that these features can bring heavy snow fall if you can manage to get underneath one?? And also as the isobars are not to tight that the winds will be quite light? Sorry I dont know how to post links to the 60hr chart as I,m a bit crap with computers lol. Thanks in advance to anyone that can answer my questionsand sorry if they are easy ones to answer but I am learning lol

This one jukebox?

http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVJ89.png

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 12z gives the SE a pasting this week. No change there then.

So far this winter in terms of snow has been dreadful. Cold wise its been good but this is getting boring if it stays like this.

[andy_leics22]

LMAO@ Nick and B_S Good job I didn't see that

[marksp]

another good day here,been out for short walk across the snow fields of North Derbyshire,great views from the hills around my home town, even took some small video clips but not sure how to load them.

-4.5 at 5pm now so how low will it go ?. Last couple of nights have been down to -5.5 and -5.1 so should easly smash that tonight. day time high of -0.9 so yet another ice day here this winter.

Snowfall looks good for the midlands this week. I follow the GFS precip charts out to t48 and t72 and there are usually quite acurate. Managed to pick out the last few snowfalls here quite well, if anything they have underdone the amount of ppn, so may get more than we think. Lots more to come for all of us.

[azores92]

Just a quick one to the more knowledgable if I may please? I would try and post this in the general m/o thread but as I dont live in the south east and may have a differing opinion I dont wanna get shot down in flames My new years resolution was to try and get my head around reading the charts and I,ve been sitting here today and thought I,d try and interpret the 60 hour Bracknell fax chart. Would I be correct in my thinking that over the uk that chart says that there will be an occluded front moving down the country and its within 528 dam air so it has a possibility to bring snow?? Also is the feature running through southern Scotland a trough?? Also is that a triple point low just off the south west coast and am I right in assuming that these features can bring heavy snow fall if you can manage to get underneath one?? And also as the isobars are not to tight that the winds will be quite light? Sorry I dont know how to post links to the 60hr chart as I,m a bit crap with computers lol. Thanks in advance to anyone that can answer my questionsand sorry if they are easy ones to answer but I am learning lol

pretty much spot on there it shows a fairly slack airflow, so the showers wont be very widespread