Scotland Cold Spell Discussion Part 13

[Sunny Leith]

I dont think its wilful or deliberate incompetence on the part of the BBC/Metoffice. Rather it has exposed how difficult it is to forecast the details for the geography of a frozen ice block,sitting in a warm sea and being brushed with air from all directions this past few weeks. For many of the junior forecasters in particular this is a bit of a first-time event for them - and it shows. Although in saying that, even the experienced "Heather the weather" started by calling the impacts of the Dec 17th easterly wrong to begin with... which was surprising but it set the tone for subsequent mis-forecasting in these parts.

Best advice: use this period to get to grip with pressure charts/synoptics, radar, upper air temps and dewpoints. And stick to a forecast accuracy of 6-12-24 hours. Anything beyond that just now is conentious. Cold yes ! .. but definitely contentious. Plenty folk on here - and reading folk like John Holmes/Steve Murr on the General/Model thread - who will fill in the gaps.

[Argyllcraig]

about 1c here now and can clearly see snow falling on the hills and mountains across the loch

[Methuselah]

Believe it or not - I used to say exactly the same thing when I was in MK: the TV schedules simply do not allow enough time for sufficient detail!

Celebrity Big Brother et al??!!!

PS: Can see the front approaching!

[thejailender]

Looking at the latest radar I would say the rain/snow is less than 30 minutes away from us.

However, since our current temperature has now risen to 2.3'C I can only see it falling as rain, unless there is a suddent drop in temperatures, but it has been rising for the last couple of hours so I assume we are looking at rain shortly

edit - It has arrived a bit quicker that I thought, and it is indeed falling as rain here.. I'm only about 30 meters above sea level though

Edited January 4, 2010 by thejailender

[Highland Snow]

The temp. here is -0.4C/-1.1C but rising at a rate of 1.1C/hr. This front, if it makes it here, could well bring sleet/freezing rain which has been my fear since Saturday's non event.

[Guest]

Believe it or not - I used to say exactly the same thing when I was in MK: the TV schedules simply do not allow enough time for sufficient detail!

Celebrity Big Brother et al??!!!

PS: Can see the front approaching!

Pete, you are right about the time being limited but I have to say the point about the "binoculars" is quite correct. The angle that the UK is shown at makes Scotland look tiny, nowhere near as big as the 6:10 ratio with England it should be. Perhaps the forecast should be shown "upside down" with Scotland at the bottom in a vastly increased size; then we'd see how many English people complained about it!!!

[Highland Snow]

Dundee was 2C when I left at 13.00.

[Hairy Celt]

Looking at the latest radar I would say the rain/snow is less than 30 minutes away from us.

However, since our current temperature has now risen to 2.3'C I can only see it falling as rain, unless there is a suddent drop in temperatures, but it has been rising for the last couple of hours so I assume we are looking at rain shortly

edit - It has arrived a bit quicker that I thought, and it is indeed falling as rain here.. I'm only about 30 meters above sea level though

wonderful. 3.0/2.5 now so looks like we'll get wet too. pffffffff

[Sunny Leith]

I dont expect that Pete. Mostly because I know its impossible to be so granular.

Its the metoffice/BBC who try to play that game - they really really shoudn't - because it makes them look stupid. For instance the BBC weather website for Embra today says "Light snow at 21:00". Really ? I look forward to that !! I can also get quite different and contradictory forecasts for nearby locations in the same general area by typing in a postcode or the names of surrounding wee towns. Now I know thats a piece of nonsense - but Joe and Jean Public don't. I don't believe forecasters spend time in the minute details of whether Aberdour will have different weather from Burntisland or Dalgety Day ... but their postcode forecasts often throw up those contradictions. That can only come from some kind or automated/interpolated fudge factor algorithm - to give the impression of local and detailed accuracy.

Utter bunkum as you, I and most of us here would recognise !

How many of you could (I couldn't!) give an accurate street-by-street snow-shower prediction for the whole of the UK - in less than three minutes! :)

And, do any of you know quite how long it takes to draw-up a Fax chart?? Coz, I don't! But pipes took a while...

[Highland Snow]

Pete, you are right about the time being limited but I have to say the point about the "binoculars" is quite correct. The angle that the UK is shown at makes Scotland look tiny, nowhere near as big as the 6:10 ratio with England it should be. Perhaps the forecast should be shown "upside down" with Scotland at the bottom in a vastly increased size; then we'd see how many English people complained about it!!!

Any wonder the English are detested Worldwide.

[Sunny Leith]

If its any consolation HS, the same thing must happen in most scandinavian winters. Its not all pure snow and cold ... sometimes a brief bit of mush comes along - sleet, frozen rain etc

However since we ARE having a scandinavian-ish winter - and from the visible evidence of the past 3 weeks - most of us will hold onto snow cover regardless ! Surface tempeartures will see to that.

The temp. here is -0.4C/-1.1C but rising at a rate of 1.1C/hr. This front, if it makes it here, could well bring sleet/freezing rain which has been my fear since Saturday's non event.

[Snowplough33]

Anyway, never mind the MO, anyone got any new charts, info, thoughts on the potential NE wind, and will we, or wont we have covective showers......my favourite!!!

[Snowlover2]

thats what am waiting on SP33. Where is Ls?

[Methuselah]

Any wonder the English are detested Worldwide.:unsure:

Tha mi duilich, tha mi Sassenach??? :unsure: Can we PLEASE cut-out any ant-this that or the other???

But, I'll let your post remain, as I can see whence you come...

[Snooz]

Agree with the mixture thing, we are having our first teeny thaw today.. finally got some icicles :unsure:

We dug up some snow to try and build a giant Snowman however it's too powdery so we built a foundation and await the next phase.. the layers in the snow however were amazing, I don't think I ever remember seeing it quite this clearly, some powder, an ice level that was probably a rain/sleet layer, then some slightly more solid stuff too, with another ice layer underneath, very weird and quite amazing!

I think everywhere will see a bit of rain/sleet mix on the leading edge of this front as everyone seems to be reporting rising temps, however isn't that the same as it was the first time this all kicked off 3 weeks ago (I've forgotten already!)?

..

btw, anyone care to help explain or point me to their favourite source about Relative Humidity

[Snowlover2]

Lol Pete.

This has been added to fife council website

Today Monday 4 January Mainly dry and bright start over southern Scotland. Sleet and snow showers will become heavier in the North, edging southwards during this afternoon and affecting all areas at some point today. More snow showers in the North tonight and coastal areas further south. Further snow accumulations of 5-10cm are possible in higher, inland areas in the north. Dry, clear and very cold elsewhere. Freshening north or northwesterly winds. General overnight minimum temperatures of -9C. Tuesday 5th Jan Snow showers will affect northern and eastern Scotland with further significant accumulations expected. More southern and western areas will be drier but still very cold everywhere. There will be drifting of the snow in the moderate or fresh northerly winds. Wednesday 6th Jan Sunny/clear spells and further snow showers, heavy at times across the north and east of Scotland. Fewer showers in the southwest. Fresh northerly winds again causing drifting of the lying snow. Outlook: Current indications are that the cold spell is likely to continue for at least the next week to ten days. High pressure will bring a good deal of dry weather later this week and early next week, however, snow showers are likely to return to eastern areas during next week. Please refer to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather for further information about the weather in other areas of Scotland and the UK.

And the METO have updated their weather warnings.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[Mondy]

Hasn't got above freezing today. Managed to take some snow/ice footage from my mobile phone when on my round today, will try upload later once I've thawed out :unsure:

Haven't even looked at sat pix or charts - where's that bloody front?

Edited January 4, 2010 by Mondy

[Hairy Celt]

Front's here: 2.7/0.8, moderate sleet, rain and snow from the west. Ugh.

[Snowplough33]

Hasn't got above freezing today. Managed to take some snow/ice footage from my mobile phone when on my round today, will try upload later once I've thawed out

Haven't even looked at sat pix or charts - where's that bloody front?

Barely into the North, and most are reporting rain............... and dont mention the MO!!

Edited January 4, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Highland Snow]

New METO Warning!:unsure:

Local areas affected Warning type Valid from Valid to Central, Tayside & Fife: Angus Clackmannanshire Dundee Falkirk Fife Perth + Kinross Stirling Widespread Icy Roads 1630 Mon 4 1200 Tue 5 Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, spreading south across Scotland this afternoon will fall onto already frozen surfaces giving widespread icy roads and pavements. The precipitation will clear away south this evening leaving a cold night with a widespread frost and occasional snow showers, giving some further, mainly slight accumulations of snow.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Scotland for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1430 Mon 4 Jan

[Snowlover2]

Its still up north Mondy. Check out camera Camera 946 - Aultguish A835 East looking nice :unsure:

[Mondy]

Widespread Icy Roads

I don't need the goddamn Met O to tell me that :unsure:

[Methuselah]

Slizzle has arrived!

[Argyllcraig]

Gotta drive to ullapool tonight ....... oh yikes look at Aultguish indeed

[thejailender]

We had a spell of big flakes of snow hidden withint he rain, but it has got a lot lighter, and is now just rain.

Looking at the radar though, it does seem to be falling as snow anywhere more than a mile inland. The fact that most comminities up this way are built along the coast will be the reason we are nearly all reporting rain, I guess when it gets further south where more communities are away fromt he sea, then these will get hit with snow.