General Model Output Discussion

[anvilhead]

not looking too bad for the west country at the mo going on the latest gfs - the front looses intensity as it passes here (Cirencester), but Lift seems to increase and pep things up as it heads south - I'd imagine the SW peninsula will get a good covering from this ...

sam

[TEITS]

Puzzling 06Z to be honest. Im not sure if its picking up a new trend with regards to pushing the E,lys further S or its just having a wobble. I remember before the cold spell began in Dec the GFS had a 24hr spell of wobbles before upgrading the E,ly again. This I seem to remember didn't occur until +72. I remember saying at the time how following the cold spell would of been easier without access to the GFS!

Obviously its still very cold output but I would prefer to see these E,lys push back N again.

[snowking]

Puzzling 06Z to be honest. Im not sure if its picking up a new trend with regards to pushing the E,lys further S or its just having a wobble. I remember before the cold spell began in Dec the GFS had a 24hr spell of wobbles before upgrading the E,ly again. This I seem to remember didn't occur until +72. I remember saying at the time how following the cold spell would of been easier without access to the GFS!

Obviously its still very cold output but I would prefer to see these E,lys push back N again.

Yep very much what i referred to a short while ago in this thread, though the worrying thing for me is that the overnight UKMO FAX's have reverted to a flow more from the north of east

Really hoping and praying its a wobble, because something along the lines of yesterdays 12z would have been terrific for nearly all of england and wales

SK

[Lewis]

Puzzling 06Z to be honest. Im not sure if its picking up a new trend with regards to pushing the E,lys further S or its just having a wobble. I remember before the cold spell began in Dec the GFS had a 24hr spell of wobbles before upgrading the E,ly again. This I seem to remember didn't occur until +72. I remember saying at the time how following the cold spell would of been easier without access to the GFS!

Obviously its still very cold output but I would prefer to see these E,lys push back N again.

Yeah but you have to admit the gfs is showing very tasteful scenarios towards the end of the week, if only that shunted a little further North come Sunday, well it would be amazing. If it does not we will get some very very severe over night temps, and during the day temps will be well below freezing, i'll be happy either way.

As they say, the longer you have sustained cold, the better the chances are for snow, whether it be from the easterly heading north and feeding in showers, or a Breakdown from the South or the West.

I expect the easterly to be much further North come the 12z.

lewis

[bluearmy]

Puzzling 06Z to be honest. Im not sure if its picking up a new trend with regards to pushing the E,lys further S or its just having a wobble. I remember before the cold spell began in Dec the GFS had a 24hr spell of wobbles before upgrading the E,ly again. This I seem to remember didn't occur until +72. I remember saying at the time how following the cold spell would of been easier without access to the GFS!

Obviously its still very cold output but I would prefer to see these E,lys push back N again.

TEITS, latest NAE shows a fair old dumping getting going tomorrow evening lincs, east notts, leics, south east yorks. this area could change a little but i think lincs pretty certain to be difficult come wed am.

also, the interaction between the devloping heights and the euro trough are bound to be uncertain at this range. it looks as though the trough will be too far east at the moment but there is time for this to change still. would have thought tomorrow's 12z's will be our last chance on this. if there is x model agreement at this point, we have to accept that the block will be sitting too far south (as per TWS's original musings)

Edited January 4, 2010 by bluearmy

[Roadrunner]

Puzzling 06Z to be honest. Im not sure if its picking up a new trend with regards to pushing the E,lys further S or its just having a wobble. I remember before the cold spell began in Dec the GFS had a 24hr spell of wobbles before upgrading the E,ly again. This I seem to remember didn't occur until +72. I remember saying at the time how following the cold spell would of been easier without access to the GFS!

Obviously its still very cold output but I would prefer to see these E,lys push back N again.

Dave dont you think though that the 12z has been the most consistent set of runs thus far this winter?

[Eugene]

Some bonechillingly cold mins on GFS 06Z and almost -20C looks like it could be reached outside of the highlands if that run came off

[Duncan McAlister]

Eek, GFS 06z brings the HP and SW'lies awfully far east for next week, not good for us in Western Scotland.

[TEITS]

Yep very much what i referred to a short while ago in this thread, though the worrying thing for me is that the overnight UKMO FAX's have reverted to a flow more from the north of east

Really hoping and praying its a wobble, because something along the lines of yesterdays 12z would have been terrific for nearly all of england and wales

SK

A NE/NNE,ly was always likely at first based on the model output I have seen recently.

This is reminding me very much of what happened before xmas. Personally aslong as the UKMO/ECM/GEM continue with the same output then I reckon the GFS will revert back to the E,lys.

If anyone can't remember what happened before xmas I will remind everyone. The GFS had a 24hr wobble and then the ECM 12Z followed with dreadful output. However the next day the ECM returned to normal i.e blocking and then finally the GFS reverted back to its previous output. During this period the models indicated a very slack E,ly and it wasn't until the cold spell came with +72 that the E,ly upgraded.

Obviously this doesn't mean it will happen again but its worth remembering. I will say though that members looking for the snowstorm at the weekend should forget about it.

[swilliam]

Not much sign of undercutting at T204 on this run. The Atlantic low is too far North, too deep and poorly aligned.

[Megamoonflake]

TEITS, latest NAE shows a fair old dumping getting going tomorrow evening lincs, east notts, leics, south east yorks. this area could change a little but i think lincs pretty certain to be difficult come wed am.

The 06Z NAE is trickling in now, I don't like the look of the snow/rain prediction at 24hours. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912271800&VAR=prty&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

[southbank]

Puzzling 06Z to be honest. Im not sure if its picking up a new trend with regards to pushing the E,lys further S or its just having a wobble. I remember before the cold spell began in Dec the GFS had a 24hr spell of wobbles before upgrading the E,ly again. This I seem to remember didn't occur until +72. I remember saying at the time how following the cold spell would of been easier without access to the GFS!

Obviously its still very cold output but I would prefer to see these E,lys push back N again.

agreed it does look puzzling , be interesting to see the meto/ecm updates later . Although i prefer comparing the 12z like for like . Im wondering if the models are still trying to work out where that high will form and we may see more changes before we know exactly how this weekend weather will pan out . exciting times and think this week may be a nightmare to pin down exact trend

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png

No worries over GFS 06Z it gets there in the end, stunning run really unless very cold weather isnt your thing

[scotto]

Could someone please let me know where I can find the met offices NAE model, as I hear it is showing good thins for the east midlands tomorrow morning. Thanks

[Southender]

The 06Z NAE is trickling in now, I don't like the look of the snow/rain prediction at 24hours. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912271800&VAR=prty&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Hmmm.

00z

06z

Whats going on here then? Not a spec of snow on the 06z run.

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[swilliam]

A NE/NNE,ly was always likely at first based on the model output I have seen recently.

This is reminding me very much of what happened before xmas. Personally aslong as the UKMO/ECM/GEM continue with the same output then I reckon the GFS will revert back to the E,lys.

If anyone can't remember what happened before xmas I will remind everyone. The GFS had a 24hr wobble and then the ECM 12Z followed with dreadful output. However the next day the ECM returned to normal i.e blocking and then finally the GFS reverted back to its previous output. During this period the models indicated a very slack E,ly and it wasn't until the cold spell came with +72 that the E,ly upgraded.

Obviously this doesn't mean it will happen again but its worth remembering. I will say though that members looking for the snowstorm at the weekend should forget about it.

The thing though TEITS is with the pre-Xmas Easterly this was being determined by the position of short wave moving down the North Sea - where it it went and how it was precisely aligned. In this case we are looking at the low over the med - how far North it is, what is the alignment and does it engage with the upper cold pool that will be over us (the most important ingredient I think). So it could upgrade - especially if the GFS is being too progressive moving the low East before coming North but I think this will need to be a real upgrade rather than an option - if you see what I mean!

[Shunter]

Yeah but you have to admit the gfs is showing very tasteful scenarios towards the end of the week, if only that shunted a little further North come Sunday, well it would be amazing. If it does not we will get some very very severe over night temps, and during the day temps will be well below freezing, i'll be happy either way.

As they say, the longer you have sustained cold, the better the chances are for snow, whether it be from the easterly heading north and feeding in showers, or a Breakdown from the South or the West.

I expect the easterly to be much further North come the 12z.

lewis

We've had an abundance of "tasteful scenario's" from all the models in the past two weeks. Apart from Scotland there has not been really significant snowfall, with most forecasts either downgrading precipitation or marginalising temperatues the nearer time approaches.

Wonderful cold synoptics yes, but little else from this spell to date apart from showers.

[Noshowsnow]

A NE/NNE,ly was always likely at first based on the model output I have seen recently.

This is reminding me very much of what happened before xmas. Personally aslong as the UKMO/ECM/GEM continue with the same output then I reckon the GFS will revert back to the E,lys.

If anyone can't remember what happened before xmas I will remind everyone. The GFS had a 24hr wobble and then the ECM 12Z followed with dreadful output. However the next day the ECM returned to normal i.e blocking and then finally the GFS reverted back to its previous output. During this period the models indicated a very slack E,ly and it wasn't until the cold spell came with +72 that the E,ly upgraded.

Obviously this doesn't mean it will happen again but its worth remembering. I will say though that members looking for the snowstorm at the weekend should forget about it.

My first post on here, I've been watching for a while with some interest. Sadly I have to agree with you about the snowstorm scenario at the weekend. I had a feeling the models would begin to show the front pushing south. It now looks like we are in for 8 or 9 days of cold weather, with possibly a few showers along the way.

[TEITS]

Could someone please let me know where I can find the met offices NAE model, as I hear it is showing good thins for the east midlands tomorrow morning. Thanks

Here we go.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&HH=48&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Certainly is looking tasty for Lincs especially. Damn frustrating for me though as im just on the edge of the heaviest precip. Still being so close means it could change in my favour.

[scotto]

I managed to find the NAE and luckily by 12 noon it is showing pretty much all snow covering the country compared to the 6am version.

[Just Before Dawn]

The 06Z NAE is trickling in now, I don't like the look of the snow/rain prediction at 24hours. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912271800&VAR=prty&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Net Weather Extra's NMM for the same time looks fine to me - mainly snow for most as the front moves south - perhaps a wintery mix or rain right on the coast until later tomorrow morning, but don't really see a problem to be honest, unless I'm missing something.

[snowking]

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/04/basis06/ukuk/prty/10010518_0406.gif

Im guessing thats an upgrade to the wrap round front

Very nice

SK

[Tom D]

The 00/06z GFS runs - I wouldn't worry that it isn't showing the easterly it has previously been showing, by this evening it may be there again.

The ECM, GEM and to a lesser extent the UKMO all came into agreement that the low would be further north and west over Europe with the High the same, thus bringing an easterly to England and possibly Scotland depending on how much it changes.

The other scenario is that the GEM will go back to what it has said all along (which is similar to the GFS 00/06z runs) and the 12z ECM will show the same, which is the high building over the UK.

I seem to recall the GEM calling previous scenarios very well whilst the GFS played catch up.

[TEITS]

I will add that for the medium term the trend remains excellent.

Have you noticed on the GFS that despite different synoptics in the short term the trend in the medium term remains the same i.e blocking. This can be seen on other models also.

GEM ensemble mean.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-21-1-192.png

ECM mean drops into +192 to +240.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

If I was going to make a forecast for the next 2 weeks I would say cold, snowy this week. During the following week remaining cold but with less snowfall. Beyond and that depends if the HP does move to Greenland.

However for the short term im just focussing on Tues/Wed.

[Shunter]

Hmmm.

00z

06z

Whats going on here then? Not a spec of snow on the 06z run.

They've run out of pink ink !!

This is not reflective of projected DAM & 850's which show snow for the mainland of UK. Maybe one of the senior forecasters here would like to pass comment on this projection ???