Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Rob W]

Temperature here is hovering at or around freezing, at the moment, with some cloud cover.

[Lion]

we have the startings of a light snow fall here, just the odd flake every now and again. A little bit of a thaw but not much, only the stuff on the tops of walls and fences is starting to thaw.

[Cal]

To add to the complicated set up, the air has got very much drier here over the last hour or so , who'd want to be a forecaster in these situations, must be a mare for them :lol: .

[shawng]

raining here and thawing quite quickly

[sunny scunny]

To add to the complicated set up, the air has got very much drier here over the last hour or so , who'd want to be a forecaster in these situations, must be a mare for them :lol: .

It's disappointing about the thaw taking place, but we've done very well for snow so far this winter

[Cal]

It's disappointing about the thaw taking place, but we've done very well for snow so far this winter :lol:

Yes it's been a fantastic spell of weather over the last few weeks , the best for many a year, and looking at the models whilst it may warm up a bit over the next couple of days it's looking like we maintain a continental feed throughout the runs.

[sunny scunny]

Yes it's been a fantastic spell of weather over the last few weeks , the best for many a year, and looking at the models whilst it may warm up a bit over the next couple of days it's looking like we maintain a continental feed throughout the runs.

Yeah it's been great mate.In the run up to xmas there was snow on the ground for just over an week, and there's also been snow on the ground since the very 1st minute of 2010

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

The bbc forecasts have reverted back to what I was dreading this morning, rain for the LINCOLNSHIRE coast, typical really but we have had two weeks of snow cover between december and now so shouldn't really complain. We have had a thaw over night, still plenty on grass, road etc but definate signs of a thaw now. Radar is showing rain/snow and the dew point is currently just below freezing with air temp of 3 degrees. I'm hoping for a bit of snow but I think I might be pushing my luck. Good luck for those further west.

[The PIT]

Yes unexpected warm up and last nights forecast going tits up shows that the unexpected can still happen at short notice. Still the odd flurry of snow here but surprising how warm above freezing can feel. Doesn't feel cold at all here. So if anything comes in tonight it's a question of dew point watching. Could well end up being NO rather than Snow.

[arnott]

Well its my birthday today and i went to bed happy last night with my gf after watching the rob mclwee's forecast which was for snow becoming persistant tonight and a proper blizzard over the pennines. I got into bed and thought for once please can the forecast not be downgraded esp with it being my bday today but looks whts happened- the expected and with no sign of a thaw yesterday it now seems to be thawing qickly

[johnholmes]

I find some of the comments on this regional thread and the model thread pretty amusing.

What we have this morning was correctly predicted about 5 days ago. The deep cold going and being replaced by +ve daytime temperatures, slight precip and that of sleet or at best wet snow, frost unlikely after late Saturday evening.

What have we got-precisely that-so why the consternation?

I've plotted outputs from Extra and NMM daily and its not done at all badly-it has failed to get the minimum values I've had but other than that its done okay.

I suggest a closer and more objective look at the models for some people and an acceptance that the various models will show slightly different end solutions. The trick is being objective and plotting a 'middle' path. That was there is less chance of thinking something is going to happen when the reality is its not going to.

[arnott]

I find some of the comments on this regional thread and the model thread pretty amusing.

What we have this morning was correctly predicted about 5 days ago. The deep cold going and being replaced by +ve daytime temperatures, slight precip and that of sleet or at best wet snow, frost unlikely after late Saturday evening.

What have we got-precisely that-so why the consternation?

I've plotted outputs from Extra and NMM daily and its not done at all badly-it has failed to get the minimum values I've had but other than that its done okay.

I suggest a closer and more objective look at the models for some people and an acceptance that the various models will show slightly different end solutions. The trick is being objective and plotting a 'middle' path. That was there is less chance of thinking something is going to happen when the reality is its not going to.

thts not entirely true. today was 0- -1c tops 2mrw 2c but with added cover n they hadnt gone past then

[Harsh Climate]

I find some of the comments on this regional thread and the model thread pretty amusing.

What we have this morning was correctly predicted about 5 days ago. The deep cold going and being replaced by +ve daytime temperatures, slight precip and that of sleet or at best wet snow, frost unlikely after late Saturday evening.

What have we got-precisely that-so why the consternation?

I've plotted outputs from Extra and NMM daily and its not done at all badly-it has failed to get the minimum values I've had but other than that its done okay.

I suggest a closer and more objective look at the models for some people and an acceptance that the various models will show slightly different end solutions. The trick is being objective and plotting a 'middle' path. That was there is less chance of thinking something is going to happen when the reality is its not going to.

This weather was not correctly predicted 5 days ago at all . The bbc and met office have rarely gone further than 3 days.

Only untill today have they said that a return to slightly milder weather is now likely next week (bbc forecasts). When most of us on here have known that for days...

This has been a poor last 24 hours atleast from the bbc/met office and people have a right to post their annoyance at this. There forecast for the south east yesterday was a JOKE. It looks like their warning last night for heavy snow further north tonight is also going the way of the pear.

Dissapointing for all on here but I new we had to get to this morning with things still firmed up, before Id get really excited..

[The PIT]

Got to admit I was surprised by the forecasts yesterday and the day before keeping temps at freezing or just below when on Wednesday they were showing 2C or 3c. They did actuallyy move the higher temps back to Monday. So I'm not surprised people have been confused by it.

The band of prec coming across the north sea is weakening at the moment. Suggests to me just light snow and nothing major but things change and can change rapidly.

[johnholmes]

This weather was not correctly predicted 5 days ago at all . The bbc and met office have rarely gone further than 3 days.

I was referring to what GFS/Extra has been showing. I've plotted its values from 5 days out and its pretty accurate believe me for my part of the world.

The bitter cold was predicted to disappear over this weekend, the last marked frost being the early hours of last evening. 5 days out please believe me. I've been in this business for over 40 years and find no point in 'manufacturing' comments. I forecast as I assess from the data available-always have.

I did a voice over video on Friday evening for the Doncaster area, I do one 2x weekly, and may I ask that you listen to it to see whether my assessment of what was going to happen is not close to what seems to be happening now and into the start of next week.

www.johnholmes-weather.co.uk

go to Forecasts and down towards the bottom click on the video link and watch the charts I talk over.

[Will storm]

Its just started snowing lightly with a temp of 2.5c and dew of 0.1 :) Complete surprise

[Lady Macbeth]

Well its my birthday today and i went to bed happy last night with my gf after watching the rob mclwee's forecast which was for snow becoming persistant tonight and a proper blizzard over the pennines. I got into bed and thought for once please can the forecast not be downgraded esp with it being my bday today but looks whts happened- the expected and with no sign of a thaw yesterday it now seems to be thawing qickly

Happy Birthday Arnott

Don't let the weather ruin your day - there's absolutely nothing you can do about it.

[Richie V]

2.08C and a gentle thaw here. I'm glad really Its starting to cost me a fourtune.

[Cal]

Very light snow grains falling here , was expecting the really light stuff to be drizzle but i ain't complaining!!

[Harsh Climate]

I was referring to what GFS/Extra has been showing. I've plotted its values from 5 days out and its pretty accurate believe me for my part of the world.

The bitter cold was predicted to disappear over this weekend, the last marked frost being the early hours of last evening. 5 days out please believe me. I've been in this business for over 40 years and find no point in 'manufacturing' comments. I forecast as I assess from the data available-always have.

Ok fair point, I thought you was reffering to the bbc/met office.

Yes it has become pretty clear on the gfs, I said the other day that precipitation would be wetter towards the coast, A little suprised that the temperature has allready rose to 1.5C here though..

I think the precipitation is dying/not so heavy across the north sea at the moment due to lack of CAA, but hopefully the precipitation later will pep up towards the pennines as oragraphic forcing comes into play.

[Mark Bayley]

Snow thaw here to! Temp at 2c and a strong but cold easterly wind. I can't see this snow going fast though!

[Harsh Climate]

Well its my birthday today and i went to bed happy last night with my gf after watching the rob mclwee's forecast which was for snow becoming persistant tonight and a proper blizzard over the pennines. I got into bed and thought for once please can the forecast not be downgraded esp with it being my bday today but looks whts happened- the expected and with no sign of a thaw yesterday it now seems to be thawing qickly

Happy birthday mate, at the end of the day no matter what happens this has been a cracking cold spell and you will have still seen a couple of mod/heavy snowfalls This downgrade doesnt suprise me at all, the bbc forecasts are pretty poor in these nowcasting situations.

[Lewis]

Morning all,

4.1c here with a dew of 1c, a pretty rapid thaw around these parts, still got a deep covering, but it's very easy to the eye noticing the thaw.

BBC gone back to rain. For a lot of areas now.

looking at the current temps and dews around the U.K, it's looking pretty marginal for everyone lol.

[sunny scunny]

Very light snow here a short while ago, which surprised me as i was only expecting light rain today.

[woldsowl]

I was referring to what GFS/Extra has been showing. I've plotted its values from 5 days out and its pretty accurate believe me for my part of the world.

The bitter cold was predicted to disappear over this weekend, the last marked frost being the early hours of last evening. 5 days out please believe me. I've been in this business for over 40 years and find no point in 'manufacturing' comments. I forecast as I assess from the data available-always have.

I did a voice over video on Friday evening for the Doncaster area, I do one 2x weekly, and may I ask that you listen to it to see whether my assessment of what was going to happen is not close to what seems to be happening now and into the start of next week.

www.johnholmes-weather.co.uk

go to Forecasts and down towards the bottom click on the video link and watch the charts I talk over.

John. This is not a criticism as everyone on here appreciates your input and valuable advice and not least learning points.

However, forecasts since yesterday have been misleading and even last night when temps were on the rise BBC forecasts were talking about -5's or so.

I'll also refer you to your post on the model thread yesterday evening, when you talked about blizzards even in the South over the next couple of days, do you still stand by this one?

Overall, people put their faith in MO/BBC outputs because many of us are not proficient enough to interpret what's going on, so when they say, cold, sub-zero, 15/20 cms etc, when things go wrong it is quite disappointing.

For me, although I'd like to set more records here, I've got a job to do, which means getting around Northern England in particular, so the sooner this ends, the better.

Thanks for your input, I'm sure we'll all get better at interpreting the signs.