Scotland Cold Spell Discussion Part 13

[LomondSnowstorm]

Cheers for the welcome guys

Very exiting week or two ahead, I am in the central belt but I have had my fair share of snow over the last couple of weeks and there is no sign of it melting away anytime soon and with the possibility of more snow tomorrow night, this is the best ever winter I can remember:D

Welcome to the thread C00kie! The other one is our resident stormlover, which is hardly surprising as he's from the Western Isles so easterlies must be a real bore! My number one piece of advice is ignore the majority of posts on the model discussion thread, especially those labelled 'upgrade/downgrade', as these are mainly from people living in and only concerned with the southeast of England. Listen to a very wise man called John Holmes though, as he is probably the most able forecaster on the thread, though Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, GlacierPoint and a few others are also worth listening to.

Anyway, I think we need to wise up on skew-t diagrams over the next day or so, as this will be the key to the amount of convection and so the amounts of snow we're likely to see over the coming days. I'll have a go at reading the JH guide to them, but if anyone else knows how to read them then I feel they could perhaps enlighten the rest of us as to what they are showing at the moment!

LS

[Argyllcraig]

But by the time it reaches here are we not expected to be within the sub 528 dam line with around -7 to -10c 850s which means it should fall as snow pretty much anywhere and everywhere it reaches. Dont think the faroes have the cold uppers yet and given they are small islands you would perhaps expect it to be more sleety. (having a guess)

[Sunny Leith]

Hi LS, still looks OK ... and although high pressure in slightly " the wrong place"/ " a bit too close" (generalising here...) can take the edge of north-sea convection, it often doesn't kill it. Sometimes the convection justs lessens to the point where its just produces intermiitent soft hail coming out of lower stratocumulus type clouds. Generally speaking an easterly from a high in that location - will still pick up enough moisture to deposit something upon landfall. Assuming many of the other factors are in place ... surface cold, dewpoints etc ... then we stll get something from it. As you say, this high may just localise any showers rather than drive them too far inland.

I come bearing Fax charts hot off the press:

A nice example of how troughs are likely to enhance precipitation during the coming days.

The 120 chart is good also, bringing in an fairly weak easterly flow for most, though perhaps still strong enough to bring snow showers a few miles inland.

I think the important think with this chart is that the high isn't sliding southeast, and the lows to the south are quite a bit stronger than those to the north, which means that the most likely outcome for the weekend onwards (from this chart) is the high moving back northwest or staying where it is, which would mean the continuation of the cold. Of course by the weekend, many of us will have become sick and tired of the snow!

The only thing that would make the outlook look better is for the precipitation tomorrow to be moved 15 miles further north between 10 and midnight on the 18Z NMM

LS

Edited January 3, 2010 by by-tor

[LomondSnowstorm]

I have relatives that live in the Faroe Islands, and was doing thr weekly phone call a short time ago. I was talking to them about the cold weather - maybe because they are all coastal there - but they have not had the snowfall that we have had. It's been cold, but not as cold as here.

I was asking them about current conditions, (as what we are expecting tomorrow is heading over them just now) and basically they never got much out of it, and what they did get was sleet, although it turned more to snow up the mountains. They also think that the temperatures rose slightly when the band hit.

So hopefully it does intensify between there and here or it could be a disappointment.

I believe that due to the blocking high up there, the uppers have been higher than here, so when the front hit, it fell as sleet. However, due to the already cold air entrenched here, and because of the even colder air behind it, then it will all fall as snow.

[Snowplough33]

Good evening all. Been out all day, but had a quike read through and it all sounds good. Lots going on and heaps of cold. Some charts that caught my eye a few pages back from LS. Lots of ENE flow, so heres hoping.

Hope we all get something from the front tomorrow, but I have seen these snow all the way down the east coast to the Sidlaw Hills and jump over Dundee, but the one at the very start of this cold spell after the short NE was not too bad.

[su rui ke]

But by the time it reaches here are we not expected to be within the sub 528 dam line with around -7 to -10c 850s which means it should fall as snow pretty much anywhere and everywhere it reaches. Dont think the faroes have the cold uppers yet and given they are small islands you would perhaps expect it to be more sleety. (having a guess)

Right - I don't think the Faroes ever get very cold for long. A bit like Shetland with less sun (in winter). It doesn't look like the most active cold front ever though. I'm looking more to the showers later in the week than to this.

Edited January 3, 2010 by su rui ke

[windy isle bernera]

yes your right were always at least 3 degrees warmer than lewis dont snow much here either we get mostly hail while mainland lewis gets snow expect the same tomorrow

[Sunny Leith]

Yup, swings and roundabouts isn't it I suppose... The Faeroes/Shetland/Orkney/Caithness can be exposed to sub-zero northerlies and whiteouts even into April. The kind of stuff we never get down here...

Its not uncommon for cold UK winters ... to be average/above average winters in Greenland/Iceland/Faeroes. No surprise that folk in The Faeroes are better off in this particular winter situation than most of us here.

Right - I don't think the Faroes ever get very cold for long. A bit like Shetland with less sun (in winter). It doesn't look like the most active cold front ever though. I'm looking more to the showers later in the week than to this.

[windy isle bernera]

dont think that the blob to the north of scotland is the front were expecting tomorrow its still getting bigger if it is then its at least 8 hours to early

[LadyPakal]

Light snow in south Aberdeen (approx sea level) just now. I'm recording a temp of -1.6.

[Snowlover2]

dont think that the blob to the north of scotland is the front were expecting tomorrow its still getting bigger if it is then its at least 8 hours to early

It does seem to be moving quite fast.

Looks like rain/sleet in Nairn

[lorenzo]

If you're out all day you've got some reading to do eh !

The models thread kicked off again, you think folk would be happy the 850 temps we have had for the last age had finally reached them.

The fax charts are crazy at the moment, much to do with me deciphering them - so much going on - especially the GH changing every 12 hours.

It just refuses to die and continues to block in style it seems like it is continually re-loading itself ?! Its amazing looking at those lows in the atlantic just knocking at the door..

Thanks to Snooz for reply earlier on ensembles.

Some interesting action on satellite just now too..

[shuggee]

Benbecula seems a little chilly even for this spell of weather according to http://www.xcweather.co.uk

[Argyllcraig]

wow thats cold

[c00kie]

Benbecula seems a little chilly even for this spell of weather according to http://www.xcweather.co.uk

-31c lol

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Benbecula seems a little chilly even for this spell of weather according to http://www.xcweather.co.uk

Even the buoys off Norfolk are only 2C!

[Snowlover2]

-31 :o

[lorenzo]

The benbecula one is genuinely regarded as the most accurate of the stations up here.. m 8

[Snooz]

*chuckle*

CLICKY

chuckled too.. naughty!!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

You know exactly what it is after you said last night, stop spamming.

:o

It's pretty simple, Scotland's a small country and we all know each other mate...

No seriously, you can't type M 8 with the letters together as it shows up as mate, mate.

So we are just talking about the Edinburgh - Bishopton motorway.

Cheers mate(not the motorway) :o

Hi RRR,

Embra to Glasgow Motorway (mate)

Big Innes.

Ah, so Embra is Edin 'Chris de' burgh?

Aye, because that's our job Ross, isn't it??

:lol:

[windy isle bernera]

Benbecula seems a little chilly even for this spell of weather according to http://www.xcweather.co.uk

hope the colds coming my way still 3.5 here with ice melt

[NorthernRab]

By the by, the Barra reading is an error - I know the vast majority of us definitely know this, just incase there is someone sitting at home having a heart attack and who is just a guest viewing this thread! It's probably some 30'C warmer

[windy isle bernera]

Cheers mate(not the motorway)

Ah, so Embra is Edin 'Chris de' burgh?

the coo looks mare intelligent

[Snowlover2]

By the by, the Barra reading is an error - I know the vast majority of us definitely know this, just incase there is someone sitting at home having a heart attack and who is just a guest viewing this thread! It's probably some 30'C warmer

aww *chuckles*

[windy isle bernera]

aww *chuckles*

IM BASKING IN THE HEAT HERE