East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Ocean Transit]

OT, Alex Deakin is on Mastermind at 8pm on BBC1

[donna-m]

snowing nicely here

temp dropping 0.3c now

[Tn9]

Met Office being generous the last few days by only delaying radar data by 6 minutes! 19:00 image already out for MO customers!

Colchester/Ipswich looks nice at da mo

Are the met office privately or publicly funded?or bit of both?because if the government hand them a wad of our taxes,then thats not generous thats taking the micky (sorry)

Edited January 7, 2010 by TN9

[Essexgooner]

Lol Yep

Well was not expecting the Low to Pirouette in the Southern North Sea like it has, hard to say about how long the Streamers will last as it looks pretty weak to me atm.

The Low Pressure must be Female So many mood swings and changes of direction today

BTW To all our lovely Female Followers I am of course joking before you put me on Ignore as well!

lol...... nothing happening here at the moment, feel a shower is approaching though

[chilly milly]

Lol Yep

Well was not expecting the Low to Pirouette in the Southern North Sea like it has, hard to say about how long the Streamers will last as it looks pretty weak to me atm.

The Low Pressure must be Female So many mood swings and changes of direction today

BTW To all our lovely Female Followers I am of course joking before you put me on Ignore as well!

:o I'm shocked to the core Paul. We don't have mood swings, only when it doesn't snow when we want but of course I'm not fussed if it snows or not, Except on Thursdays, it really bothers me on Thursdays.

Currently -1c here. Nice and chilly.

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

What kind of snowfall depths are we talking about for Sunday/Monday on average?

Anyone care to make a prediction?

Edited January 7, 2010 by maxiboy

[Paul Ashford-Kent]

Wow, someone just hit the stop button on the snow in Ashford - from heavy snow to clear skies.

[Snowydays]

Hi guys is it going to snow on saturday in west Kent and into the night ?? Need to know urgently,thanks

[Downpour]

OT, Alex Deakin is on Mastermind at 8pm on BBC1

What's his chosen subject? Epic Mild Spells In UK Winters Since The War?

[chilly milly]

No school for the kids today, but work for their dad. Still, nice to know that they have me in their thoughts....

Oh that is really cool.

You definitely have more snow than us. We can see our patio now.

[Jason H]

Yes!

[Baynesey (snow chaser)]

well just outside canterbury in sturry, we have moderate snow.... dunno what all the fuss is about lol!!

[Southender]

cheers for the heads up shoebury clan. Heavy snow now, huge flakes!

[Iceni]

Ho ho. I'm sure they will forgive you (the very few of them that there are!)

More than you'd think… for example I was pm'd by someone who thought I was (wait for it) Stephen Fry… didn't know whether to laugh or cry. I'm just a boring housewife who gave up on the rat race a few years ago.

PS Paul. We'd forgive you anything, you founded this marvelous site which has given me hours (and several sleepness nights) of interest for the past 18 months.

[finny]

after a brief increase in temps they are starting to drop away again quite quickly on east kent coast

[hire17]

Short-lived shower in Norwich which managed to bury my last cigarette butt. Looking back at the radar, it popped up from nowhere after the air mass hit the coast, then shot through on a NE track. Following small clouds look like they are on a conveyor, more could pop up at any time I would think

After lurking on winter model threads for 6(?) years since thundersnow in Salisbury, I've learnt more in three weeks than at any time thanks to the knowledge of the guys in this region

[blackprince]

well just outside canterbury in sturry, we have moderate snow.... dunno what all the fuss is about lol!!

Hi What side od Canterbury?

Sorry about miss type then I spotted Sturry

Edited January 7, 2010 by blackprince

[Blackie]

Just about to say it must be snowing in shoebury by now, hopefully it will hit southend soon, will be interesting to see how longs it lasts in shoebury.

Sadly just a few minutes

[Essexgooner]

cheers for the heads up shoebury clan. Heavy snow now, huge flakes!

Got nothing here yet, I must be to far north, lol

[StLuke]

cheers for the heads up shoebury clan. Heavy snow now, huge flakes!

Here we go again the heavy snow transfers from shoebury to leigh and somehow dodges southend!!

[Paul Ashford-Kent]

M20 Jct 9 Ashford (I've traveled on this stretch a few times today and its very very well gritted)

Edited January 7, 2010 by Paul Ashford-Kent

[Glideslope]

Evening folks,

Nothing here atm, NW radar has some nice looking showers up the coast aways, hope they swing down here.

regards,

Steve ( Leigh-on-Sea )

[Me & angel fiance]

was busy working and popped back to check the radar after a few hours gap to see great big blob over us, and flew to the window. Seems to have stopped again now. Glad its made it over to you lot in Leigh and Southend and hoping more to come

[Downpour]

More than you'd think… for example I was pm'd by someone who thought I was (wait for it) Stephen Fry… didn't know whether to laugh or cry. I'm just a boring housewife who gave up on the rat race a few years ago.

PS Paul. We'd forgive you anything, you founded this marvelous site which has given me hours (and several sleepness nights) of interest for the past 18 months.

Good to hear from you. My impression is that the vast majority of weather geeks are blokes!

[Paul Sherman]

Another Excellent Update

19Z Update

UK Remains in a firmly blocked scenario this evening with a major polar trough extension stretching from the Arctic circle to Iberia. An Omega block of high pressure persists in the Atlantic effectively blocking Atlantic systems from moving towards the UK. Major North Atlantic Jet is way south nr 40N , where it will remain for the next several days. The Atlantic ridge disrupting over the next 36hrs and developing a cutoff high nr the Faeroes with a surface inflexion lying from the Faeroes to Scandinavia. The assoc deep layer trough will perform a complex disruption proces with a deep largely cutoff vortex forming over the Western Med with a trough extending NW towards the UK. a filament of vorticity and a NE Jet Streak coming SW to enhance this block with a new centre forming over NW FRance and heading WNW on Sunday and Monday... High pressure becoming anchored over Scandinavia with time. A bitterly cold easterly wind is likely to affect the UK over the weekend making it feel very raw. However with more cloud around the extreme overnight lows will become confined to Scotland.

Discussion

The North Sea vortex has come SW and is currently filling nr SE Kent. SHowers are continuing to affect areas largely east of the Meridian with some heavy ones coming into Yorks and Kent at present - 2-5cm in places overnight. Winds mostly offshore across London and the SE at present, however the situation over the next 24hrs becomes more straightforward with a ENE wind becoming established and becoming quite strong with a biting wind chill developing across the South and SE. This wind allowing North Sea showers to come further inland across the SE, Winds allowing some weak ones to get as far as 1W in the Midlands and CS England, further minor accumulations in places.

Temps are going to become very low in places tonight, though temps in the SE more dependent on cloud and wind than last night - hence likely to be higher than last night. However across Scotland and the North of England winds are very light and temps are plunging. Temps -14C to -18C possible across Scotland tonight. Whether the Magic Media -20C is breached is another question.

Saturday sees further Snow showers spreading inland across Central and Southern Parts giving another cm in places but more likely a dusting. The Key theme for Sat is the strong ENE winds and increasing cloud cover giving lots of Snow grains and light snow showers. It will feel bitterly cold in the East and South with the wind. Sunnier further north, but bitterly cold.

We still have problems on Sunday and Monday. The process which develops the potential snow is not straightforward, it seems to relate to an upper air disturbance forming over N France and drifting west, at the same time moisture at 700mbs or so drifts west assoc with frontal activity currently developing in assoc with the Mediterranean low pressure system, the developing upper level trough and low enhances this as it moves West over the South of England and N France. The Questions are , How extensive, How much and How far north... The 12Z GFS is less keen (as it generally has been) on much snow developing it has 1-4cm generally between 00Z sunday and 12Z monday across parts of England and Wales (excl the snow showers in the SE tomorrow) a few spots seeing a little more. However both the UKMO GM and the ECM continue to produce more activity, UKMO having 5-7cm developing by 12Z Monday from East Wales down to CS England and Wessex. ECM has a few spots with even higher totals. Therefore confidence on this aspect remains quite low. Winds easing in the south by Monday.

Into the Middle of next week - there is good agreement on low pressure moving NE towards Ireland and High pressure trenched in over Scandinavia with a very cold low level airmass in place across Britain and much of Northern Europe. The 12Z GFS breaks this down easily, however its 06Z run didnt and frankly is all over the place with its ensemble after the 13th. The UKMO bring a front into ther SW and then shear it SE but this produces more snow in the SW, Wales and Wessex with another 5cm in places by T+144. The ECM doesnt get precip much further than the SW before the Scandi High intensifies to over 1040mbs and infact has a 1050mb centre over Sweden by T+240, a easterly / COntinental flow persists across the UK.

The ECM guidance remains largely consistent along with its ensemble. It appears to be performing really quite well at the moment and I will be interested in seeing its performance once its resolution is increased even more (to 16KM) at the end of Jan. It remains the clear leader in last 2 weeks performance stats

So looking likely to stay Cold with some sort of Mild/Cold battle at some stage next week, more Models have the Cold Winning and strengthening the block atm

Paul S