Scotland Cold Spell Discussion Part 13

[Big Innes Madori]

Just took a short treacherous drive down to the Firth of Forth at S.Queensferry where all those mad nutters have a dookin' on New Years Day......couldn't believe my eyes!

Aye right Mondy!

You're takin that too far noo, they're no Scottish Gulls

Big Innes

Edited January 3, 2010 by Big Innes Madori

[shuggee]

Indeed Blizzardo - cold front from the north sinking south over the whole of Scotland. -7ºC uppers in front of it with -10ºC uppers behind it. Splendid.

I'll post the NMM model charts for tomorrow night this evening when the 12Z run comes out :lol:

[Highland Snow]

Indeed Blizzardo - cold front from the north sinking south over the whole of Scotland. -7ºC uppers in front of it with -10ºC uppers behind it. Splendid.

I'll post the NMM model charts for tomorrow night this evening when the 12Z run comes out :lol:

That's encouraging Shuggee. I was very fearful that Perth was in for a repeat of rain and sleet like yesterday, but those Uppers are looking good.:lol:

Aye right Mondy!

You're takin that too far noo, they're no Scottish Gulls

Big Innes

Maybe they aren't Scottish but they sure look content enough in the Forth Big Innes. Perhaps Iceland was a tad too warm for them so they've migrated since Christmas.:lol:

[thejailender]

Just driving home from Dingwall there and the shower that was falling happened to be sleet. Although by the time I got to my house it was a few flakes of snow, but nothing heavy.

Top temperatures today though were +0.9'C. It seems funny to say but it actually felt quite mild ! Must just be feeling warmer in comparrison to the weather we've had over the last couple of weeks

[LomondSnowstorm]

Indeed Blizzardo - cold front from the north sinking south over the whole of Scotland. -7ºC uppers in front of it with -10ºC uppers behind it. Splendid.

I'll post the NMM model charts for tomorrow night this evening when the 12Z run comes out

Cold fronts are pretty good at delivering heavy precipitation, so it will be interesting to see. Also, the trough moving southwest as the flow changes to northeasterly on Tuesday morning will also be very interesting, perhaps moreso than even the hi-resolution models would suggest given that it will be enhanced greatly by north sea convection. Apologies for posting this, but I'm fairly certain the netweather data centre doesn't stock this chart

Considering that most of the precipitation is convective, which tends to be underestimated by models, and that this precipitation is for a 12 hour period, I'd say Tuesday morning could be very interesting for east central.

edit: NMM is rather annoying for those in Fife, deciding to miss us totally and have all the snow hit about 20 miles south! Oh well, I suppose these charts are likely to change slightly with time.

LS

Edited January 3, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[EastLothianSnow]

Just been out for a very agreeable lunch down at The Shore in Leith - where the snow is lying on the dock side. Very nice to see

Snow has not shifted from the pans today either so we have 'coastal snow' still too, this has been only our second ice day of this cold spell, being next to the coast has not been helping matters, maximum of -0.5 today and now back down too -2.8 as i type this. Snow still covering all surfaces. Plough came through earlier but a lot of the snow must have frozen to the road because they are still all white despite the plough coming through, i would say we have maybe 2 inches of snow on the ground at the moment.

Hoping for lots more this week, although not looking forward to the daily trips down the Edinburgh City Bypass to work if the forecasts validate

[Guest]

Indeed Blizzardo - cold front from the north sinking south over the whole of Scotland. -7ºC uppers in front of it with -10ºC uppers behind it. Splendid.

I'll post the NMM model charts for tomorrow night this evening when the 12Z run comes out

GFS 12z goes for something of the old split and miss routine for parts of the central belt when the cold front moves down:

It will be what it will be.

[shuggee]

GFS 12z goes for something of the old split and miss routine for parts of the central belt when the cold front moves down:

It will be what it will be.

Yeah I had a look at that too Robbie. Occluded fronts do that every time - but this is a cold front. From memory I can't recall how they pan out, but let's see what the NMM says later

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

That's encouraging Shuggee. I was very fearful that Perth was in for a repeat of rain and sleet like yesterday, but those Uppers are looking good.

Maybe they aren't Scottish but they sure look content enough in the Forth Big Innes. Perhaps Iceland was a tad too warm for them so they've migrated since Christmas.

When it rained for 40 days and 40 nights, what were the snowfall totals in places that received it as snow?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yeah I had a look at that too Robbie. Occluded fronts do that every time - but this is a cold front. From memory I can't recall how they pan out, but let's see what the NMM says later

The 12Z NMM:

[matt44myst]

Now then, check out the ppn coming from north :-)

http://www.sat24.com/scan

down to around -5 the noo, really cracking cold spell this is shaping up to be. so much snow, much of which has gone through at least one thaw/freeze and so may be slightly more resistant when the eventual 'spring' thaw appears. another easy ice day today, with amazing icicles and frozen water everywhere...really magic stuff. looking forward to the snow from monday night onwards and then with higher pressure (looser isobars) and hopefully slack winds from a northerly quarter the night minima are gonna be exciting towards the end of the week.

mondy: the big blob of cloud that you said was precipitation to our north, is that expected to give us snow here or will it fizzle out over the highlands? because the Meto seem to think a clear night is on the cards. Would be grateful for your opinion mate.

Cheers,

Matt

[Highland Snow]

Just been out for a very agreeable lunch down at The Shore in Leith - where the snow is lying on the dock side. Very nice to see

Did you throw a few scraps to those poor ravenous gulls shuggee.

[Cheggers]

Maybe they aren't Scottish but they sure look content enough in the Forth Big Innes. Perhaps Iceland was a tad too warm for them so they've migrated since Christmas.

They aren't, not a Maccy D's wrapper in sight!!!

Top temp today was -1.8 currently -3.4 and dropping sharply.

[shuggee]

The 12Z NMM:

They're not bad charts LS for Glasgow/Edinburgh - 3 hours of snow. Ayrshire/D&G gets pasted later too.

Did you throw a few scraps to those poor ravenous gulls shuggee.

Nope - t'was all mine!

[LomondSnowstorm]

They're not bad charts LS for Glasgow/Edinburgh - 3 hours of snow. Ayrshire/D&G gets pasted later too.

I know, I was just in an incredibly IMBY mood when I saw that chart

[Ross B]

The 12Z NMM:

Nice! I hope it pans out like that although i have my doubts.

Meto have a warning for rain/sleet and snow leading to ice...

Widespread Icy Roads Tue 5 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting Northern Ireland, parts of southwest Scotland, northwest England and North Wales on Tuesday.

Overnight rain, sleet and snow will clear southwards early Tuesday and as temperatures fall, widespread ice is likely to form on untreated roads and paths.

Issued at: 1715 Sun 3 Jan

Just been down to the River in town and its completly frozen over in places, huge icicles at the waterfalls as well. Will need to get some pics on wed when i'm off work

[Guest]

Yeah I had a look at that too Robbie. Occluded fronts do that every time - but this is a cold front. From memory I can't recall how they pan out, but let's see what the NMM says later

If I had to make a guess at what happens:

there should be a period of snow for almost the whole of Scotland as the cold front moves south. Maybe an hour of snow at most, but fairly heavy when it comes, leaving approx 2 inches. I just don't know how the mountains will affect the front.

Down to -3C at 6pm with cloud cover Now we're talking cold.

Edited January 3, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Northernlights]

Well there are half crown flakes here again snow seems to coming out of nowhere according to met office radar, just amazing!!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

If I had to make a guess at what happens:

there should be a period of snow for almost the whole of Scotland as the cold front moves south. Maybe an hour of snow at most, but fairly heavy when it comes, leaving approx 2 inches. I just don't know how the mountains will affect the front.

Down to -3C at 6pm with cloud cover Now we're talking cold.

Nice. As long as we get an hour or two of heavy snow tomorrow evening followed by some more on Tuesday morning I'll be happy.

[Guest]

Fax chart shows the cold front well clear of Scotland by midnight tomorrow:

Edit:

L.S. Just read your post above, do I sense some snow hogging developing?? I felt the same when I was out today for a walk, and couldn't help but think that a further 3 inches of snow would be just about nice. Just to cover the trees and bushes again...

Edited January 3, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Mondy]

Not unless it stalls over us

[LomondSnowstorm]

Fax chart shows the cold front well clear of Scotland by midnight tomorrow:

Edit:

L.S. Just read your post above, do I sense some snow hogging developing?? I felt the same when I was out today for a walk, and couldn't help but think that a further 3 inches of snow would be just about nice. Just to cover the trees and bushes again...

I feel really rather selfish now, as our trees are pretty much covered at the moment as well! I honestly just want Fife schools to be closed for a week or so due to snow - is that too much to ask?

[Cheggers]

Not unless it stalls over us

And the chances of that happening are?????????????????? Only had a few inches since 23rd Dec in need of more now, 8" or so of ice getting a bit of a grind.

[Mondy]

I dunno, but interaction with the mountains is gonna do something to it.

[Ross B]

In past winters that cold front would move down and give a covering of snow for areas south of the highlands (obviously more for the highlands and north) before re-invigorating south of the border and giving the southern contingent of this forum a few inches of snow. The NMM has the front pushing SE into Ayrshire so we may be lucky and get more snow (or rain) than usual due to less mountains and more sea in it's path...